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RedEye1811 Master	17-Nov-2014 13:22        RedEye1811 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro....Great point on shale not being in equation before so that makes for extra twist. Question at moment is what is the bottom price US shale producers can produce shale oil at. Some say USD$80, others USD$75 and so say lower. If accept USD$75 is there bottomline then current prices will begin to knock them out of market such that shale production may fall. USD$75 is about 30% decline which equates to the average drop in crude oil bear markets so this could form the floor. But if price rises again above USD$80 then this could inspire new shale producers to re-jump into market. So USD$75 - $80 may become a sticky point for prices. Doubt a number of OPEC members want it to go lower than USD$75 as too painful on their budgets. But they may keep it between USD$75 - $80 just to keep shale producers out of market. So downside floor may soon be in play but length of bear market may be longer than previously. If geo-politics swings into play then prices will shoot up. My personal layman' s opinion is crude oil getting into range for a floor to form (though at times may dip lower) but the length bear market sustained will be longer than average. Prices in long-term will begin to creep up to USD$90 and then USD$100 as energy demand increase, shale oil reserves/production stabilizes etc. Of course this can go opposite and prices may shoot back up in sharp " V" tomorrow if global glut not as bad as thought and global demand begins to rise quickly. Qanghoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2014 23:08) Posted: Thx.  That was very informative.  Prior to 2013, shale wasn' t a part of the equation yet.  So, this time, the period of adjustment may be longer, and ultimately prices may not reach previous peaks although I' d venture a guess that oil price at US100 wld be here to stay in the longer term, notwithstanding that the US may become an exporter in maybe two-three yrs.  Geo-politics in play  wlid also likely cause prices to shoot up, especially in times of instability in the Middle East (eg, if the Iran nuclear talks fail and Israel threatens a preemptive strike).  Anyway, I' m no expert.  Just a layman' s kopitiam think-aloud.   RedEye1811      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 19:07) Posted: Since 2011 there has been 2 crude oil bear markets and another that came real close. First was 5/11 - 10/11 when prices WTI declined 31%, second from 2/12 - 6/12 with decline of 27% and near miss 9/13 - 1/14 when fell 18%. This bear currently the most significant since WFC when oil fell from USD140 to around USD 40. The average decline of oil bear market excluding WFC period is about 33% and length is about 130-150 days so current bear market is close in terms of fall and duraction. So if follow those averages the current bear market could soon hit bottom.
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ballball58 Member	17-Nov-2014 00:20        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Well put and I share your view. Qanghoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2014 23:08) Posted: Thx.  That was very informative.  Prior to 2013, shale wasn' t a part of the equation yet.  So, this time, the period of adjustment may be longer, and ultimately prices may not reach previous peaks although I' d venture a guess that oil price at US100 wld be here to stay in the longer term, notwithstanding that the US may become an exporter in maybe two-three yrs.  Geo-politics in play  wlid also likely cause prices to shoot up, especially in times of instability in the Middle East (eg, if the Iran nuclear talks fail and Israel threatens a preemptive strike).  Anyway, I' m no expert.  Just a layman' s kopitiam think-aloud.   RedEye1811      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 19:07) Posted: Since 2011 there has been 2 crude oil bear markets and another that came real close. First was 5/11 - 10/11 when prices WTI declined 31%, second from 2/12 - 6/12 with decline of 27% and near miss 9/13 - 1/14 when fell 18%. This bear currently the most significant since WFC when oil fell from USD140 to around USD 40. The average decline of oil bear market excluding WFC period is about 33% and length is about 130-150 days so current bear market is close in terms of fall and duraction. So if follow those averages the current bear market could soon hit bottom.
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Qanghoo Supreme	16-Nov-2014 23:08        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thx.  That was very informative.  Prior to 2013, shale wasn' t a part of the equation yet.  So, this time, the period of adjustment may be longer, and ultimately prices may not reach previous peaks although I' d venture a guess that oil price at US100 wld be here to stay in the longer term, notwithstanding that the US may become an exporter in maybe two-three yrs.  Geo-politics in play  wlid also likely cause prices to shoot up, especially in times of instability in the Middle East (eg, if the Iran nuclear talks fail and Israel threatens a preemptive strike).  Anyway, I' m no expert.  Just a layman' s kopitiam think-aloud.   RedEye1811      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 19:07) Posted: Since 2011 there has been 2 crude oil bear markets and another that came real close. First was 5/11 - 10/11 when prices WTI declined 31%, second from 2/12 - 6/12 with decline of 27% and near miss 9/13 - 1/14 when fell 18%. This bear currently the most significant since WFC when oil fell from USD140 to around USD 40. The average decline of oil bear market excluding WFC period is about 33% and length is about 130-150 days so current bear market is close in terms of fall and duraction. So if follow those averages the current bear market could soon hit bottom. Qanghoo      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 18:14) Posted: When did the last oilly bear visit us?  Abt four yrs ago?  But prices recovered soon enough.  This will replay itself.  Maybe last one yr or so?  As a electricity consumer and pt commuter, I' d love to see prices stay down forever.  But that' ll be wistful thinking.  And I always believe that if prices go down too low to be profitable, then supply will definitely adjust itself and the up cycle will kick in.  Trouble is these, days, we are not being confronted by fear alone.  Worse is people who know the dynamics use scare tactics to creat fear in others for their own gains.
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linbei Veteran	16-Nov-2014 22:03        linbei About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Huat ah!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Isis just lost the oil refinery to the gov troop.there is hope oil will renounce soon.2 cts view
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RedEye1811 Master	14-Nov-2014 19:07        RedEye1811 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Since 2011 there has been 2 crude oil bear markets and another that came real close. First was 5/11 - 10/11 when prices WTI declined 31%, second from 2/12 - 6/12 with decline of 27% and near miss 9/13 - 1/14 when fell 18%. This bear currently the most significant since WFC when oil fell from USD140 to around USD 40. The average decline of oil bear market excluding WFC period is about 33% and length is about 130-150 days so current bear market is close in terms of fall and duraction. So if follow those averages the current bear market could soon hit bottom. Qanghoo      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 18:14) Posted: When did the last oilly bear visit us?  Abt four yrs ago?  But prices recovered soon enough.  This will replay itself.  Maybe last one yr or so?  As a electricity consumer and pt commuter, I' d love to see prices stay down forever.  But that' ll be wistful thinking.  And I always believe that if prices go down too low to be profitable, then supply will definitely adjust itself and the up cycle will kick in.  Trouble is these, days, we are not being confronted by fear alone.  Worse is people who know the dynamics use scare tactics to creat fear in others for their own gains. nqing87      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 17:23) Posted: nothing we can do about what ppl think.. we do know that those shallow water players serving the production stage in E& P cycle shouldnt be affected that much, even if oil goes to 60+ bucks.. only when oil really go that low, such that oil companies considering to even cut production for shallow water, then will shallow water players be affected.. but market comprise of lots of different kind of ppl.. alot of ppl are just common folks uncle & aunties, who probably know nothing much or dont bother to know.. ppl just associate oil price drop=every oil & gas counters drop.. we can be rational or theoretically correct in our thinking, but market a lot of times are irrational.. just have to observe the market & dont run against them..
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Qanghoo Supreme	14-Nov-2014 18:14        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	When did the last oilly bear visit us?  Abt four yrs ago?  But prices recovered soon enough.  This will replay itself.  Maybe last one yr or so?  As a electricity consumer and pt commuter, I' d love to see prices stay down forever.  But that' ll be wistful thinking.  And I always believe that if prices go down too low to be profitable, then supply will definitely adjust itself and the up cycle will kick in.  Trouble is these, days, we are not being confronted by fear alone.  Worse is people who know the dynamics use scare tactics to creat fear in others for their own gains. nqing87      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 17:23) Posted: nothing we can do about what ppl think.. we do know that those shallow water players serving the production stage in E& P cycle shouldnt be affected that much, even if oil goes to 60+ bucks.. only when oil really go that low, such that oil companies considering to even cut production for shallow water, then will shallow water players be affected.. but market comprise of lots of different kind of ppl.. alot of ppl are just common folks uncle & aunties, who probably know nothing much or dont bother to know.. ppl just associate oil price drop=every oil & gas counters drop.. we can be rational or theoretically correct in our thinking, but market a lot of times are irrational.. just have to observe the market & dont run against them.. junction      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 11:38) Posted: I must disagree with you that oil price down means Nam Cheong down.   In fact if you follow the price chart of Nam Cheong for the last few months, the price has appreciated and they have won more contracts.   Your comments better suits counters like Sembawang Marine and Keppel Corp which specialise in deep water rigs, unlike Nam Cheong.
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nqing87 Supreme	14-Nov-2014 17:23        nqing87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	nothing we can do about what ppl think.. we do know that those shallow water players serving the production stage in E& P cycle shouldnt be affected that much, even if oil goes to 60+ bucks.. only when oil really go that low, such that oil companies considering to even cut production for shallow water, then will shallow water players be affected.. but market comprise of lots of different kind of ppl.. alot of ppl are just common folks uncle & aunties, who probably know nothing much or dont bother to know.. ppl just associate oil price drop=every oil & gas counters drop.. we can be rational or theoretically correct in our thinking, but market a lot of times are irrational.. just have to observe the market & dont run against them.. junction      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 11:38) Posted: I must disagree with you that oil price down means Nam Cheong down.   In fact if you follow the price chart of Nam Cheong for the last few months, the price has appreciated and they have won more contracts.   Your comments better suits counters like Sembawang Marine and Keppel Corp which specialise in deep water rigs, unlike Nam Cheong. victortan      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 10:47) Posted: Nam Cheong is a good counter, but as in Ezion, if oil go dwn, mkt will pressure it to go dwn as well. Even if value vest, why follow dwn, when the trend is so obvious? why not sell and buy back later cheaper and enjoy even more profit on the way up? It is foolish to follow dwn and up and gain little. Just ask, what chances now for oil? and u knw the answer very clearly. wait for oil to bottoem before u buy oil n gas or commodiites counter. US $ is gg for 90 and abv.
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sun233 Elite	14-Nov-2014 11:39        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You are right. Have to wait for oil to stabalize. But the thing with oil is it rebounds just as fast as it drops. victortan      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 10:47) Posted: Nam Cheong is a good counter, but as in Ezion, if oil go dwn, mkt will pressure it to go dwn as well. Even if value vest, why follow dwn, when the trend is so obvious? why not sell and buy back later cheaper and enjoy even more profit on the way up? It is foolish to follow dwn and up and gain little. Just ask, what chances now for oil? and u knw the answer very clearly. wait for oil to bottoem before u buy oil n gas or commodiites counter. US $ is gg for 90 and abv.
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junction Master	14-Nov-2014 11:38        junction About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I must disagree with you that oil price down means Nam Cheong down.   In fact if you follow the price chart of Nam Cheong for the last few months, the price has appreciated and they have won more contracts.   Your comments better suits counters like Sembawang Marine and Keppel Corp which specialise in deep water rigs, unlike Nam Cheong. victortan      ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 10:47) Posted: Nam Cheong is a good counter, but as in Ezion, if oil go dwn, mkt will pressure it to go dwn as well. Even if value vest, why follow dwn, when the trend is so obvious? why not sell and buy back later cheaper and enjoy even more profit on the way up? It is foolish to follow dwn and up and gain little. Just ask, what chances now for oil? and u knw the answer very clearly. wait for oil to bottoem before u buy oil n gas or commodiites counter. US $ is gg for 90 and abv.
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victortan Elite	14-Nov-2014 10:47        victortan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Nam Cheong is a good counter, but as in Ezion, if oil go dwn, mkt will pressure it to go dwn as well. Even if value vest, why follow dwn, when the trend is so obvious? why not sell and buy back later cheaper and enjoy even more profit on the way up? It is foolish to follow dwn and up and gain little. Just ask, what chances now for oil? and u knw the answer very clearly. wait for oil to bottoem before u buy oil n gas or commodiites counter. US $ is gg for 90 and abv.
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sun233 Elite	14-Nov-2014 10:17        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree with you about not trusting anyone. My mantra....... yr money u take care of it yrself. But you are making sweeping statements abt analyst' s. I agree they are 9-5 people but they also are trained in reading financial statements and balance sheets better than us lay people. I prefer banks as they have a better insight into risk analysis than us. I have a friend in JP Morgan HK and he is an actuary. Some of the coversations i' ve had with him tell me that banks do a better job at risk management than brokers etc etc. It' s up to you dude. You have to digest info hence this board. We share and hopefully make some cash along the way. Gd Luck ballball58      ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 12:52) Posted: It is really misleading to call those people working in brokerage houses or banks who give us target prices -  analysts. Instead, I think they should be more accurately be called ' Guessers' or ' Predictors' or ' Information Gatherers' . These people have absolutely no clue what the value of a company is worth or what the stock price of a company will be tomorrow, next week, next month or next quarter. Almost all their info about a company comes from the company PR dept or media. Most of the time, their TPs are wrong and they are  as blur as we the ' stupid money' are. I have nothing against analysts as they are just 9to5 guys or gals like me and they are just doing their jobs. But please don' t trust ' analysts' TP as though it' s gospel truth. Instead, it' s better to treat them as  interesting works of fiction.
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ballball58 Member	13-Nov-2014 12:52        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It is really misleading to call those people working in brokerage houses or banks who give us target prices -  analysts. Instead, I think they should be more accurately be called ' Guessers' or ' Predictors' or ' Information Gatherers' . These people have absolutely no clue what the value of a company is worth or what the stock price of a company will be tomorrow, next week, next month or next quarter. Almost all their info about a company comes from the company PR dept or media. Most of the time, their TPs are wrong and they are  as blur as we the ' stupid money' are. I have nothing against analysts as they are just 9to5 guys or gals like me and they are just doing their jobs. But please don' t trust ' analysts' TP as though it' s gospel truth. Instead, it' s better to treat them as  interesting works of fiction.
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sun233 Elite	13-Nov-2014 10:29        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree that' s why i prefer when a bank initiates a buy call not brokerages.  sgtrader101      ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 08:47) Posted: More like oh No, normally when institutions call for BUY they will start selling. Happened so many times. My 2 cents. sun233      ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 08:39) Posted: DBS initiated buy call......YES!!
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sgtrader101 Senior	13-Nov-2014 08:47        sgtrader101 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	More like oh No, normally when institutions call for BUY they will start selling. Happened so many times. My 2 cents. sun233      ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 08:39) Posted: DBS initiated buy call......YES!!
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linbei Veteran	13-Nov-2014 08:45        linbei About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Huat ah!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ocbc buy call tp is 55
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sun233 Elite	13-Nov-2014 08:39        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	DBS initiated buy call......YES!!
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edwinjup Supreme	13-Nov-2014 06:47        edwinjup About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dont think so...think need to fulfill sgx 50c rule before can give bonus share..that why oxley cancel it bonus share plan....can read more from oxley filing.... linbei      ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 20:49) Posted: or a bonus give out.
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ballball58 Member	13-Nov-2014 06:38        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That would be really yummy but chances are slim I think. But we can hope..................
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linbei Veteran	12-Nov-2014 20:49        linbei About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Huat ah!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	or a bonus give out.
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ballball58 Member	12-Nov-2014 18:24        ballball58 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	With all the TP upgrades, hope the price will firm up a bit more. Really fantastic set of results from a solid company, run by solid management. Can' t be more pleased....perhaps a nice div?
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