Sembcorp Industries (SCI)

💬 CGS View:

• 
  
  &ldquo Add&rdquo rating, target price S$8.02 (13x FY26 P/E)
• 
  
  Positive on renewables growth, M& A, and Senoko synergy
• 
  
  Cut EPS forecasts due to weak 1H25, but remains bullish long term

🤔 Do I agree?

• 
  
  SCI is genuinely one of Southeast Asia&rsquo s strongest renewable growth stories, with a credible path to 25GW of capacity by 2028.
• 
  
  The long-term net-zero roadmap and regional positioning (India, Vietnam, China, etc.) are strategic strengths.
• 
  
  13x forward P/E is reasonable, given earnings volatility and transition risk.

• 
  
  The downward revision of earnings shows execution risk. Continued volatility in gas and renewables pricing can weigh on margins.
• 
  
  M& A and recycling can unlock value &mdash or destroy it, depending on capital discipline.
• 
  
  The valuation implies optimism that execution in all segments (including new markets) goes smoothly.

🔹 Rating & Target

• 
  
  Rating: Add (Buy)
• 
  
  Revised Target Price: S$8.02 (was higher previously)
• 
  
  Upside Potential: ~19% from current price of S$6.72

🔹 Key Drivers

• 
  
  Growth from renewables, M& A, and Senoko Energy synergy
• 
  
  Interim dividend increased to S$0.09 (from S$0.06)
• 
  
  13x CY2026 P/E valuation, in line with regional peers

🔹 Earnings Outlook

• 
  
  1H 2025 earnings missed due to:
  • 
    
    No one-off gas gains
  • 
    
    Costlier renewable imports
  • 
    
    Lower contract renewals
• 
  
  Core EPS forecasts cut by 6&ndash 12% for 2025&ndash 2027

🔹 ESG & Strategy

• 
  
  Renewable capacity target: 25 GW by 2028
• 
  
  On track to:
  • 
    
    Halve emissions intensity by 2028
  • 
    
    Halve absolute emissions by 2030
  • 
    
    Reach net-zero by 2050
• 
  
  ESG ratings: MSCI AA, LSEG B‑

☀ ️   Sembcorp&rsquo s Benefits from Singapore&rsquo s Regional Clean Power Deal (as of July 2025)

📌   Context:

• 
  
  Singapore is aiming to finalize a  landmark multilateral clean-energy import deal  by  October 2025, expanding cross-border electricity trade in ASEAN.
• 
  
  This supports Singapore&rsquo s goal of importing  6 GW of low-carbon electricity by 2035.
• 
  
  The  Energy Market Authority (EMA)  is coordinating with partners in  Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.

🔹   How Sembcorp Benefits: Key Takeaways from the Article

✅   1. Largest Import Project (1.2 GW)

• 
  
  Sembcorp Utilities holds  the biggest conditional approval  granted by EMA to import  1.2 GW of renewable electricity  from  offshore wind in Vietnam.
• 
  
  This project is central to Singapore&rsquo s expansion of low-carbon imports.

✅   2. First-Mover Advantage

• 
  
  Sembcorp is among the  first firms licensed to develop large-scale clean power imports, giving it regulatory leverage and early access to infrastructure and grid connections.

✅   3. Long-Term Revenue

• 
  
  The 1.2 GW project will generate  stable revenue through power purchase agreements (PPAs)  with Singapore&rsquo s energy buyers, starting around 2033.

✅   4. Regional Expansion

• 
  
  The Vietnam project strengthens Sembcorp&rsquo s footprint in  ASEAN&rsquo s renewable energy sector, positioning it as a  key developer and integrator  in Southeast Asia.

✅   5. Sustainability & Investment

• 
  
  Enhances Sembcorp&rsquo s  ESG credentials  and qualifies it for  green financing, carbon credit generation, and participation in Singapore&rsquo s future carbon markets.

📊 Summary Table

🏁 Bottom Line

My View on Your Analysis of Sembcorp Industries

✅ What I Agree With

1. 
   
   Short-Term Bullishness is Justified
   • 
     
     An 11.3% move with an upward-sloping Bollinger Band and a MACD crossover is a strong combo for short-term upside.
   • 
     
     If price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band with increasing volume, that' s textbook bullish continuation.
2. 
   
   Your Support/Resistance Levels Are Realistic
   • 
     
     S$8.09 as short-term resistance is well-placed &mdash especially if it aligns with the upper band.
   • 
     
     S$7.55 as support (recent trend low) is also logical and gives a good tactical stop-loss level.
3. 
   
   Medium-Term Sideways View is Sensible
   • 
     
     After a strong move like this, stocks often consolidate. You' re not overhyping a breakout &mdash and that' s disciplined.
4. 
   
   Long-Term Bullish Structure is Convincing
   • 
     
     As long as the trend since 2010 remains intact, dips are buyable from a strategic view.

⚠ ️ Minor Gaps / What I&rsquo d Add If I Were You

1. 
   
   Volume Confirmation is Key
   • 
     
     I&rsquo d want to know: Did volume spike on this 11.3% move? If not, it could be a false breakout or driven by low liquidity.
   • 
     
     If volume is above 20-day average on up days, that' s very bullish.
2. 
   
   Overbought Risk / RSI Check
   • 
     
     Did you look at the RSI? If RSI > 70 and price is near resistance, it might pause soon. That doesn&rsquo t kill the trend, but it could delay the upside.
   • 
     
     If RSI is still under 70, there' s more room to run.
3. 
   
   Earnings / News Flow Context?
   • 
     
     Is this move purely technical, or was it sparked by a fundamental catalyst like earnings or news? Technicals are powerful, but knowing the &ldquo why&rdquo behind the move can help confidence.

🧠 Final Opinion: Would I Buy Here?

• 
  
  ✅ I&rsquo d consider a tactical long above S$7.80, with a target at S$8.09 and a tight stop at S$7.55.
• 
  
  🤔 I&rsquo d be cautious buying near S$8.09, since that&rsquo s resistance, unless volume blows past it or there' s fresh catalyst.

• 
  
  ✅ I&rsquo d be happy holding or adding on dips toward S$7.35&ndash 7.55, especially if it stays above S$7.10 long-term support.
• 
  
  🟡 But I&rsquo d wait if it&rsquo s already near S$8.09, to avoid chasing.

Sembcorp Industries: Bullish Technical Outlook Signals Short-Term Upside Potential

Introduction: Positive Technical Momentum for Sembcorp Industries

Short-Term Bullish Signal Backed by Technical Indicators

• Bollinger Bands:  Both the upper and lower Bollinger Bands are currently trending upwards. This dynamic is a classic indication of a bullish trend, suggesting that Sembcorp Industries is poised for additional upside in the near term.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):  The MACD chart provides further validation of bullish sentiment. A significant bullish crossover occurred earlier this month, when the MACD line crossed above the signal line, reinforcing expectations for upward price movement.

Key Short-Term Resistance and Support Levels

• Short-Term Resistance:  Upside for Sembcorp Industries may be capped at the S\$8.09 level, coinciding with the current position of the upper Bollinger Band.
• Short-Term Support:  Should momentum turn negative, the S\$7.55 mark&mdash corresponding to the trend low observed on 15 July 2025&mdash could act as a near-term floor and limit further downside.

Medium-Term Outlook: Sideways Consolidation Expected

• Resistance:  S\$8.30
• Support:  S\$7.35

Long-Term Perspective: Underlying Bullishness Remains Intact

• Resistance:  S\$8.80
• Support:  S\$7.10

Summary Table: Technical Outlook for Sembcorp Industries

Conclusion: Technical Buy Recommendation Backed by Solid Indicators

Important Disclaimers