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ballball58 Member	11-Dec-2014 09:23        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yeah, I will too.  But you really have to wonder how much more this share can go down to. This panic is really an overkill.
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HVRRVH Elite	11-Dec-2014 09:18        HVRRVH About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If 25 I will throw in whatever I could afford and give it a 1 year window to reap profits👍 ballball58      ( Date: 11-Dec-2014 09:11) Posted: Will NC test 30 or below today? Interesting. Will surely be very interested at 25 level.
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ballball58 Member	11-Dec-2014 09:11        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Will NC test 30 or below today? Interesting. Will surely be very interested at 25 level.
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Heero78 Veteran	10-Dec-2014 10:55        Heero78 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	bro, dun kan cheong lah....real gold is not afraid of fire... but the rebound could be temporary... ballball58      ( Date: 10-Dec-2014 10:49) Posted: NC really struggling today while the other o& g stocks are making reasonable gains. Come on NC..........
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ballball58 Member	10-Dec-2014 10:49        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NC really struggling today while the other o& g stocks are making reasonable gains. Come on NC..........
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sun233 Elite	10-Dec-2014 08:20        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Still a good buy.............
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sheerluck Supreme	09-Dec-2014 22:16        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The risk has definitely increased. Best to work out NC fair value based on these scenarios: - reversal of bts revenue - reversal of bts revenue but add that USD 186mill contract. lifeisgood      ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 21:15) Posted: Understand that Petronas is slashing budget next year by a huge amount. That would negatively affect Nam Cheong ability to sell to Petronas, wont it? sheerluck      ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 15:40) Posted: Looks like market is going to totally discount NC BTS strategy for now.   From OCBC research, NC sold 27 out of 30 vessels this year and target to sell 35 next year.   If NC can confirm that 20 vessels contract, it should help to find some support.   After that NC needs to find buyers for the remaining fleets.   However, the price movement is also telling me that the market is turning very cautious on NC for 2016 which doesn' t seems to have anything within sight.
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lifeisgood Supreme	09-Dec-2014 21:15        lifeisgood About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Understand that Petronas is slashing budget next year by a huge amount. That would negatively affect Nam Cheong ability to sell to Petronas, wont it? sheerluck      ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 15:40) Posted: Looks like market is going to totally discount NC BTS strategy for now.   From OCBC research, NC sold 27 out of 30 vessels this year and target to sell 35 next year.   If NC can confirm that 20 vessels contract, it should help to find some support.   After that NC needs to find buyers for the remaining fleets.   However, the price movement is also telling me that the market is turning very cautious on NC for 2016 which doesn' t seems to have anything within sight.   Heero78      ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 12:06) Posted: Agreed. The BTS model is definitely very risky resulting in strict requirement on cash and debt. But at the same time, this business model also reap faster and more when oil price rebound and capex rise back. So it got its pro and con.
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ranojoy Veteran	09-Dec-2014 18:13        ranojoy About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	There was another 1m share buy back today... but these are too small to make an impact on price.
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ballball58 Member	09-Dec-2014 17:40        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Even share buy-back couldn' t stop the slide today, pity
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Heero78 Veteran	09-Dec-2014 17:24        Heero78 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think this week drop is mainly due to rescission of shipbuilding contract of ASL marine. Maybe NC will have cancellation as well... Hopefully no.... sheerluck      ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 15:40) Posted: Looks like market is going to totally discount NC BTS strategy for now.   From OCBC research, NC sold 27 out of 30 vessels this year and target to sell 35 next year.   If NC can confirm that 20 vessels contract, it should help to find some support.   After that NC needs to find buyers for the remaining fleets.   However, the price movement is also telling me that the market is turning very cautious on NC for 2016 which doesn' t seems to have anything within sight.   Heero78      ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 12:06) Posted: Agreed. The BTS model is definitely very risky resulting in strict requirement on cash and debt. But at the same time, this business model also reap faster and more when oil price rebound and capex rise back. So it got its pro and con.
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sheerluck Supreme	09-Dec-2014 15:40        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Looks like market is going to totally discount NC BTS strategy for now.   From OCBC research, NC sold 27 out of 30 vessels this year and target to sell 35 next year.   If NC can confirm that 20 vessels contract, it should help to find some support.   After that NC needs to find buyers for the remaining fleets.   However, the price movement is also telling me that the market is turning very cautious on NC for 2016 which doesn' t seems to have anything within sight.   Heero78      ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 12:06) Posted: Agreed. The BTS model is definitely very risky resulting in strict requirement on cash and debt. But at the same time, this business model also reap faster and more when oil price rebound and capex rise back. So it got its pro and con. sheerluck      ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 11:02) Posted: I believe market is now placing a cautious look on NC biz model. Risks: Business model - NC' s built-to-stock (bts) model dress up its income statement nicer than those built-to-order (bto) coy.   For NC, not getting contracts is similar to coy whose contract gets cancellation, ie , they both ended up with unsold vessels.   If NC bto vessels also ganna cancellations, it is going to be a double whammy for it. Tax rate - I thought Malayisa corpartion tax ia around 25%.   NC tax expenses are also very low, not where near that level.   This suggested to me that NC taxable profit is much lower than its accounting profit. Cashflow - When times are good, we are happy looking at just income statement, but cashflow statement is where the truth lies and it is more comparable.   NC inventory which I used as a gauge to the level of unsold bts vessels has been increasing for the past three years.   Correspondingly, borrowing (bank or MTN) increases as well.   What can help NC? For short-term simply a confirmation of that US186mil contract.   Long-term, will rest heavily on oil price. The three points under risk are facts, the long-term prospect seems negative for the next 1-2 years and the short-term hope is uncertain.   I no longer have any position in NC. Take my words with a grain of salt and DYDD.   Gd luck.
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Heero78 Veteran	09-Dec-2014 12:06        Heero78 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agreed. The BTS model is definitely very risky resulting in strict requirement on cash and debt. But at the same time, this business model also reap faster and more when oil price rebound and capex rise back. So it got its pro and con. sheerluck      ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 11:02) Posted: I believe market is now placing a cautious look on NC biz model. Risks: Business model - NC' s built-to-stock (bts) model dress up its income statement nicer than those built-to-order (bto) coy.   For NC, not getting contracts is similar to coy whose contract gets cancellation, ie , they both ended up with unsold vessels.   If NC bto vessels also ganna cancellations, it is going to be a double whammy for it. Tax rate - I thought Malayisa corpartion tax ia around 25%.   NC tax expenses are also very low, not where near that level.   This suggested to me that NC taxable profit is much lower than its accounting profit. Cashflow - When times are good, we are happy looking at just income statement, but cashflow statement is where the truth lies and it is more comparable.   NC inventory which I used as a gauge to the level of unsold bts vessels has been increasing for the past three years.   Correspondingly, borrowing (bank or MTN) increases as well.   What can help NC? For short-term simply a confirmation of that US186mil contract.   Long-term, will rest heavily on oil price. The three points under risk are facts, the long-term prospect seems negative for the next 1-2 years and the short-term hope is uncertain.   I no longer have any position in NC. Take my words with a grain of salt and DYDD.   Gd luck.
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sheerluck Supreme	09-Dec-2014 11:02        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I believe market is now placing a cautious look on NC biz model. Risks: Business model - NC' s built-to-stock (bts) model dress up its income statement nicer than those built-to-order (bto) coy.   For NC, not getting contracts is similar to coy whose contract gets cancellation, ie , they both ended up with unsold vessels.   If NC bto vessels also ganna cancellations, it is going to be a double whammy for it. Tax rate - I thought Malayisa corpartion tax ia around 25%.   NC tax expenses are also very low, not where near that level.   This suggested to me that NC taxable profit is much lower than its accounting profit. Cashflow - When times are good, we are happy looking at just income statement, but cashflow statement is where the truth lies and it is more comparable.   NC inventory which I used as a gauge to the level of unsold bts vessels has been increasing for the past three years.   Correspondingly, borrowing (bank or MTN) increases as well.   What can help NC? For short-term simply a confirmation of that US186mil contract.   Long-term, will rest heavily on oil price. The three points under risk are facts, the long-term prospect seems negative for the next 1-2 years and the short-term hope is uncertain.   I no longer have any position in NC. Take my words with a grain of salt and DYDD.   Gd luck.
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ballball58 Member	09-Dec-2014 10:11        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Already the market is spooked by the cancellations for ASL Mar. If the big guns like Kep Corp or Semb Mar or Ezion starts to get cancellations, the panic will deepens. At this stage, it really doesn,t matter if some O& G coy are connected with deep water or shallow water drilling. When there is panic, everyone gets cut to pieces. Logic is thrown out of the window. Absolutely NO ONE knows for sure how this saga will pan out for 2015/2016. Will there be a Capricorn effect for O& G in 2015? Your guess is as good as mine. I think if you have a lot of spare money sitting around and if you have a great pain tolerance, by all means long some of the good coys but if you are not, it' s better to wait a little while until a bit more clarity emerges. Catching a falling knife is not for the faint hearted or financially sensitive.
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Heero78 Veteran	09-Dec-2014 09:55        Heero78 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just hold tight. I also almost 20% loss but nam cheong is a good stock, definitely will rebound when oil rebound. The question is when...hahaha
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ranojoy Veteran	09-Dec-2014 09:48        ranojoy About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I agree NC is a good counter, but sentiments will rule when NC' s orders start to cancel. Then NC will drop to 28 and it would be then good time to accumulate. Oil price is going to stay at $60 level for some time, so expecting NC to outperform in the next 2 months is pretty bleak. My view.... DYODD
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teddybong Member	09-Dec-2014 09:44        teddybong About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Nam Cheong is definitely a counter that is poised for growth in real revenue. Given the current climate, it is a good time to accumulate to ride on the Capricorn effect in Jan/ Feb.
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ballball58 Member	09-Dec-2014 09:32        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, I' m definitely staying far far away ...
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ranojoy Veteran	09-Dec-2014 09:25        ranojoy About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	OCBC released a report today -  downgrade to hold with 0.38 TP. Its better to stay away from this counter until oil could clears.
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