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RedEye1811 Master	22-May-2017 12:31        RedEye1811 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, this one will be interesting. I do not think they would wish to do a conversion in one go, but could be mistaken. Perhaps a partial conversion now, and then if move forward on RI they do the rest. But if they do the conversion then RI hope they do a consolidation merely as cannot count that high.... sheerluck      ( Date: 22-May-2017 12:21) Posted: Quick calc on Rawabi debt-to-equity swap.   Owing to Rawabis = US$10mi2mil.   Assuming 2cts, and x-rate of 1.4 that' s about 7billion new shares.   Vallianz has 4.3billion ordinary shares. Don' t think it can be a total swap unless Rawabi is willing to take a higher conversion price or partial swap.   But Vallianz placed all that US$1002 into the equity account...hmm.......how will this turn out?   RedEye1811      ( Date: 22-May-2017 12:13) Posted: I think if read Point 10 you get a fairly clear idea on the RI, Swiber willingness to participate and so forth. The paragraph - whilst not running off to the races - is quite clear. Again, on the Swiber receivables issue read the discussion in Point 10 as suppose that gives some clue to what considering in part. On the guaranteed loans there were 3 banks. 2 had agreed, with discussions with other remaining as per Q4/2016. Perhaps they did not announce anything as it resolved. but accept that still a mystery. But as the 3rd bank not issuing a default by now doubt they really looking to make a grab so think risk not as great as may think. As for 2 lawsuits those probably take years to unravel. Indonesian and Indian courts can take years. So if going to hold the lawsuits as linchpin on this counter then likely going to be waiting long time. If litigation what going to sink this entity then better write of POSH as well as they facing big litigation (see announcement May 3rd) also If read the statements of sector they do focus on challenges, lower utilization and profits but they also beginning to give focus to see greater interest in contracts in coming HY etc. So it not great but not all doom and gloom as may fear.
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sheerluck Supreme	22-May-2017 12:27        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	For your point 7, Vallianzis still recognising revenue from Swiber if you looked at 13) IPT transaction.   About US$9mil for this quarter.   Funny given that Swiber already kaput.   I dont think this US$9mil can becollected.   Strange that Vallianz is still doing work for them.     Seems like Swiber foul smell still linger. RedEye1811      ( Date: 22-May-2017 11:57) Posted: LOL...yeah, I should not have used the word " think" ...we " were" well off the mark...I can see some people see the absolute value of the net loss as it plastered across the media and they freaking...but whilst it is " huge" I do feel credit needs to be given for biting the bullet. Let us be honest, Swiber is dead so best they be frank and anything tied to Swiber is worthless so best eliminate it. And a number of the assets sold to them by Swiber (like the shipyard in Tuas/Jurong) are worthless so best be realistic and get off the books. And so other investments they made (the personnel management side) is now dead in water. They stated they streamlining and focusing on core, and credit should be given that in announcing that focus they actually took step to get dead non-core items off the books even if may not have liked it. As for PPE, I not certain how much of the impairment related to vessels with the long-term contracts relative to others such as what they got from the Holmen consolidation. I would imagine the vessels tied to long-term contracts have not been impaired as much as vessels not. I think - though do not quote me - about 70% of their fleet tied to long-term contracts. So I think bulk of PPE impairment may be to the vessels not tied to the long-term contracts. Agree with comment on backing the loss into the retained earnings. Was thinking they would have put it on a separate line. But do not think that necessarily a bad/good thing. Positives: (1) Relative to competitors they at least maintained an operating profit. (2) Given they have taken a big write-down this time including on PPE then going forward the depreciation expense is likely to be lower so net earnings could look better moving forward. (3) The big positive for me was the vast improvement in cash and cash equivalent. At end Q4/2016 it was a bout US$14 mill. Now it US$45 million. They did not get the boost from shareholder advances but rather from receivables etc. Now their cash balance looks much healthier and on par with some other competitors (who whilst have net losses and OPEX losses did have better cash balances). (4) The current ratio is now positive (please do not correct me but when I say positive I just saying current assets higher than current liabilities), and as got break for two years on paying principle for US$168 million of long-term debt then current ratio go good chance of remaining above 1. (5) Their order book is still about US$1 billion so they in a better position than competitors on SGX who really have a stumble on that. (6) In getting rid of much of the dead assets now reduced chance in future so can have some confidence earnings are going to be based on operations etc. (7) From way read it I do not think their revenue is getting anything from Swiber. Could be mistaken on that. But perhaps now got a clearer picture on how they running without Swiber influence. If can make a profit then better than lots of others. (8) As there is signs people are beginning to win contracts (seen a few announcements on Splash of late) then if a recovery is gradually getting roots (though it be slow not fast) then perhaps having bitten the bullet they now in a far better position to move forward with improvements in earnings. (9) And seems like RHC will convert advance to equity - perhaps that good or bad but least can give some certainty moving forward. Happy to be told if views differ. Just how seeing it but happy hear other views. Now for the follow up announcement. sheerluck      ( Date: 22-May-2017 11:22) Posted: No need to think. We are. They really bite the bullet hard.   Might no be a bad thing but they placed everything under owner/retaind earning and it dropped from a positive US$34mil to a big negative US$148mil.   I thought they could be parked in a separate line.   But if you looked at the cashflow from operation, it was actually pretty decent and was so for the last quarter.  I also thought their vessels are backed by long-term contract and will not need to impair PPE by too much.   In the end they still impair about 25%-30% which is quite inline compared to other veseel owners who more vesseel on spot rate.   Anyway, it means either they are prudent or their contracts might be subjected to further downside.   I sort of recall their client did renegotiate a lower charter rate some time back. From 8q, Rawabi is going to do a debt-to-equity swap? (q) Shareholder&rsquo s advance The amount mainly relates to the deemed investment by Rawabi Holding Company Limited (&ldquo RHC&rdquo ) into the Company following an intended undertaking by RHC to convert its shareholder&rsquo s advances to the Company into equity from its subscription to the Proposed Rights cum Warrants Issue and further new equity in the foreseeable future subject to fulfilment of certain conditions. Well I don' t think the share price will move a lot. Let see what news Vallianz is putting out
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sheerluck Supreme	22-May-2017 12:21        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Quick calc on Rawabi debt-to-equity swap.   Owing to Rawabis = US$10mi2mil.   Assuming 2cts, and x-rate of 1.4 that' s about 7billion new shares.   Vallianz has 4.3billion ordinary shares. Don' t think it can be a total swap unless Rawabi is willing to take a higher conversion price or partial swap.   But Vallianz placed all that US$1002 into the equity account...hmm.......how will this turn out?   RedEye1811      ( Date: 22-May-2017 12:13) Posted: I think if read Point 10 you get a fairly clear idea on the RI, Swiber willingness to participate and so forth. The paragraph - whilst not running off to the races - is quite clear. Again, on the Swiber receivables issue read the discussion in Point 10 as suppose that gives some clue to what considering in part. On the guaranteed loans there were 3 banks. 2 had agreed, with discussions with other remaining as per Q4/2016. Perhaps they did not announce anything as it resolved. but accept that still a mystery. But as the 3rd bank not issuing a default by now doubt they really looking to make a grab so think risk not as great as may think. As for 2 lawsuits those probably take years to unravel. Indonesian and Indian courts can take years. So if going to hold the lawsuits as linchpin on this counter then likely going to be waiting long time. If litigation what going to sink this entity then better write of POSH as well as they facing big litigation (see announcement May 3rd) also If read the statements of sector they do focus on challenges, lower utilization and profits but they also beginning to give focus to see greater interest in contracts in coming HY etc. So it not great but not all doom and gloom as may fear.  ticktock      ( Date: 22-May-2017 11:35) Posted: Lot of issues still hanging and no answers, no clarity on swiber receivable payable conflict, no clarity on the outcome of talks with the 2nd bank on debt gaurantee linked to swiber, no updates on being named in the 2 lawsuits along with swiber, no updates whether going for rights or not, no updates on swibers willingness to participate in rights issue. These along with sector facing challenges reduced spendings, lower profits and utilization of vessels...i see further downside in the near future.
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RedEye1811 Master	22-May-2017 12:13        RedEye1811 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think if read Point 10 you get a fairly clear idea on the RI, Swiber willingness to participate and so forth. The paragraph - whilst not running off to the races - is quite clear. Again, on the Swiber receivables issue read the discussion in Point 10 as suppose that gives some clue to what considering in part. On the guaranteed loans there were 3 banks. 2 had agreed, with discussions with other remaining as per Q4/2016. Perhaps they did not announce anything as it resolved. but accept that still a mystery. But as the 3rd bank not issuing a default by now doubt they really looking to make a grab so think risk not as great as may think. As for 2 lawsuits those probably take years to unravel. Indonesian and Indian courts can take years. So if going to hold the lawsuits as linchpin on this counter then likely going to be waiting long time. If litigation what going to sink this entity then better write of POSH as well as they facing big litigation (see announcement May 3rd) also If read the statements of sector they do focus on challenges, lower utilization and profits but they also beginning to give focus to see greater interest in contracts in coming HY etc. So it not great but not all doom and gloom as may fear.  ticktock      ( Date: 22-May-2017 11:35) Posted: Lot of issues still hanging and no answers, no clarity on swiber receivable payable conflict, no clarity on the outcome of talks with the 2nd bank on debt gaurantee linked to swiber, no updates on being named in the 2 lawsuits along with swiber, no updates whether going for rights or not, no updates on swibers willingness to participate in rights issue. These along with sector facing challenges reduced spendings, lower profits and utilization of vessels...i see further downside in the near future.
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RedEye1811 Master	22-May-2017 11:57        RedEye1811 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	LOL...yeah, I should not have used the word " think" ...we " were" well off the mark...I can see some people see the absolute value of the net loss as it plastered across the media and they freaking...but whilst it is " huge" I do feel credit needs to be given for biting the bullet. Let us be honest, Swiber is dead so best they be frank and anything tied to Swiber is worthless so best eliminate it. And a number of the assets sold to them by Swiber (like the shipyard in Tuas/Jurong) are worthless so best be realistic and get off the books. And so other investments they made (the personnel management side) is now dead in water. They stated they streamlining and focusing on core, and credit should be given that in announcing that focus they actually took step to get dead non-core items off the books even if may not have liked it. As for PPE, I not certain how much of the impairment related to vessels with the long-term contracts relative to others such as what they got from the Holmen consolidation. I would imagine the vessels tied to long-term contracts have not been impaired as much as vessels not. I think - though do not quote me - about 70% of their fleet tied to long-term contracts. So I think bulk of PPE impairment may be to the vessels not tied to the long-term contracts. Agree with comment on backing the loss into the retained earnings. Was thinking they would have put it on a separate line. But do not think that necessarily a bad/good thing. Positives: (1) Relative to competitors they at least maintained an operating profit. (2) Given they have taken a big write-down this time including on PPE then going forward the depreciation expense is likely to be lower so net earnings could look better moving forward. (3) The big positive for me was the vast improvement in cash and cash equivalent. At end Q4/2016 it was a bout US$14 mill. Now it US$45 million. They did not get the boost from shareholder advances but rather from receivables etc. Now their cash balance looks much healthier and on par with some other competitors (who whilst have net losses and OPEX losses did have better cash balances). (4) The current ratio is now positive (please do not correct me but when I say positive I just saying current assets higher than current liabilities), and as got break for two years on paying principle for US$168 million of long-term debt then current ratio go good chance of remaining above 1. (5) Their order book is still about US$1 billion so they in a better position than competitors on SGX who really have a stumble on that. (6) In getting rid of much of the dead assets now reduced chance in future so can have some confidence earnings are going to be based on operations etc. (7) From way read it I do not think their revenue is getting anything from Swiber. Could be mistaken on that. But perhaps now got a clearer picture on how they running without Swiber influence. If can make a profit then better than lots of others. (8) As there is signs people are beginning to win contracts (seen a few announcements on Splash of late) then if a recovery is gradually getting roots (though it be slow not fast) then perhaps having bitten the bullet they now in a far better position to move forward with improvements in earnings. (9) And seems like RHC will convert advance to equity - perhaps that good or bad but least can give some certainty moving forward. Happy to be told if views differ. Just how seeing it but happy hear other views. Now for the follow up announcement. sheerluck      ( Date: 22-May-2017 11:22) Posted: No need to think. We are. They really bite the bullet hard.   Might no be a bad thing but they placed everything under owner/retaind earning and it dropped from a positive US$34mil to a big negative US$148mil.   I thought they could be parked in a separate line.   But if you looked at the cashflow from operation, it was actually pretty decent and was so for the last quarter.  I also thought their vessels are backed by long-term contract and will not need to impair PPE by too much.   In the end they still impair about 25%-30% which is quite inline compared to other veseel owners who more vesseel on spot rate.   Anyway, it means either they are prudent or their contracts might be subjected to further downside.   I sort of recall their client did renegotiate a lower charter rate some time back. From 8q, Rawabi is going to do a debt-to-equity swap? (q) Shareholder&rsquo s advance The amount mainly relates to the deemed investment by Rawabi Holding Company Limited (&ldquo RHC&rdquo ) into the Company following an intended undertaking by RHC to convert its shareholder&rsquo s advances to the Company into equity from its subscription to the Proposed Rights cum Warrants Issue and further new equity in the foreseeable future subject to fulfilment of certain conditions. Well I don' t think the share price will move a lot. Let see what news Vallianz is putting out. RedEye1811      ( Date: 22-May-2017 07:45) Posted: I think that we were both far off the mark...I thought that they may go to US$70-80 million as a possible guess...but they shocked me when first looked at numbers....but perhaps need to think of this objectively and think that they have really cleaned house big time which could be good long term...any views? Now TH so got to see what that is about..
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ticktock Master	22-May-2017 11:35        ticktock About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Lot of issues still hanging and no answers, no clarity on swiber receivable payable conflict, no clarity on the outcome of talks with the 2nd bank on debt gaurantee linked to swiber, no updates on being named in the 2 lawsuits along with swiber, no updates whether going for rights or not, no updates on swibers willingness to participate in rights issue. These along with sector facing challenges reduced spendings, lower profits and utilization of vessels...i see further downside in the near future.
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sheerluck Supreme	22-May-2017 11:22        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No need to think. We are. They really bite the bullet hard.   Might no be a bad thing but they placed everything under owner/retaind earning and it dropped from a positive US$34mil to a big negative US$148mil.   I thought they could be parked in a separate line.   But if you looked at the cashflow from operation, it was actually pretty decent and was so for the last quarter.  I also thought their vessels are backed by long-term contract and will not need to impair PPE by too much.   In the end they still impair about 25%-30% which is quite inline compared to other veseel owners who more vesseel on spot rate.   Anyway, it means either they are prudent or their contracts might be subjected to further downside.   I sort of recall their client did renegotiate a lower charter rate some time back. From 8q, Rawabi is going to do a debt-to-equity swap? (q) Shareholder&rsquo s advance The amount mainly relates to the deemed investment by Rawabi Holding Company Limited (&ldquo RHC&rdquo ) into the Company following an intended undertaking by RHC to convert its shareholder&rsquo s advances to the Company into equity from its subscription to the Proposed Rights cum Warrants Issue and further new equity in the foreseeable future subject to fulfilment of certain conditions. Well I don' t think the share price will move a lot. Let see what news Vallianz is putting out. RedEye1811      ( Date: 22-May-2017 07:45) Posted: I think that we were both far off the mark...I thought that they may go to US$70-80 million as a possible guess...but they shocked me when first looked at numbers....but perhaps need to think of this objectively and think that they have really cleaned house big time which could be good long term...any views? Now TH so got to see what that is about... sheerluck      ( Date: 19-May-2017 13:34) Posted: My estimate is US$10mil less than yours.   So about US$45-50mil for Q5 and US$25-30mil for FP17.   Will know on 22 May
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Octavia Supreme	22-May-2017 09:27        Octavia About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Swung to 5QFY17 net loss of US$173.2m (1QFY17 net profit: US$4.9m), hit by US$212.9m of impairments. Quarter revenue sank 21.5% to US$38.7m, from lower utilisation amid challenging market conditions. Gross margin contracted 5.5ppt to 23.8%. NAV/share at US4.12¢ . The group has requested for a trading halt pending the release of an announcement.
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RedEye1811 Master	22-May-2017 07:45        RedEye1811 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think that we were both far off the mark...I thought that they may go to US$70-80 million as a possible guess...but they shocked me when first looked at numbers....but perhaps need to think of this objectively and think that they have really cleaned house big time which could be good long term...any views? Now TH so got to see what that is about... sheerluck      ( Date: 19-May-2017 13:34) Posted: My estimate is US$10mil less than yours.   So about US$45-50mil for Q5 and US$25-30mil for FP17.   Will know on 22 May. RedEye1811      ( Date: 19-May-2017 12:43) Posted: Do you have any views on how deep the loss for Q5 and FY 2016 (that is for 5 quarters) will be? I am thinking US$55 - 60 million for Q5 and US$35 - $40 million for FY shoudl be reasonable. Be disappointed if they did not go deeper. Actually have feeling they will even go deeper to US$70 - 80 million
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sheerluck Supreme	20-May-2017 00:29        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good suggestion knowing the fate of most counters after share consolidation. moron101      ( Date: 19-May-2017 21:22) Posted: For vallianz ,share consolidation is better option over rights issue. to get rid of the penny share image..
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moron101 Supreme	19-May-2017 21:22        moron101 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	For vallianz ,share consolidation is better option over rights issue. to get rid of the penny share image..
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RedEye1811 Master	19-May-2017 13:40        RedEye1811 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Well least roughly in same ball park of about US$50 mil for Q5 and US$30 - 50 mil. Wonder if they will not release it early - well it a weekend before May 22nd - just to let it be absorb over weekend so people hitting panic button is less. Well know May 22nd regardless but hopefully they can clear a good proportion of the luggage and focus on moving on if they can. sheerluck      ( Date: 19-May-2017 13:34) Posted: My estimate is US$10mil less than yours.   So about US$45-50mil for Q5 and US$25-30mil for FP17.   Will know on 22 May. RedEye1811      ( Date: 19-May-2017 12:43) Posted: Do you have any views on how deep the loss for Q5 and FY 2016 (that is for 5 quarters) will be? I am thinking US$55 - 60 million for Q5 and US$35 - $40 million for FY shoudl be reasonable. Be disappointed if they did not go deeper. Actually have feeling they will even go deeper to US$70 - 80 million
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sheerluck Supreme	19-May-2017 13:34        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My estimate is US$10mil less than yours.   So about US$45-50mil for Q5 and US$25-30mil for FP17.   Will know on 22 May. RedEye1811      ( Date: 19-May-2017 12:43) Posted: Do you have any views on how deep the loss for Q5 and FY 2016 (that is for 5 quarters) will be? I am thinking US$55 - 60 million for Q5 and US$35 - $40 million for FY shoudl be reasonable. Be disappointed if they did not go deeper. Actually have feeling they will even go deeper to US$70 - 80 million. sheerluck      ( Date: 19-May-2017 11:01) Posted: Q5 coming soon right.   Waiting to see how much of Swiber they can get rid off.
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RedEye1811 Master	19-May-2017 12:43        RedEye1811 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Do you have any views on how deep the loss for Q5 and FY 2016 (that is for 5 quarters) will be? I am thinking US$55 - 60 million for Q5 and US$35 - $40 million for FY shoudl be reasonable. Be disappointed if they did not go deeper. Actually have feeling they will even go deeper to US$70 - 80 million. sheerluck      ( Date: 19-May-2017 11:01) Posted: Q5 coming soon right.   Waiting to see how much of Swiber they can get rid off.
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RedEye1811 Master	19-May-2017 12:39        RedEye1811 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I suspect likely be a large sell off - probably closer to end of day - as some get out fearful of results announcement. bishalnb      ( Date: 19-May-2017 10:55) Posted: yesterday saw good interest at 1.7c, any chance it could lift up today?
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sheerluck Supreme	19-May-2017 11:52        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If a company wants to raised fund but one shareholder tells the company he is now in bankruptcy proceeding, you think the ccompany will wait for him/her?   No way.   So if the right issues was postponed because of Swiber JM indicated want to partake it is just an execuse.   he real reason is something else. ticktock      ( Date: 19-May-2017 11:24) Posted: Swiber detachment is not easy, they want to exercise their subscription of rights which is why rights were postponed indefinetely. TheSwiber   JM to continue till year end may be extend further. Hold long Long.
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ticktock Master	19-May-2017 11:24        ticktock About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Swiber detachment is not easy, they want to exercise their subscription of rights which is why rights were postponed indefinetely. TheSwiber   JM to continue till year end may be extend further. Hold long Long.
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sheerluck Supreme	19-May-2017 11:01        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Q5 coming soon right.   Waiting to see how much of Swiber they can get rid off.
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bishalnb Master	19-May-2017 10:55        bishalnb About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yesterday saw good interest at 1.7c, any chance it could lift up today?
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ticktock Master	15-May-2017 16:30        ticktock About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	There are many reason why the stock has fallen to this level and again tradig close to its all time low of .015 if fall below .015 level then sure to test .00x levels. Post that recovery will depend on the sector revival...winter not over yet.
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