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tritonyeah666 Elite	25-Oct-2018 20:14        tritonyeah666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	So let's make a guess what will be the "material profit realised before end 2018" ?
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Goldfinger Supreme	25-Oct-2018 18:56        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Oh sorry - I meant that it is unlikely that affordability of properties in (3) would be any big issue.  So, these will likely form a separate pricing tier and wider differential going forward.  Like for example, even while mass market condos edge down curretly, the price of landed stay very high due to scarcity. Qanghoo      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 18:23) Posted: They won' t care abt 3 as a calculated risk they have taken cos they figure that they support base is still mostly in 1 n 2.  But in so doing, they have  disregarded the fact that  some in 3 have foregone very cushy opportunities to attain their goals of being there.  I think it is extremely unjust to dump all of them into one category n deprive them of so much mouth-watering budget goodies while subjecting them to the sam taxes.  Some cld  be even more economically disadvantaged compared to some so-called ' lower income' groups.  But who cares.  Their voices are  too miniscule to be of any meaningful  risks to the powers that be anyway.  Goldfinger      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 16:27) Posted: I think there will be a 3 tier market forming in SG Property - (1) HDB, which will always be affordable, (2) mass market retail condos and ECs, which will be managed within reasonable bounds and affordable, to keep the aspirations of upgrading hopes alive, (3) the high end condos and landed property, which are really for the Top 5 to Top 10% of income earners.  I don' t think SG Cheng Hu really cares about (3), which are not for the man in the street in any case
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Qanghoo Supreme	25-Oct-2018 18:23        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	They won' t care abt 3 as a calculated risk they have taken cos they figure that they support base is still mostly in 1 n 2.  But in so doing, they have  disregarded the fact that  some in 3 have foregone very cushy opportunities to attain their goals of being there.  I think it is extremely unjust to dump all of them into one category n deprive them of so much mouth-watering budget goodies while subjecting them to the sam taxes.  Some cld  be even more economically disadvantaged compared to some so-called ' lower income' groups.  But who cares.  Their voices are  too miniscule to be of any meaningful  risks to the powers that be anyway.  Goldfinger      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 16:27) Posted: I think there will be a 3 tier market forming in SG Property - (1) HDB, which will always be affordable, (2) mass market retail condos and ECs, which will be managed within reasonable bounds and affordable, to keep the aspirations of upgrading hopes alive, (3) the high end condos and landed property, which are really for the Top 5 to Top 10% of income earners.  I don' t think SG Cheng Hu really cares about (3), which are not for the man in the street in any case. Qanghoo      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 15:01) Posted: I think the pt, as u have made, is the political will n vested interests that make it that much harder to rein in runaway property px in HK it' s akin to the american gun laws - so many senseless killings (worse than so many other human rights abuses that america n the west condemn) n yet the pro-gun lobby wins.  For SG, the population density is in fact higher n they are talking abt population reaching 9mil in yr x.  So,  in theory, at least, one wld expect property px here to have shot to the skies already.  But I believe the  immense political will to rein in  px, as demonstrated via the ever stronger dosages of cooling measures over the last three-five yrs,  have helped kept px in check otherwise, I think px wld probably have been substantially higher than they are now.  Will we ever close the gap with HK?  In this case, I' d say never say never.  But from how things have been panning out over the last few yrs,  my haunch is that  chances of that scenario playing out seems remote
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Goldfinger Supreme	25-Oct-2018 16:27        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think there will be a 3 tier market forming in SG Property - (1) HDB, which will always be affordable, (2) mass market retail condos and ECs, which will be managed within reasonable bounds and affordable, to keep the aspirations of upgrading hopes alive, (3) the high end condos and landed property, which are really for the Top 5 to Top 10% of income earners.  I don' t think SG Cheng Hu really cares about (3), which are not for the man in the street in any case. Qanghoo      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 15:01) Posted: I think the pt, as u have made, is the political will n vested interests that make it that much harder to rein in runaway property px in HK it' s akin to the american gun laws - so many senseless killings (worse than so many other human rights abuses that america n the west condemn) n yet the pro-gun lobby wins.  For SG, the population density is in fact higher n they are talking abt population reaching 9mil in yr x.  So,  in theory, at least, one wld expect property px here to have shot to the skies already.  But I believe the  immense political will to rein in  px, as demonstrated via the ever stronger dosages of cooling measures over the last three-five yrs,  have helped kept px in check otherwise, I think px wld probably have been substantially higher than they are now.  Will we ever close the gap with HK?  In this case, I' d say never say never.  But from how things have been panning out over the last few yrs,  my haunch is that  chances of that scenario playing out seems remote. Goldfinger      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 13:13) Posted: Personally, I think the danger for Hong Kong is (1) land leases are generally not freehold and there is no certainty what happens after the leases expire, (2) Hong Kong is losing its competitive edge over the PRC cities over time, (3) with the new bridg and HSR links to Southern Chinese cities - it would be fast and cheap to stay in Guangdong and commute to HK daily, and prop prices in HK would moderate vs these cities.  However, many of the land holders interests are represented strongly in the HK LegCo, so they have some short-term advantages.  In the middle term, I don' t think politically they can stomach the huge income and property affordability and ownership disparity for long - there could be severe social unrest, and the PRC Govt may clamp down hard on astronomical property prices
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Qanghoo Supreme	25-Oct-2018 15:01        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think the pt, as u have made, is the political will n vested interests that make it that much harder to rein in runaway property px in HK it' s akin to the american gun laws - so many senseless killings (worse than so many other human rights abuses that america n the west condemn) n yet the pro-gun lobby wins.  For SG, the population density is in fact higher n they are talking abt population reaching 9mil in yr x.  So,  in theory, at least, one wld expect property px here to have shot to the skies already.  But I believe the  immense political will to rein in  px, as demonstrated via the ever stronger dosages of cooling measures over the last three-five yrs,  have helped kept px in check otherwise, I think px wld probably have been substantially higher than they are now.  Will we ever close the gap with HK?  In this case, I' d say never say never.  But from how things have been panning out over the last few yrs,  my haunch is that  chances of that scenario playing out seems remote. Goldfinger      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 13:13) Posted: Personally, I think the danger for Hong Kong is (1) land leases are generally not freehold and there is no certainty what happens after the leases expire, (2) Hong Kong is losing its competitive edge over the PRC cities over time, (3) with the new bridg and HSR links to Southern Chinese cities - it would be fast and cheap to stay in Guangdong and commute to HK daily, and prop prices in HK would moderate vs these cities.  However, many of the land holders interests are represented strongly in the HK LegCo, so they have some short-term advantages.  In the middle term, I don' t think politically they can stomach the huge income and property affordability and ownership disparity for long - there could be severe social unrest, and the PRC Govt may clamp down hard on astronomical property prices. tritonyeah666      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 11:34) Posted: That is actually a very good pt goldfinger. Totally agree on that. In fact the spread between HK n SG properties should narrow over time both in prices and psf.
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Goldfinger Supreme	25-Oct-2018 13:13        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Personally, I think the danger for Hong Kong is (1) land leases are generally not freehold and there is no certainty what happens after the leases expire, (2) Hong Kong is losing its competitive edge over the PRC cities over time, (3) with the new bridg and HSR links to Southern Chinese cities - it would be fast and cheap to stay in Guangdong and commute to HK daily, and prop prices in HK would moderate vs these cities.  However, many of the land holders interests are represented strongly in the HK LegCo, so they have some short-term advantages.  In the middle term, I don' t think politically they can stomach the huge income and property affordability and ownership disparity for long - there could be severe social unrest, and the PRC Govt may clamp down hard on astronomical property prices. tritonyeah666      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 11:34) Posted: That is actually a very good pt goldfinger. Totally agree on that. In fact the spread between HK n SG properties should narrow over time both in prices and psf.
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tritonyeah666 Elite	25-Oct-2018 11:47        tritonyeah666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I'm talking the rate of change in property prices between SG and HK has to narrow given the context of china stocks being beaten down, china debt in the trillions vis a vis Spore's relatively more stable landscape.
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alexchew Master	25-Oct-2018 11:45        alexchew About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	so u mean hk prices decreasing and sg prices increasing exponentially?  tritonyeah666      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 11:34) Posted: That is actually a very good pt goldfinger. Totally agree on that. In fact the spread between HK n SG properties should narrow over time both in prices and psf.
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tritonyeah666 Elite	25-Oct-2018 11:34        tritonyeah666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That is actually a very good pt goldfinger. Totally agree on that. In fact the spread between HK n SG properties should narrow over time both in prices and psf.
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Goldfinger Supreme	25-Oct-2018 11:23        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think property prices could likely grow over the longer run at a pace of 2-3% per annum. This is to keep in line with GDP growth.  This is likely to be a safer bet than our lovely SGX share prices - which seems to be heading the other direction in the long run.  I find it funny that standard Finance theory accepts that equity prices grow 6% or more in the long run, but this does not hold true in SG. ​ Hence, I am always preferring to be overweight in physical property in SG, compared to other classes. alexchew      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 10:49) Posted: conclusion? Goldfinger      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 10:47) Posted: Incidentally - let me share a perspective about property markets.  Currently, I have been hunting but a lot of older development owners are staying put on their high asking prices.  Why?  This is because they see many old developments going enbloc, and they know there is a floor to their unit value.  If they cannot sell now, they will sell at possibly even higher prices in future.  So will they sell cheap? No, unless they are desparate for money.  Same for landed - they know that landed housing is only 5% or less of all homes in SG. So this is a prestigious group. And enbloc sellers will not be able to buy older developments cheap, and will turn to the landed market.  Unless they are cheerful about staying in HDB.  But, now that they have a good $2m to $3m in enbloc proceeds - are they willing to downgrade after boasting to their friends?  Likely they want to save face. ​ SO - what wll happen?  Older developments with enbloc potential will stay high.  New property prices will come and trend down - but to a certain extent as the Mr G may then step in.  So, its a narrow band we are potentially looking at.
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alexchew Master	25-Oct-2018 11:17        alexchew About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	should be ok.. tuan sing is an investment holding company.. So,they will be able to roll comfortably.. But at wat cost.. TS is good company, maybe not minority shareholder friendly enough. It will still be ard for a long long time.. soundblaster      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 10:55) Posted: --- Post Removed by User ---
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tritonyeah666 Elite	25-Oct-2018 11:11        tritonyeah666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	He's saying that given enough holding power, Tuan Sing will reflect it's nav. It's the value investing methodology as the spread between momentum n value stocks narrow. Problem is the market can be wrong for a very long time, so patience for god knows how many years is needed.
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alexchew Master	25-Oct-2018 10:49        alexchew About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	conclusion? Goldfinger      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 10:47) Posted: Incidentally - let me share a perspective about property markets.  Currently, I have been hunting but a lot of older development owners are staying put on their high asking prices.  Why?  This is because they see many old developments going enbloc, and they know there is a floor to their unit value.  If they cannot sell now, they will sell at possibly even higher prices in future.  So will they sell cheap? No, unless they are desparate for money.  Same for landed - they know that landed housing is only 5% or less of all homes in SG. So this is a prestigious group. And enbloc sellers will not be able to buy older developments cheap, and will turn to the landed market.  Unless they are cheerful about staying in HDB.  But, now that they have a good $2m to $3m in enbloc proceeds - are they willing to downgrade after boasting to their friends?  Likely they want to save face. ​ SO - what wll happen?  Older developments with enbloc potential will stay high.  New property prices will come and trend down - but to a certain extent as the Mr G may then step in.  So, its a narrow band we are potentially looking at.
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Goldfinger Supreme	25-Oct-2018 10:47        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Incidentally - let me share a perspective about property markets.  Currently, I have been hunting but a lot of older development owners are staying put on their high asking prices.  Why?  This is because they see many old developments going enbloc, and they know there is a floor to their unit value.  If they cannot sell now, they will sell at possibly even higher prices in future.  So will they sell cheap? No, unless they are desparate for money.  Same for landed - they know that landed housing is only 5% or less of all homes in SG. So this is a prestigious group. And enbloc sellers will not be able to buy older developments cheap, and will turn to the landed market.  Unless they are cheerful about staying in HDB.  But, now that they have a good $2m to $3m in enbloc proceeds - are they willing to downgrade after boasting to their friends?  Likely they want to save face. ​ SO - what wll happen?  Older developments with enbloc potential will stay high.  New property prices will come and trend down - but to a certain extent as the Mr G may then step in.  So, its a narrow band we are potentially looking at.
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Goldfinger Supreme	25-Oct-2018 10:01        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Waiting at around 32.... tritonyeah666      ( Date: 25-Oct-2018 09:26) Posted: Shorting to 0.33
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tritonyeah666 Elite	25-Oct-2018 09:26        tritonyeah666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Shorting to 0.33
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Goldfinger Supreme	24-Oct-2018 19:39        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I would be wary of spreading panic. One Xiao Trump does not a global crisis make. tritonyeah666      ( Date: 24-Oct-2018 19:36) Posted: Guys, it's not just Tuan Sing, all the Asian stocks now are being liquidated by the big funds for fear of a panic sell off. All the prior buy calls or nav given by analysts have been overstated. Look at Brent price today. It's plunging as well, including all asset classes. It's the start of a crisis so fundamentals no longer matter.
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tritonyeah666 Elite	24-Oct-2018 19:36        tritonyeah666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Guys, it's not just Tuan Sing, all the Asian stocks now are being liquidated by the big funds for fear of a panic sell off. All the prior buy calls or nav given by analysts have been overstated. Look at Brent price today. It's plunging as well, including all asset classes. It's the start of a crisis so fundamentals no longer matter.
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Goldfinger Supreme	24-Oct-2018 19:29        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Wonder why the 37ct to 82ct NAV ie 45% of NAV not mentioned which would be the buffer? This is not even the RNAV which some have estimated to be over $1. Let us be balanced please in our comments. There is good and bad to each. I do not like their stingy dividend policy and related party issues. huathuat88888      ( Date: 24-Oct-2018 19:05) Posted: Confirmed the " scary"   profit margins :  2018 3Q :  Rev : 94.6 mil net  profit : only 3.8 mil profit margin : only 4 %  scary. Any downturn in its biz drop in rev OR increase in expense (e.g. staff) OR salary increase OR bonus increase to top management will be a cause for concern. huathuat88888      ( Date: 24-Oct-2018 00:08) Posted: Look at the rev vs profits. Scary profit magins
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huathuat88888 Elite	24-Oct-2018 19:05        huathuat88888 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Confirmed the " scary"   profit margins :  2018 3Q :  Rev : 94.6 mil net  profit : only 3.8 mil profit margin : only 4 %  scary. Any downturn in its biz drop in rev OR increase in expense (e.g. staff) OR salary increase OR bonus increase to top management will be a cause for concern. huathuat88888      ( Date: 24-Oct-2018 00:08) Posted: Look at the rev vs profits. Scary profit magins. Goldfinger      ( Date: 23-Oct-2018 22:51) Posted: SP Corp just announced better profits. More curious is the performance of GulTech, which has all its factories in China. But then again - Tuan Sing is so diversified with hotels in Aus, office buildings in SG and residential developments - hard to say how any one particular sector will hurt or benefit it.  This is my go to counter, whenever stock prices collapse across the Board
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