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Alliance Mineral....The Next Lap. Post Reply Rate topic
amlithiumpower Senior	13-Oct-2017 13:13        amlithiumpower About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	One of my kaki sold some at open and the counterparty is Instinet. Anyway, we can always take it with a pinch of salt. Like I had said Credit Suisse buying at 25 and 30c earlier on. timothylim890      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 13:05) Posted: How do you know that Instinet is buying? Just curious amlithiumpower      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:54) Posted: Instinet buying at 34c at open. Instinet  is an institutional, agency-only  broker  that also serves as the independent  equity trading  arm of its parent,  Nomura Group. It executes trades for  asset management  firms,  hedge funds, insurance companies,  mutual funds  and  pension funds. Nomura Holdings, Inc.  (野 村 ホ ー ル デ ィ ン グ ス 株 式 会 社 ) is a  Japanese  financial  holding company, and a principal member of the  Nomura Group. It, along with its broker-dealer, banking and other financial services subsidiaries, provides investment, financing and related services to individual, institutional and government customers on a global basis with an emphasis on securities businesses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instinet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomura_Group Watch out for it guys. Credit Suisse in at 25 and 30. Instinet in at 34. CEO mentioned he' s in talk with Japanese counterparty and private equity firm. Maybe Nomura Holdings is the mystery private equity fund. DYODD and IMO
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luanboo Member	13-Oct-2017 13:11        luanboo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Well Twinpower, depends on how you see it. Go back to 25 Apr 2017, during the court settlement, when the court awards $30m in settlement to JL. Instead of paying JL $30m in cash, Tjandra proposed the following: 1) $7m in cash 2) $23m in stock - Tjandra literally has to give JL 100m shares (for discussion sake, just assume the SP then was 23c). Tjandra then propose to transfer 46m shares with a strike price agreement of 50c. I think it was a smart move by Tjandra, as he hope that 6 months gives him the opportunity to move the share prices to 50c. Even if the share price move to 40c, he will get to pay less in cash and he gets 6 months of " delay" - better cashflow management? As far as I see it, what' s there to lose for him on the strike price? He has to pay JL $30m anyway.   twinpower      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:53) Posted: I think you nailed it spot on. JL will not intentionally sabotage the share prices. Having said this, should prices fall instead due to market forces, JL may not be in a worse off situation. In short, this silly strike option arrangement puts JL in an absolute win win situation. luanboo      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:32) Posted: Timonthy, I fully agree - the runway is too short and would be difficult to pull such a stunt. In any case, my key point is - be it Tjandra/JL/shareholders/even ST traders (except the shortists), everyone wants the SP to move up as much as possible. I doubt JL will intentionally use his financial power to sabotage the share prices and prevent it from rising. No benefit to him to depress the share price, unless he' s on a accumulation mode
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timothylim890 Veteran	13-Oct-2017 13:05        timothylim890 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	How do you know that Instinet is buying? Just curious amlithiumpower      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:54) Posted: Instinet buying at 34c at open. Instinet  is an institutional, agency-only  broker  that also serves as the independent  equity trading  arm of its parent,  Nomura Group. It executes trades for  asset management  firms,  hedge funds, insurance companies,  mutual funds  and  pension funds. Nomura Holdings, Inc.  (野 村 ホ ー ル デ ィ ン グ ス 株 式 会 社 ) is a  Japanese  financial  holding company, and a principal member of the  Nomura Group. It, along with its broker-dealer, banking and other financial services subsidiaries, provides investment, financing and related services to individual, institutional and government customers on a global basis with an emphasis on securities businesses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instinet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomura_Group Watch out for it guys. Credit Suisse in at 25 and 30. Instinet in at 34. CEO mentioned he' s in talk with Japanese counterparty and private equity firm. Maybe Nomura Holdings is the mystery private equity fund. DYODD and IMO
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sheerluck Supreme	13-Oct-2017 13:03        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	These are just scenarios that we all here speculating.  You will better off knowing the full story and analysing the situation to make your decision. WL123456      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:55) Posted: Thank for the info . Now I know why the price won?t Cheong . So it?s better to wait and collect lower . 👍 sheerluck      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:34) Posted: You' ll have already analysed this before.  luanboo assumption is JL dump those 46mil shares on the 24 Oct.  But to maximise his benefit, his dump as many as he can (after first refusal by LWM) to depress the price to pocket the difference but still keep the shares as AMAL price will rebound back.  If the rpice eventually rise to 50cts, then under scenario 1, JL pocket $13.8mil + $23mil. On surface one can see it this way, JL is pretty much guaranteed the return of his investment of $7mil with the seized shares.  Those 46mils shares which LWM transferred to him on a goodwill basis (still cannot understand why do this) are all extra.  Deep down, how JL wants to play this, who knows.
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sheerluck Supreme	13-Oct-2017 13:01        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I reserved on doubt on JL.  He seems more of an opportunitist than a long term investor. twinpower      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:53) Posted: I think you nailed it spot on. JL will not intentionally sabotage the share prices. Having said this, should prices fall instead due to market forces, JL may not be in a worse off situation. In short, this silly strike option arrangement puts JL in an absolute win win situation. luanboo      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:32) Posted: Timonthy, I fully agree - the runway is too short and would be difficult to pull such a stunt. In any case, my key point is - be it Tjandra/JL/shareholders/even ST traders (except the shortists), everyone wants the SP to move up as much as possible. I doubt JL will intentionally use his financial power to sabotage the share prices and prevent it from rising. No benefit to him to depress the share price, unless he' s on a accumulation mode
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WL123456 Supreme	13-Oct-2017 12:55        WL123456 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thank for the info . Now I know why the price won?t Cheong . So it?s better to wait and collect lower . 👍 sheerluck      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:34) Posted: You' ll have already analysed this before.  luanboo assumption is JL dump those 46mil shares on the 24 Oct.  But to maximise his benefit, his dump as many as he can (after first refusal by LWM) to depress the price to pocket the difference but still keep the shares as AMAL price will rebound back.  If the rpice eventually rise to 50cts, then under scenario 1, JL pocket $13.8mil + $23mil. On surface one can see it this way, JL is pretty much guaranteed the return of his investment of $7mil with the seized shares.  Those 46mils shares which LWM transferred to him on a goodwill basis (still cannot understand why do this) are all extra.  Deep down, how JL wants to play this, who knows.   timothylim890      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:03) Posted: This is an interesting analysis, thanks for sharing luanboo
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amlithiumpower Senior	13-Oct-2017 12:54        amlithiumpower About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Instinet buying at 34c at open. Instinet  is an institutional, agency-only  broker  that also serves as the independent  equity trading  arm of its parent,  Nomura Group. It executes trades for  asset management  firms,  hedge funds, insurance companies,  mutual funds  and  pension funds. Nomura Holdings, Inc.  (野 村 ホ ー ル デ ィ ン グ ス 株 式 会 社 ) is a  Japanese  financial  holding company, and a principal member of the  Nomura Group. It, along with its broker-dealer, banking and other financial services subsidiaries, provides investment, financing and related services to individual, institutional and government customers on a global basis with an emphasis on securities businesses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instinet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomura_Group Watch out for it guys. Credit Suisse in at 25 and 30. Instinet in at 34. CEO mentioned he' s in talk with Japanese counterparty and private equity firm. Maybe Nomura Holdings is the mystery private equity fund. DYODD and IMO
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twinpower Member	13-Oct-2017 12:53        twinpower About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think you nailed it spot on. JL will not intentionally sabotage the share prices. Having said this, should prices fall instead due to market forces, JL may not be in a worse off situation. In short, this silly strike option arrangement puts JL in an absolute win win situation. luanboo      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:32) Posted: Timonthy, I fully agree - the runway is too short and would be difficult to pull such a stunt. In any case, my key point is - be it Tjandra/JL/shareholders/even ST traders (except the shortists), everyone wants the SP to move up as much as possible. I doubt JL will intentionally use his financial power to sabotage the share prices and prevent it from rising. No benefit to him to depress the share price, unless he' s on a accumulation mode. twinpower      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:13) Posted: I agree with you that it is not JL's intention to push down the SP. At the same time, realistically, i also do not think there is sufficient time and news trigger to push the price up to 50c by 24 October. I sure hope i am wrong though haha.
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sheerluck Supreme	13-Oct-2017 12:53        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The 46 mil shares transferred.  Those 72mil shares are sezied due to the $7mil loan from JL years back and the maximum values JL can extract from those 72mil shares is $7mil.  The rest he need to return.  If he and Tjandra can settle on the $7mil loan, then he return all 72mil shares.  So effectively, he only owed those 46mil shares. luanboo      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:42) Posted: Don' t quite get it. Assuming JL manage to dump the 46m shares totally, even when the price rebound back to 50c, he has no more shares? You talking about the 72m seized shares or the 46m transferred to him? sheerluck      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:34) Posted: You' ll have already analysed this before.  luanboo assumption is JL dump those 46mil shares on the 24 Oct.  But to maximise his benefit, his dump as many as he can (after first refusal by LWM) to depress the price to pocket the difference but still keep the shares as AMAL price will rebound back.  If the rpice eventually rise to 50cts, then under scenario 1, JL pocket $13.8mil + $23mil. On surface one can see it this way, JL is pretty much guaranteed the return of his investment of $7mil with the seized shares.  Those 46mils shares which LWM transferred to him on a goodwill basis (still cannot understand why do this) are all extra.  Deep down, how JL wants to play this, who knows.
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luanboo Member	13-Oct-2017 12:44        luanboo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hold on guys. Peace! We are here to discuss and share info/ideas. No need to challenge and insult each other. deedee6699      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:41) Posted: But you dont dare. That is the difference ! You talk a lot. No action. WL123456      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:33) Posted: Why need guts ? Based on what you say , it?s a sure win scenario right ? Definitely will hit 0.50. I am gonna throw all my savings and whatever last cent I have . Gonna make my next condo on AMAL.
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luanboo Member	13-Oct-2017 12:42        luanboo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don' t quite get it. Assuming JL manage to dump the 46m shares totally, even when the price rebound back to 50c, he has no more shares? You talking about the 72m seized shares or the 46m transferred to him? sheerluck      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:34) Posted: You' ll have already analysed this before.  luanboo assumption is JL dump those 46mil shares on the 24 Oct.  But to maximise his benefit, his dump as many as he can (after first refusal by LWM) to depress the price to pocket the difference but still keep the shares as AMAL price will rebound back.  If the rpice eventually rise to 50cts, then under scenario 1, JL pocket $13.8mil + $23mil. On surface one can see it this way, JL is pretty much guaranteed the return of his investment of $7mil with the seized shares.  Those 46mils shares which LWM transferred to him on a goodwill basis (still cannot understand why do this) are all extra.  Deep down, how JL wants to play this, who knows.   timothylim890      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:03) Posted: This is an interesting analysis, thanks for sharing luanboo
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deedee6699 Member	13-Oct-2017 12:41        deedee6699 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	But you dont dare. That is the difference ! You talk a lot. No action. WL123456      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:33) Posted: Why need guts ? Based on what you say , it?s a sure win scenario right ? Definitely will hit 0.50. I am gonna throw all my savings and whatever last cent I have . Gonna make my next condo on AMAL. deedee6699      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:27) Posted: Need guts to make fortunes. No guts No risks No gains. All tycoons become tycoons because they have guts to invest. You stay sideline. You no win no lose.
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sheerluck Supreme	13-Oct-2017 12:34        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You' ll have already analysed this before.  luanboo assumption is JL dump those 46mil shares on the 24 Oct.  But to maximise his benefit, his dump as many as he can (after first refusal by LWM) to depress the price to pocket the difference but still keep the shares as AMAL price will rebound back.  If the rpice eventually rise to 50cts, then under scenario 1, JL pocket $13.8mil + $23mil. On surface one can see it this way, JL is pretty much guaranteed the return of his investment of $7mil with the seized shares.  Those 46mils shares which LWM transferred to him on a goodwill basis (still cannot understand why do this) are all extra.  Deep down, how JL wants to play this, who knows.   timothylim890      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:03) Posted: This is an interesting analysis, thanks for sharing luanboo. luanboo      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 11:46) Posted: Folks, I don' t think it is true that JL wanted the SP to be as low as possible. Accordig to TheEdge article on 10 Jul 2017,  " The April 25 agreement also had a put and strike option. If AMA shares did not hit 50 cents six months after the agreement date, which is Oct 24 2017, Pramoko and LWMA would have to pay Lim the sum equivalent to the difference between the volume weighted average price of the seven days prior the date, and 50 cents." Scenario1 - VWAP = 20c. JL will get $23m ($9.2m in 46m shares, $13.8m cash) Scenario2 - VWAP = 30c. JL will get $23m ($13.8m in 46m shares, $9.2m cash) Scenario3 - VWAP = 50c. JL will get $23m ($23m in 46m shares) Scenario4 - VWAP = 60c. JL will get $27.6m ($27.6m in 46m shares) If SP remains 50c or below, JL will get $23m - the same under S1 or S2 or S3. Under S1 or S2, if he believes in AMAL' s future and wanted more shares, he can use the cash received to buy more in the market. If he wants more cash, he just offload his 46m shares. He wouldn' t want the share price to tank as he has 46m shares to offload. If SP goes above 50c (S4), JL stand to gain. So why would he (a shrew businessman) want to suppress the share prices when he clearly get 46m shares and stand to gain more when share price rises?
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WL123456 Supreme	13-Oct-2017 12:33        WL123456 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Why need guts ? Based on what you say , it?s a sure win scenario right ? Definitely will hit 0.50. I am gonna throw all my savings and whatever last cent I have . Gonna make my next condo on AMAL. deedee6699      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:27) Posted: Need guts to make fortunes. No guts No risks No gains. All tycoons become tycoons because they have guts to invest. You stay sideline. You no win no lose. WL123456      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:21) Posted: So I can throw my entire family fortune in now ? Sell it for 0.60 on the 24th ? Money so easy to earn ? Lol
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deedee6699 Member	13-Oct-2017 12:32        deedee6699 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Or what if Tawana Resources do a merged offer with Amal next weel valuing Amal at 45 to 50 cts ps ? deedee6699      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:25) Posted: What if Burwill make a takeover or merger offer valuing Amal at $0.50 a share ? deedee6699      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:19) Posted: See the trend. As the date gets closer to 24 Oct. Last week : 29.5 ~ 33 cts. This week : 34 cts ~ 38 cts (today closing price) Next week : 16 , 17 Oct : 38.5 ~ 40 cts 18 Oct : PH 19 Oct : Trading Halt 23 Oct : Gap Up 45 ~ 55 cts (biggest volume) Avg Wt Price 1 week before 24 Oct : 50 cts
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luanboo Member	13-Oct-2017 12:32        luanboo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Timonthy, I fully agree - the runway is too short and would be difficult to pull such a stunt. In any case, my key point is - be it Tjandra/JL/shareholders/even ST traders (except the shortists), everyone wants the SP to move up as much as possible. I doubt JL will intentionally use his financial power to sabotage the share prices and prevent it from rising. No benefit to him to depress the share price, unless he' s on a accumulation mode. twinpower      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:13) Posted: I agree with you that it is not JL's intention to push down the SP. At the same time, realistically, i also do not think there is sufficient time and news trigger to push the price up to 50c by 24 October. I sure hope i am wrong though haha.. timothylim890      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:03) Posted: This is an interesting analysis, thanks for sharing luanboo
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deedee6699 Member	13-Oct-2017 12:27        deedee6699 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Need guts to make fortunes. No guts No risks No gains. All tycoons become tycoons because they have guts to invest. You stay sideline. You no win no lose. WL123456      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:21) Posted: So I can throw my entire family fortune in now ? Sell it for 0.60 on the 24th ? Money so easy to earn ? Lol deedee6699      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:19) Posted: See the trend. As the date gets closer to 24 Oct. Last week : 29.5 ~ 33 cts. This week : 34 cts ~ 38 cts (today closing price) Next week : 16 , 17 Oct : 38.5 ~ 40 cts 18 Oct : PH 19 Oct : Trading Halt 23 Oct : Gap Up 45 ~ 55 cts (biggest volume) Avg Wt Price 1 week before 24 Oct : 50 cts
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deedee6699 Member	13-Oct-2017 12:25        deedee6699 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	What if Burwill make a takeover or merger offer valuing Amal at $0.50 a share ? deedee6699      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:19) Posted: See the trend. As the date gets closer to 24 Oct. Last week : 29.5 ~ 33 cts. This week : 34 cts ~ 38 cts (today closing price) Next week : 16 , 17 Oct : 38.5 ~ 40 cts 18 Oct : PH 19 Oct : Trading Halt 23 Oct : Gap Up 45 ~ 55 cts (biggest volume) Avg Wt Price 1 week before 24 Oct : 50 cts twinpower      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:13) Posted: I agree with you that it is not JL's intention to push down the SP. At the same time, realistically, i also do not think there is sufficient time and news trigger to push the price up to 50c by 24 October. I sure hope i am wrong though haha.
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WL123456 Supreme	13-Oct-2017 12:21        WL123456 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	So I can throw my entire family fortune in now ? Sell it for 0.60 on the 24th ? Money so easy to earn ? Lol deedee6699      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:19) Posted: See the trend. As the date gets closer to 24 Oct. Last week : 29.5 ~ 33 cts. This week : 34 cts ~ 38 cts (today closing price) Next week : 16 , 17 Oct : 38.5 ~ 40 cts 18 Oct : PH 19 Oct : Trading Halt 23 Oct : Gap Up 45 ~ 55 cts (biggest volume) Avg Wt Price 1 week before 24 Oct : 50 cts twinpower      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:13) Posted: I agree with you that it is not JL's intention to push down the SP. At the same time, realistically, i also do not think there is sufficient time and news trigger to push the price up to 50c by 24 October. I sure hope i am wrong though haha.
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deedee6699 Member	13-Oct-2017 12:19        deedee6699 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	See the trend. As the date gets closer to 24 Oct. Last week : 29.5 ~ 33 cts. This week : 34 cts ~ 38 cts (today closing price) Next week : 16 , 17 Oct : 38.5 ~ 40 cts 18 Oct : PH 19 Oct : Trading Halt 23 Oct : Gap Up 45 ~ 55 cts (biggest volume) Avg Wt Price 1 week before 24 Oct : 50 cts twinpower      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:13) Posted: I agree with you that it is not JL's intention to push down the SP. At the same time, realistically, i also do not think there is sufficient time and news trigger to push the price up to 50c by 24 October. I sure hope i am wrong though haha.. timothylim890      ( Date: 13-Oct-2017 12:03) Posted: This is an interesting analysis, thanks for sharing luanboo
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