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COMFORT DELGRO - MOVING FORWARD
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Conman
Elite |
06-Sep-2022 17:55
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Because there are still FOMO uncles willing to buy high (1.38), BBs created a buy queue for them to join in while BBs discreetly sold to them in small quantities (so as not to cause the buy queue to collapse) the whole day.
I didnt have the time to monitor but if you see people pulling out of the queue and then rejoining to queue behind then we know they are selling not buying. BBs of course want to sell high. And because they know many uncles are queuing at 1.30 to 1.36, price will not drop as long as there are uncles willing to buy high. |
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Joelton
Supreme |
06-Sep-2022 09:25
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Emperador&rsquo s inclusion in the STI makes the benchmark index even more international
THE displacement of ComfortDelGro : C52 0% from the Straits Times Index (STI) by Philippines-based liquor giant Emperador : EMI +0.98% marks another step towards internationalisation for the market barometer.
The change was somewhat expected, having been flagged as early as April this year by analyst Brian Freitas of Periscope Analytics, who publishes on Smartkarma.
Emperador&rsquo s inclusion also fits within a broader trend of large international companies displacing local names on the blue chip index in recent years.
In 2016, offshore and marine group Sembcorp Marine : S51 0% was dropped in favour of conglomerate Jardine Matheson Holdings : J36 -1.24%. A year later, aerospace engineering specialist SIA Engineering : S59 -0.82% was replaced by now-delisted conglomerate Jardine Strategic Holdings.
The two Jardines had previously been part of the STI, but were dropped in 2015 due to liquidity requirements.
DFI Retail Group : D01 -1.48%, a grocery store operator that is also part of the Jardine Group, replaced StarHub : CC3 0% on the STI in 2018.
Apart from the Hong Kong-headquartered Jardines &ndash which are primary listed in London &ndash the STI also includes Thailand&rsquo s Thai Beverage : Y92 -0.79% and Chinese shipbuilder Yangzijiang Shipbuilding : BS6 0%, which is incorporated in Singapore
With Emperador joining the index later this month, the STI now adds exposure to a large Philippines company. This also means that 20 per cent of the STI constituents hail from beyond Singapore&rsquo s shores.
Is the sizable proportion of foreign constituents on Singapore&rsquo s capital markets barometer a good thing? What are the implications for those who want to use the index for exposure to the performance of the local economy?
An international exchange
It isn&rsquo t surprising for the STI to have such broad foreign representation among its constituents, given that SGX has pitched itself as &ldquo Asia&rsquo s most international exchange&rdquo .
The bourse operator&rsquo s website also shows that around 40 per cent of the companies listed on the exchange come from overseas.
Under the STI ground rules, a security that is listed on the SGX Mainboard will be considered Singaporean in nationality and therefore eligible for the STI (subject to conforming to all other eligibility criteria).
With that context in mind, it would make sense for the STI &ndash being a market barometer, rather than an economic barometer &ndash to reflect the nature and composition of the local market.
The international counters &ndash despite making up a fifth of the constituents &ndash do not actually take up that much of the weightage in the STI, which is market capitalisation-weighted and adjusted for free float.
Based on Bloomberg data, the existing foreign STI counters have an index weight of around 9.8 per cent. CGS-CIMB analysts estimated that Emperador could have an index weight of 0.39 per cent upon its inclusion. The overall exposure to foreign constituents would thus be around 10 per cent.
This is less than the index weight of each of the 3 local banks, DBS, UOB and OCBC, which range between 11.6 and 19.4 per cent.
Meanwhile, real estate investment trust (Reits), which have been also favoured by local investors, also make up a relatively sizable chunk of the index, at 7 of the 30 component counters. These companies collectively make up for around 13.3 per cent of the index weight, Bloomberg data showed.
Other local large caps, such as Singtel, Keppel Corp, Wilmar International, and CapitaLand Investment also remain on the index.
Investors wanting exclusive exposure to Singapore companies may prefer exposure to the MSCI Singapore Free Index instead. The MSCI Singapore &ndash which is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the Singapore market &ndash uses a methodology that takes into account a stock&rsquo s country of incorporation and primary listing to determine stocks for inclusion in the country index.
This has resulted in divergence from the STI in certain areas.
For one, none of the secondary-listed or foreign-incorporated STI counters are included on the MSCI Singapore. Meanwhile, US-listed Singapore counters such as Grab and Sea are on that index.
Both indices still have a high degree of overlap, with more than 80 per cent of the index weights in each index made up of the same companies.
It is also worth noting that all the local counters dropped from the STI in recent years aren&rsquo t members of the MSCI Singapore either.
ComfortDelGro was dropped from the MSCI Singapore in 2020, along with Sats, Sembcorp Industries and Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), while StarHub was also deleted from that index in 2018.
Survival of the largest
It is apparent that the companies deleted from the STI in favour of large foreign counters in recent years have underperformed in terms of share price and, as a result, market capitalisation.
ComfortDelGro&rsquo s share price, for instance, has slipped 14.3 per cent in the past year, underperforming the 3.8 per cent gain in the STI.
SIA Engineering and StarHub shares have also significantly underperformed the STI over the past 5 years, falling 30.7 and 53.6 per cent, respectively, against the 2.2 per cent decline in the index.
Likewise, Sembcorp Marine&rsquo s current share price and market capitalisation pale in comparison with when it was an index stock.
Index methodology, naturally, plays a determining role in which companies are included and deleted from various indices, which may not always be within a company&rsquo s control.
While there may be merit in indices evolving to track a wider portion of the local equity market, it is also clear that companies need to battle to grow and deliver returns amid stiff competition for investor attention and dollars.
The largest company in the STI reserve list, Olam Group : VC2 -0.69%, already had a market capitalisation of S$5.7 billion as at Aug 22, ranking it 25th among eligible securities. If it rises to 20th spot sometime down the road, it would become a part of the STI.
Meanwhile, the smallest STI counters &ndash such as Keppel DC Reit : AJBU -1.05%, which is also the worst index performer in the year-to-date &ndash would need to find ways to not slip further. Otherwise, there is the risk of their market capitalisation falling below the 40th position and being booted out from the index.
Membership on the STI or any index is not a given, and companies would need to constantly work hard to grow and outshine the competition to retain their place and stay on the radar of investors.
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josephyeo
Elite |
05-Sep-2022 20:04
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Share buy back - 82500 shares at 1.37. Total paid - 113,170.5
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Conman
Elite |
05-Sep-2022 17:56
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Thos morning BB tested the demand for 1.39 and the result was none. So it dumped 1.38 at his own buy queue where some FOMO uncles were queuing behind. Closing match again was used to screw those who were trying their luck to buy 'cheap'.
Hence 1.38 is a sell. 1.37 will break when demand at 1.38 dries up. Please DYDD |
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beetlejuice
Master |
05-Sep-2022 10:25
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Yes, will buy at desired price.
Then collect dividends while waiting.
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josephyeo
Elite |
05-Sep-2022 10:19
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Price history. 5 year: high - 2.81 done on 9 July 2019 low - 1.31 done on 2020 52 weeks: high - 1.62 done on 8 nov 2022 low - 1.32 done on 10 Jan 2022 |
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beetlejuice
Master |
05-Sep-2022 10:05
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Thanks for sharing.
I will monitor price around 19 Sept.
Will buy if Comfort knee jerk towards mid $1.30.
Price may go lower than covid low BUT business prospect is definitely improving.
So short term price wiggle wiggle shouldn't affect the patient investors.
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josephyeo
Elite |
05-Sep-2022 09:40
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I am on queue at 1.36 n1.37. My investment decisions are very simple. I ask the following questions: 1. is the revenue improving? 2. is the profit improving? 3. Is the dividend good? I mean 3% or more 4. would revenue n profit get better going forward? 5. valuation ... acceptable? If answer to above questions are positive, i will put my money there. Different people have different styles in investing. Wise to stick to your own style. Over thinking n over analysing will lead to paralysis. Just sharing my thoughts and feelings. |
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Conman
Elite |
05-Sep-2022 08:25
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Please check which big fund is vested in this Zoom Bee even when it is a STI stock...
It is a target to punt, not one to invest.
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petson
Master |
05-Sep-2022 08:05
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tink drop out of index, some big funds cannot hold right? | ||||
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pasttime
Supreme |
05-Sep-2022 05:19
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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very likely to go down until it found a bottom. that will be a few months from now as the big holders sell out slowly. don' t go down also cannot go up much. fundamentally it is improving with the covid-19 open up to almost no restrictions. short term supply and demand of shares rule. no point for the company to do any buy back. just let it be then do buy back after bottom out better. |
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Conman
Elite |
05-Sep-2022 00:16
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Because unless it is a cash buy out, no one can rig the real market. The share price is what the market think it is worth. Even a super BB come to pump, he will have to dump at a certain price and the evential price at the end will be the real price.
I can bet you no one will buy this business. SMRT Taxis wanted to sell but no one was interested because taxis cannot be sold with the drivers, who are self-employed personnel. There are 4 other taxi companies and 4 PHV companies welcoming any uncles with the taxi licence to join them, anyrime. Want to buy SBS Transit? It is only a contractor doing only gov contract and has no bus, no trains, no depot, no rail Everything can be taken back by the gov overnight if it is not careful. Even as it is now, which big funds or how many of them are vested big in it? Why? Does this explain why its listing in Sustralia was blocked, and until now we have not been told WHY?
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jackass
Member |
04-Sep-2022 18:31
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I am not quite sure why ComfortDelgro did not conduct share buyback to ensure that it will not be kicked out of STI index ... Unless of course, everything is determined at the top level management to eventually privatise ComfortDelgro at a cheap price Retailers 一 路 好 走
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Conman
Elite |
04-Sep-2022 18:02
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Guru this is scary.
More scary is Black Rock's holdings. Do you think they will sell or continue to hold this Zoom Bee, and why?
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jpts66
Member |
04-Sep-2022 16:25
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Knowing price will likely come down in coming 2 weeks, retailer investors may unload too. I have unloaded 120 lots last Fri. May buy again after 19 Sep.
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Entropy72
Master |
04-Sep-2022 14:39
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Source: https://sg.news.yahoo.com/dbs-keeps-buy-comfortdelgro-even-052159286.html " The total holdings of CDG from the two main STI ETFs, SPDR STI ETF and NikkoAM STI ETF currently stands at $33 million." $33m is equivalent to 23,000 lots @ $1.40. The funds will progressively sell this quantity of CDG shares since last week announcement and build up Emperador - they won' t do all this on a single day. Opportunity to buy CDG cheap. |
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Entropy72
Master |
04-Sep-2022 14:28
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Once XJP secures his 3rd term on 16 Oct, China will commence to open up and lift lockdown measures. Expect a boom of Chinese tourists to South East Asia. --------- HONG KONG -- When Mandy Cheng heard that Hong Kong was cutting its unpopular hotel quarantine to just three days, she scrambled to buy tickets for her first trip outside the financial hub in over two years. The new college graduate is among scores of travel-hungry residents desperate to jump on a flight after being marooned in Hong Kong since 2020 owing to some of the world' s strictest COVID curbs -- including a now-scrapped three-week quarantine for anyone returning to the city from abroad. " I had always wanted to travel but didn' t want to quarantine too long," said the 21-year-old Cheng, who is starting a new job once she returns from her planned trip to South Korea. " It got more attractive when it was cut to three days." For most of the pandemic, a place billed as Asia' s World City was effectively shut off from the world by harsh travel restrictions, including temporary flight bans from nine countries that shrank movement in and out of Hong Kong to a trickle. The city was one of the busiest flight hubs internationally before the pandemic with tens of millions passing through its main airport annually. Nearly 56 million people visited the territory in 2019. Hong Kong' s hotel quarantine -- which has been cut in recent months after a COVID-19 surge earlier this year -- has been regularly criticized over its high costs and challenges in securing rooms. Industry groups complained that it effectively stopped business travel. Last month, Hong Kong announced that the much-loathed quarantine would be cut to just three days, with four days of self-isolation and restrictions on visiting certain venues. While most places outside mainland China have ditched quarantines and other curbs altogether, Hong Kong' s easing has stoked a surge in demand for flights and travel bookings.  Hong Kong' s flagship carrier Cathay Pacific saw passenger numbers drop to just 2% of available capacity during the pandemic. © Reuters
There has been a marked rise in passenger and other flights after Hong Kong' s flagship carrier Cathay Pacific saw passenger movement shrink to just 2% of capacity during the health crisis. The airline is now hiring more than 4,000 front-line employees over the next two years as travel demand rebounds. Flights departing Hong Kong are expected to top 2,600 by October, twice that of July before the latest easing of COVID curbs was announced, according to aviation data provider Cirium. Local tour agency Sunflower Travel has seen a surge of interest from Hong Kongers, though traffic remains well below pre-pandemic levels. " Since the government announced [shorter quarantines], inquiries about overseas travel packages have grown significantly," said Moon Yau, Sunflower' s assistant general manager. " Most of them are interested in going to Southeast Asian countries in September, and some have already made bookings." 
Across Southeast Asia, hotel and travel operators are offering deep discounts and other incentives to bring back tourists. Some of Hong Kong' s pandemic-weary travelers are even treating the shortened quarantine as part of their vacation. " It' s like a bonus ' staycation' that they can add to the end of their trip," Yau said. " People are asking and preparing [to travel], but the biggest concern is restrictions. There' s still a chance that you could test positive after the trip and not be able to come back." The rule changes are also prompting Hong Kong residents stranded abroad to return, even though quarantine hotel bookings have fallen overall, according to Girish Jhunjhnuwala, executive chairman of boutique hotel Ovolo Group. " People will make bookings closer to a time or when they' re returning to Hong Kong," he said. Local media have reported that Hong Kong might scrap its quarantine by November as the city gears up for a banking summit and the Hong Kong Sevens rugby tournament, which is set to kick off after years of pandemic-linked delays. And the city' s international airport has just held a trial run to prepare for a passenger surge, boosting speculation that more openings were around the corner. Clara Chan and her husband, who used to travel outside Hong Kong five or six times a year, say they are going to tough it out until the city is quarantine-free. But Chan has a bundle of yen saved up for a trip to Japan as soon as it happens. " We are not too worried about the ticket prices since it is very cheap to go to Japan now," she said. " For people like us, it' s so painful not to travel." Additional reporting by Pak Yiu and Grace Li |
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Conman
Elite |
04-Sep-2022 11:56
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From now till then, the fund or investment bank BBs who used to punt with their investors' money might continue to play while looking for exit at the best price. After the D day they will have problem justifying to their investors why they would want to 'invest' in this non-STI, traditional, labour intensive, sun-setting stock which has neen on a big down trend because of the culling by technology.
These BBs and the smaller BBs might continue to punt this counter after the date though, and I am quite sure about even if this counter drops to 20 or 5 cents eventually 🤣 🤣 🤣
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PiRPiR
Master |
04-Sep-2022 09:31
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Monday 19th September, if I can quote Emperador's comminique
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Conman
Elite |
04-Sep-2022 08:48
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I fine TANPK. So far never kena Covid. All in my family never kena too. So unbelieveable! 🙂
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