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20-Dec-2013 00:38

Renaissance United / Neglected, Illiquid, Undervalue, Recovery counter

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I saw a lot of articles by professional analysts and discussion by forummers claiming that a long and big bear will follow Fed tapering.

While I agree that a bear will follow, but it will be a mini one which will end within 2 months.

General strategy=>

Sell defensive counters now.
Buy into cyclical counters 2 weeks from now.

Excited to know the outcome. Long bearish winter or a short winter?

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20-Dec-2013 00:02

Renaissance United / Neglected, Illiquid, Undervalue, Recovery counter

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Fed just announced it is cutting back on QE3 as economy shows sign of recovery.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/12/fed-will-reduce-bond-purchases-due-to-stronger-job-market.html

Rosesyrup once did a personal economy forecast and posted it on NOL thread 4 months ago (my posting is cut and pasted as follow). My forecast was economy will recover quickest by late Dec and in yet another posting Rosesyrup said Fed will start to cut back from Jan 2014, but at that time market was discussing about Fed tapering QE3 in September or October not December .

Now it is late Dec and Fed decided to start tapering on QE3 in Jan 2014, seems like my economy forecast is accurate. :) Or maybe Rosesyrup is just plain lucky again?

Rate This Post: Useful To Me Not Useful To Me
Rosesyrup Master	15-Aug-2013 20:34 About Rosesyrup Contact Quote! Yells: " Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly."
x 1 x 0 Alert Admin	Lol, not so fast yet. Try to think of the world in this way: 1) US and Europe are the world's market, they represent most of the world demand. 2) China is the world factory, they supply US and Europe with manufactured goods. 3) South East Asia (SEA) is the factory's backyard, providing raw materials which are need by China to complete the goods. Thus, US and Europe might have shown sign of recovery. But it still takes some time for their demands to first reach China and for China to start demanding raw materials from SEA. You can use China's growth data as a gauge to measure NOL recovery. As soon as the world factory starts running again, NOL's ships would be kept busy transporting in and out of the factory. Though I do not have an accurate way of knowing when will this moment comes, I still attempt to forecast with trend analysis. According to my forecast, the quickest is by the end of this December, assuming Asian economies would not be severely affected by outflow of funds.

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19-Dec-2013 23:06

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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If admin diasallowed, how come admin did not remove those postings? Funny if admin don't bother, why you so stubborn?

interfact ( Date: 19-Dec-2013 10:56) Posted:

If Admin said cannot post chinese then dont post.Why so stubborn?

Funny..what is there to argue for so many days.

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19-Dec-2013 20:21

Shen Yao / ThinkEnv name change to Liongold Corp

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Must open from SGX website. Can't do it directly using the link.

starlene ( Date: 19-Dec-2013 20:19) Posted:

What's this..can't open the file..plse help

http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorporateAnnouncement_Content& B=AnnouncementToday& F=1025997#.UrLkCvQW2So

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19-Dec-2013 20:15

SATS / Sats

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A lot of people very happy and bought in when it reached a height of nearly $3.50 in OCT 2013.

But I have already warned right from the beginning of the year, Jan 2013.

Must look at fundamental before buying anything.

Alot claimed I sprout nonsense on this forum, so maybe I lucky lucky guess correct only.

Rosesyrup ( Date: 23-Jan-2013 14:11) Posted:

Don't let my random opinion affect any of your decision. And definitely I wasn't hinting at anything.

Pay more attention to the research papers.

Rosesyrup ( Date: 23-Jan-2013 14:01) Posted:

Because one of the research house (CIMB, I think) upgrade SATs to buy in, on the expectation that the increase in flight traffic would increase SATs revenue.

But there are obviously good (in fact very strong) reason why UOB downgraded the share. Go find out for yourselves. A hint here: Go do an informal talk with some of its staff, treat them to some kopi or something.

I have not taken any position on this counter.

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19-Dec-2013 17:03

SMRT / SMRT

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I can share my view here but I can't teach you what to do, cos I don't know your risk appetite, how long you are willing to wait, your portfolio, your strategy etc. You need to make the decision on your own.

My TP of 76cents is for the next 6 months (1 years when I first issue my TP) not for long term. In long term, share prices might rise due to many other factors irrelevant to company fundamental e.g. Inflation, overall optimistic sentiment etc.

But if you are currently not in SMRT, my advice is stay away from it. Eroding fundamental and I do not see any sign of reversal.

minion ( Date: 19-Dec-2013 09:58) Posted:

what should I do, I have some bought at 1.74. thanks

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17-Dec-2013 18:32

Renaissance United / Neglected, Illiquid, Undervalue, Recovery counter

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Unfortunately, I am looking at the same trough too => 1.4

dekmelvie ( Date: 17-Dec-2013 18:27) Posted:

.014

Bigmama ( Date: 17-Dec-2013 14:24) Posted:

Hope this is the lowest ipco can go.

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17-Dec-2013 17:58

Sheng Siong / Sheng Siong

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Lol Covered already :)

11111111111 ( Date: 17-Dec-2013 17:52) Posted:

careful for this, possible D train.................................................tunnel lost light.

Rosesyrup ( Date: 17-Dec-2013 14:57) Posted:

XD, convenience shops cannot expect so much? Want good service must pay more. Maybe Coldstorage?

Different market different service level, cannot compare. What matters is whether they are profitable.

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17-Dec-2013 14:57

Sheng Siong / Sheng Siong

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Juzztrade ( Date: 17-Dec-2013 14:13) Posted:

Had not experienced any pleasant shopping at this outlets

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17-Dec-2013 13:26

Sheng Siong / Sheng Siong

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My TP of 58cents breached!!!!

Rosesyrup ( Date: 12-Oct-2013 19:12) Posted:

Maybank cut its TP for Sheng Siong to $0.58, which is exactly the same TP I have given to Sheng Siong 2 month ago!!!!

You may verify from my previous posting in this forum (just scroll down).

Maybank KE rates Sheng Siong Group a 'sell"

Analyst: James Koh

No growth on the horizon, cut to SELL

Sheng Siong is a single-market, single-category supermarket operator in Singapore.

As the third-largest player in a mature market, there is limited potential for growth on the horizon, barring a significant change in its business strategy.

While we admire Sheng Siong as a well-run company with great efficiency, this hardly justifies the stock?s current lofty valuations of 22x PER.

Implied dividend yield of just 4% can be achieved elsewhere.

Downgrade from HOLD to SELL.

Share price: SGD0.645. Target price: SGD0.58 (previously 0.74)

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15-Dec-2013 22:22

Renaissance United / Neglected, Illiquid, Undervalue, Recovery counter

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Ok shall see in six months time.

If any bear appears, my take is it will end within 2 months.

Just to share my personal economy forecast:

Bear likely when FED give certain answer as to when it will withdraw QE => most probably Mid of Feb.
Market plunge straight for 2 weeks
After 2 weeks, market show sign of recovery
Fully recover to current level in 5th weeks.
After than bull.
During bear, rich people and funds will take the opportunity to unload dividend counters and switch to cyclical counters. Sign to watch out for=> % fall in dividend counters vs % fall in cyclical counters.
Strategy=> > > > > > PICK UP cyclical counters.

Economy is recovering for sure and fundamental is there. Just my take. We shall find out in a few months time.

Bigmama ( Date: 15-Dec-2013 21:36) Posted:

Mark my words and one year later I will prove to you I am no BS like iso.

Bull will end within 6 months. A long bear winter is coming.

Bigmama ( Date: 15-Dec-2013 21:13) Posted:

It also appear to me that you may not have seen or experience a bear cycle

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15-Dec-2013 21:12

Renaissance United / Neglected, Illiquid, Undervalue, Recovery counter

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Erm, actually I am bearish aganist ISKANDAR project, not specifically aganist Albedo.

As for IPCO, I am bullish on all energy relevant counters as my forecast shown economy to recover in 2014.

In fact around 50% of my portfolio is in energy counters. IPCO only takes up 10% of my port.

Shall give my portfolio some time to prove its worthiness.

Bigmama ( Date: 15-Dec-2013 21:04) Posted:

Lol. I know someone just like you. Either super bullish or super bearish. You have so many reason against albedo to be bearish.
What is the reason for such a bullish view on ipco?

Rosesyrup ( Date: 15-Dec-2013 20:28) Posted:

Lol....yeap.....6.2cents to be exact

Wait a bit? Give it a year.

Haha, I am investor not day trader. Don't mind holding so long as the return is good.

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15-Dec-2013 20:28

Renaissance United / Neglected, Illiquid, Undervalue, Recovery counter

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Lol....yeap.....6.2cents to be exact

Wait a bit? Give it a year.

Haha, I am investor not day trader. Don't mind holding so long as the return is good.

Bigmama ( Date: 15-Dec-2013 20:23) Posted:

Rose, still bullish on ipco? Don't think can reach your 6.4 cents target.

Rosesyrup ( Date: 15-Dec-2013 19:46) Posted:

True, always diversify and limit exposure to any specific counter

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15-Dec-2013 19:46

Renaissance United / Neglected, Illiquid, Undervalue, Recovery counter

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True, always diversify and limit exposure to any specific counter.

leeeta ( Date: 15-Dec-2013 16:28) Posted:

Bro, dont throw good money after bad. :)

Lucky03 ( Date: 15-Dec-2013 14:59) Posted:

Will go with some more at 1.5c -1.6

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14-Dec-2013 23:49

Keppel Reit / K-REIT

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Lol That is exactly what I thought so too, but marubozu has not answer my query yet.

jackson5 ( Date: 14-Dec-2013 22:02) Posted:

Why only talk about gearing 43% but not interest cover of 4.8x ? unless the interest expenses increase by 480% then DPU will be wipe out . Keppel reit can get very low interest rate than many other reits because Keppel is a big reputable company, banks want their business. K reit also refinanced some debt , no more refinancing till 2015.

If interest rate go up , it means economy is good, rentals will also go up . No problem at all.

marubozu1688 ( Date: 14-Dec-2013 21:44) Posted:

Be careful on Keppel REIT.

Gain in the distribution yield can be totally wiped out from the initial capital outlay!

http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/keppel-reit/keppel-reit-continue-to-fall/

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13-Dec-2013 17:59

SMRT / SMRT

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Either sell or don't touch.

Cos even below $1, still very risky. This company's fundamental eroding for sure. The only fortunate thing is: this is a cash cow company, won't collaspe anytime soon.

IF you really really want to hold dividend stocks, go for SPH. Since this is SMRT forum, I won't go further. If you like to know when to buy into SPH, pm me.

lingua101 ( Date: 13-Dec-2013 17:51) Posted:

so should sell and rebuy it at below $1?

Rosesyrup ( Date: 12-Dec-2013 21:52) Posted:

LOL

Make money not = thrive.
The problem is: They won't restructure their man power usage.
There are good reason why I am confident about my tp, which is close to TPs set by all other houses. If almost everyone has similar TP, it says something about the credibility of that TP. Also as compared to many MNCs, SMRT business model is not too hard to understand and valuate.

So far 4 months since my first sell call. Price fell from $1.4 to only $1.18.

Lets just give my TP another 8months, I am confident it would be near, if not breach my TP.

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13-Dec-2013 13:17

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Still my Sunny is being replaced :(

Rosesyrup ( Date: 13-Dec-2013 13:14) Posted:

Oh Ok lol

Octavia ( Date: 13-Dec-2013 13:11) Posted:

Can you read the article properly.He is replaced by Soon.

There must be reasons for the replacement.Market ppl shld know the real reasons

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13-Dec-2013 13:14

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Oh Ok lol

Octavia ( Date: 13-Dec-2013 13:11) Posted:

Can you read the article properly.He is replaced by Soon.

There must be reasons for the replacement.Market ppl shld know the real reasons.

Rosesyrup ( Date: 13-Dec-2013 12:43) Posted:

Why replace Sunny with Army guy?

Sunny is so much more experienced and smarter. They expect the army duo to start negotiating about land leasing with some African government

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13-Dec-2013 12:43

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Why replace Sunny with Army guy?

Sunny is so much more experienced and smarter. They expect the army duo to start negotiating about land leasing with some African government?

Octavia ( Date: 13-Dec-2013 12:39) Posted:

Sunny Verghese steps down as IE Singapore chairman

SUNNY Verghese will step down as chairman of IE Singapore on December 31 this year, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Friday.

He will be replaced by Soon Moon Ming, who is currently IE Singapore's deputy chairman, with effect from Jan 1, 2014.

Mr Verghese, who is group managing director and chief executive officer (CEO) of Olam International, was appointed chairman on April 22, 2008. During his tenure, IE Singapore established new strategic relationships through the opening of five new overseas centres in Accra, Ghana Istanbul, Turkey Johannesburg, South Africa Yangon, Myanmar and Wuhan, China.

Two new members have also been added to IE's board. They are Lim Tuang Liang, a HQ Air Combat Command commander from the Republic of Singapore Air Force and Tan Chong Meng, group CEO of PSA International.

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13-Dec-2013 00:04

SMRT / SMRT

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Rosesyrup ( Date: 12-Dec-2013 21:52) Posted:

LOL

Make money not = thrive.
The problem is: They won't restructure their man power usage.
There are good reason why I am confident about my tp, which is close to TPs set by all other houses. If almost everyone has similar TP, it says something about the credibility of that TP. Also as compared to many MNCs, SMRT business model is not too hard to understand and valuate.

So far 4 months since my first sell call. Price fell from $1.4 to only $1.18.

Lets just give my TP another 8months, I am confident it would be near, if not breach my TP.

Wisely ( Date: 12-Dec-2013 21:33) Posted:

This company can actually make $$. But the problem is they hire too many senior managers/directors to do nothing. All they need is fire those extra people (not joking), they are taking a huge chunck of pay from the company. The CEO just need to focus on their core business and dont think too much can already

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