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YZJFH - potentially rewarding
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tch77_pt75
Veteran |
15-Nov-2022 22:37
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What happened thereafter? Maybe history repeats?
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unclebond
Master |
15-Nov-2022 20:06
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Thanks. | ||||
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volvo125
Master |
15-Nov-2022 19:30
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I shall attempt to answer your question based on my understanding from the information derived from the Introductory document issued in Apr, the 1H22 result and the fact sheet issued in Aug. I will assume the " loans" that you are referring to in your statement " YZJFH loans and ..... " are DI (debt investments) and not the negligible S/T or L/T loans in the balance sheet. > 90% of the DI would matured within 1 year as at 31 Dec 2021, and this DI valued at ~$3.514b as at 31 Dec 2021 also represented ~70% of what DI used to be managed at in FY2020 and before. YZJ was already taking steps then in FY2021 to systematically reduce DI to ~70%. The targets for DI by end FY2022 (end of this year) are to be reduced further to 50%, and by end FY2023 (end of next year) to 30%, of YFH ongoing total porfolio value. Note, the targets are now pegged against the YOY porfolio values, not the earlier FY2020 reference value. Note, also, that this systematic reduction process will involve redeemptions of matured DI that will release out the funds and then the additions of new DI with the partial use of these released funds, to ultimately meet the 50% and 30% targets in FY2022 and FY2023 respectively. This is a dynamic and ever ongoing redeemptions-additions-redeemptions-additions business process to ultimately control DI at 30% of YFH total portfolio going forward, not a one off full redeemption by end FY2022 and then end of story. DI stood at $2.538b (~57%) as at 1H22 and will likely end the year at the 50% target of ~$2.22b by end FY22. ~$480m or 11% of YFH total portfolio was already in SG as at 1H22, mainly denominated in USD in the form of cash or cash equivalent or already in funds. A further 11% or ~$480m has been targeted for deployment in SG by end FY22, to make YFH offshore investment to 22% by end FY22. This segment of offshore fund will then gradually be increased from 22% to 50% of YFH total porfolio from FY23 onwards, indicatively on a ~3year time span. This offshore fund could be invested in SG, Regionally and Globally. Ultimately, 50% of YFH total porfolio will be invested in PRC for the " forseeable" long term in which DI will account for 30% and Others (Pte and Public Equities, PRC funds ...) will acoount for 20%. Will RenYL moves > 50% of YFH funds to offshore years later ? Time will tell. I vaguely remember Liu Hua during the L& T event mentioned that YFH typically maintains ~20% of its total porforlio in some form of cash and cash equivalent and yield enhancement products (~28.8% as reflected in 1H22 report). Not sure how this ~20% is going to be maintained between the PRC and the Offshore funds going forward ... Not sure what you meant by your question on " their cash is fully intact ? " .... why would you doubt YFH is ' not' intact or not real ?
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unclebond
Master |
15-Nov-2022 08:17
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Good morning to all. Please correct me if I' m wrong. YZJFH' s loans and funds will matured or fully redeemed by end of 2022 ($$3 Billion) in China and S1 Billion already in Singapore. Then they will redeploy most of the fund in Singapore and the rest of the world within a 3 years framework. Correct? That is to say, their CASH fund is fully intact. True? |
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Amateurinvestor
Veteran |
15-Nov-2022 07:55
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If really 20% go up, the shorts will be pissing in their pants
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vicloo
Supreme |
15-Nov-2022 07:27
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Yes, impress us with a 20% jump 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
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Amateurinvestor
Veteran |
15-Nov-2022 07:24
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Closely = closer (typo)
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Amateurinvestor
Veteran |
15-Nov-2022 07:12
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If can up for 3rd straight day again then can see some light, am still quiet confident that there will be a very violent rebound closely to the date where they announce the dividends. | ||||
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tch77_pt75
Veteran |
15-Nov-2022 06:56
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Then it will be big fish eating small fish. Western fund will trash the eastern fund, especially China company in Singapore.
When it comes to fund management, the western countries will dominate and triumph.
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tch77_pt75
Veteran |
14-Nov-2022 23:20
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Based on this trend, which happen again and again, there is no way to prevent the share price from dropping. I believe YZJFH ( an eastern share ) has got more to learn from the Ang Mo who are more experience than the current mgt team.
Just my personal thoughts.
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volvo125
Master |
14-Nov-2022 23:09
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YFH, or any listco for that matter, has no control or say on who can or cannot come on board to buy up or sell down the shares in the open market. And if you do hear what Dominic Lim (head of sgx investor relations) had said during the recent L&T event that sgx will supervise the market based on the spirit of market forces, then short sellings regardless how blatantly severe are certainly non transgression acts as long as these activities meet the sgx regulatory guidelines, as in shortists got access to borrowed shares when they short, or they took the penalties for their naked shorts upon contract due. This is the nature of sgx market ... we just have to accept it ...
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ss2017.
Supreme |
14-Nov-2022 22:03
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At this point in time, YZJFH share price 35c is almost at year low (69c to 31c). Many uncertainties ahead.
Imagine next year or three years down the road, this dark horse will appear to be a winner, share price achieve 2x or 3x of current price. Imagine also YZJFH unfortunately hammered down by certain circumstances was an rare event, happened once a life time. I can draw learned lessons from these eventful incidents : 1. YZJFH in future should consider seriously accept what type of substantial share holders especially must study angmoh fund profile. Take them in for joint prosperity and joint misery. 2. Any new listed companies must consider sgx short sellings are aggressive. Daily short sell volume occupied high percentage of trade yet regulator didn't notice it, it happened to YZJFH.
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Dannkh
Master |
14-Nov-2022 19:58
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Today, Yzjfh & Yzjsh are the top 5 companies with short-sell volumes. Yzjfh short-sell is abt 14.5m shares at abt 35c average. Dyodd. | ||||
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volvo125
Master |
14-Nov-2022 19:13
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Every good coy that performs well will almost certainly have some form of very obvious strong leadership behind the scene, whether this leadership comes from the chairman or from the ceo, and backed by a strong and relevantly experienced board plus management team. So Ren' s convenient assumption of his strategic commanding posture in the background with the younger Toe fronting all the rollouts is a good combo in my opinion. Without a strong visionary and pragmatic leadership, indecisions and politics will rise and lead the coy to nowhere. Ren and Toe have a very clear game plan that has been translated into strategic milestones in the fact sheets. It was very clear that Ren wanted YFH to succeed at the very onset. Ren retained ~$530m of DI (with collection problems due to various reasons) at YZJ to give YFH a clean start. He also went on to carve out from YZJ a $770m cash to fund YFH ongoing transformation at the spin off. 260mil shares were progressively bought back in past 6 months at a cost of $100m and the SBB is still ongoing. And he has just come out again to unilaterally declare that he would increase his stake as well as to seek a fresh SBB mandate once the current mandate is maxed out. Do I have reason to doubt what he said ? No ... I seriously think he meant it and I believe he is resolute and has a strong conviction to lift YFH up. Not exactly sure why the GwaiLo dumped YFH in an en mass exodus ... may be like what you said these angmoh didnt understand him and buy his story ... or may be YFH was simply unlucky to have been spun off during a turbulent time plagued by PRC property crisis and economic slowdown plus the involuntary global capital flights triggered by the appreciating USD. And Yes .... agree with you totally that if YFH were still a pte coy, our small money would never get a chance to ride with this dark horse.
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YibaoI
Senior |
12-Nov-2022 01:56
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Saw this posted just yesterday and think to share. If you can read chinese.
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emailpeter
Veteran |
11-Nov-2022 22:27
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Once again, big thanks to you @volvo125 for the insightful digestion of the proponent's ideas of how they want shape their company. The Edge interview solidifies the thought process & aims of its commanding chairman, whether we like it or not.
He solidly feels (w 21+10+9%), that he owns the entire company, at his whim & fancy of how he wants steer it. In this case he has disclosed that he is continuedly leveraging on 2 notions (interalia more). 1. His decades of in-house experience in ship building to know steel to ships to shipowners income streams. Thereby using FH funds to plough into ability to assist growth of ships & leasing income. "Maritime fund" 2. His Jiangsu extensive network of HNW tycoons, that will allow for AUM growth, and raise funds for his overseas expansion (albeit unproven if he can excel at rest of world income generation). We Chinese can relate, we buy his integrity more than the product. But the gwailo's (and their BB funds) won't understand a morsel of square root of that. If FH was a private co, our small funds won't get a chance to be part. As a listed co, subject to gyrations of BB, we hv to endure. In nutshell, we are betting on his ability to leverage upon his contacts. As a Chinaman, I choose to believe him. Likewise you do.
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Heng5335
Member |
11-Nov-2022 20:45
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you have good foresight
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volvo125
Master |
11-Nov-2022 19:22
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Many people likely miss the significance of QDLP in Ren' s interview because there is no loud tangible value being translated into numbers or dollars, ... yet. A full QDLP status with both the licence and quota on hand will allow YFH to raise RMB from within China (within Jiangyin in particular, within thre Jiangsu Province) for offshore investment. QDLP is the key to signing on more family offices from the 600 ultra rich familes in Jiangyin (which will increase YFH AUM through 3rd party fund), as well as a springboard to accelerate the ongoing offshore investment pace towards 50% of YFH total assets in a shorter time frame. Securing the QDLP licence will therefore have a very significant positive financial implication on YFH P& L and Balance Sheet going forward. | ||||
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
11-Nov-2022 18:55
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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You are right @volvo125 I guess I am just not used to seeing a Chairman be so loose with describing forecasts and what he intends to do so publicly and in a relatively smaller publications article. Would be very happy to see EPS at $0.06 for FY22 but am cautious on their 2H22 performance. The two reports from Jul and Aug could be relatively outdated in terms of earnings forecasts given the more recent deterioiration of macro fundamentals in China.
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volvo125
Master |
11-Nov-2022 18:38
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Er ... No, RenYL was only giving an example based on the past 3 years known steady EPS performance if the 40% payout ratio were to apply. Toe had already guided the FY22 NPAT at ~$220m with the analysts at Lim& Tan (report dated 12 Jul 2022) and CIMB (report dated 15 Aug 2022). The estimated EPS for FY22 will likely work out to be $0.06 at the latest known float of 3690m. Again ... No, an Insider is free to buy the company shares as long as it is not during sensitive period, such as pending the release of news that are material in nature (FY and 1H release, major order wins, M& A ...etc), and also as long as he reports the transaction to SGX within stipulated time frame. So Ren can buy and say nothing until he reports, or he can say he intend to buy and then he really buy, or he can say he intend to buy but no action ... regardless, as long as his buy action does not precede an insider privileged news or event that has material effect to the coy.
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