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CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT)
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GreenTrap
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16-Nov-2020 16:06
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1.29-1.31 sui sui | ||||
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GreenTrap
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12-Nov-2020 09:42
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Slow and steady counter isn' t it | ||||
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GreenTrap
Veteran |
11-Nov-2020 15:21
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1.28 gogo onwards 1.3 | ||||
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pasttime
Supreme |
10-Nov-2020 17:34
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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china has a new rule to anti platform monopoly. wonder how will that affect brick and mortar + platform model |
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bystander1965
Supreme |
10-Nov-2020 17:02
Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD" |
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I don't expect much movement for this today and it really has not moved much. If the placement is coming then for sure it will be pressed down so that the offer price is low. | ||||
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GreenTrap
Veteran |
10-Nov-2020 09:57
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Good morning, green green day | ||||
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tangoanna
Master |
09-Nov-2020 16:12
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Preferential offering willl definitely be way higher than the illustrated $1.13. | ||||
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GreenTrap
Veteran |
09-Nov-2020 16:01
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Maintaining power. | ||||
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GreenTrap
Veteran |
09-Nov-2020 09:03
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Good morning Crct  | ||||
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ysh2006
Supreme |
09-Nov-2020 07:14
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Based on your analysing can share what is the right price to get have it...,
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
09-Nov-2020 05:56
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I trust the manager to make an appropriate decision on the debt/equity mix. That would be the crucial for the acquisition. Thanks for you posts guys, they help me understand CRCT better. | ||||
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tangoanna
Master |
09-Nov-2020 00:26
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I agree with your analysis, though the P/B would have been different during their previous acquisitions. But  You know what? Actually, does it matter whether NAV drops or not for existing shareholders?  I like also that you totally ignored that the DPU accretion is 5.1%. This could potentially be higher if there are fewer issued equity than illustrated. The announcement clearly that $1.13 is only an " illustrative average issue price" based on last month' s traded price which is obviously underprice. " The final decision regarding the proportion of the debt and equity to be employed to fund the Acquisition will be made by the Manager at the appropriate time with an objective to achieve accretion, taking into account the prevailing market conditions, interest rate environment, while maintaining an optimum level of aggregate leverage." To conclude, your analysis of NAV only tells 1 side of the story and based on the growth trajectory of CRCT and the potentially higher DPU accretion, CRCT' s future is bright. I am currently on the sidelines and will not hesitate to triple my holdings at the right price.  
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IceMountain
Member |
08-Nov-2020 23:03
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You can don trust my explanation below but if you refer to their own accouncement and their Pro Forma calculation on Page 37, u will see that all things equal, the effect of the combine equity, debt funding result in a drop of NAV from 1.51 to 1.44. If CRCT share price is trading at premium to book value like the 3 other reits you mention, the NAV will be higher after new share issue without having to do anything. That is a smart choice to raise equity.    Link to their announcement: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/20201106_Acquisition_Annoucement.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=638172 |
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IceMountain
Member |
08-Nov-2020 22:54
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It happens that the 3 company you name, are trading at premium P/B of Ascendas reit (P/B around 1.4), keppel dc (P/B around 2.5), mapletree industrial trust(P/B around 2)now and also a a permium to book value when they raise the equity.  When a reits is trading a a Permium to their book, raising equity is the best option. But when a reits is trading a a discount, raising equity is not good. Simple example for you:  Say your Iphone has market resale value of of $1000 now.  You go carosell kana low ball at 0.7 P/B value of your phone at $ 700 ( same as now CRCT trading at around 0.7P/B now) , you sell your iphone to raise the $700 ( Issuing of new share in exchange for money).  Now with the $700 you cannot even buy another similiar iphone back.  Bo Hua. The other 3 Reits you mentioned trade at permium to their P/B. Its like selling your iphone at $2000. with the $2000, you can buy back 2 of your iphone. For whatever reason CRCT is trading at discount or why the other 3 reits is trading at premium is irrelevant. As long the Reits raise equity when they are trading at below P/B ratio, current shareholder stand to lose.  But of cus there will be the argument that when it recovers it will recovers strong etc.... More diversification, more stable DPU... Those are standard template all the reits keep bringing up.
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tangoanna
Master |
08-Nov-2020 13:17
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Is it something new that REITs raise cash through equity? Ascendas reit, keppel dc, mapletree industrial trust never done it before??
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IceMountain
Member |
08-Nov-2020 12:23
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I don think they will have to cut their dividend from buying the malls. Base on current calculation it is 3.9% DPU Accretion. But i think it is quite a bad deal for current shareholder. The current P/B ratio is already so low at around 0.75 and they still intend to raise 300+m Equity at a discount.  So far all new placement are at a discount or around 5% to the average price. If it turns out that it will be a rights issue instead, even worse, the discount could be more. They mentioned the equity placement is either to 1) institutional and other investor or 2) Preferential offering of new units to existing unitholders ( Which basically is just rights issue). I will rather it be to insitutional investor as the impact to share price wont be as bad as a rights issue. So the winner will eventually be the Instiutional investor who manage to buy it at a offering discount on top of a discount on P/B ratio. For the current shareholder, more possiblity to lose than win at the near term. 1) preferential offering ( So So impact to existing share holder) 2) Rights issue ( Jialat liao) 3) Buying not more malls but more business parks ( If WFH trend continuse will have downward pressure to rental in business park) 4) New Covid surge and lockdown happening in many countries if it happens in china ( risk of rental rebate back to shareholder) Only possible win for existing shareholders in the short term? 1) Maybe ask the DBS analyst to come write report to hype up and pump up the share price and hope it goes higher and higher. But then his report only manage to pump up 2 weeks from 1.16 to 1.31 before it drop back around 1.16.  
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
08-Nov-2020 11:38
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Sorry, Halleluyah, I accidently pressed the button to follow you. Now I have unfollowed you. Sorry again!
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
08-Nov-2020 11:36
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That is only one side of the story. Higher interest rates reflect a stronger economy and higher inflation, not necessarily worse for Reits.
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halleluyah
Supreme |
08-Nov-2020 11:34
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Biden win might not be so gd on reits as he will hike int/tzx down the rd...whereas republican like to press down tax/int... | ||||
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
08-Nov-2020 11:18
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If these fail and the economy turns bad, then, Rights issue!!!!
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