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Banyan Tree
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Banyan Tree - A takeover target?
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Ray12888
Veteran |
10-Jan-2018 19:40
Yells: "MoneyInTheChart com / blog" |
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Next wave of uptrend is gonna start soon. | ||||
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phil1314
Senior |
10-Jan-2018 11:09
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Buying continues today to be aggressive as trying to break 0.64 with only a single trade of 100 shares done
Verbal approval given by Vietnam minister to operate a casino in Hue and seeking out US partner Chairman Ho is a proven successful builder of a strong hotel brand and is now proving to be a good deal maker Very interesting to observe and follow his success stories Continues to remain invested
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Ray12888
Veteran |
08-Jan-2018 19:39
Yells: "MoneyInTheChart com / blog" |
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Today price action is very strong. I entered my stop buy order for tomorrow. Hopefully, it will get triggered. |
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EveryoneHuatLah
Senior |
08-Jan-2018 15:08
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Sold at 0.63 I am out for now, good luck to the rest |
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Punkist
Senior |
05-Jan-2018 18:04
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I sold at 0.61, all the best guys! | ||||
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phil1314
Senior |
05-Jan-2018 13:10
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It?s a privatisation action between a elderly man and a infinite group, which you think is more likely.
The man also got to consider his brothers and family?s interests. I think is a takeover between two groups - Qatar/Accor vs Vanke , and the Ho family benefits the most
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phil1314
Senior |
05-Jan-2018 13:06
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It has and closed at 0.62 on 4 January
Today is consolidating As the $24 million bonds since 21 Dec can be converted to 40,000,000 shares it is interesting to see how long it will trade within 60 cents to 70 range before the bond is converted likely in months of March or June, then prices will drop after conversion, hopefully prices can extend handsomely above 70 cents before the conversion
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Punkist
Senior |
03-Jan-2018 21:28
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Lol Just privatize it already | ||||
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EveryoneHuatLah
Senior |
03-Jan-2018 16:17
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Think the shareprice will recover to 0.60 soon | ||||
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Warster
Member |
24-Dec-2017 01:52
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Yes but it has been made known a while back by HKP that no privatisation will be done till notes mature. A privatisation by Qatar group however, changes the complexion of things.
A privatisation bid by the man himself (HKP) seems the more likely resolution imo. And unless banyan drops to 40c (50% of nav) I don't see it happening at least till 2020.
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Punkist
Senior |
23-Dec-2017 07:15
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Privatizing got nothing to do with notes, bonds or debt right? If a company owes $5mill before privatization, it still owes $5mill after privatization, |
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Warster
Member |
23-Dec-2017 00:23
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I personally think that banyan can have a market cap of more than 1billion in the next 2-3 years especially when you compare their scale to peers from the hospitality and developers' space.
That being said, privatisation is only likely after 2020 when all the notes have matured, but it would make sense given the small public float |
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Punkist
Senior |
22-Dec-2017 22:58
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Thanks for the explanation, just wanted to make sure they are not recklessly taking more debt to fund an expansion they can' t profitably handle. I think it' s at a right critical size now, hope they can privatize it and release shareholder value | ||||
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Warster
Member |
22-Dec-2017 15:38
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From 2013-2015, Banyan tree issued notes with interest rates ranging 4.75-5.8% so as to buy land, build hotels and fund their activities. It was a bad move on the part of the management, and they know it as well, and have progressively shifted from an asset heavy approach to one that focuses on their brand and management based fees which do not require heavy capex. If anything, that explains their collaboration with vanke and Accor. They build, Banyan manage. Current notes liabilities stand at around 300 million. Bank loan is another 300mil. And as it stands it will be fully payable by 2020. im not too worried about this part to be honest since the worst is over (notes issued later were issued at a lower interest) and so far, Banyan is operating with a positive cash flow even after accounting for interest. Debt is not too much of an issue if the net worth is more than the debt. And as of current, price/nav is at 0.69 so I don' t think the management is overextending in that sense. This nav is yet to take into account intangible assets like branding and other land prices that were calculated at cost price (no appreciation) which willl put banyan tree at 0.65-ish. Good job pointing this out. But pls dyodd i got some numbers from the top of my head since I' m on holiday and haven' t got my laptop with me(but thereabouts i think)
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Punkist
Senior |
22-Dec-2017 04:43
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Hi guys, just wanted to check, from the financial statement published in 3Q 2017, banyan is paying around $7mill quarterly of interest. If the interest rate is around 4%, work backwards that is $700mill of debt? ($7millx4q/4*100=700mill) Their net income for 3Q is approx 20mill. Suppose you use that to pay the debt of 700mill, that is hardly a drop in the ocean. The company went on a development spree, seems like the more development they have, the more liability it becomes while the revenue cannot catch up as fast? Is my understanding correct? |
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Warster
Member |
20-Dec-2017 15:14
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Yes. From a balance sheet point of view, the injection of cash will improve its NAV since it is a premium to current prices. From the last report, the injection of cash will be used to pare down debt which will in turn decrease the amount used for interest repayment, so yes, it is a good thing
At this point, it is better to dyodd. Personally I'm awaiting the next agm to hear what are the concrete future plans to decide whether to continue buying (literally) into this story. |
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EveryoneHuatLah
Senior |
20-Dec-2017 14:41
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Sounds good that there is fresh capital of 24 million into the business, should be good news right? | ||||
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mariners
Senior |
20-Dec-2017 11:56
Yells: "FA tells me what to buy, TA tells me when to buy" |
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share will become common share on 21st, dilute with the existing ones. just that they exercise it all at 0.6. I was thinking will it be significant, but with just 5%, guess no big impact.
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phil1314
Senior |
20-Dec-2017 09:46
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Does that mean Accor can exercise 40,000,000 shares conversion in different amounts at different times after 21 Dec?
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Warster
Member |
20-Dec-2017 03:35
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If anything, it is supposed to nudge the price towards the $0.6 level since shares are issued at a premium to current price. But since it is just 5% of oustanding shares, will not have much of an impact. Today, Phillip has also issued a buy call for Banyan Tree citing it as a value play. More good things to come. Sold a small lot today as a trading play, and for those interested, got DBS vickers as a counter party again. |
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