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Kyoto2008 Elite	16-Feb-2015 22:15        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	All of us must be very clear. In Aug 2014, Ah Chai opened talks with OCBC. Right now, there is no equivalent scenario. All we have are guesses.      What I just posted is what I saw on the MD, large parcels being bought up indicating there could be either 1) speculation 2)a serious bidder either Ah Chai absorbing as much as possible or another party buying up in anticipation of an offer to OCBC. What we have is 100% guesswork.          Please be very clear of the risks. Having said that, someone pointed out the floor value for UE, glad that he did so, UE is not a bankrupt or a loss making company, there is a price for the stock.    At 2.63, I think it is a hell of a bargain, but stocks being what they are, sentiment really determines the price for the short term.        The problem with UE is that noone really knows (maybe except Ah Chai) exactly how much the assets are worth, so we are all working in the dark when we try to do a NAV thingy as the assets in China are not properly accounted for.      Look at the properties held by UE, are they like useless warehouses nobody would rent?      They are commercial properties, some freehold properties, worth redeveloping (look at the old posts in this thread, the info is available and one can crosscheck easily by checking out the UE website and simpy applying some commonsense).  Is UE really a suay co?   Down and trodden on?     Far from it.   If there is a floor, what is the floor price?   Definitely above 2.63 I think.     In the short term, there' s gonna be huge volatility.  Be mindful that even if you buy at 2.63 there' s no 100% guarantee you will make money in a week or a month, no guarantee at all.     Price goes up and it goes down, a lot of speculators, but the long term investor probably will make, it' s my view.       Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 21:51) Posted: Quite a lot of large parcels transacted, many bought up.    Signs of either speculation or a serious bidder accumulating.  I' m still holding on to the view that Ah Chai will come back for Part 2. Shorting is totally out of the question.  Shorting is actually risky, there is infinite losses.  When you long, the most you lose up to the value of the stock, when you short, you can lose many many times more if the price shoots up.  Bear in mind those who short, losses can be extremely painful if Part 2 suddenly breaks out.    Give you an e.g. you long UE at 2.70, if it bellies up, go bankrupt, your max loss is 2.70.      If you short UE at 2.70 and supposing price doubles, you lose 2.70.  And if price triples you lose 5.40, etc.  When you long, there is a cap to your max risk.  When you short, there is no cap.    UE has a particularly strong attraction as a takeover candidate, otherwise Mr Chai wouldn' t even bother to waste 6 mths of his precious time to do due diligence. Having said that, right now, the trading looks identical to the time in Aug 2014 when the news first broke out that Ah Chai wants to buy UE.    Price moves up, it moves down.          Some guy bought at 2.63, it is a damn good price, bottom.  But as at today.  I' ve been through all this before, and history is repeating itself over again.  It' s like I entered a time tunnel and has gone back to Aug 2014.        The dynamics are different, then and now, I recognise this, therefore the strategy is going to be different. Price need to settle at an equilibrium.      What happens tomorrow, noone knows.        Shorting is risky, based on what can be seen on the MD, and if this pattern continues to repeat, long with all your money!
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IBanalystslave Member	16-Feb-2015 22:08        IBanalystslave About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yeah. its almost impossible to time the market. now its 2.68, if it goes to 2.58 do you buy or do you hope it goes lower? if its goes to 2.78 do you buy or hope it falls back? there is no end to it. one can only look at the risk profile of the transaction and his/her own individual risk profile and see if its a match. if there' s no match then don' t buy, if there' s a match then go ahead. usually. If we see big blocks of buy orders done like today, likely one of the bidders is accumulating. Didn' t seem like charoen had a stake to begin with. I would go with ST as the more likely bidder as CGK is savy and willing to pay for something she is familiar with. She was in the same tussle for Straits Trading with OCBC and the Tan family has a history with the Lee family from a long time ago. On the other end, Charoen and Riady have their existing REITs they can use to absorb the properties in UE. Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 21:51) Posted: Quite a lot of large parcels transacted, many bought up.    Signs of either speculation or a serious bidder accumulating.  I' m still holding on to the view that Ah Chai will come back for Part 2. Shorting is totally out of the question.  Shorting is actually risky, there is infinite losses.  When you long, the most you lose up to the value of the stock, when you short, you can lose many many times more if the price shoots up.  Bear in mind those who short, losses can be extremely painful if Part 2 suddenly breaks out.    Give you an e.g. you long UE at 2.70, if it bellies up, go bankrupt, your max loss is 2.70.      If you short UE at 2.70 and supposing price doubles, you lose 2.70.  And if price triples you lose 5.40, etc.  When you long, there is a cap to your max risk.  When you short, there is no cap.    UE has a particularly strong attraction as a takeover candidate, otherwise Mr Chai wouldn' t even bother to waste 6 mths of his precious time to do due diligence. Having said that, right now, the trading looks identical to the time in Aug 2014 when the news first broke out that Ah Chai wants to buy UE.    Price moves up, it moves down.          Some guy bought at 2.63, it is a damn good price, bottom.  But as at today.  I' ve been through all this before, and history is repeating itself over again.  It' s like I entered a time tunnel and has gone back to Aug 2014.        The dynamics are different, then and now, I recognise this, therefore the strategy is going to be different. Price need to settle at an equilibrium.      What happens tomorrow, noone knows.        Shorting is risky, based on what can be seen on the MD, and if this pattern continues to repeat, long with all your money!
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Kyoto2008 Elite	16-Feb-2015 21:51        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Quite a lot of large parcels transacted, many bought up.    Signs of either speculation or a serious bidder accumulating.  I' m still holding on to the view that Ah Chai will come back for Part 2. Shorting is totally out of the question.  Shorting is actually risky, there is infinite losses.  When you long, the most you lose up to the value of the stock, when you short, you can lose many many times more if the price shoots up.  Bear in mind those who short, losses can be extremely painful if Part 2 suddenly breaks out.    Give you an e.g. you long UE at 2.70, if it bellies up, go bankrupt, your max loss is 2.70.      If you short UE at 2.70 and supposing price doubles, you lose 2.70.  And if price triples you lose 5.40, etc.  When you long, there is a cap to your max risk.  When you short, there is no cap.    UE has a particularly strong attraction as a takeover candidate, otherwise Mr Chai wouldn' t even bother to waste 6 mths of his precious time to do due diligence. Having said that, right now, the trading looks identical to the time in Aug 2014 when the news first broke out that Ah Chai wants to buy UE.    Price moves up, it moves down.          Some guy bought at 2.63, it is a damn good price, bottom.  But as at today.  I' ve been through all this before, and history is repeating itself over again.  It' s like I entered a time tunnel and has gone back to Aug 2014.        The dynamics are different, then and now, I recognise this, therefore the strategy is going to be different. Price need to settle at an equilibrium.      What happens tomorrow, noone knows.        Shorting is risky, based on what can be seen on the MD, and if this pattern continues to repeat, long with all your money!
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IBanalystslave Member	16-Feb-2015 21:16        IBanalystslave About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	even now with volatility, the short sell volume is very small as shown. should UE halt to announce the new bidder/s, they will be caught with their pants down. true, new parties would need some time to conduct due diligence unless there is some way the company can provide the recent due diligence which has been done to them or like you said, its CGK. anyway it has long been speculated that OUE and ST are the ones interested. but it was only officially reported that OUE had approached them. I' m positively optimistic for an announcement before the annual report is out, if not, the annual report will definitely provide reasons for a price move upwards (revised NAV, increased profitability from last year). All the asset disposals and profits have to be reflected in the FY 14 report. nea03177      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 21:09) Posted: In the past, there was no short sell of UE. Nobody dares to sell short. Now with the votality, then they dare. Of course, not recommended for contra or short term trade. Also was told if new parties interested they will also need at least one month to do due diligence unless it's Straits Tradings Chew Gek Khim who knows UE in and out. IBanalystslave      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 21:02) Posted: don' t doubt thats possible. just providing the fundamental and factual analysis for people who have holding power. non of this is for trading ideas or contra positions.
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nea03177 Senior	16-Feb-2015 21:09        nea03177 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In the past, there was no short sell of UE. Nobody dares to sell short. Now with the votality, then they dare. Of course, not recommended for contra or short term trade. Also was told if new parties interested they will also need at least one month to do due diligence unless it's Straits Tradings Chew Gek Khim who knows UE in and out. IBanalystslave      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 21:02) Posted: don' t doubt thats possible. just providing the fundamental and factual analysis for people who have holding power. non of this is for trading ideas or contra positions. nea03177      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 20:42) Posted: It's the shareholders who bought the last few days who throw the shares. Under Share Borrowing and Lending, scripts are also not available according to various brokerages. Margin call the next few days will depress the price.
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IBanalystslave Member	16-Feb-2015 21:02        IBanalystslave About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	don' t doubt thats possible. just providing the fundamental and factual analysis for people who have holding power. non of this is for trading ideas or contra positions. nea03177      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 20:42) Posted: It's the shareholders who bought the last few days who throw the shares. Under Share Borrowing and Lending, scripts are also not available according to various brokerages. Margin call the next few days will depress the price. IBanalystslave      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 20:35) Posted: *0.3% not 3%, typo
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nea03177 Senior	16-Feb-2015 20:42        nea03177 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It's the shareholders who bought the last few days who throw the shares. Under Share Borrowing and Lending, scripts are also not available according to various brokerages. Margin call the next few days will depress the price. IBanalystslave      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 20:35) Posted: *0.3% not 3%, typo IBanalystslave      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 20:23) Posted: today' s marked short sell volume of 948 lots against total transacted volume of 26,851 is approximately 3+%. This is consistent from my review of the last two times where UE dropped from 3.20+ to 2.97 where short sell volume averaged 30 over total of 8000 which is also about 3+%. This was preceeded by a sharp rebound. No one really shorts this stock. I anticipate the new bidders to announce their intention or offer very soon, possibly before the annual report is due end of FEB, as the revised NAV and profit increase by at least 30% will see the price rise significantly, thereby reducing the premium on any offer made at this point. The keppel bid was also made before Keppel Land' s annual report and dividend proposal was announced.
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IBanalystslave Member	16-Feb-2015 20:35        IBanalystslave About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	*0.3% not 3%, typo IBanalystslave      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 20:23) Posted: today' s marked short sell volume of 948 lots against total transacted volume of 26,851 is approximately 3+%. This is consistent from my review of the last two times where UE dropped from 3.20+ to 2.97 where short sell volume averaged 30 over total of 8000 which is also about 3+%. This was preceeded by a sharp rebound. No one really shorts this stock. I anticipate the new bidders to announce their intention or offer very soon, possibly before the annual report is due end of FEB, as the revised NAV and profit increase by at least 30% will see the price rise significantly, thereby reducing the premium on any offer made at this point. The keppel bid was also made before Keppel Land' s annual report and dividend proposal was announced. richinsperm      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 16:49) Posted: better sell fast or Short big big before too late!
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IBanalystslave Member	16-Feb-2015 20:23        IBanalystslave About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	today' s marked short sell volume of 948 lots against total transacted volume of 26,851 is approximately 3+%. This is consistent from my review of the last two times where UE dropped from 3.20+ to 2.97 where short sell volume averaged 30 over total of 8000 which is also about 3+%. This was preceeded by a sharp rebound. No one really shorts this stock. I anticipate the new bidders to announce their intention or offer very soon, possibly before the annual report is due end of FEB, as the revised NAV and profit increase by at least 30% will see the price rise significantly, thereby reducing the premium on any offer made at this point. The keppel bid was also made before Keppel Land' s annual report and dividend proposal was announced. richinsperm      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 16:49) Posted: better sell fast or Short big big before too late!
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Breeze Member	16-Feb-2015 18:56        Breeze About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Huh risk reward attractive meh.? Let it cool down ist. Dun average on its way down. Mark_tan      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 15:39) Posted: Risk reward at this level is attractive. Hypothetically, if the takeover price is $3.5(conservatively speaking), you are looking at a 30% upside from here. If it doesn' t, it goes back down to $2.45 (-30% from $3.5 RNAV, which is a worse case scenario) and that equates to a 10% loss. kirana      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 15:29) Posted: Everybody please use your hong bao cash and work bonuses to support UE.
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Gingin Member	16-Feb-2015 17:01        Gingin About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I' m gonna go eat duck rice first Will come back when people want to eat boneless chicken rice stay safe everyone
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richinsperm Member	16-Feb-2015 16:51        richinsperm About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	might become micro pennies soon... !!!!
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richinsperm Member	16-Feb-2015 16:49        richinsperm About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	better sell fast or Short big big before too late!
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Bigmama Elite	16-Feb-2015 16:19        Bigmama About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Some already did last week at 3.2 and all the hong bao and bonus all gone. Maybe you want to ask them to beg from their daughter for their piggy bank. ..... "Just one more time .... Trust daddy....just one more time...please sweetie...this time is different." kirana      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 15:29) Posted: Everybody please use your hong bao cash and work bonuses to support UE.
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IBanalystslave Member	16-Feb-2015 15:54        IBanalystslave About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	For a property company, the use of precedent comparables is more suitable because they are unlike a manufacturing company which generates consistent earnings. &ldquo Analysts say that, if redevelopment is indeed on the cards, minority shareholders should hang on to their stock instead, especially since the offer isn&rsquo t particularly attractive. As Lim & Tan notes, $3.50 per share values the stock at just 1.13 times its [book value per share] of $3.13, &ldquo which pales in comparison to UOL&rsquo s 1.65 times price-to-book offer for Pan Pacific Hotels in Oct 2013.&rdquo Shares in HPL have shot up in value in the last couple of days, surpassing the $3.50 point and closed at a high of $3.75 on Apr 17.&rdquo [The Edge]   Precedent Comparables: Kep Corp & Kep Land: 0.92 P/BV UOL & Pan Pacific: 1.65 P/BV HPL: 1.13 P/BV (current price at $4.05 is higher than offer at $3.50) UE and (Potential Bidder): Using last announced NAV at $2.89 At 0.92 P/BV: $2.65 At 1.13 P/BV: $3.26 At 1.65 P/BV: $4.76 If NAV is revised to at least $3: At 0.92 P/BV: $2.76 At 1.13 P/BV: $3.39 At 1.65 P/BV: $4.95 While I have included the Keppel transaction, it has to be noted that there wouldn&rsquo t be a premium paid for an internal takeover in Keppel&rsquo s case while for pan pacific, it demanded a premium. As such I would use the average of both the HPL and Pan Pac offers as a guide (< 1.65+1.13> /2=1.39) At 1.39x $2.89: $4 At 1.39x $3: 4.17 Using the comparable method, a $4 to $4.17 range would be a good offer. Even if the Kep transaction is included, the average P/BV would be (< 0.92+1.13+1.65> /2=1.23) At 1.23x $2.89: $3.55 At 1.23x $3: $3.69 If my analysis turns out true, I will set up a new site to follow market deals if I have enough followers! Cheers!
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Mark_tan Member	16-Feb-2015 15:39        Mark_tan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Risk reward at this level is attractive. Hypothetically, if the takeover price is $3.5(conservatively speaking), you are looking at a 30% upside from here. If it doesn' t, it goes back down to $2.45 (-30% from $3.5 RNAV, which is a worse case scenario) and that equates to a 10% loss. kirana      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 15:29) Posted: Everybody please use your hong bao cash and work bonuses to support UE.
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kirana Senior	16-Feb-2015 15:29        kirana About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Everybody please use your hong bao cash and work bonuses to support UE.
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Breeze Member	16-Feb-2015 15:25        Breeze About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ya sorry i did not short or long. i juz provide neutral.view.on this. somehow ppl like.to.hear positive news. When ppl shout 350-400. The forum ppl here worship like a king. but when i say 244-266, ppl curse and swear. . hem2998      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 12:34) Posted: thats not a cool thing to say when  its not ur money. plenty of buyers still...as usual, contra players being squeezed out. if can ride it out, this deal will still take place --its just a question of when. From the looks of it, OCBC will not sell it cheaply, that is good and bad.   Breeze      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 12:12) Posted: Be decisive. Stop deceiving urself cut loss!!!
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nea03177 Senior	16-Feb-2015 15:18        nea03177 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If can close above 2.70, will be good.
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IBanalystslave Member	16-Feb-2015 15:03        IBanalystslave About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	And in investment banking, one key method for valuation is comparable precedent transactions, meaning previous transactions which have been carried out and using those as a guide. An average of those figures would probably give a good guide on potential offers.  IBanalystslave      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 14:59) Posted: Ong beng seng' s offer for HPL was at approximately 1.13 times book value and for uob' s offer for pan pac it was at approximately 1.65 times book value. All these info are widely available, from a value perspective, I recommend accumulating if you can hold, not for trading. Cheers
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