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ROG has one company in Russia, Rusmolco , cost of investment should be S$400m ?
In the 2022 AGM Olam answered a question about the Russia Ukraine war saying that its direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine combined was only 2.7% of group invested capital at the time. I have copied the link here https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/20Apr2022_Olam%20Group_AGM_QA_FINAL.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=713613
The invested capital of Olam today is bigger than it was in 2021 so 2.7% at the time implies 2.0% today.
This figure includes assets within both Russia and Ukraine that is held by Olam Agri, which as of now is no longer part of Olam. So, stripping that away and the proportion of the figure that relates to Ukraine, the invested capital that Olam has in Russia is not material.
The invested capital of Olam today is bigger than it was in 2021 so 2.7% at the time implies 2.0% today.
This figure includes assets within both Russia and Ukraine that is held by Olam Agri, which as of now is no longer part of Olam. So, stripping that away and the proportion of the figure that relates to Ukraine, the invested capital that Olam has in Russia is not material.
you are sooo wrong! its debt load is not exclusively working capital issue, but also ROG useless businesses in gabon and ruZZia.
Olaim is desperate by selling its cash-generating biz (Olam Agri) to pay down the the billions in debt of ORG (olam remaining group).
this is what happens when you invest hundreds of millions of SGD in ruZZia milk biz LOL
keep paying russian salaries with good sgd, while russian economy and its consumers go down the tube.
dydd
Olaim is desperate by selling its cash-generating biz (Olam Agri) to pay down the the billions in debt of ORG (olam remaining group).
this is what happens when you invest hundreds of millions of SGD in ruZZia milk biz LOL
keep paying russian salaries with good sgd, while russian economy and its consumers go down the tube.
dydd
I disagree with the idea that COVID had a fundamental impact on the business case of Olam. Both from my own knowledge of the business and also looking at the financials. The latter shows COVID had an impact for 1 year which was 2020, and by 2021 profitability had recovered. The debt Olam carries today primarily reflects the increase in working capital as a result of concurrently rising cocoa and coffee prices which really accelerated in 2024, peaked in 2025 and this year is coming back down.
More generally, the point I was making with Temasek and Mitsubishi are these are two companies that did significant diligence before buying in, have a good understanding of materials trading, and also have the influence to improve the value of Olam through the operations of their own businesses. They paid $2.50ish ten years ago probably with a business plan that projecting 10 years out probably would have implied a price today of say $6.50 if they were targeting, for instance, a 10% annualised return. So my view that Olam could be worth $2.60 today is actually already taking a big haircut on the assumptions Temasek and Mitsubishi did 10 years ago. And, whilst I place most emphasis on my own analysis, this gives me some comfort.
More generally, the point I was making with Temasek and Mitsubishi are these are two companies that did significant diligence before buying in, have a good understanding of materials trading, and also have the influence to improve the value of Olam through the operations of their own businesses. They paid $2.50ish ten years ago probably with a business plan that projecting 10 years out probably would have implied a price today of say $6.50 if they were targeting, for instance, a 10% annualised return. So my view that Olam could be worth $2.60 today is actually already taking a big haircut on the assumptions Temasek and Mitsubishi did 10 years ago. And, whilst I place most emphasis on my own analysis, this gives me some comfort.
alexvar ( Date: 08-May-2026 12:14) Posted:
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temasek or mitsubisi bought many years ago before COVID! - their entry price is kinda irrelevant.
olaim group became bloated holding co with a lot of debt and bad cash flow.
paying down the huge debt load and focusing on ofi hopefully gives good free cash flow.
olaim group became bloated holding co with a lot of debt and bad cash flow.
paying down the huge debt load and focusing on ofi hopefully gives good free cash flow.
Alignment ( Date: 08-May-2026 12:06) Posted:
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Buying at a 50% discount to Temasek' s inprice was certainly a profitable trade at AEM resulting in a more than 3x return.
Don' t think Temasek needs help to restore their value. Think they are capable of doing it themselves. Just be careful that what had happened before can happen again. Doin' t get fooled again!
Another point to bear in mind is that Temasek paid $2.23 for their shares, and Mitsubishi paid $2.75 for theirs.
Like I posted about AEM earlier this year, there is something nice about being able to buy shares at less than half Temasek' s in-price. You have a big margin of safety and can double your money even before Temasek breaks even.
Like I posted about AEM earlier this year, there is something nice about being able to buy shares at less than half Temasek' s in-price. You have a big margin of safety and can double your money even before Temasek breaks even.
Looking forward to your price target of $2.50 in 1 years' time
After monetizing the ROG business and Ofi IPO, revised NAV would be worth more than $3, throw in special dividends - all these catalysts provide tailwinds for Olam to move beyond its NAV of $1.82.
After monetizing the ROG business and Ofi IPO, revised NAV would be worth more than $3, throw in special dividends - all these catalysts provide tailwinds for Olam to move beyond its NAV of $1.82.
alexvar ( Date: 07-May-2026 15:55) Posted:
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1 yr,
once all the useless biz / stuff is disposed/monetized, so the company can focus on ofi.
such as useless rusmolco in russia.
the new management at Olaim must be accountable to the shareholder about its useless businesses in russia and gabon.
I reckon Olaim has lost hundreds of millions of SGD in russia, and is still losing money there.
throwing good SGD after bad rubles.
dydd
once all the useless biz / stuff is disposed/monetized, so the company can focus on ofi.
such as useless rusmolco in russia.
the new management at Olaim must be accountable to the shareholder about its useless businesses in russia and gabon.
I reckon Olaim has lost hundreds of millions of SGD in russia, and is still losing money there.
throwing good SGD after bad rubles.
dydd
What' s your definition of " soon"
alexvar ( Date: 07-May-2026 15:03) Posted:
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oh wow. short squeeze coming ?
$2.50 soon ?
$2.50 soon ?
Share borrowing lending . Shortists borrowed their share to sell short .
JurongW ( Date: 07-May-2026 14:49) Posted:
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Can u give more detail? what is sbl, borow as in short the stock?
tonytony ( Date: 07-May-2026 14:34) Posted:
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My chat group shared by few members , their sbl in CDP account have show share borrowing on 5 of May..
JurongW ( Date: 07-May-2026 13:40) Posted:
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ah darn, that' s too bad!
ideally want for it to fly to $2.5
ideally want for it to fly to $2.5
Olam overbought, perhaps time to consolidate between 1.11 and 1.23 before the next leg up.
Olaim is getting tired?
I don' t think it can break through #1.30 unless a special dividend announcement or new analyst upgrades ?
I don' t think it can break through #1.30 unless a special dividend announcement or new analyst upgrades ?
time to charge everyday up 0.02