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Latest Forum Topics / Alita Resources    Last:0.078 --  Post Reply
Alliance Mineral the next Blue Chip - TP 1.50
zillion
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30-May-2019 17:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Anyway to arbitrage between the Aussie listing at A$0.195 and the listing here at 0.186?
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risktaker
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22-May-2019 11:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		So from what i read alliance has the potential.... but will be losing money until end of year if everything goes smoothly....

Good luck... :)

risktaker      ( Date: 22-May-2019 11:12) Posted:


7seven7

191 Posts.

 91

 

21/05/19

 

06:49

 

Post #: 38660455

Worth a listen (released May 20th}, the most detailed interview I've seen in recent times with MC: https://m.soundcloud.com/lithiumionrocks/e12-a-new-star-alliance-is-born-a40-gxy-002176

Key points:
- No more CR anticipated going forward as the latest raise gets us to end Q4 where we need to be before increased margins and reduced capital spend. 
- 10 months of reserves/resource drilling underway at approx $700k/month in spend. 
- Hydroxide deal in final stages of negotiation. Should be binding in 30 days. Very supportive JV partner - they just threw us $10M! 
- Slow ramp up of the hydroxide plant expected as they usually take about a year to ramp up. Looking at 2,000t this year and looking at 15-20,000t next year depending on ramp up and recoveries. Multiply by 7 to get spod requirement. 
- Exploring downstream options in Australia outside of carbonate and hydroxide (early stages). Perhaps something more niche, pricing/economics/viability studies underway. 
- Currently getting US$750ish/t which is well above our competitors although a little less than we achieved in Q1. Costs looking around $550/t average this year and down towards $400/t average next year. Pricing should increase in Q4 with new pricing formula that is based on hydroxide cost and not just carbonate cost. 
- Costs this year to remain high as pre-strip activities continue. 
- Looking to refinance debt and in any case likely to pay it off in 2020.
- 240,000t run rate next year, ability to push the plant closer to 300,000t if demand is there. Plant is the lowest $capex/t expansion option in the world. 
- Bald Hill manages to get the best recovery from a DMS in the world. Interesting to see how it compares to the other plants once the fines circuit is complete. 
- Mark further stressed the quality of Bald Hill spod as the best in the world. 
- Seems to be open dialogue with GXY and happy to have them on board for the ride. Seen by MC as protection against a cheap TO. Increasing the resources for the project will likely make Bald Hill a TO target given it will be the only operating mine that's cheaply and quickly upgradable without the offtake already spoken for. 
- Currently negotiating offtake deals for the remaining this year and next years forward spod production capacity. Offtakers have expressed interest for more than what is available. No timeline on offtake deals given but not as urgent now and no longer stressed about pre-payments. 
- Comparing to our peers we are looking undervalued given our immediate potential to increase mine life to be in line with the other mines in WA. 

Overall, we're in good shape. This year the short term will continue to be rough from an operating margin perspective but with fines online in Q4, increased margins on the spod sales AND the hydroxide JV, we'll be looking at something in the order of US$300-450/t operating profit come Q1 2020. Do the math based on a run rate of 240,000-300,000t/year and you have yourself a nice business worth well north of the current ~$300M. Now top it off with a reserve that allows for a 20 year mine life... 

Will be adding on any near term SP weakness this year because it's unlikely there will be a chance to top up come Q4! 

"taken from hotcopper"
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risktaker
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22-May-2019 11:12     
 
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 Alert Admin
7seven7

191 Posts.

 91

 

21/05/19

 

06:49

 

Post #: 38660455

Worth a listen (released May 20th}, the most detailed interview I've seen in recent times with MC: https://m.soundcloud.com/lithiumionrocks/e12-a-new-star-alliance-is-born-a40-gxy-002176

Key points:
- No more CR anticipated going forward as the latest raise gets us to end Q4 where we need to be before increased margins and reduced capital spend. 
- 10 months of reserves/resource drilling underway at approx $700k/month in spend. 
- Hydroxide deal in final stages of negotiation. Should be binding in 30 days. Very supportive JV partner - they just threw us $10M! 
- Slow ramp up of the hydroxide plant expected as they usually take about a year to ramp up. Looking at 2,000t this year and looking at 15-20,000t next year depending on ramp up and recoveries. Multiply by 7 to get spod requirement. 
- Exploring downstream options in Australia outside of carbonate and hydroxide (early stages). Perhaps something more niche, pricing/economics/viability studies underway. 
- Currently getting US$750ish/t which is well above our competitors although a little less than we achieved in Q1. Costs looking around $550/t average this year and down towards $400/t average next year. Pricing should increase in Q4 with new pricing formula that is based on hydroxide cost and not just carbonate cost. 
- Costs this year to remain high as pre-strip activities continue. 
- Looking to refinance debt and in any case likely to pay it off in 2020.
- 240,000t run rate next year, ability to push the plant closer to 300,000t if demand is there. Plant is the lowest $capex/t expansion option in the world. 
- Bald Hill manages to get the best recovery from a DMS in the world. Interesting to see how it compares to the other plants once the fines circuit is complete. 
- Mark further stressed the quality of Bald Hill spod as the best in the world. 
- Seems to be open dialogue with GXY and happy to have them on board for the ride. Seen by MC as protection against a cheap TO. Increasing the resources for the project will likely make Bald Hill a TO target given it will be the only operating mine that's cheaply and quickly upgradable without the offtake already spoken for. 
- Currently negotiating offtake deals for the remaining this year and next years forward spod production capacity. Offtakers have expressed interest for more than what is available. No timeline on offtake deals given but not as urgent now and no longer stressed about pre-payments. 
- Comparing to our peers we are looking undervalued given our immediate potential to increase mine life to be in line with the other mines in WA. 

Overall, we're in good shape. This year the short term will continue to be rough from an operating margin perspective but with fines online in Q4, increased margins on the spod sales AND the hydroxide JV, we'll be looking at something in the order of US$300-450/t operating profit come Q1 2020. Do the math based on a run rate of 240,000-300,000t/year and you have yourself a nice business worth well north of the current ~$300M. Now top it off with a reserve that allows for a 20 year mine life... 

Will be adding on any near term SP weakness this year because it's unlikely there will be a chance to top up come Q4! 

"taken from hotcopper"
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eric998
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22-May-2019 10:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		BBs want to push up to above 20c today? 
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SmallSmall
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22-May-2019 10:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Do note ASX is trading at A$0.,225 and that Alliance is actually also producing rare earth mineral  Tantalum Concentrate (Tantalum Pentoxide Ta2O5) as a by product and that the rare earth stocks are on fire in SH and SZ.
For info. Not vested
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eric998
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22-May-2019 10:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		shortists come in already?
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risktaker
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21-May-2019 20:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If price is so good n cheap mark should snap up more shares....along with tribeca...

Till then... everything is hot air....

Atom99      ( Date: 21-May-2019 20:14) Posted:


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Atom99
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21-May-2019 20:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/li-bull-podcast-with-mc.4771912/page-2?post_id=38664703

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-a40-32-5m-strategic-institutional-placements.4765318/page-176?post_id=38678580

DYOR and DYODD


 
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Atom99
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21-May-2019 19:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://www.investor-one.com/editorial/6984-Alliance-Mineral-Assets-is-attractive-to-big-lithium-players-says-analyst
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risktaker
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21-May-2019 18:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Gxy cant even save itself.... lol
Gxy assets is sexy.... cash over 300m and it has various lithium project...worth over billion but....market cap =600m+

Alliance cash 30m and 1 project... market cap over 300m

Gxy is under attack by certain funds... :(

dyingcat      ( Date: 21-May-2019 12:45) Posted:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4265271-galaxy-resources-takes-strategic-stake-alliance-minerals-operator-bald-hill-lithium-mine
Will its stock price fly?
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dyingcat
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21-May-2019 12:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4265271-galaxy-resources-takes-strategic-stake-alliance-minerals-operator-bald-hill-lithium-mine
Will its stock price fly?
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eric998
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21-May-2019 10:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		who bought? i thought can shoot up to 195 to short.. 

eric998      ( Date: 21-May-2019 09:41) Posted:

get ready..
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eric998
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21-May-2019 09:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		get ready..
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risktaker
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19-May-2019 14:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Things changes as we speak..... anticipation and market reaction moment by moment....connecting the dots...

The hedge funds are shorting the lithium sector and making it difficult for lithium counters to rise funds.... u should already know by Now Our dear US president doesnt care about earth....

You can burn coal and emit green house gases and sea.level raise or global temperature warming up.... he say its a hoax....

Its sad isnt it... we need captain planet :)



Dunoanyti      ( Date: 17-May-2019 12:52) Posted:

I thought someone say TP$1.5???
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risktaker
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18-May-2019 06:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		With trump around....he doesnt care about global warming....its tough not to go south next few weeks....

Alvin2042      ( Date: 17-May-2019 19:32) Posted:

I turn bullish with your recommendation

risktaker      ( Date: 17-May-2019 11:38) Posted:

Placement @ 20 AuD = 19c

With dilution and loss making....very likely it will go under 19c ..

My target 15c :)
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Alvin2042
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17-May-2019 19:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I turn bullish with your recommendation

risktaker      ( Date: 17-May-2019 11:38) Posted:

Placement @ 20 AuD = 19c

With dilution and loss making....very likely it will go under 19c ..

My target 15c :)
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eric998
Supreme
17-May-2019 16:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		today shortists day again.. HUAT!!

Dunoanyti      ( Date: 17-May-2019 12:52) Posted:

I thought someone say TP$1.5???
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Dunoanyti
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17-May-2019 12:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I thought someone say TP$1.5???
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bicycle
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17-May-2019 11:51     
 
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 Alert Admin

BUZZ &ndash Livent shares hits record low on weak FY forecast

08 May

(Updates)

  • * Shares of Livent Corp fall as much as 27% to $7.85 and are currently trading at a record low
  • * Co cuts 2019 FY profit, revenue forecasts due to lower demand for lithium hydroxide from some customers, weaker prices
  • * Expects 2019 adj. EPS of 56 cents to 66 cents, compared with its Feb. estimate of 92 cents to 98 cents
  • * Livent says it does not expect to see a meaningful change in demand for high-performance lithium hydroxide until late 2019 or early 2020...
  • * Sees 2019 revenue of $435 mln to $475 mln, compared with its prior forecast of $495 mln to $525 mln
  • * Peer Albemarle Corp down 4.2%
  • * Including Wednesday' s losses, LTHM shares down ~40% this year

(Reporting By Arundhati Sarkar in Bengaluru) ((Reuters Messaging: [email protected])

Copyright 2019 Thomson Reuters.Click for restrictions.

My recomendation is to buy Albermarle Corp (near 52 wk low now) US$69.40. Its world No.1 lithium producer, its profitabe, it pays dividend. It has long term contract locked in as well.
 
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risktaker
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17-May-2019 11:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Placement @ 20 AuD = 19c

With dilution and loss making....very likely it will go under 19c ..

My target 15c :)
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