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aputako Member	07-Aug-2013 16:24        aputako About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Come $0.217, coming to placement shares price.
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SFGuyRuleZ Veteran	04-Aug-2013 03:36        SFGuyRuleZ About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "You are your own master.."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Feel I have the need to be responsible and clarify. I value Hiap Tong as a growing company, and that's why I added back retained earnings per share to intrinsic value, based on the assumption that every dollar of retained earnings can translate to every dollar of market value. Hiap Tong's poor profits in 2010 and 2011 is due to over supply of cranes which leads to low rental income and revenue. Another reason is because of high depreciation which eats a lot into the profits. In the most recent financial report, we can see that revenue has returned, meaning over supply and low rental problem should have eased. Also, from the recent capital which Hiap Tong gained from the placement of new shares, new PPE would be bought, meaning depreciation would ease also. Moreover, from the recent construction boom and oil and marine industry boom, and since EBITDA margin for Hiap Tong has been relatively constant for the past 5 years, there should be more revenue which can translate to more profits. Just sharing my analysis and with no intention of influencing anything. I am not vested heavily in this, therefore no reason to be also if any.. SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 29-Jul-2013 22:08) Posted: Posted this in Vard just now, shall post here also.. Recently consulted a few of my friends working in finance line and asked them about Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF) and fair value. From what I understood, for a stock that is highly liquid and with high volume, retained earnings/share can be added to DCF to obtain a fair value, provided the business is on-going in the long run. As for how discount factor is obtained, it varies differently for different people but from my experiences accumulated over the years, 0.12 is a rather good discount factor I use (taking into account risk-free rate, risk premium and inflation rate) often for companies below $5billion market capitalization and with relatively good current ratio, acid-test ratio and debt to equity ratio. For STI-listed and stable companies with low debt and high cash flow (e.g Keppel and ST Engineering), I realise a discount factor of 0.06 or less is used, which is reasonable as low risk => low yield. Therefore, for Hiap Tong now based on current results and assume current earnings are at least maintained and taking into account no growth (positive or negative), and that business is on-going in the long run: Based on discount factor 0.12 and g = 0, DCF/ share ~= 0.17. retained earnings/ share ~= 0.16. My fair value/ share for Hiap Tong now = 0.33. I believe Hiap Tong is a good growing company and as I mentioned before, with the oil and marine industry and onshore oil and gas industry blooming, I foresee high demand for haulage and crane services. However, Hiap Tong has a quick ratio of 0.65 but a debt to equity ratio of ~1.168 (if I am not wrong). This means Hiap Tong may have difficulties clearing debts in the short run, but is financially stable and low-debt in the long run. With the recent placement of shares, ~50% is used for debt purposes and the other ~50% for purchase of new PPE( Plants, Property, Equipment). This means short-term wise, it should not pose much of a debt problem if any. In the long term, in my opinion, I think it is a good company definitely worthing much more than 0.33 or 0.4. But that's just my own opinion. Do your own due diligence before investing.. Hope I clear any misunderstanding if any.. =) SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 23-Jul-2013 20:25) Posted: Hiap Tong looks like it is on a downtrend and if it doesn't close back at 0.295 or above tomorrow, there might be a chance it will fall further and next support is at 0.265. And I want to take the opportunity to correct what I have posted.. Fundamental value refers to intrinsic value/ discounted cash flow valuation. As for fair value or target price, it refers to a reasonable price you would pay to own a stock, and it varies accordingly to different people.. Based on most recent results for Hiap Tong: net asset value/ share ~= 0.23. Based on discount factor 0.12 and taking into account no growth (positive or negative, i.e. g = 0), intrinsic value ~= 0.17. Fair Value / Target price = ?? (You decide..) Thanks and cheers!!
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hopinj Member	02-Aug-2013 16:10        hopinj About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Only 1 direction for this counter....south...regret BIG time buying it... hopinj      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 16:08) Posted: Only 1 dirextion for t louis_leecs      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 15:51) Posted: Short covering on time also give change for those is exit,,,0.25cts,,
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hopinj Member	02-Aug-2013 16:08        hopinj About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Only 1 dirextion for t louis_leecs      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 15:51) Posted: Short covering on time also give change for those is exit,,,0.25cts,,
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louis_leecs Elite	02-Aug-2013 15:51        louis_leecs About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "half cash"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Short covering on time also give change for those is exit,,,0.25cts,,
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hopinj Member	02-Aug-2013 15:43        hopinj About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thought it has been oversold but no rebounce till today... :( louis_leecs      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 15:38) Posted: Oversold Liao,,,hope rebound soon
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louis_leecs Elite	02-Aug-2013 15:38        louis_leecs About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "half cash"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Oversold Liao,,,hope rebound soon
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Dividend_Warrior Senior	02-Aug-2013 15:14        Dividend_Warrior About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "I am getting $1100 per month in dividends :)"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cut Loss!!! ru2bz4me      ( Date: 30-Jul-2013 20:43) Posted: ex-D on 02-aug-13. what is the take?
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hopinj Member	31-Jul-2013 16:48        hopinj About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	this counter is hopeless...everyday down and down nonstop...
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ru2bz4me Member	30-Jul-2013 20:43        ru2bz4me About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	ex-D on 02-aug-13. what is the take?
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hopinj Member	30-Jul-2013 15:46        hopinj About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	weak siah...going down again?!?
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seanpent Supreme	30-Jul-2013 15:11        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	has Hiap Tong completed it's technical rebound and attempting to test the recent lows in the coming days ?
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SFGuyRuleZ Veteran	29-Jul-2013 22:08        SFGuyRuleZ About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "You are your own master.."
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Posted this in Vard just now, shall post here also.. Recently consulted a few of my friends working in finance line and asked them about Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF) and fair value. From what I understood, for a stock that is highly liquid and with high volume, retained earnings/share can be added to DCF to obtain a fair value, provided the business is on-going in the long run. As for how discount factor is obtained, it varies differently for different people but from my experiences accumulated over the years, 0.12 is a rather good discount factor I use (taking into account risk-free rate, risk premium and inflation rate) often for companies below $5billion market capitalization and with relatively good current ratio, acid-test ratio and debt to equity ratio. For STI-listed and stable companies with low debt and high cash flow (e.g Keppel and ST Engineering), I realise a discount factor of 0.06 or less is used, which is reasonable as low risk => low yield. Therefore, for Hiap Tong now based on current results and assume current earnings are at least maintained and taking into account no growth (positive or negative), and that business is on-going in the long run: Based on discount factor 0.12 and g = 0, DCF/ share ~= 0.17. retained earnings/ share ~= 0.16. My fair value/ share for Hiap Tong now = 0.33. I believe Hiap Tong is a good growing company and as I mentioned before, with the oil and marine industry and onshore oil and gas industry blooming, I foresee high demand for haulage and crane services. However, Hiap Tong has a quick ratio of 0.65 but a debt to equity ratio of ~1.168 (if I am not wrong). This means Hiap Tong may have difficulties clearing debts in the short run, but is financially stable and low-debt in the long run. With the recent placement of shares, ~50% is used for debt purposes and the other ~50% for purchase of new PPE( Plants, Property, Equipment). This means short-term wise, it should not pose much of a debt problem if any. In the long term, in my opinion, I think it is a good company definitely worthing much more than 0.33 or 0.4. But that's just my own opinion. Do your own due diligence before investing.. Hope I clear any misunderstanding if any.. =) SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 23-Jul-2013 20:25) Posted: Hiap Tong looks like it is on a downtrend and if it doesn't close back at 0.295 or above tomorrow, there might be a chance it will fall further and next support is at 0.265. And I want to take the opportunity to correct what I have posted.. Fundamental value refers to intrinsic value/ discounted cash flow valuation. As for fair value or target price, it refers to a reasonable price you would pay to own a stock, and it varies accordingly to different people.. Based on most recent results for Hiap Tong: net asset value/ share ~= 0.23. Based on discount factor 0.12 and taking into account no growth (positive or negative, i.e. g = 0), intrinsic value ~= 0.17. Fair Value / Target price = ?? (You decide..) Thanks and cheers!!
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SFGuyRuleZ Veteran	24-Jul-2013 20:12        SFGuyRuleZ About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "You are your own master.."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Looks well supported at 0.285.. SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 23-Jul-2013 20:25) Posted: Hiap Tong looks like it is on a downtrend and if it doesn't close back at 0.295 or above tomorrow, there might be a chance it will fall further and next support is at 0.265. And I want to take the opportunity to correct what I have posted.. Fundamental value refers to intrinsic value/ discounted cash flow valuation. As for fair value or target price, it refers to a reasonable price you would pay to own a stock, and it varies accordingly to different people.. Based on most recent results for Hiap Tong: net asset value/ share ~= 0.23. Based on discount factor 0.12 and taking into account no growth (positive or negative, i.e. g = 0), intrinsic value ~= 0.17. Fair Value / Target price = ?? (You decide..) Thanks and cheers!!
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bishan22 Supreme	24-Jul-2013 07:12        bishan22 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Down trending, selling pressure not over yet. Longists have to wait for it. Good luck.  SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 23-Jul-2013 21:36) Posted: Hiap Tong is a good growing company. My personal fair value for Hiap Tong is 0.36. It may worth even much more in the future, especially when the oil and marine industry is blooming and there will be a high demand for cranes and haulage service. Just my opinion.. =)
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SFGuyRuleZ Veteran	23-Jul-2013 21:36        SFGuyRuleZ About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "You are your own master.."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hiap Tong is a good growing company. My personal fair value for Hiap Tong is 0.36. It may worth even much more in the future, especially when the oil and marine industry is blooming and there will be a high demand for cranes and haulage service. Just my opinion.. =)
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SFGuyRuleZ Veteran	23-Jul-2013 20:25        SFGuyRuleZ About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "You are your own master.."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hiap Tong looks like it is on a downtrend and if it doesn't close back at 0.295 or above tomorrow, there might be a chance it will fall further and next support is at 0.265. And I want to take the opportunity to correct what I have posted.. Fundamental value refers to intrinsic value/ discounted cash flow valuation. As for fair value or target price, it refers to a reasonable price you would pay to own a stock, and it varies accordingly to different people.. Based on most recent results for Hiap Tong: net asset value/ share ~= 0.23. Based on discount factor 0.12 and taking into account no growth (positive or negative, i.e. g = 0), intrinsic value ~= 0.17. Fair Value / Target price = ?? (You decide..) Thanks and cheers!!
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giganticmoney Member	18-Jul-2013 19:05        giganticmoney About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	$0 shorts, looks like reversing alr..
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novice_trader Elite	18-Jul-2013 18:52        novice_trader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hahaha... Think we in same boat... Interra holding at 0.48 then sell off last two days, today? Chiong up 0.51... Think our timing is wrong... giganticmoney      ( Date: 18-Jul-2013 17:24) Posted: lol, that happens to me quite often. Like yoma which i hold at 0.385 for like half a year den finally it moved to 0.445 so i sell it after that he rocketed... Interra also bought at 0.375 sell only it rocketed to 0.50++. So im gonna be patient with this bugger novice_trader      ( Date: 18-Jul-2013 17:01) Posted: Nv ending bloody for this counter... Trap so many ppl and price nv end going down... Wait I sell it will chiong up...
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giganticmoney Member	18-Jul-2013 17:24        giganticmoney About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	lol, that happens to me quite often. Like yoma which i hold at 0.385 for like half a year den finally it moved to 0.445 so i sell it after that he rocketed... Interra also bought at 0.375 sell only it rocketed to 0.50++. So im gonna be patient with this bugger novice_trader      ( Date: 18-Jul-2013 17:01) Posted: Nv ending bloody for this counter... Trap so many ppl and price nv end going down... Wait I sell it will chiong up...
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