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STI 3,000 boosted by pivot investors mkt players
JustGreat
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26-Apr-2014 18:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Must be fast though. DYODd
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JustGreat
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26-Apr-2014 16:09     
 
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Short in May and Huat Big Big

yesyesyes
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WanSiTong
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26-Apr-2014 16:05     
 
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Let&rsquo s Talk About &ldquo Sell in May and Go Away&rdquo

April 25, 2014

And just like that, we&rsquo re almost done with the month of April. So you know what that means? The &lsquo Sell in May and Go Away&rsquo chatter now begins.  Does it work? Does it not work? Should we always sell in May? Why does it work? Where does this come from? What if I&rsquo m more long-term?  What if it&rsquo s a midterm election year?  All great questions.



Let&rsquo s begin with where this originally came from. The old saying is officially,


&ldquo Sell in May and go away. Stay away till St. Leger&rsquo s Day&rdquo


The inference here is that there&rsquo s no point owning stocks during the summer. The big boys won&rsquo t get back to business until Horse Racing season in England is over in the Fall. The British have been celebrating this day in September since the St. Leger Stakes (last leg of the English Triple Crown) was established in 1776. In America, we like to call this time of the year, &ldquo Football Season&rdquo .

So should we listen? Does the math behind this make any sense? I think it does. If you use the Dow Jones Industrial Average and go back to 1950, the statistics are simply staggering. Hypothetically, had you invested $10,000 but only owned stocks between November 1st through April each year, on April 30th of 2013 that $10,000 would have been worth $775,055. That&rsquo s pretty awesome. Now, had you done the exact opposite and purchased the Dow Industrials every year on May 1 and sold on Halloween, you would have actually lost $687 over the past 63 years.

4-22-14-10k-invested-1950-and-avg-perc1

Look at the average percentage moves. You can choose to ignore those numbers if you want. But I like to think that seasonality is against us as we enter the summer season. Call me crazy.

But it wasn&rsquo t always like this. In fact, before 1950 it was profitable to be a buyer in May. At the time, farming was the big driver of the US economy, so this made August the best month of the year from 1901-1950. Today, farming makes up less than 2% of the US Economy, so since 1987, August has actually been the second worst month of the year for the Dow and S& P.

Here is the one-year seasonal pattern from the Stock Traders Almanac. Look at the difference between the pre-1950 period compared with the behavioral patterns since then:

4-22-14 1 yr seasonal since 1901

During mid-term election years, the numbers get even worse. Remember, this is traditionally the worst year of the 4-year Presidential Cycle. So the &ldquo worst six months&rdquo statistics warn us even more. The average return during this upcoming 6-month period on midterm years is -0.43%. The stats don&rsquo t lie. Here is the Presidential Cycle Composite chart for the S& P500 going back to 1928. Notice how historically, major bottoms are put in during the Fall of midterm years:

4-22-14 Presidential Cycle

Based on the Presidential Cycle and 6-month cycle, we are entering a period of time where the US Stock market tends to struggle. But if history is any indication, this could be one of the best buying opportunities we&rsquo ve had in years. But we&rsquo ll worry about that when the time comes.

I&rsquo ve been bearish about US Stocks all year long. This is just another feather on the hat for the bears and I don&rsquo t see any reason to be optimistic about the US Stock Market Indexes. There will always be individual non-correlated names that do well that won&rsquo t change. But as far as the market as a whole is concerned, I will continue to keep a bearish/neutral stance. At least for now. 

 
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WanSiTong
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26-Apr-2014 16:00     
 
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Markets



CHART OF THE DAY: &lsquo Sell In May And Go Away&rdquo

Apr. 25, 2014, 7:51 PM
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One of the oldest &ldquo rules&rdquo on Wall Street is &ldquo sell in May and go away.&rdquo

Based on some rough historical observations, someone decided that it might be a great idea to stay out of the stock market between May and some time in the fall.

FBN Securities J.C. O&rsquo Hara ran the numbers for the past 20 years and charted the returns.

&ldquo The majority of the time the market was unimpressive over those summer months,&rdquo he said. &ldquo The majority of the markets returns were housed in the first model that was long the months into May and the months after Sept.&rdquo

Of course, history is at best a guide, not gospel.

&ldquo As we approach May we are not in the SELL camp yet, but rather acknowledge the fact that a volatile, sideways moving market is what history implies,&rdquo said O&rsquo Hara.

 
cotd sell in may

 
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JustGreat
Senior
26-Apr-2014 13:43     
 
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Looks like the world tensions are just nice for the " sell in May and go away" saying to be fulfilled again.  yes

I will be looking to short the market in coming days.
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victortan
Elite
26-Apr-2014 13:26     
 
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and if we are holding solid mid cap, why sell, shd be looking to acc more. market crash got nothing to scare, 

except a sign to buy more, rahter   then a sign to get out .cheeky

victortan      ( Date: 26-Apr-2014 13:17) Posted:



and while waiting, we collect div for solid mid cap ,like my NSL, chipES and some.

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victortan
Elite
26-Apr-2014 13:17     
 
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and while waiting, we collect div for solid mid cap ,like my NSL, chipES and some.
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victortan
Elite
26-Apr-2014 13:16     
 
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Thus it is always gd to have some spare cash , insist of selling we buy more when mkt come down will be a better way to profit.

victortan      ( Date: 26-Apr-2014 13:12) Posted:



sell in May, then when u buy back?

What if u have to buy back more expensive?

Octavia      ( Date: 26-Apr-2014 12:45) Posted:

Sell In May???



As readers will recall  of what equity performance this month was supposed to look like, at least based on historical data, April was supposed to be the best month of the year.



Sadly for the bulls, it has been anything but. That' s the good news. The bad news is that as most know the old saying " sell in May and go away" , there is nothing but pain for the next six months.

As FBN' s JC O' Hara explains, the &ldquo Sell in May&rdquo slogan heard around Wall Street has some truth behind it. The gist of the saying suggests it&rsquo s better to be out of the market come May and re-enter during the fall months.

We ran the numbers over the last 20 years and found validity to the statement. We created a model that went long the market Jan, Feb, March, April, Oct, Nov & Dec. as well as a second model that went long the market May through Sept 30. We concluded that the May &ndash Sept time period model, on average over the past 20 years, would have lost you money. The majority of the time the market was unimpressive over those summer months. The majority of the markets returns were housed in the first model that was long the months into May and the months after Sept. While there were instances where May &ndash Sept was negative, the risk adjusted returns suggests investors do not necessarily need to exit the market but should expect flat markets with little if any of the yearly gains coming during this time period. The real money was made during other 7 months of the year. As we approach May we are not in the SELL camp yet, but rather acknowledge the fact that a volatile, stagnant, sideways moving market is what history implies. Over the next few pages of this report we examine the past 20 years and highlight where the majority of returns are found.

Naturally, all of the above implies that rigged, centrally-planned markets are even remotely comparable to normal historical markets, and trade paterns. They aren' t. Still, for those who are curious what the infamous Sell in May phenomenon looks like, here it is:





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victortan
Elite
26-Apr-2014 13:14     
 
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and end up chasinng if EM soar later like i read about them, it could very well be true, bacause EM has underperfoem the dow for a long time, may play catch up this yr, who knw?
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victortan
Elite
26-Apr-2014 13:12     
 
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sell in May, then when u buy back?

What if u have to buy back more expensive?

Octavia      ( Date: 26-Apr-2014 12:45) Posted:

Sell In May???



As readers will recall  of what equity performance this month was supposed to look like, at least based on historical data, April was supposed to be the best month of the year.



Sadly for the bulls, it has been anything but. That' s the good news. The bad news is that as most know the old saying " sell in May and go away" , there is nothing but pain for the next six months.

As FBN' s JC O' Hara explains, the &ldquo Sell in May&rdquo slogan heard around Wall Street has some truth behind it. The gist of the saying suggests it&rsquo s better to be out of the market come May and re-enter during the fall months.

We ran the numbers over the last 20 years and found validity to the statement. We created a model that went long the market Jan, Feb, March, April, Oct, Nov & Dec. as well as a second model that went long the market May through Sept 30. We concluded that the May &ndash Sept time period model, on average over the past 20 years, would have lost you money. The majority of the time the market was unimpressive over those summer months. The majority of the markets returns were housed in the first model that was long the months into May and the months after Sept. While there were instances where May &ndash Sept was negative, the risk adjusted returns suggests investors do not necessarily need to exit the market but should expect flat markets with little if any of the yearly gains coming during this time period. The real money was made during other 7 months of the year. As we approach May we are not in the SELL camp yet, but rather acknowledge the fact that a volatile, stagnant, sideways moving market is what history implies. Over the next few pages of this report we examine the past 20 years and highlight where the majority of returns are found.

Naturally, all of the above implies that rigged, centrally-planned markets are even remotely comparable to normal historical markets, and trade paterns. They aren' t. Still, for those who are curious what the infamous Sell in May phenomenon looks like, here it is:




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Octavia
Supreme
26-Apr-2014 12:45     
 
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Sell In May???



As readers will recall  of what equity performance this month was supposed to look like, at least based on historical data, April was supposed to be the best month of the year.



Sadly for the bulls, it has been anything but. That' s the good news. The bad news is that as most know the old saying " sell in May and go away" , there is nothing but pain for the next six months.

As FBN' s JC O' Hara explains, the &ldquo Sell in May&rdquo slogan heard around Wall Street has some truth behind it. The gist of the saying suggests it&rsquo s better to be out of the market come May and re-enter during the fall months.

We ran the numbers over the last 20 years and found validity to the statement. We created a model that went long the market Jan, Feb, March, April, Oct, Nov & Dec. as well as a second model that went long the market May through Sept 30. We concluded that the May &ndash Sept time period model, on average over the past 20 years, would have lost you money. The majority of the time the market was unimpressive over those summer months. The majority of the markets returns were housed in the first model that was long the months into May and the months after Sept. While there were instances where May &ndash Sept was negative, the risk adjusted returns suggests investors do not necessarily need to exit the market but should expect flat markets with little if any of the yearly gains coming during this time period. The real money was made during other 7 months of the year. As we approach May we are not in the SELL camp yet, but rather acknowledge the fact that a volatile, stagnant, sideways moving market is what history implies. Over the next few pages of this report we examine the past 20 years and highlight where the majority of returns are found.

Naturally, all of the above implies that rigged, centrally-planned markets are even remotely comparable to normal historical markets, and trade paterns. They aren' t. Still, for those who are curious what the infamous Sell in May phenomenon looks like, here it is:



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GorgeousOng
Supreme
26-Apr-2014 12:24     
 
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Yells: "Hehehaha...enjoy life n live to the fullest..."
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Expect the unexpected!!!

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JustGreat
Senior
26-Apr-2014 11:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		But I think the banks and property counters will drag down the index and they are quite heavy-weight in STI. And it also happened that STI has had quite a good run recently, so may take this chance to retreat. Broad market wise will have to be sector specific.

victortan      ( Date: 26-Apr-2014 10:58) Posted:



I bet to differ, sti will go up. buffer by our gd manufacturing data, If happen before , it will happen again on Monday.

But anyway , it will affect blue mostly if it did, but mid cap will still soar,

 

JustGreat      ( Date: 26-Apr-2014 07:40) Posted:

STI will likely open around -0.4% -0.5% on Monday.
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victortan
Elite
26-Apr-2014 10:58     
 
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I bet to differ, sti will go up. buffer by our gd manufacturing data, If happen before , it will happen again on Monday.

But anyway , it will affect blue mostly if it did, but mid cap will still soar,

 

JustGreat      ( Date: 26-Apr-2014 07:40) Posted:

STI will likely open around -0.4% -0.5% on Monday.
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JustGreat
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26-Apr-2014 07:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		STI will likely open around -0.4% -0.5% on Monday.
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teeth53
Supreme
26-Apr-2014 07:04     
 
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Short term - Eu may hav to pay more for gas bill....

3 risks from the Ukraine crisis

What happens next could have a big impact on Russia' s economy, energy exports and Europe.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/25/investing/russia-ukraine-risks/index.html?iid=Lead

victortan      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 22:54) Posted:



so Monday expect sti to head up. even though dow is red. we see that before.

WanSiTong      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 15:03) Posted:

Published April 25, 2014
 
Singapore factory output up 12.1% in March
 
Industrialoutptsg250414


SINGAPORE' S manufacturing sector expanded by a surprising 12.1 per cent in March compared to a year ago, thanks to double-digit jumps in transport engineering and biomedical output.


This came after February' s revised year-on-year pace of 13.1 per cent (previously estimated at 12.8 per cent).

The 18 economists polled by Bloomberg prior to the data release had a median growth forecast of 6.4 per cent.

Although the biomedical manufacturing cluster grew 16.4 per cent in March from a year ago - helped by a 19.4 per cent expansion in the pharmaceuticals segment - it was not the sole driver of growth.

Excluding biomedical manufacturing, the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB) said on Friday that industrial production would have increased 10.9 per cent.

Output of the transport engineering cluster surged 29.4 per cent, boosted by its marine & offshore engineering segment. EDB said the segment expanded 45.1 per cent, with " several rig building and ship building projects achieving milestone completion" last month.

All other clusters also expanded in March. Electronics production grew 8.7 per cent year-on-year, driven by a 14.1 per cent output increase in the semiconductors segment.

In sequential terms, manufacturing output outstripped the market' s expectations to climb 6.1 per cent from February, after seasonal adjustments. The 9 economists polled by Bloomberg had a median forecast of just 1.5 per cent month-on-month growth.

Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output rose 1.6 per cent month-on-month, EDB said.

 


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teeth53
Supreme
26-Apr-2014 07:01     
 
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AS Russia pull out of Apple n facebook, the Apple is doing something to pop up their shares using their own reserve$.

WanSiTong      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 06:14) Posted:



U.S. Stocks Rise as Technology Shares Rally With Apple

U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard& Poor&rsquo s 500 Index trading near a record, as technology companies rallied after Apple Inc. results topped estimates to offset a slump in phone shares.

Apple jumped 8.2 percent, the most in two years, after selling more iPhones than analysts predicted. Verizon Communications Inc. led declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and AT& T Inc. sank a second day, amid concerns that price competition is shifting wireless revenue. Qualcomm Inc. sank 3.5 percent as results fell short of forecasts. Zimmer Holdings Inc. surged 12 percent after it agreed to buy Biomet Inc. in a deal valued at $13.4 billion.

The S& P 500 rose 0.2 to 1,878.61 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged at 16,501.65. The Nasdaq 100 Index, which includes Apple (AAPL), climbed 1 percent. About 6.2 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 10 percent below the three-month average.

&ldquo The earnings were decent overnight, especially from the tech sector, but we&rsquo re facing the headwind of strong momentum the six days before yesterday,&rdquo Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Cincinnati-based Schaeffer&rsquo s Investment Research Inc., said in a phone interview. &ldquo We&rsquo re facing an overbought situation and a bit of profit-taking mid-day.&rdquo

U.S. stocks have repeatedly failed to climb from the S& P 500&rsquo s current level. The gauge earlier this week rose to within six points of the all-time high of 1,890.9 reached April 2. It fell 0.2 percent yesterday, snapping a six-day rally that was the longest since September, and trades at 17 times reported earnings, near its highest valuation in four years.

The Dow average fluctuated today, rising as much 0.2 percent and sinking 0.3 percent during the session, as investors weighed earnings from Caterpillar Inc., Verizon and 3M Co.

Broader gauges briefly turned lower earlier today amid reports of escalating violence in Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin warned the country against continuing its anti-separatist offensive after government troops killed five rebels and prompted Russia&rsquo s military to begin new drills on the two nations&rsquo border.

An agreement to disarm rebels signed last week in Geneva by Ukraine, Russia, the European Union and the U.S. is on the brink of collapse. President Barack Obama said today the U.S. and its allies have additional sanctions against Russia ready to go because Putin&rsquo s government has yet to abide by the accord.

Data from the Commerce Department today showed orders for durable goods such as cars and computers rose more than forecast in March, pointing to faster production that will help spur the economy. Separate data showed more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.

Of the 204 companies in the S& P 500 that have released earnings this season, 76 percent have exceeded analysts&rsquo profit estimates, while 53 percent have beaten sales projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Some 64 S& P 500 members report today making it the busiest of the period.

Analysts predict companies on the benchmark gauge will collectively report a 0.7 percent increase in first-quarter profit and a 2.6 percent increase in revenue.

&ldquo There&rsquo s no question earnings numbers were good, but there was some anticipation of it to a certain degree,&rdquo John Manley, who helps oversee about $233 billion as chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Funds Management in New York, said in a phone interview. &ldquo I still tend to think, at the end of the day, that we&rsquo re going to see earnings be the more important thing that drives the market.&rdquo

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a measure of stock volatility known as the VIX, rose 0.4 percent to 13.32 for a second day of gains.

Six of the 10 main S& P 500 groups retreated today, with phone stocks sinking 1.7 percent, adding to a 2.2 percent slide yesterday. Technology shares jumped 1.1 percent to pace gains.

 

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teeth53
Supreme
26-Apr-2014 06:56     
 
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This a good opportunities for G-20 and they  play a more important role in world economy...especially in regional bourses here.

teeth53 thot - The Alibaba effect will rub off into successful IPOs effect..in regional bourses here.

Russia' s richest man Usmanov sells Apple and Facebook to buy Alibaba....Russia biggest billionaire has bought shares in Chinese internet retailer Alibaba. The Russian  is selling his stakes in US tech giants Apple and Facebook.

Usmanov, 60, Founder of Russia iron ore Metalloinvest holding Co, has an estimated fortune of $18.6 billion as of March 2014 and is increasing his bet on China, while selling American assets.

Chinese companies account for about 70% to 80% of the portfolio of our foreign internet investments, Ivan Streshinskiy, head of Usmanov asset-management company USM Advisors LLC, told Bloomberg in an interview in Moscow.

In the last few mths., Usmanov sold stake in Apple bought for about $100m last year and prior to Apple sale, the Russian tycoon started a gradual sale of his 10% stake in Facebook bought in 2009.

Alibaba, the world 2nd biggest internet Co after Google Inc, is valued at about $200 bil, as Bloomberg cites. The Chinese on-line retailer posted surging sales in the 3-mths through Sept, marking fourth straight quarterly profit.

China safe harbor -- As Russia relations with the west sour over Crimea referendum and the crisis in Ukraine.

Metalloinvest holding would increase its presence in Chinese mkt. China is unlikely to impose any sanctions. So, will likely trade in rubles, yuan, Hong Kong or in Singapore $ dollars. Streshinskiy said.
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WanSiTong
Supreme
26-Apr-2014 06:30     
 
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Emerging Stocks Slump as G-7 Agrees to Act Against Russia
By Julia Leite and Natasha Doff Apr 26, 2014 4:52 AM GMT+0800
 
Emerging-market stocks fell to a month low as the Group of Seven nations agreed to act against Russia and Standard & Poor&rsquo s cut the country&rsquo s rating. The ruble sank as a surprise rate increase failed to prop up the currency.


The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.1 percent to 993.35, capping a second week of losses. The ruble extended this year&rsquo s plunge to 8.8 percent while the Micex Index slumped to the lowest level in six weeks amid concern that higher borrowing costs will hamper growth. Commodity producers including Vale SA (VALE5) and Petroleo Brasileiro SA led declines in Brazil&rsquo s Ibovespa and the real fell the most among 31 major currencies.

The G-7 is preparing new measures against Russia, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry accused the country of trying to impose its will at &ldquo the barrel of a gun.&rdquo Russia&rsquo s credit rating was reduced to the lowest investment grade at S& P, which said further downgrades are possible, while the central bank in Moscow unexpectedly increased its one-week auction rate to 7.5 percent.

&ldquo The overriding theme is Russia,&rdquo Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based portfolio manager for Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees more than $150 billion, said in a phone interview. &ldquo There&rsquo s fear of an acceleration of hostility that will impact economic trade. It casts a huge net of uncertainty and the market&rsquo s reflex is to run toward safety.&rdquo

The Micex extended this week&rsquo s slide to 5.6 percent in Moscow as OAO Magnit, Russia&rsquo s largest retailer, tumbled 4.2 percent. The ruble weakened 0.8 percent against the dollar.

Military Exercises



Discussions by the G-7 accelerated after Russia renewed military exercises on Ukraine&rsquo s border. The European Union is preparing to impose sanctions against an additional 15 Russians in positions of power after the weekend, a diplomat said.

Today&rsquo s interest-rate decision by Russia&rsquo s central bank came as a surprise after 22 of 23 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast no change.

&ldquo What we&rsquo re seeing now is a pretty permanent exodus from Russia and it will be very difficult for the central bank to fight it, because a consequence of this is a further drop in economic activity,&rdquo Lars Christensen, chief emerging-market analyst at Danske Bank Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by phone. &ldquo They frankly seem quite desperate in their actions.&rdquo

Brazil&rsquo s Ibovespa posted its first weekly decline since mid-March as Vale, the largest iron-ore producer, sank 2.3 percent. Oil company Petrobras snapped a two-day rally. The real dropped 1.3 percent as the central bank refrained from calling an auction to roll over foreign-exchange swaps, adding to speculation that it&rsquo s easing support for the currency.

China&rsquo s stocks fell, sending the benchmark index to its steepest weekly loss in three months, after the nation&rsquo s biggest liquor maker reported slowing profit growth and concern grew that new share sales will divert funds. The yuan slipped for a sixth day to the lowest level since October 2012.

 
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WanSiTong
Supreme
26-Apr-2014 06:28     
 
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Stocks end week in red as tech gets hammered

Nasdaq wtd

Click the chart for more markets data.

Investors just couldn' t keep that loving feeling going at the end of the week, and techs bore the brunt of the cooling off.



The Nasdaq dropped 1.75%, while the Dow fell 140 points and the S& P 500 also ended lower. The sell-off came as investors questioned whether key companies like Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) are growing at the pace Wall Street likes to see. There were also renewed concerns about turmoil in Ukraine.

The major indexes gave up gains from earlier in the week and ended the week with losses. It was the eighth straight week that the S& P 500 alternated between weekly gains and losses, according to Ryan Detrick, a strategist at Schaeffer' s Investment Research. Call it the " Spring Swivel" .

The latest reading on CNNMoney' s Fear & Greed index shows sentiment is still languishing in " fear" mode.

In geopolitical news, senior government officials told CNN that the U.S. could impose new sanctions on Russia for failing to take steps to reduce the tension in eastern Ukraine. Sanctions would target key allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin, high-profile oligarchs and possibly companies.

Even without additional sanctions, Russia is struggling economically. Standard & Poor' s downgraded Russia' s credit rating to one step above junk status, and the country was forced to raise its interest rate from 7 to 7.5% since its currency is dropping sharply. This was the second increase in two months.

Related: 3 risks from the Ukraine crisis

European indexes finished mostly lower, with Germany' s DAX falling 1.5%. Germany is Russia' s largest trading partner in Europe. New sanctions would hurt both economies.

Most major Asian markets finished the day down as well.

 
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