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Latest Forum Topics / Yanlord Land    Last:0.675    +0.01  Post Reply
Yanlord just delivered a Spectacular Results
runaway
Senior
24-Nov-2018 06:50     
 
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YanLord is in joint venture with MCL to try its first foray into Singapore property development. A freehold land sold enbloc by Tulip Gardens.

Yanlord stronghold is in China. It has never set foot outside and Singapore is no easy environment, with many established and bigger players and Governements cooling measures to curb the rising prices.

Is the Chinese property sector finally beginning to crumble in the face of tighter credit conditions? Q4 and 2019   may have the answer.
 
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huathuat88888
Elite
23-Nov-2018 14:05     
 
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Anyone bought HK Land when it was $5.90 to $5.98?

: )
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huathuat88888
Elite
23-Nov-2018 11:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		No need.

I know what it is will do.

What do i gain by helping you with more confidence to buy into Yanlord ?

Why should i try to convince u ? Unless you are Hedge Fund maybe i will try to do so : )

Nothing. Zero benefit .

So you can continue to doubt Yanlord.







Sinari      ( Date: 23-Nov-2018 10:17) Posted:

Hi huathuat8888,

I dont want to doubt you but you have been talking about " the big news" . Would you mind giving more hints to strengthen confidence in " the big news" ?
 

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Sinari
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23-Nov-2018 10:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi huathuat8888,

I dont want to doubt you but you have been talking about " the big news" . Would you mind giving more hints to strengthen confidence in " the big news" ?
 
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huathuat88888
Elite
23-Nov-2018 09:26     
 
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I am not going to give so direct hinting .

When "the big news" announced by Beijing, Yanlord and Ho Bee will Shoot Up.

Of cors you can doubt me : )
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huathuat88888
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23-Nov-2018 09:20     
 
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Very funny.

If you doubt Yanlord, stay away . Dont buy.
Yanlord price will not go down or up just because you dont buy 10, 100 lot.

Or if you want to short Yanlord, most welcome.

LOL

runaway      ( Date: 23-Nov-2018 07:19) Posted:



It is indeed a steal  if a Prada is selling as a Panda.

In real life, it does not happen.  Can you get a Rolex at Casio price?

I agree that YoY is a traditional comparison. However, your argument on seasonal fluctuation like ghost quarter does not hold true for Q3 over Q2, 2017.

2017

Q2 Rev RMB4,277M Profit RMB647M

Q3 Rev RMB3,764M Profit RMB759M

Q3/Q2  Rev down (-12%), Profit up +17%.

2018

Q3/Q2  Rev down (-41%), Profit down (-39%)

I cant think of any other reason why the share is down 40% this year, despite the remarkable results over the last 5 years. Q4 may provide the answer.
 
 


Sinari      ( Date: 22-Nov-2018 22:49) Posted:

Hi runaway,

Maybe a GO is on the way? Never say never.

In business, we always compare financial performance Q on Q (i.e. Q3 last FY to Q3 this FY). This is to eliminate seasonal effect. Typically, all developers have dismal Q3 results because that period (01 Jul to 30 Sep) conincides hungry ghost festival where many buyers avoid buying house. Hospitality REITs will also clock in better revenue in Q4 due to year end holidays.

Revenue for Q4 FY2016 was 88% higher than Q3 FY2016.
Revenue for  Q4 FY2017 was 300% higher than Q3 FY2017. 
Revenue for Q3 FY2018 is RMB$5,711M. Let us just be conservative and use 88%.
Projected Q4FY2018 will be $10,737M and Full Year Revenue will be $33,000M or $33B. (ZSJ' s own target is 35B). Assuming the same cost and capital structure, the EPS can be calculated as RMB$2.646 or S$0.529. Assuming that they maintain the dividend payout ratio same as last year (i.e. 20%), we can expect a dividend of S$0.11. This will make the dividend yield at 8.5% based on today' s closing price of $1.28! by then the share price will definitely adjust upwards.

Give me a chance to buy Prada bag at Panda price now, why not? )
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runaway
Senior
23-Nov-2018 07:19     
 
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It is indeed a steal  if a Prada is selling as a Panda.

In real life, it does not happen.  Can you get a Rolex at Casio price?

I agree that YoY is a traditional comparison. However, your argument on seasonal fluctuation like ghost quarter does not hold true for Q3 over Q2, 2017.

2017

Q2 Rev RMB4,277M Profit RMB647M

Q3 Rev RMB3,764M Profit RMB759M

Q3/Q2  Rev down (-12%), Profit up +17%.

2018

Q3/Q2  Rev down (-41%), Profit down (-39%)

I cant think of any other reason why the share is down 40% this year, despite the remarkable results over the last 5 years. Q4 may provide the answer.
 
 


Sinari      ( Date: 22-Nov-2018 22:49) Posted:

Hi runaway,

Maybe a GO is on the way? Never say never.

In business, we always compare financial performance Q on Q (i.e. Q3 last FY to Q3 this FY). This is to eliminate seasonal effect. Typically, all developers have dismal Q3 results because that period (01 Jul to 30 Sep) conincides hungry ghost festival where many buyers avoid buying house. Hospitality REITs will also clock in better revenue in Q4 due to year end holidays.

Revenue for Q4 FY2016 was 88% higher than Q3 FY2016.
Revenue for  Q4 FY2017 was 300% higher than Q3 FY2017. 
Revenue for Q3 FY2018 is RMB$5,711M. Let us just be conservative and use 88%.
Projected Q4FY2018 will be $10,737M and Full Year Revenue will be $33,000M or $33B. (ZSJ' s own target is 35B). Assuming the same cost and capital structure, the EPS can be calculated as RMB$2.646 or S$0.529. Assuming that they maintain the dividend payout ratio same as last year (i.e. 20%), we can expect a dividend of S$0.11. This will make the dividend yield at 8.5% based on today' s closing price of $1.28! by then the share price will definitely adjust upwards.

Give me a chance to buy Prada bag at Panda price now, why not? )
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Qanghoo
Supreme
23-Nov-2018 00:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		So, what does it tell us?  Rev cld be, n often are, lumpy.  Thus, for property coys, timing of sales n rev recognition are  material n cld be significant.  So, assessment wld be better served by  taking into account  their portofolio of dev properties under development n those already sold n awaiting completion.  Perhaps that' s why some research hses value  property counters on RNAV.  Unfortunately, over the last few yrs, I' ve observed that there' d be  heavy selling n px compression  like immediately upon a qtrly result not compring too favourably with previous qtr or previous yr' s corresponding qtr.  To that end, seems like even heavyweights like UOL are not spared.  Also, correct me if I' m wrong, but  I thought this coy counts as its investors big wigs from UOB n Kuok?

Sinari      ( Date: 22-Nov-2018 22:49) Posted:

Hi runaway,

Maybe a GO is on the way? Never say never.

In business, we always compare financial performance Q on Q (i.e. Q3 last FY to Q3 this FY). This is to eliminate seasonal effect. Typically, all developers have dismal Q3 results because that period (01 Jul to 30 Sep) conincides hungry ghost festival where many buyers avoid buying house. Hospitality REITs will also clock in better revenue in Q4 due to year end holidays.

Revenue for Q4 FY2016 was 88% higher than Q3 FY2016.
Revenue for  Q4 FY2017 was 300% higher than Q3 FY2017. 
Revenue for Q3 FY2018 is RMB$5,711M. Let us just be conservative and use 88%.
Projected Q4FY2018 will be $10,737M and Full Year Revenue will be $33,000M or $33B. (ZSJ' s own target is 35B). Assuming the same cost and capital structure, the EPS can be calculated as RMB$2.646 or S$0.529. Assuming that they maintain the dividend payout ratio same as last year (i.e. 20%), we can expect a dividend of S$0.11. This will make the dividend yield at 8.5% based on today' s closing price of $1.28! by then the share price will definitely adjust upwards.

Give me a chance to buy Prada bag at Panda price now, why not? )
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Sinari
Member
22-Nov-2018 22:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi runaway,

Maybe a GO is on the way? Never say never.

In business, we always compare financial performance Q on Q (i.e. Q3 last FY to Q3 this FY). This is to eliminate seasonal effect. Typically, all developers have dismal Q3 results because that period (01 Jul to 30 Sep) conincides hungry ghost festival where many buyers avoid buying house. Hospitality REITs will also clock in better revenue in Q4 due to year end holidays.

Revenue for Q4 FY2016 was 88% higher than Q3 FY2016.
Revenue for  Q4 FY2017 was 300% higher than Q3 FY2017. 
Revenue for Q3 FY2018 is RMB$5,711M. Let us just be conservative and use 88%.
Projected Q4FY2018 will be $10,737M and Full Year Revenue will be $33,000M or $33B. (ZSJ' s own target is 35B). Assuming the same cost and capital structure, the EPS can be calculated as RMB$2.646 or S$0.529. Assuming that they maintain the dividend payout ratio same as last year (i.e. 20%), we can expect a dividend of S$0.11. This will make the dividend yield at 8.5% based on today' s closing price of $1.28! by then the share price will definitely adjust upwards.

Give me a chance to buy Prada bag at Panda price now, why not? )
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runaway
Senior
22-Nov-2018 21:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes, the numbers shine, but

If it is a Prada brand,  why is it  sold as a Panda brand?

If I were  ZSH owning 70% and the stock is severly undevalued, I will make a GO and take it private.

Q3 shows a significant drop in revenue and profit as compared to Q2. Is the tide turning the other way?

 
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huathuat88888
Elite
22-Nov-2018 13:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		U are right about the 1st 2nd Tier Cities.

China have BIG " internal migration " 3rd 4th tier cties middle class moving to 1st 2nd tier cities.

Much like Sporeans moving from jurong west to bukit timah tanglin east coast ...etc

A lot of Yangzhou Hefei mudde class snapping up properties in Nanjing , Suzhou, Hanzhou Shanghai etc

Sinari      ( Date: 22-Nov-2018 12:06) Posted:

Yanlord' s share price is now $1.26, even lower than before it posted its stellar Q3 results. This is against fundamental and with too much pessimism priced-in. My reasons why I am going long in Yanlord:

1. ZSJ has been doing business for 25 years in China. He has sterring the compant through ups and downs. He himself has 70% stake in Yanlord. With that much skin in the game, his interests is aligned with minority shareholders like us. I saw upclose how candid, comfortable he was in handling difficult questions. This is a man whom I trust to handle my money.

2. There are risks of property market tighening in China, but Yanlord' s Gross Profit Margin of 46% is more than enough to buffer it. Also, cooling measures are unlikely to be homogenous across all Chinese cities. What more important is that Yanlord is selling in 1 and 2nd-tier cities whose PIE (population, income, and employment) are on the rise.   

3. Yes, Total Debt/ Equity is about 130%. But that is not adnormal for a company who is growing fast.  To expand you need capital. Would you rather yanlord to raise capital by taking money from shareholders through rights issues or private placement which is even more disadvantageous to minority shareholders?   
They are using debt holders money to generate profits for shareholders at an ROE of 25%! Their revenue (LTM) of S$6,732M is enough to cover all their Long Term Debt (LTM) of S$6,762M. What more, EBITDA/ Interest Expense is 28.53 which is much more than enough to buffer against any risks of defaults/insolvency.

4. At PE of 2.54 and PB of 0.5, Yanlord is severly undervalued. With a low float of 28.9%, ZSJ just need S$400M to trigger a mandatory offer by acquiring 90% or S$700M to take it private completely and re-list it again when market senitments are better. (As of 30 Sep, Yanlord has a cash position of S$2,121M. More than 3 times enough to purchase all free-floating shares). 

I am going to increase my stake in Yanlord. Yes, sceptics and short-term investors please dont buy.
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Sinari
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22-Nov-2018 12:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yanlord' s share price is now $1.26, even lower than before it posted its stellar Q3 results. This is against fundamental and with too much pessimism priced-in. My reasons why I am going long in Yanlord:

1. ZSJ has been doing business for 25 years in China. He has sterring the compant through ups and downs. He himself has 70% stake in Yanlord. With that much skin in the game, his interests is aligned with minority shareholders like us. I saw upclose how candid, comfortable he was in handling difficult questions. This is a man whom I trust to handle my money.

2. There are risks of property market tighening in China, but Yanlord' s Gross Profit Margin of 46% is more than enough to buffer it. Also, cooling measures are unlikely to be homogenous across all Chinese cities. What more important is that Yanlord is selling in 1 and 2nd-tier cities whose PIE (population, income, and employment) are on the rise.   

3. Yes, Total Debt/ Equity is about 130%. But that is not adnormal for a company who is growing fast.  To expand you need capital. Would you rather yanlord to raise capital by taking money from shareholders through rights issues or private placement which is even more disadvantageous to minority shareholders?   
They are using debt holders money to generate profits for shareholders at an ROE of 25%! Their revenue (LTM) of S$6,732M is enough to cover all their Long Term Debt (LTM) of S$6,762M. What more, EBITDA/ Interest Expense is 28.53 which is much more than enough to buffer against any risks of defaults/insolvency.

4. At PE of 2.54 and PB of 0.5, Yanlord is severly undervalued. With a low float of 28.9%, ZSJ just need S$400M to trigger a mandatory offer by acquiring 90% or S$700M to take it private completely and re-list it again when market senitments are better. (As of 30 Sep, Yanlord has a cash position of S$2,121M. More than 3 times enough to purchase all free-floating shares). 

I am going to increase my stake in Yanlord. Yes, sceptics and short-term investors please dont buy.
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huathuat88888
Elite
22-Nov-2018 11:33     
 
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Skeptics can dont buy . Saying this just to say it : ). Not to induce anything.

What i like with what i saw in last Qtr results :

Tianjin Sales

No.2 Contributor

Beijing - Tianjin = Suzhou - Shanghai

huathuat88888      ( Date: 22-Nov-2018 11:14) Posted:

ZSJ is a proven bizman with reputable integrity as compared to many others.

Ho Bee Chua Thian Poh is lucky to have a buddy and partner like him, and vice versa.

Holding for 4th Qtr Results .
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huathuat88888
Elite
22-Nov-2018 11:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		ZSJ is a proven bizman with reputable integrity as compared to many others.

Ho Bee Chua Thian Poh is lucky to have a buddy and partner like him, and vice versa.

Holding for 4th Qtr Results .
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Sinari
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22-Nov-2018 10:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		http://beltandroad.zaobao.com/beltandroad/corporate/story20181116-908157

This is Zhong Sheng Jian' s interview by Zaobao on 16 Nov. For those who cannot read Chinese, below is the translated version with help from Google.

Despite entering the Singapore private home market for the first time, it happened to be hit by the government' s latest round of property cooling measures. Yanlord Chairman and CEO Zhong Shengjian still has confidence in the company' s new projects and is more optimistic about Singapore' s prospects.

In April this year, Yanlord Land, together with MCL Land, a subsidiary of Hongkong Land, won the collective sale of the Tulip Garden near the Holland Village for $90.69 million. The second highest sale price.

When he was interviewed by Lianhe Zaobao on 15 November, he said that the group decided to invest in the Singapore property market based on a long-term vision and risk-dividing corporate strategy.

Zhong Shengjian said that the Tulip Garden area is a rare freehold land, and Yanlord is confident to do it well. " Especially this is the Group' s first private residential project in Singapore. It is better to do it well and give consumers a deep impression."

According to the transaction price, the land price of the lot is equivalent to a floor area ratio of $1,790 PSF. Property analysts expect that after the redevelopment of Tulip Garden, the price should be at least $2,420 to 2,500 PSF, so that developers can recover the cost. However, the government has introduced a new round of cooling measures, followed by a revised regulation to increase the average size of non-landed private homes. Analysts generally believe that this may affect the market demand for new private homes.

Although the high cost price and encountering property cooling measures, Zhong Shengjian is not worried about this. He said that every product has its own customer segment. Some projects in Singapore have a price of more than $3,000 PSF, but they have achieved good sales performance.

Asked about the pricing of the new project, he responded that the group has not yet decided when to launch the project, so it is too early to talk about pricing. However, future pricing will be adjusted according to the actual situation of the market.

He stressed that the group &ldquo has confidence in the project and even more confidence of Singapore' s future&rdquo and will continue to increase his investments in Singapore, including commercial and residential projects.

Development focus is still in China

While looking at the Singapore market, Yanlord&rsquo s development focus remains in China. The Group' s business in China has a high Gross Profit Margin, which was 46% last year and this year.

The company is vulnerable to Chinese government imposing restrictions on the property market, but Zhong Shengjian said that based on the foundation laid over 20 years, the Group still enjoys much competitive advantage because of the brand value their products created, and support by its customer base.

Yanlord, which has been established for 25 years, has also expanded from residential development to hotel and commercial projects in China in recent years to collect rental income. Zhong Shengjian said that the Group plans to increase the revenue contribution of the rental  income business from the current 10% to 1/3 in the future, and increase the Group' s recurring income as the main revenue pillar.

Taking the initiative to talk about Yanlord' s business philosophy, he expressed respect for architecture, because architecture signifies " longevity" and it is the future generation' s access to the " ancestral soul." Since Yanlord is listed in Singapore, he has proposed the concept of &ldquo being kind to the land&rdquo from the perspective of scarcity of land in Singapore.


Yanlord&rsquo s Net Profit for the 3rd quarter ended September increased by 61% to RMB1,021.4 million (S$210.03 million), and revenues from 52% to RMB5.711 billion. Net Profit for the first 9 months rose 62% to RMB3.28 billion, and revenue rose 57% to RMB2,526.26 million.
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lifeisgood
Supreme
20-Nov-2018 17:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The ideal scenario is steady, gradual property price appreciation over a period of time. Leave for next gen type of investment.

 

john_ric      ( Date: 20-Nov-2018 12:41) Posted:

the thing is finding a way to lower the property price is not simple. in fact very complicated.

in singapore, it is the same.
if gov lower  hdb price to half (example), hdb flats become very affordable. but 80% sporeans will be boiling coz they are the stack holders and value is halfed: millionaires become half-millionaires.
only those youngsters will be benefited but smaller percentage compared with 80% existing.

so the gov' s support will be be deadly damaged. which gov like that to happen?
 

lifeisgood      ( Date: 20-Nov-2018 11:38) Posted:

I just find it weird. China wants to quickly boost domestic demand, and reduce dependence on exports.

Property purchase is usually the single biggest domestic consumption per household. China government simply
has to find a way to make it more affordable, sustainable. It is a matter of helping the lower echelon in the society
to purchase properties that the China govt should be focussing on. Very much like Singapore HDB initially. 

Preventing money from going into property is  not the right way. 
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shareprofessor
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20-Nov-2018 17:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Not crap. Only u dont like. What i said is true. There is a risk involved to buy best world.

alexchew      ( Date: 20-Nov-2018 17:01) Posted:

just someone who don' t like the way u post.. if you so zhun, you wont be here talking crap...

shareprofessor      ( Date: 20-Nov-2018 16:56) Posted:

Who are u ? How u know ?
If he purchased best world on 17 nov on the day he mentioned, the price was 2.10. Now the price is lower than that.


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alexchew
Master
20-Nov-2018 17:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		just someone who don' t like the way u post.. if you so zhun, you wont be here talking crap...

shareprofessor      ( Date: 20-Nov-2018 16:56) Posted:

Who are u ? How u know ?
If he purchased best world on 17 nov on the day he mentioned, the price was 2.10. Now the price is lower than that.


alexchew      ( Date: 20-Nov-2018 16:49) Posted:

not valid, his entry point on that day and the day he sold today (if), he still fare better
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shareprofessor
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20-Nov-2018 16:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Who are u ? How u know ?
If he purchased best world on 17 nov on the day he mentioned, the price was 2.10. Now the price is lower than that.


alexchew      ( Date: 20-Nov-2018 16:49) Posted:

not valid, his entry point on that day and the day he sold today (if), he still fare better.

shareprofessor      ( Date: 20-Nov-2018 16:47) Posted:

I said very chun. Best world is bleeding..
Fast switch to buy Yanlord or buy Yoma strategic. At least both are undervalued and profitable stock.
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alexchew
Master
20-Nov-2018 16:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		not valid, his entry point on that day and the day he sold today (if), he still fare better.

shareprofessor      ( Date: 20-Nov-2018 16:47) Posted:

I said very chun. Best world is bleeding..
Fast switch to buy Yanlord or buy Yoma strategic. At least both are undervalued and profitable stock.

shareprofessor      ( Date: 19-Nov-2018 09:40) Posted:

Good to hear that you bought another profitable company Best World. Beware that the price for Best world might drop before 29 Nov, it has been rising alot already, there is a risk involved.
Once  clear the short term seller, Yanlord will definitely move higher price, it is a profitable company. There is no reason it will not move higher. Target price 1.70 and above.  
You may consider to buy another company called Yoma Strategic, target price 0.65 and above. 

 
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