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SMRT
Markie
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24-Apr-2014 15:33     
 
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currently, all resistance broked. if can hold today high, likely continue uptrend. if today shooting star, tml downtrend.

next resistance heavily at 1.20. cross this point, all the way up.

remister889      ( Date: 24-Apr-2014 15:31) Posted:



$2 is a tough call.You can get $1.50 alrdy very lucky.

ascend88      ( Date: 24-Apr-2014 15:29) Posted:



sorry....i am waiting for 2$ and beyond...

 

i love counters that are unlove...

 

:)

 

 

 


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remister889
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24-Apr-2014 15:31     
 
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$2 is a tough call.You can get $1.50 alrdy very lucky.

ascend88      ( Date: 24-Apr-2014 15:29) Posted:



sorry....i am waiting for 2$ and beyond...

 

i love counters that are unlove...

 

:)

 

 

 

Markie      ( Date: 24-Apr-2014 15:28) Posted:



i suggest take profit when necessary. look at Q1 result on 30 april and decide =]]


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ascend88
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24-Apr-2014 15:29     
 
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sorry....i am waiting for 2$ and beyond...

 

i love counters that are unlove...

 

:)

 

 

 

Markie      ( Date: 24-Apr-2014 15:28) Posted:



i suggest take profit when necessary. look at Q1 result on 30 april and decide =]]

ascend88      ( Date: 24-Apr-2014 15:26) Posted:



depressed price for too long...

 

now the spring just rocket into space...!


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Markie
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24-Apr-2014 15:28     
 
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i suggest take profit when necessary. look at Q1 result on 30 april and decide =]]

ascend88      ( Date: 24-Apr-2014 15:26) Posted:



depressed price for too long...

 

now the spring just rocket into space...!

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ascend88
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24-Apr-2014 15:26     
 
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depressed price for too long...

 

now the spring just rocket into space...!
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Markie
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24-Apr-2014 15:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Because those who bought already bought in the morning

ascend88      ( Date: 24-Apr-2014 14:53) Posted:



1.14....and nobody shouting ???

all given up?

cheong ah !

 

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ascend88
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24-Apr-2014 14:53     
 
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1.14....and nobody shouting ???

all given up?

cheong ah !

 
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ascend88
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24-Apr-2014 10:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Go Desmond go !
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ascend88
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24-Apr-2014 10:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Went in at 1.02 ... Last week when nobody want to touch it .. :))

Markie      ( Date: 24-Apr-2014 09:49) Posted:

Went in at 1.06 :)

Octavia      ( Date: 09-Apr-2014 09:22) Posted:



SMRT: Hosted analysts on a rare site visit to the Bishan and Kim Chuan depots as part of its efforts to convey the message that the company has turned itself around, with a set of preventative maintenance systems in place. CS was impressed by a &ldquo rail vision system&rdquo set that provides real-time, computerized montoring of its rail-track and third-rail. The newly installed system is able to scan the rail-tracks/ third-rail 6 times a day, and will likely be able to detect tract defects more quickly than traditional maintenance practices, providing additional response time ahead of potential failures. That said, CS is trimming target price to reflect capex increase of $160m over the next 2 years. CS has an underperform on SMRT with TP shaved to $0.98 from $1.05.


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Markie
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24-Apr-2014 09:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Went in at 1.06 :)

Octavia      ( Date: 09-Apr-2014 09:22) Posted:



SMRT: Hosted analysts on a rare site visit to the Bishan and Kim Chuan depots as part of its efforts to convey the message that the company has turned itself around, with a set of preventative maintenance systems in place. CS was impressed by a &ldquo rail vision system&rdquo set that provides real-time, computerized montoring of its rail-track and third-rail. The newly installed system is able to scan the rail-tracks/ third-rail 6 times a day, and will likely be able to detect tract defects more quickly than traditional maintenance practices, providing additional response time ahead of potential failures. That said, CS is trimming target price to reflect capex increase of $160m over the next 2 years. CS has an underperform on SMRT with TP shaved to $0.98 from $1.05.

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ascend88
Master
24-Apr-2014 09:37     
 
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wakie wakie
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Octavia
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09-Apr-2014 09:22     
 
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SMRT: Hosted analysts on a rare site visit to the Bishan and Kim Chuan depots as part of its efforts to convey the message that the company has turned itself around, with a set of preventative maintenance systems in place. CS was impressed by a &ldquo rail vision system&rdquo set that provides real-time, computerized montoring of its rail-track and third-rail. The newly installed system is able to scan the rail-tracks/ third-rail 6 times a day, and will likely be able to detect tract defects more quickly than traditional maintenance practices, providing additional response time ahead of potential failures. That said, CS is trimming target price to reflect capex increase of $160m over the next 2 years. CS has an underperform on SMRT with TP shaved to $0.98 from $1.05.
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enjoylife77
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15-Mar-2014 02:19     
 
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SMRT was an index stock. Once an index stock got removed from STI,  any rebound will not be strong. Cosco, NOL are good example.

Last FY, they fail to maintain their dividend policy of 60% net which was disappointing.

Not vested.
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MetalTrader2
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14-Mar-2014 23:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Prediction (SMRT)
27 Jan b4 open-          I predicted that SMRT current price          $1.19 is far overpriced, and          will move downward below $1 before moving towards its fair value (2 digits).
SMRT's NAV ($0.51)  with packed cabins, frequent breakdowns required increased maintenance cost.          The downtrend will move gradually overtime, which may take months. Besides, the          decrease in dividends  from 7 cents to 2 cents do not make it an attractive stocks.           

Shareholders of SMRT had already received          accumulated dividends          more  than original IPO price-          which essentially means they are holding SMRT stocks are of no cost. (As Dividends over the years > SMRT IPO $0.61).          As SMRT consists of assets which are aging, it is a        depreciating assets (Which will impact the NAV $0.51)
I boldly predict SMRT will fall below $1, and towards the  $0.70- $0.80 range  in months to come.

27 Jan-  Market closed      $1.18
28 Jan-    Market closed      $1.19
29 Jan-    Market closed      $1.165
* Prediction Ended @ 29 Jan (Account Banned by Admin, any update is halted)

As of 14 March SMRT stands at $1.03 
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sun233
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11-Feb-2014 15:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Totally agree that it will go below $1. How far low .....don't really know. All depends on sentiment right now. Will get in them. More pain tomorrow with Yellen testimony. My bet......they will continue with taper....since market already show that it will bounce back. Fingers crossed.

MetalTrader      ( Date: 29-Jan-2014 21:56) Posted:

Prediction (SMRT)
27 Jan b4 open-        I predicted that SMRT current price        $1.19 is far overpriced, and        will move downward below $1 before moving towards its fair value (2 digits).
SMRT's NAV ($0.51)  with packed cabins, frequent breakdowns required increased maintenance cost.        The downtrend will move gradually overtime, which may take months. Besides, the        decrease in dividends  from 7 cents to 2 cents do not make it an attractive stocks.         

Shareholders of SMRT had already received        accumulated dividends        more  than original IPO price-        which essentially means they are holding SMRT stocks are of no cost. (As Dividends over the years > SMRT IPO $0.61).        As SMRT consists of assets which are aging, it is a        depreciating assets (Which will impact the NAV $0.51)
I boldly predict SMRT will fall below $1, and towards the  $0.70- $0.80 range  in months to come.

27 Jan-  Market closed    $1.18
28 Jan-  Market closed    $1.19
29 Jan-  Market closed    $1.165

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Octavia
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06-Feb-2014 09:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The Straits Times flagged that the prospect of a fare hike has failed to lift the fog of pessimism around SMRT, with most analysts maintaining their Sell rating on the stock. Maybank KE has noted that while the fare increase would give SMRT an estimated net benefit of $13.2m pa, this alone may not be sufficient to offset losses in its fare business. SMRT has been seeing escalating costs, mainly due to higher wages (+21% y/y), and this cost component tends to be very sticky and will continue to weigh on SMRT?s bottom line. Meanwhile, the Downtown Line 2 ? operated by rival SBS Transit ? opens in 2016, and will put ~17% of its fare revenue at risk. Analysts have voiced concerns that DTL 2 may erode SMRT?s profits as it runs parallel to the western leg of SMRT?s East-West Line.
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yourdadisme
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29-Jan-2014 22:00     
 
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" $0.70- $0.80 range  in months to come"

 



so how many months, still no balls to say?



no need to post closing price leh...those are not your prediction. 
we can get these figures easily by rolling the  mouse over the charts. 
 

MetalTrader      ( Date: 29-Jan-2014 21:56) Posted:

Prediction (SMRT)
27 Jan b4 open-        I predicted that SMRT current price        $1.19 is far overpriced, and        will move downward below $1 before moving towards its fair value (2 digits).
SMRT's NAV ($0.51)  with packed cabins, frequent breakdowns required increased maintenance cost.        The downtrend will move gradually overtime, which may take months. Besides, the        decrease in dividends  from 7 cents to 2 cents do not make it an attractive stocks.         

Shareholders of SMRT had already received        accumulated dividends        more  than original IPO price-        which essentially means they are holding SMRT stocks are of no cost. (As Dividends over the years > SMRT IPO $0.61).        As SMRT consists of assets which are aging, it is a        depreciating assets (Which will impact the NAV $0.51)
I boldly predict SMRT will fall below $1, and towards the  $0.70- $0.80 range  in months to come.

27 Jan-  Market closed    $1.18
28 Jan-  Market closed    $1.19
29 Jan-  Market closed    $1.165

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MetalTrader
Master
29-Jan-2014 21:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Prediction (SMRT)
27 Jan b4 open-        I predicted that SMRT current price        $1.19 is far overpriced, and        will move downward below $1 before moving towards its fair value (2 digits).
SMRT's NAV ($0.51)  with packed cabins, frequent breakdowns required increased maintenance cost.        The downtrend will move gradually overtime, which may take months. Besides, the        decrease in dividends  from 7 cents to 2 cents do not make it an attractive stocks.         

Shareholders of SMRT had already received        accumulated dividends        more  than original IPO price-        which essentially means they are holding SMRT stocks are of no cost. (As Dividends over the years > SMRT IPO $0.61).        As SMRT consists of assets which are aging, it is a        depreciating assets (Which will impact the NAV $0.51)
I boldly predict SMRT will fall below $1, and towards the  $0.70- $0.80 range  in months to come.

27 Jan-  Market closed    $1.18
28 Jan-  Market closed    $1.19
29 Jan-  Market closed    $1.165
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yourdadisme
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29-Jan-2014 21:46     
 
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Resignalling of the North-South East-West Lines



SMRT will be replacing the signalling system on the North-South East-West (NSEW) Lines to help reduce waiting time for commuters. The $195 million project, which will be completed in phases from 2016, will make it possible for trains to run at an improved frequency of 100 seconds, down from 120 seconds.

The project covers more than 100km of track and involves designing a new signalling system manufacturing and installing the equipment and testing and commissioning the system at all tracks, stations, trains, depots as well as the Operations Control Centre.



 

1. The new signaling system will improve the  frequency of the train during peak hours



current - 30 train per hour
new - 36 train per hour

that translate to having 1 extra train every 10min, 6 more trains  per hour which is pretty damn good.



 

2. with the increase frequency,  it will eliminate the need  to have redundant  train  station ushers. that  will bring down the overall staffing cost. 

3. transportation, properties and advertising works very well. SMRT is starting to realize the true potential of setting up retail shop within the station vicinity,  shops are sprucing up in all stations



4.  maintenance contract are like warranty. like in courts, you pay a flat amount of say $100 for extended warranty of 5 yrs,  whether or not  the product breaks down 1 time or 10 times over the course of 5 yrs. you still pay $100. 

5. the only competitor is transit link, since  most of  the lines are interlink,  they would see themselves in an effort to collaborate rather than to compete. at the end of the day, people who needs to take the train still need the train regardless of how many times it breaks down.
 



 

 



 

gaoshou      ( Date: 29-Jan-2014 10:12) Posted:



Allow me to explain:
  1. SMRT is not your usual service company. Most service companies are able to provide service and operate fully  with very low asset, thus asset value and capital investment is not a good indication of how much it is worth. E.g. A shoes polisher only owns a piece of rag (asset), however the value of his service is usually worth much more than the value of rag. Thus like you claimed, NAV is not a good indicator for MOST service companies.

    However SMRT is  capital-intensive company and it can't operate  AT ALL  without HEAVY investment in those  train, railway, properties etc. While it is fair to say that NAV does not take into account of non tangible value of SMRT business like near monopoly advantage, Gov support etc.  It is also fair to claim that NAV provide a reasonable guideline to SMRT worth.

  2. Other business, properties..... True SMRT has got properties, but as I mentioned in earlier post: For a business to be healthy in the LONG RUN, it can't have cross-subsidies between 2 sectors- transportation and properties. The problems we see now in SMRT is mainly due to the neglegent to its less profitable sector: transport. The lack of effort to improve and streamline the process over the years leads to today inefficiency.



By the way I  am shorting  and my TP is 78  cents and the model I used is  DCF.

Another reason why NAV is a helpful guideline:
    • Any cashflow model assume  stable CF stream over the future period.
    • SMRT might have steady CF in the past, but not now!
    • Right now SMRT CF is 'erractic', as its CF might be lowered by fines, lawsuit, potential huge repair fees!
    • Though CF model is still usable on SMRT since it remains a cash cow business, but it is less aptly now
    • Thus NAV provide a helpful 'cross-check'.

Hope I can get > 30% net  return (after deducting borrowing  fee)  from this counter.

srichipan      ( Date: 29-Jan-2014 04:22) Posted:

Why doesn't it matter when it other business heavily influence it's revenue and you are not factoring it
In.

Ok then I shall repeat. NAV is a not a good indicator. Present value of future cash flow will be better
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gaoshou
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29-Jan-2014 10:12     
 
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Allow me to explain:
  1. SMRT is not your usual service company. Most service companies are able to provide service and operate fully  with very low asset, thus asset value and capital investment is not a good indication of how much it is worth. E.g. A shoes polisher only owns a piece of rag (asset), however the value of his service is usually worth much more than the value of rag. Thus like you claimed, NAV is not a good indicator for MOST service companies.

    However SMRT is  capital-intensive company and it can't operate  AT ALL  without HEAVY investment in those  train, railway, properties etc. While it is fair to say that NAV does not take into account of non tangible value of SMRT business like near monopoly advantage, Gov support etc.  It is also fair to claim that NAV provide a reasonable guideline to SMRT worth.

  2. Other business, properties..... True SMRT has got properties, but as I mentioned in earlier post: For a business to be healthy in the LONG RUN, it can't have cross-subsidies between 2 sectors- transportation and properties. The problems we see now in SMRT is mainly due to the neglegent to its less profitable sector: transport. The lack of effort to improve and streamline the process over the years leads to today inefficiency.



By the way I  am shorting  and my TP is 78  cents and the model I used is  DCF.

Another reason why NAV is a helpful guideline:
    • Any cashflow model assume  stable CF stream over the future period.
    • SMRT might have steady CF in the past, but not now!
    • Right now SMRT CF is 'erractic', as its CF might be lowered by fines, lawsuit, potential huge repair fees!
    • Though CF model is still usable on SMRT since it remains a cash cow business, but it is less aptly now
    • Thus NAV provide a helpful 'cross-check'.

Hope I can get > 30% net  return (after deducting borrowing  fee)  from this counter.

srichipan      ( Date: 29-Jan-2014 04:22) Posted:

Why doesn't it matter when it other business heavily influence it's revenue and you are not factoring it
In.

Ok then I shall repeat. NAV is a not a good indicator. Present value of future cash flow will be better
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