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EAGLE Hosp Reit US$ @$0.780 cents Post Reply Rate topic
onegun Member	03-Nov-2019 21:13        onegun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	we think alike, especially the 50%. but I think I read somewhere that EHT already paid the 6 hotels, but this may be something shown on the table, nobody knows if there is  any secrete deals
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uk1234 Member	03-Nov-2019 20:36        uk1234 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	:) the plot thickens , for the Yuans :) So the story looks like this (my theory): the Yuans sold 6 hotels at double the price to EHT (from 1xxm to 2xxm), but EHT " forced" them to subscribe the IPO for 2xxm.  Effectively Yuans get paid in EHT shares for the 6 hotels.  EHT didn' t really pay anything, but get a high " book" value so can artificailly inflate the IPO price.  No wonder Yuans are selling like no tomorrow: whatever cash they can get from the shares, are the actual cash proceeds for their hotels.  So their floor is 50%, 39c.  Yuans are not the sponsor neither the manager, they have no interest in the reit. They just want to get the cash.  The pice collapse not his problem.  Anything above 40c doable.  For the REIT price, valuation at 50% price to " book" start to look correct since book is inflated.  Give it another 20% discount for weak sponsor (hotel reit dun get 100% price to book, 80% to 90% only). Looks like the fair price floor is reaching. (Shame to Colliers and HVS who " value" them at whatever price UC asked) Guys, relax, it' s quite fun to watch this.  I' m vested at 55c for quite a big size and I' m not worried.  The hotels are real, revenues are real, and we are not far from fair value.  At 50c I will add some more.    (btw I read somewhere the other 12 hotels Yuans " advise" UC at the acquisition only, not UC buy from the Yuans.  Can someone with deeper info check this ? )
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raptor87 Member	03-Nov-2019 18:15        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Are the hotels in EHT' s portfolio doing poorly? Does not seem so from reviews in TripAdvisor.
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dcools Senior	03-Nov-2019 18:04        dcools About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	the picture will become clearer when 3q19 anouces on 13 Nov. raptor87      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 17:33) Posted: Refer to their first results release for the period  24 May - 30 June 2019. Was above forecasts. Income available for distribution was US$5.65m.  If you do a simple projection by annualising the income available for distribution, its should be US$33.73m [($5.65m/37 days) x 221 days for FY19]. Given about 868m shares outstanding, you get 7.7% (for period of May - Dec 2019) if you buy EHT at $0.525.  For full-year FY20, thats a forward yield of 12.6%. What this means is that if you bought at $0.656 (you have lost 20% of capital), and assuming EHT stays at $0.525, then you will make your investment back in distribution by end of FY20. Next, if you assume worse case scenario whereby Queen Mary gets totally written-off (I take 22% off income avail for distribution), its about 9.8% yield based on $0.525. (2 years to make back the capital loss) That' s the way I see it.    dcools      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 17:15) Posted: one question, can we trust the dpu projections provided by EHT now?
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cavdinsg Member	03-Nov-2019 17:49        cavdinsg About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, the difference between the price ASAP paid and the price EHT paid for the properties seem exaggerated but you can' t compare it apple to apple as ASAP have done significant renovation since their initial purchase. This is their business model, buy an undervalued property, renovate it to increase RevPAR and sell it at a much higher price. A REIT has a different business model as they can' t do much capital expenditures due to the 90% rule so it makes sense to buy assets that have already been renovated. But indeed this probably does not entirely justify the huge valuation gap between the price ASAP paid an dthe price EHT paid...
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raptor87 Member	03-Nov-2019 17:33        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Refer to their first results release for the period  24 May - 30 June 2019. Was above forecasts. Income available for distribution was US$5.65m.  If you do a simple projection by annualising the income available for distribution, its should be US$33.73m [($5.65m/37 days) x 221 days for FY19]. Given about 868m shares outstanding, you get 7.7% (for period of May - Dec 2019) if you buy EHT at $0.525.  For full-year FY20, thats a forward yield of 12.6%. What this means is that if you bought at $0.656 (you have lost 20% of capital), and assuming EHT stays at $0.525, then you will make your investment back in distribution by end of FY20. Next, if you assume worse case scenario whereby Queen Mary gets totally written-off (I take 22% off income avail for distribution), its about 9.8% yield based on $0.525. (2 years to make back the capital loss) That' s the way I see it.    dcools      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 17:15) Posted: one question, can we trust the dpu projections provided by EHT now?
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Goldfinger Supreme	03-Nov-2019 17:31        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yup anyway we are building a large stock and property portfolio for the sole next Gen - so our perspective is in the 50-60 year holding horizon. So short term industrial REITs are out for us. CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 17:09) Posted: Think must be careful if you are adding more positions. Seemed price drop hasn' t peaked.   Goldfinger      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 16:56) Posted: Recently - will buy more below 50 cents
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	03-Nov-2019 17:28        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Maybe more than 6 properties as  the " story" unfolds....... Hope this is not the case ! Hope they have a good set of results soon to boost up......    onegun      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 17:18) Posted: Compare to Queen Mary issue, I mostly dislike the double purchasing and unreasonable valuation of the 6 properties, it sounds like a scam
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onegun Member	03-Nov-2019 17:18        onegun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Compare to Queen Mary issue, I mostly dislike the double purchasing and unreasonable valuation of the 6 properties, it sounds like a scam
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onegun Member	03-Nov-2019 17:16        onegun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This is my first time lose so big to a reit. I lost confidence in sg stock. If gov cannot have the regulation and let ppl cheat money so easily, it is rather to save money in bank
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dcools Senior	03-Nov-2019 17:15        dcools About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	one question, can we trust the dpu projections provided by EHT now?
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onegun Member	03-Nov-2019 17:14        onegun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think the bottom is 0.3. Meaning I will lost 50%
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	03-Nov-2019 17:12        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If BB keeps reducing their stakes, price will go south further. Supply & demand thing.   CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 17:03) Posted: That' s a lot of $$$. Watch what the BB are doing next week or so. Good luck! onegun      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 16:56) Posted: After. My average is 0.66, I wasn't invest in ipo. I only joined when it seems quite stabilised around 0.7. Total 50k share. Sigh.
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chengwh1 Elite	03-Nov-2019 17:09        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hmm,... to protect the imvesting public, it is good that SGX recommends to the EHT mgr to invoke a Suspension of Trading from tomorrow morning. Let the dust settle first. Let all news be confirmed first.
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	03-Nov-2019 17:09        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Think must be careful if you are adding more positions. Seemed price drop hasn' t peaked.   Goldfinger      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 16:56) Posted: Recently - will buy more below 50 cents. CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 16:53) Posted: You bought during IPO or after?
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raptor87 Member	03-Nov-2019 17:08        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	So what exactly is the worry here? onegun      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 16:50) Posted: Well, honestly I know Queen Mary issue before edge article because I saw some related news on USA press. But at that time I did not sell because I feel it was just an investigation report which should not be any matter. I regret to be honest, but this ASAP stuff is totally new to me. If I know this kinds of deal between ASAP and EHT, I will not invest. Why sgx never vet before allow listing
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	03-Nov-2019 17:03        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That' s a lot of $$$. Watch what the BB are doing next week or so. Good luck! onegun      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 16:56) Posted: After. My average is 0.66, I wasn't invest in ipo. I only joined when it seems quite stabilised around 0.7. Total 50k share. Sigh.
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chengwh1 Elite	03-Nov-2019 17:02        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Okay - I admit I have not seen the prospectus to this level of detail. But from my experience in IPO' s, I can count like this. The Financial Year of EHT, I think, is from Jan 1st to Dec 31st., which it most probably is. EHT was listed on May 9th., 2019, hence, it' s nearest ' logical' FY-end date would be on Dec 31st, 2019.... and 90 Days from this date would be Mar 31st, 2020, being the last day that it has to payout distribution to its unitholders. Well,... why would the mgr here ask for distribution to be paid out beyond Mar 31st 2020 ? I stand corrected, though,... Goldfinger      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 16:37) Posted: I recall there were announcements that the first dividend would be paid after March 2020.  So, if you are correct - then it must be necessary to pay the first dividend after the first announcement.  Then, why should MAS approval be required for this? Still not sure so best to wait for this.  Perhaps this is for administration ease.  But, the company is in damage control mode, so probably they are trying all means to shore up confidence on its financial soundness. chengwh1      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 16:28) Posted: 1) Paying out dividends before 31 Mar - this is normal business-as-usual, right ? Listing Rules says a REIT must distribute its dividends within three months after the last day of the period being reported upon. They have not provided an estimated day of when they will paying out its first dividend, so, what' s so early abt that ? Eg,... let me recall,... say Netlink Trust announced last Friday that they will pay out their 1HFY20 dividend on 20 November. So, say, tomorrow,.. if Netlink decided to chg this date and then say will payout on 10 November - this would be EARLY. 2) Emm,.... taking the experience from First REIT and sponsor, OUE Healthcare REIT' s recent event, I believed an EGM must be convened when chg of dividend payout date is being sought after by the issuer. But again,... what chg are we talking abt here
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onegun Member	03-Nov-2019 16:56        onegun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	After. My average is 0.66, I wasn't invest in ipo. I only joined when it seems quite stabilised around 0.7. Total 50k share. Sigh.
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Goldfinger Supreme	03-Nov-2019 16:56        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Recently - will buy more below 50 cents. CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 03-Nov-2019 16:53) Posted: You bought during IPO or after?
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