YZJ Fin Hldg    Last:0.225   -

YZJFH - potentially rewarding

I believe the key reason why YFH can still hold its price at ~0.33 inspite of the abrupt sharp increase of NPL to 30% and also in the absence of SBB is due to its CASH value.

Cash & Yield products has been quoted as 27.6% of YFH Total portfolio. Note, it is Total Portfolio (AUM) at $4323m, not Nav at $4089m. Yield products are almost Cash equivalent, so the Total Cash and Cash equivalent in YFH balance sheet at 27.6% can be translated to $1193m, which at the latest 3691m o/s, is valued at 0.323 per share. 

The 30% NPL is YFH own asset so even if in the super worst doomsday scenario where the entire $762m ought to be written off and all the collaterals are also somehow worthless, YFH Net Asset and AUM will delcine by $762m accordingly, which will certainly affect its future income streams, and in turn its valuation (which is not relevant because YFH is already heavily discounted from its intrinsic value),  BUT the Cash in the balance sheet will still remain intact as $1193m.

Somehow, the market (the Big Boys) have " conspired" to discount YFH to just its Cash Value, ignoring all its other income generating assets for god knows the reasons.

Now, some people may still go on to question is this $1193m REAL ?  The Audit and Risk Committee team is headed by Chua (Ex Snr Dir MAS), with Chew (Ex Snr Managing Dir SGX), and Yee (Chairman of a Law firm). These men are high profile veterans with strong reputations in the financial regulatory, asset management and legal sectors. So unless you are questioning the integrity, morale bearing, intellectual ability and the combined wealth of experiences of these 3 men, there is really no need to question the authenticity of the financial statement or this $1193m Cash holding. And in case IF you still do, then you should really sell away the stock and move on to one that you think you can trust its financials.





 

 

use your small little brain to think. Which market is not driven by market maker?
Take YZJFH as example, today they put up 33/33.5, tomorrow they can also put up 35/35.5 with millions of of buying and seller, you can clear them by buying up their sell Q and sold them their buy Q? If you think only happent to SGX, then you are wrong.
Take NIO as example, they can push up NIO from USD from USD 10 to USD 60 within few months and dump it downt o USD 10 again within few months. 
 

sgng123      ( Date: 10-Dec-2022 10:03) Posted: Trade is suicide in SGX, stock price all controlled by market maker. Only way to win is invest and forget till TP reached. Days gone where u can make good money in short period of time. Market makers got big data to know who trading up or down then just play them out. But extended period of no SSB after Mon business update is weird, SSB start after aug 1h result out.

 

SBB don' t help to push up the price. This happen to many counters. 
For those who get the shares through spin off, I noticed some of them sold SB and convert to FH. They  may think that with lower values the return is higher in percentage. But some time it is not the case. Low can be lower (FH), high can be higher (SB) depending on what they want to push.   

 

If people have YZJF via YZJS' spinoff, then ok what? With YZJS share price at its current level, YZJF shares are as good as free, no? Why the sentiment is that everyone is losing patience? Some wants SBB to continue but SBB shouldn' t be indiscriminate too. It' s better to have a strategy, for eg, right now, without SBB, the share price is at the same level as previous fierce SBB. So, no SBB at current time should not be an issue. Some wants Chairman to buy in personal capacity and claimed that he failed to keep his promise. Hello, he said if 10% cap is met then he will buy in personal capacity ok, now not yet. Some still say no dividend, wah, facepalm. The dividend will declare at the end of year results ok. Touching on dividend, thanks to you know who, they have came up with a rough estimate. If the estimation is spot on or close enough, then dividend yield is at least 6%? Not bad right? If they keep paying 6%, soon enough the yield will be compressed to around 4%, then you go and work out what is the share price then. Especially if they increase the payout along the way. So people, be patient, unless you scare really no dividend at the end of the year, then you should liquidate immediately and channel your attention elsewhere. No point perpetual negativity or ' attacking' the counter. 

 

YZJFH is definitely controlled by market maker. Better not to commit at current level. 

sgng123      ( Date: 10-Dec-2022 10:03) Posted: Trade is suicide in SGX, stock price all controlled by market maker. Only way to win is invest and forget till TP reached. Days gone where u can make good money in short period of time. Market makers got big data to know who trading up or down then just play them out. But extended period of no SSB after Mon business update is weird, SSB start after aug 1h result out.

 

Trade is suicide in SGX, stock price all controlled by market maker. Only way to win is invest and forget till TP reached.
Days gone where u can make good money in short period of time.
Market makers got big data to know who trading up or down then just play them out.
But extended period of no SSB after Mon business update is weird, SSB start after aug 1h result out.

 

market wager got win got loose. 

this stock has only been listed for a few months not a few years. the true colour still unknown. when the boss say he will buy after buy back is used up. cannot say he not true as buy back still has a lot not yet done before the limit.
with each day of no buy back, the average number of shares that can buy back is increasing before they hit limit. that become a potential force against shorts. unuse bullets are more useful then use one.

just be patient, let the shorts cover and those who want to accumulate do their job then the share price will float up. short term traders, up to your skill,  range now is 33 to 36. 
market maker continue their buy/sell bid, the spread is very profitable. jsut worry no volume.
dyodd

 

 

Most likely they used volume weight average price in 2022 to determine the price currently stand at 0.51 from SGX statistic.
Heavily penalised china based companies usually delist when the stock price drop too low on NTA.
Not to mention YZJFH listed through introduction, might offend fund managers who made living through IPO.
Best for YZJFH to either delist or get temasek or GIC to back as cornerstone investor.
Transfering 1b and more to invest in sg and get cold shoulder in stock market dom work well.
Think the owner Ren YL very pissed, come here to invest and his stock get hammered, not to mention they even bother

 

Depends on how much is the delist offer...if 60-70c, yes it will satisfied investors... But if 35-40c, majority will not be happy.

sgng123      ( Date: 09-Dec-2022 22:03) Posted: Who know maybe Ren YL might decide to pull the plug and delist from SGX, IPO in homeground HK where YZJFH would get full valuation. Delist at VWAP 0.51 would satisfy both investors and owner .Really SGX sucks for china based companies majority had delist and go back hk to relist. SGX also suck for retail investors too. Maybe that the plan all along, spin off and get shipping div to full valuation then delist financial div at market price. As long u don load in too high, still win if a delist happen. Current stock price very bad for YZJFH to attract investors to invest in it GF/LP fund.

 

Who know maybe Ren YL might decide to pull the plug and delist from SGX, IPO in homeground HK where YZJFH would get full valuation.
Delist at VWAP 0.51 would satisfy both investors and owner .Really SGX sucks for china based companies majority had delist and go back hk to relist. SGX also suck for retail investors too.
Maybe that the plan all along, spin off and get shipping div to full valuation then delist financial div at market price.
As long u don load in too high, still win if a delist happen.
Current stock price very bad for YZJFH to attract investors to invest in it GF/LP fund.

 

I think no more SBB after major foregin fund mgrs exited. Because further SBB would invite SS daily. With no further company announcement , mkt may go sideways over next two weeks. Don't expect any big price movement in short term. Let this counter goes for a quiet Christmas with no celebration.

Huge NPL provision didn't move the price down which indicated next five years is a high inflation era . In China property should go even hotter , places like Shanghai and Peking will take the lead.

 

x 0

after so much hype from chairman Ren, who said the co is undervalued n he is going in to buy to support the share price even after the sbb mandate is fulfilled.....the share price today reflects what he had said 2 mths ago DID NOT HAPPEN...hollow empty words...HOW TO TRUST. FROM DAY 1, ALL WAS WRONG IN DISTRIBUTING YZFH IN SPECIE TO  YZJS shareholders...INSTEAD OF DOING A IPO where a better gauge of its value by the mkt. IT JUST TUMBLED DOWN DOING A FREE FALL N NEVER RECOVER from day 1..April 28. YZJFH said the co would support the share price if it drops below its NAV pre listing but the mngt had yet the mandate to do a sbb....WHAT BLUR MNGT. SO ALL IN ALL ITS A JUNKIE STOCK......there are many loyal  die hard investors who still have faith MNGT SHOULD WAKE UP N DO SOMETHING POSITIVE...... YOU CAN HAVE ALL THE TOP HONCHOS IN THE BOARD BUT IF NO POSITIVE RESULTS TO  BOOST UP THE SHARE PRICE , IT IS JUST NAME POWER

 

Hopefully they restart SSB soon or still got news coming later.
Guessing the next news to drop would be the cancellation of treasury stock, most likely would help stock to rebound as it point strongly to second SSB in 2023 and all financial ratio get artificially boosted on lesser stocks.
That how dow bull market for 10years lol, SSB and stock cancellation dilute retail and strengthen owner.
YZJFH SSB fail to stabilise stock as it did not get cancel. Spending 99mil to buy back 6.6% and share price cut in half lol.
China businessmen need to learn from an moh how to play global market.

 

At the end truth will come... How much $ to be shared as dividend... Before we talk about 40%. If that's mean 4-5% per share div per share... YJZFH redeem itself fully. This happened to China reit like SASSEUR REIT, stock price recovered quite a long after it really div near 10% div of its share price!

sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 22:15) Posted: Depend on whether SSB can completed before audited results. If 10% SSB mandate completed, chance of higher dividend .in introduction listing they did mention dividend come from income generating DI so might get a better yield if YZJFH management decide to give. Private equity fund, GE funds etc all are asset enhancement money earned all get plough back. That why DI never scrap but reduced to 30% by 2023. But chill DI income most likely made up more than 50% of profit so don worry abt dividend. I more worry abt dismal stock price which could affect investors confidence in investing in YZJFH product. In August report each stock carried cash value of $0.50 more than current stock price not to mention it get higher and higher once DI get reduced to 30% Greatest mystery in 2022 why YZJFH get smash while YZJSH soar lol.

 

Likely due to yzjfh have not yet proven itself i guess as investment company standalone away from yzjsh.
once dividend is out and full year reports and we know more on their future investment going forward should give the boost and confidence for investors as they will have clearer picture.
anyway BB are playing. we just stay sideline watch show. 

sbb not starting back very likely means got more news coming out from the company in near future. just wait ba for sbb to start back after that

 

 

Depend on whether SSB can completed before audited results. If 10% SSB mandate completed, chance of higher dividend .in introduction listing they did mention dividend come from income generating DI so might get a better yield if YZJFH management decide to give.
Private equity fund, GE funds etc all are asset enhancement money earned all get plough back. That why DI never scrap but reduced to 30% by 2023. But chill DI income most likely made up more than 50% of profit so don worry abt dividend.
I more worry abt dismal stock price which could affect investors confidence in investing in YZJFH product.
In August report each stock carried cash value of $0.50 more than current stock price not to mention it get higher and higher once DI get reduced to 30%
Greatest mystery in 2022 why YZJFH get smash while YZJSH soar lol.

 

Just mind boggling with such a big carrot dangling in front in plain sight but price keeps creeping down

vicloo      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 21:57) Posted: Let's see how much % div based on current pathetic share price of 33c....hope it is at least 6-8% i.e. 2-3c div per share at least. TBILL return based on latest bidding is 4.4% https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapores-latest-six-month-treasury-bill-offers-decades-high-yield-44 sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 17:53) Posted: Dividend min 40% not at 40%, depending on Ren YL mood he might decide to give higher dividend to compensate investors for the decline in price

 

Let's see how much % div based on current pathetic share price of 33c....hope it is at least 6-8% i.e. 2-3c div per share at least.

TBILL return based on latest bidding is 4.4%

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapores-latest-six-month-treasury-bill-offers-decades-high-yield-44

sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 17:53) Posted: Dividend min 40% not at 40%, depending on Ren YL mood he might decide to give higher dividend to compensate investors for the decline in price. volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 16:15) Posted:   I would like to reiterate here that, if the latest Nav 1.0923 stated by YFH is referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022 ( ie, not the old 3937m as at 30Jun2022, or 3951m that CIMB was still strangely using, or the latest 3691m that was last registered as on 31Oct2022 ), which I think it should unless the CFO LiuHua or CEO Toe were dumb enough to overlook the mistake, then this Nav could be crudely reverse engineered with the 3Q RMB devaluation against SGD + new NPL provisions to give a 3Q NPAT $61m. @emailpeter had made a crude 4Q NPAT projection of $55m with a haircut assumption using 3Q $61m as reference, noting on the loss of income on the affected NPL 777m portion. FY22 NPAT was projected at $252m, higher than YFH/CIMB prevailing guided NPAT $220m.    I think the projection is reasonable, provided 1) the nav  1.09223@3744m  o/s is indeed valid, 2) no more new and huge provision from the NPL. @emailpeter estimated the dividend payout using a 90% SBB assumption, which was also what I did earlier before the SBB was abruptly stopped on 31oct2022. I tend to have a different view now. Treasury shares are excluded from EPS and DPS so EPS and DPS will increase accordingly. However, I am not sure when is the cut off point now because FY22 result is contingent on 31Dec2022 where EPS will be declared based on the shares o/s as at 31Dec2022. YFH may continue to SBB until 1 month before FY22 release in mid~late Feb or early Mar, and then SBB again until AGM as long as the max is still not reached. Book close for dividend payout is in mid~late Apr. The shares o/s as at 31Dec2022 and Book close in Apr2023 are very different. I tend to think now that the cut off to determine the shares o/s for dividend payouts is likely set at 31Dec2022. Since YFH has not rebooted SBB for unkown reason(s) after releasing the 3Q, I would now conservatively assume no more SBB until probably the commencement of Jan 2023. I would use 3691m o/s or 66% SBB as the cut off for dividend payout. EPS = $252m / 3691 = 0.0683 DPS = 0.6827 * 0.40 = $0.0273, rounded off to $0.027. At current price ~0.34, yield = 7.9% Now, if we assume a very bad scenario such that  there are more nasty huge NPL provisions to add such that YFH just breakeven in 4Q, then FY22 NPAT would be 136m + 61m = $197m EPS = $197 / 3691 = 0.0534 DPS = 0.0534 * 0.4 = 0.0213, rounded off to $0.021 At current price ~0.34, yield = 6.2% And further, if we are even more conserative, we can take a 50% cut on the re-engineered 3Q NPAT 61m. EPS = [ 136 + ( 61 * 0.5 ) ] / 3691 = 0.0451 DPS = 0.0451 * 0.4 = 0.018 At current price ~0.34, yield = 5.3% So you could be looking at a DPS of between 0.18 to 0.27.  Again, I would like to reiterate here one more time that if the stated Nav 1.0923 by YFH is validly referenced to 3744m o/s, then I think DPS 0.27 is a reasonable expectation.

 

Don anyhow quote profit or cash loh, everything need to be audited. 3q update is only business update not financial result.
u had to wait next year to know the actual data.
For now just know that NPL go up significantly due to interest and principal not paid or return on time.
NTA, EPS etc all had to wait till next year then know.
For now focus on SSB reactivate and whether Ren YL would go in market and increase his stake.
3q update just a guide on business ended 30sep, not up to date with current market.

volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 19:29) Posted: Yes, shares cancellation will boost Nav per share permanently up. The current boosting up of Nav per shares is still not " permanent" as the coy can release the treasury shares for corporate actions such as M& A ... etc, which again will dilute the Nav down to the amount of shares being used. The SG Company Aat has stipulated that Treasury shares must not exceed 10% of the Coy float at all time. Hence, in order to renew the SBB once the current 395m SBB is max out, YFH will need to cancel shares, in part or in full, in order to restore the SBB. So Yes, I am also expecting YFH to cancel shares in due course.  No, the current Nav as of today will be based on the latest known 3691m shares o/s, not 3955m, or 3937m that YFH used to derived the Nav 1.0745 in the 1H2022 report.. For the 3Q reporting, the Nav 1.0923 quoted must be referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022, else all the numbers quoted in the 3Q report will be garbage. The SBB 206m shares as at 30Sep2022 had boosted up but RMB devaluation and the NPL provision had almost wiped off the gain. It was the positive 3Q NPAT that lifted the Nav up to 1.0923. The Nav per shares has improved from 1.0745 to 1.0923 due to a lower 3691m o/s, BUT the absolute dollar value of the Net Asset as reflected in the Balance Sheet has actually reduced from $4230m as at 1H2022 to $4089m as at 30Sep2022. . sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 18:19) Posted: Patience difficult to make fast buck u lose more than u win. let see if Ren YL make his move since he make it clear in Nov edge report he not happy abt the stock price. Big move by him would move the stock as shortlist exit, best if YZJFH cancel treasury stocks which guarantee improvement to NTA etc., effectively diluting small investors and boosting Ren . Currently NTA still calculated on 3955 so in fact YZJFH aum grows in 3q lol 1.07 to 1.09.

 

Don look too much into 3q update, need auditor to audit then can confirm. Just know YZJFH had placed DI in real estate into NPL while making 14.7m provision on principal not returned. All the DI already covered by land collaterals which is worth more than debt.
Currently situation caused by earlier market rout in Oct and people holding off paying interest and returning their debt till coast clear. Market in china more or less stabilised after CCP cash injection into real estate and COVID restriction easing.
Anyway 3q update lag current market development since report late by 1 MTH should had release in Nov.
SSB still not activated, guess they got more news to release.