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UOB soars 5% as OCBC jumps 3.4% record highs drive STI to all-time peak
This comes as analysts raise their target prices for both lenders
[SINGAPORE] Shares of UOB and OCBC hit record highs on Friday (Jan 23), driving the Straits Times Index (STI) to an all-time peak.
UOB : U11 +5% surged 5 per cent to a peak of S$39.50 at close, while OCBC : O39 +3.4% jumped 3.4 per cent to a high of S$21.29 at the end of the trading day.
The lenders&rsquo heavy weighting sent the STI : *STI +1.31% up 1.4 per cent to a peak of 4,895.15 points, before it closed 1.3 per cent up at 4,891.45 points.
Momentum for UOB started building on Thursday, when it climbed 2.3 per cent. This came as Asian markets tracked Wall Street gains after the easing of tensions over Greenland, alongside a rating upgrade from Macquarie.
In a note on Wednesday, Macquarie analyst Jayden Vantarakis said that Singapore banks are poised to benefit from wealth asset management inflows given the city-state&rsquo s &ldquo safe-haven&rdquo status.
He also raised his call on UOB to &ldquo outperform&rdquo , with a lifted target price of S$41, and raised OCBC&rsquo s target price to S$21.50. Morgan Stanley expressed similar confidence in UOB, upgrading its target price from S$40.10 to S$40.40.
UOB&rsquo s upgrades mark a sharp reversal in sentiment around what was seen as the weakest of the local banks.
At the start of the year, 64.7 per cent of analysts in a Bloomberg consensus had &ldquo hold&rdquo calls on UOB. The bank had been lagging its peers after it took much larger pre-emptive general allowances in its Q3 results, though it has been mounting a recovery since.
&ldquo The banks, especially UOB, have been catching up following a period of underperformance relative to DBS : D05 +0.98%,&rdquo said Morningstar equity analyst Kathy Chan.
She highlighted a brighter picture for interest rates: Markets now expect the US Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in March and April instead of cutting them immediately.
This delay is a boost for banks, including those in Singapore, as it prolongs the period they can earn higher interest on loans.
While rate cuts are still expected later in 2026, which usually squeezes lending profits, Chan said that rising fees from wealth management will likely help offset that impact.
Adding to the bullish view, Singapore Exchange market strategist Geoff Howie noted that trading turnover for both banks, as well as DBS, picked up in January compared to the preceding six months.
He pointed out that the lenders are attracting significant institutional capital, with OCBC topping the local market for net inflows.
Howie added that the three local banks&rsquo fundamentals remain strong, with three years of combined quarterly net interest income of more than S$8 billion, alongside a historic S$5 billion peak in non-interest income in the third quarter of 2025.
UOB shares last peaked in March 2025, while OCBC crossed the S$20 mark for the first time on the third day of trading this year.
Broader sentiment remains bullish. Earlier this year, analysts forecast that the STI could breach 5,000 points by the end of 2026, supported by policy tailwinds, recovering earnings and a revitalised initial public offering market.
The index crossed the 4,700 level on the third trading day of the year and is now within touching distance of the 4,900 mark.
Singapore&rsquo s macroeconomic environment has also been supportive, with the city-state&rsquo s gross domestic product expanding by a higher-than-expected 4.8 per cent in 2025 after a robust fourth quarter.
$43-45 for long term
pasttime ( Date: 24-Jan-2026 09:14) Posted:
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while one cannot stop the market activities including short selling. the rule must be fair.
in hkex they have tick rule which does not permit short seller to sell below current best ask price.
they also have an open ownership system where one can monitor and see share ownership changes
after t+2.
in hkex they have tick rule which does not permit short seller to sell below current best ask price.
they also have an open ownership system where one can monitor and see share ownership changes
after t+2.
What to do. Open market. Just like at ocean very hard to control big shark or whale from swallowing small fishes and shrimps.
Flow behind them will do.
Flow behind them will do.
pasttime ( Date: 23-Jan-2026 19:19) Posted:
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this bank also benefits from short covering. maybe ng fortunte after distributed to the sons.
suddenly all very rich so they start buy back their own shares causing shorty to run road.
more to come. win more to fried the shorty.
by the way i am not against shorts. only aganst the big shorts who used their financial strength to do
scoop and dump (modified form) and some times direct one. sgx not monitoring illegal activities enough,.
these foreign fund taking us for a ride. very bad for long term development of sgx. 5b is nothing.
they wait for stock price up then do the same over again.
suddenly all very rich so they start buy back their own shares causing shorty to run road.
more to come. win more to fried the shorty.
by the way i am not against shorts. only aganst the big shorts who used their financial strength to do
scoop and dump (modified form) and some times direct one. sgx not monitoring illegal activities enough,.
these foreign fund taking us for a ride. very bad for long term development of sgx. 5b is nothing.
they wait for stock price up then do the same over again.
Today instantly up 5% within a day.
For godsake.
For godsake.
even buying at the opening ox now also make more than 1 buck in profits, the power of anal-yst upgrade😛
UOB jumps 2% as market rises Macquarie upgrades stock
It has potential for a &lsquo relative-value catch-up play&rsquo , with headwinds set to abate this earnings season
[SINGAPORE] Shares of UOB : U11 +1.9% rose on Thursday (Jan 22) after Macquarie upgraded its call on the lender and raised its target price.
The counter climbed 2.3 per cent or S$0.83 to S$37.60 in early trade, hitting a nine-month high. The last time UOB shares traded higher was in April 2025, ShareInvestor data showed.
As at 3.18 pm, the counter was trading at S$37.51, still up by 2 per cent, with close to four million shares changing hands.
In a Wednesday note, Macquarie analyst Jayden Vantarakis upgraded UOB to an &ldquo outperform&rdquo rating and lifted its target price to S$41, being 11.5 per cent over its latest closing price of S$36.77.
Vantarakis sees a potential &ldquo relative-value catch-up play&rdquo for UOB as headwinds are expected to abate this earnings season.
&ldquo Seasonal trends are a headwind for non-interest income. Lower rates are a double-edged sword, pressuring revenues in FY2026 but benefiting valuations,&rdquo he said.
Vantarakis highlighted that loan volumes have risen, as the latest banking statistics from the Monetary Authority of Singapore in November reflect a &ldquo sustained pickup in lending&rdquo . This comes as interest rates are expected to continue trending downwards on Singapore dollar strength and US dollar weakness.
&ldquo Whilst we expect some slowdown (for loan volume) in FY2026 to reflect front-loading impacts for manufacturing and exports, this sets a positive base for (the year&rsquo s estimated) loan momentum,&rdquo he said.
Vantakaris forecasts UOB&rsquo s quarterly provisions normalising after taking large one-off provisions in the third quarter, given that the bank has topped up allowances and as rate movements should be &ldquo marginally supportive of collateral values&rdquo .
Macquarie noted that quarter-on-quarter momentum for Q4 FY2025&rsquo s estimated profit after tax and minority interests could be affected by how Singapore banks have recorded lower trading and other non-interest income over the past five years, but UOB could benefit from a lower base in Q3 FY2025.
While major US banks recently reported a quarter-on-quarter decline in overall wealth assets by 2 per cent, Singapore banks are expected to do better on wealth asset under management inflows, he added, given that the relative &ldquo safe-haven&rdquo status of the city-state&rsquo s banking sector.
However, earnings growth is expected to remain lacklustre in FY2026, which may present headwinds, Vantakaris said.
UOB will be releasing its full-year financial results for FY2025 on Feb 24.
UOB prices S$850 million perpetual securities at 3%
The issue date of the securities is expected to be Jan 21
[SINGAPORE] UOB has priced S$850 million in perpetual capital securities at 3 per cent under its US$30 billion Global Medium Term Note Programme, the bank announced on Wednesday (Jan 14).
The issue date of the securities is expected to be Jan 21, and the securities are first callable in 2033.
The rate is subject to a reset on Jan 21, 2033, and every seven years thereafter, to a rate equal to the prevailing seven-year Singapore Overnight Rate Average Overnight Indexed Swap plus the initial spread of 0.94 per cent.
The securities were priced at 100 per cent of their principal amount.
The securities are perpetual but may be redeemed at the option of the bank on the first reset date in 2033, or on any distribution payment date thereafter.
Distributions are payable semi-annually in arrears and are non-cumulative.
UOB is the sole coordinator for the issuance. It is also a joint lead manager and joint bookrunner along with Citigroup Global Markets Singapore.
The securities are expected to be rated &ldquo Baa1&rdquo by Moody&rsquo s Investors Service and &ldquo BBB+&rdquo by Fitch Ratings, the bank said.
FY2026 GUIDANCE &ndash The Critical Promise
What UOB Management Said (in Q3 earnings call, Aug 2025):
" We expect credit costs in FY2026 to NORMALIZE to 25-30 basis points"
What This Means in Simple Terms:
-
We (UOB management) took a S$615m precautionary hit in Q3 2025 -
We believe that was sufficient / overly cautious -
Going forward, credit costs will normalize back to 25-30 bps (typical/expected level) -
This means the provision buffer we built will NOT be needed -
Result: In FY2026, instead of releasing S$615m, we' ll reverse/release SOME of that provision -
This provision RELEASE will boost FY2026 earnings
The Mathematical Certainty (Why It' s Called " Certain" ):
| Component | FY2025 Actual | FY2026 Expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating profit (before provisions) | S$1.9b | S$1.8-1.9b | Moderate headwind (NIM compression) |
| Credit costs/Provisions | 134 bps (abnormal) | 25-30 bps (normalized) | +100-110 bps improvement ✅ |
| Net profit calculation | S$1.76b (9M) | S$2.0-2.2b (est FY26) | 15-25% earnings growth ✅ |
Why This Is " Mathematically Certain" :
-
The S$615m was already taken (it' s done no longer an earnings headwind) -
Management explicitly committed to 25-30bps normalized credit costs (public guidance) -
If macro doesn' t deteriorate further, the earnings swing is AUTOMATIC and GUARANTEED -
It doesn' t depend on revenue growth or business improvement&mdash just on provision normalization
sfw2124 ( Date: 27-Dec-2025 11:46) Posted:
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UOB BULL CASE EXPLAINED: WHAT DOES " PROVISIONS CONFIRMED" MEAN?
Simple Explanation with Real Examples
Analysis Date: 27 December 2025
Your Question: What is the Bull Case? What does " Provisions Confirmed" mean?
PART 1: UNDERSTANDING " PROVISIONS" &ndash THE BANKING CONCEPT
What Are Provisions? (Simple Explanation)
Imagine you' re a bank lending money to borrowers:
A bank knows that NOT ALL borrowers will repay their loans. Some will default. So the bank sets aside money in advance to cover expected losses. This " set-aside money" is called a PROVISION.
Real-World Example:
-
A bank lends S$1 billion to customers -
History shows 1% of loans default (S$10 million) -
The bank sets aside S$10 million to cover expected losses -
This S$10 million is a " provision"
When a bank INCREASES provisions, what happens?
-
The bank is saying: " We' re setting aside MORE money because we think MORE loans will default" -
This money comes out of current-year earnings -
Result: Lower reported profit (even though actual business may be fine)
When a bank REVERSES/RELEASES provisions, what happens?
-
The bank is saying: " We no longer need this extra safety buffer credit quality has improved" -
This money goes BACK INTO earnings -
Result: Higher reported profit (from releasing cash that was set aside)
UOB' s Specific Provision Situation (Q3 2025)
What UOB Did (July-August 2025):
-
UOB took a S$615 MILLION PRE-EMPTIVE GENERAL PROVISION -
This was on TOP of normal, expected provisions -
Why? Management was being cautious about potential credit losses (US property weakness, China slowdown) -
Impact on Earnings: This provision reduced Q3 net profit by S$615m -
Q3 Result: Net profit collapsed 72% (from S$1.61bn to S$443m)
What This Means:
-
UOB' s Q3 earnings looked TERRIBLE (72% drop) -
BUT: The drop was NOT because of bad business performance -
The drop was VOLUNTARY & PRE-EMPTIVE: UOB chose to over-provision for safety -
Think of it like: " We' re putting extra money in the piggy bank just in case"
The Banking Math:
-
Normal expected credit costs: ~25-30 basis points (bps) of loan book -
UOB' s Q3 actual credit costs: 134 bps (= 100-110 bps EXTRA due to pre-emptive provision) -
The 100-110 bps swing is the key point: This swing is one-time, non-recurring
JurongW ( Date: 26-Dec-2025 16:11) Posted:
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Thanks for the comprehensive summary.
If UOB trades conservatively to P/B 1.4x in 2026, then share price should be around $40.50 (15.5% return excluding dividend yield of 5%)
If UOB trades conservatively to P/B 1.4x in 2026, then share price should be around $40.50 (15.5% return excluding dividend yield of 5%)
sfw2124 ( Date: 26-Dec-2025 15:34) Posted:
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Executive Summary: Singapore Big Three Banks 2026-2028 Tactical Analysis
Updated Pricing: December 26, 2025, 3:27 PM
Investment Recommendation: BUY UOB (U11)
Core Thesis (One Sentence)
UOB is entering a mathematically-certain earnings recovery cycle in 2026 driven by provision normalization&mdash offering 11-15% annualized returns over 2-3 years at a 40-85% valuation discount to peers, while OCBC and DBS offer only 6-10% with less visibility or higher risk.
Why UOB Wins
The Catalyst: UOB took a one-off S$615M provision in Q3 2025 (abnormal 82 bps credit costs). Management commits FY2026 credit costs will normalize to 25-30 bps&mdash a mathematical guarantee of 15-25% earnings recovery independent of revenue growth.
Current Opportunity (Dec 26, 2025):
-
Price: S$35.05 (excellent entry timing) -
Valuation: P/B 1.21x (cheapest) P/E 10.07x -
Target 2027: S$38-42 = 8-20% upside -
Dividend: 5.0-5.4% annually -
Total 2-3 Year Return: 8-12% annualized (3-7% capital appreciation + 5% dividend)
Why Market Missed It:
-
Analyst consensus target S$34.42 ignores recovery thesis -
Market focus on Q3 weakness blinds them to FY2026 earnings rebound -
Management buyback at S$34-35 signals internal conviction this is undervalued
sfw2124 ( Date: 26-Dec-2025 15:32) Posted:
|
Comparative Returns Table (UPDATED PRICES)
| Metric | UOB | OCBC | DBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | S$35.05 | S$19.77 | S$56.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.21x | 1.48x | 2.27x |
| FY2026 EPS Growth | +15-25% | +3-5% | +2-4% |
| Price Target 2027 | S$38-42 | S$21-23 | S$57-63 |
| Capital Appreciation | 8-20% | 2-16% | 2-12% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0-5.4% | 4.89% | 4.97% |
| Annualized Total Return | 8-12% | 6-10% | 5-8% |
| Primary Catalyst | Provision normalization (confirmed) | Capital return policy (uncertain) | Dividend consistency (mature) |
| Valuation Risk | Low | Moderate | HIGH |
| Recommendation | BUY | Hold | AVOID |
2026-2028 Earnings Breakdown
UOB: Recovery Play ✓ RECOMMENDED
-
FY2026: +15-25% earnings growth (provision normalization floor 25-30 bps) -
FY2027-28: +5-8% growth (normalized + Citi integration synergies) -
Dividend: 50% payout ratio maintained DPS S$0.82-0.93 FY26 -
Capital Support: S$2B buyback through 2027 (2-3% annual EPS accretion) -
Entry: S$35.05 optimal
sfw2124 ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 22:27) Posted:
|
2025 DOMINATES ALL SGX COMPANIES(Share BuyBacks)
| Rank | Company | 2025 YTD Spending | Avg Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UOB | S$560.8m | S$35.39 |
| 2 | DBS | S$371.1m | S$42.77 |
| 3 | OCBC | S$349.0m | S$16.67 |
| 4 | Keppel | S$70.0m | S$8.39 |
| 5 | Sembcorp | S$59.0m | S$6.05 |
UOB leads all SGX companies by 51% despite smaller market cap
WHAT THIS TELLS YOU
✓ Management Confidence: Buying aggressively at 1.2x P/B while DBS trades 2.3x
✓ Capital Strength: S$2B buyback + 6.5% dividend maintained despite Q3 provision = underlying business is STRONG
✓ EPS Accretion: ~2-3% annual EPS growth just from reduced share count
✓ Undervaluation Signal: Management sees value that market is missing
✓ Total Return Potential: 6.5% dividend + 2-3% buyback accretion + 15-21% capital gain = 24-30% over 18 months
KEY INSIGHT
2025' s 9x acceleration in buybacks (S$658.5m vs S$102m in 2024) coincides PRECISELY with:
-
Q3 provision announcement (Nov 6 selloff) -
Asset management sale review (Dec 17) -
Stock hitting S$34.00 support level
This is NOT panic buying. This is management saying: " At these prices, our shares represent exceptional value."
sfw2124 ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 22:03) Posted:
|
UOB (U11): Why Fund Managers Got It Wrong
The selling pressure on UOB reflects two management misunderstandings:
1️ ⃣ ASSET MANAGEMENT SALE &ne DISTRESS
The $28.8B USD asset sale is portfolio optimization, not financial desperation. UOB reallocates capital from lower-return asset management to higher-growth wholesale banking and wealth management. This signals disciplined capital allocation, not weakness.
2️ ⃣ $615M PROVISION &ne ASSET QUALITY DETERIORATION
The 72% Q3 profit decline is a one-off " kitchen sink" charge to front-load anticipated losses. NPL ratio stayed stable at 1.6%. Management confirmed final 2025 dividend UNAFFECTED&mdash clear confidence signal. This is balance-sheet strengthening.
THE NUMBERS DON' T LIE
| Metric | UOB | OCBC | DBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 1.2x | 1.4x | 2.3x |
| P/E | 9.9x | 12.1x | 14.0x |
| Dividend | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
UOB = Cheapest valuation + Highest yield = Pure mispricing from headlines.
WHY FUND MANAGERS BAILED
✗ Headline trading (ignored non-recurring provisions)
✗ Momentum chasing (DBS/OCBC had better Q3 earnings)
✗ Risk-off bias (preferred " safe" DBS over recovery play)
✓ Your edge: Volume spike Dec 17 = capitulation selling exhausted
2026 RECOVERY INCOMING
✓ NIM stabilizes 1.75%-1.80%
✓ Credit costs normalize to 25-30 bps (vs 134 bps Q3)
✓ Fee income growing (cards + wealth management)
✓ Earnings rebound as provisions reverse
GEOPOLITICAL WIN
UOB = most ASEAN-centric bank. Trump 2.0 tariffs = manufacturing China &rarr Vietnam/Thailand/Malaysia = FDI financing + data center boom + trade finance growth. DBS/OCBC have Greater China headwinds instead.
ACTION
Value hunters &rarr Accumulate SGD 34-36, target SGD 40-42 (15-21% gain + 6.5% yield = 22-27% return, 12-18 months)
Sources: Bloomberg (Dec 17) Investment analysis files Singapore Banks 2026 Outlook DYODD
Joelton ( Date: 20-Dec-2025 14:00) Posted:
|
UOB is said to explore possible sale of asset management arm
United Overseas Bank (UOB) is exploring options for its asset management arm, including a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter, as the Singaporean lender seeks to streamline. UOB is working with a financial adviser on a potential sale of UOB Asset Management, the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are private. Other options include bringing in a partner to boost the unit&rsquo s growth, the people said.
A transaction may value UOB&rsquo s asset management business at several hundred million dollars, some of the people said.
Established in 1986, the UOB subsidiary had about $37.2 billion of assets under management at the end of the first quarter, its website shows. Based in Singapore and wholly owned by UOB, the asset manager also has a presence in Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
UOB Asset Management may draw interest from other industry players as well as insurers and private equity firms, the people said. Considerations are preliminary and may not result in a transaction, they said. Declining to comment on the subject, a representative for UOB said the bank is focused on delivering long-term value to shareholders and meeting customer needs.
UOB last month set aside aprovision of $615 million, its biggest ever, citing commercial real estate risks in the US and Greater China. The bank&rsquo s shares have fallen about 4% this year, while the Straits Times Index has rallied 21%.
DCA
UOB Share Price Correction Offers Opportunity To Accumulate
https://sginvestors.io/analysts/research/2025/11/united-overseas-bank-ocbc-investment-research-2025-11-06
https://sginvestors.io/analysts/research/2025/11/united-overseas-bank-ocbc-investment-research-2025-11-06
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion-features/uob-could-be-singapores-top-value-play
Begin covering UOB
Begin covering UOB