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F & N
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F&N
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luminol
Senior |
30-Dec-2013 09:13
Yells: "Correlation does not imply causation." |
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Yup... synergistic effect propel to 70c, not 60c ^^
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danytan
Master |
30-Dec-2013 09:06
Yells: "Up up and away!" |
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Presumably our focus is on closing price? | ||||
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
30-Dec-2013 08:42
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 See the MD now............ |
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i_love_girls
Veteran |
30-Dec-2013 08:35
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Metal Trader is gonna to win. Speculated total price will be $8. | ||||
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nea03177
Senior |
30-Dec-2013 07:56
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Smart people ask smart questions. The questions we ask will reflect that. THBEV going to exchange their FCL with TCC later on if what is revealed in their statement in FCL brochure. Hope synergy push your THBEV to more than 60 cents! Okie?
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luminol
Senior |
30-Dec-2013 07:48
Yells: "Correlation does not imply causation." |
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Menopause grandmother = F& N, Daughter = Thbev, Daughter's baby = Chang beer? HAHAHAHA... I'm confused. Yea more Chang beer for the New year. Huat ar~~
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nea03177
Senior |
30-Dec-2013 07:34
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Why after 2 Jan 2014? Any significance? Toto grand prize coming!
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nea03177
Senior |
30-Dec-2013 07:15
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Image that came to mind-menopause grandmother is surrogate mother to daughter's baby. So, even menopause can give birth. More children or grandchildren to come????
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luminol
Senior |
30-Dec-2013 02:31
Yells: "Correlation does not imply causation." |
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Yes, yes... Why let mother goose go if she still can produce eggs. Ordinary eggs also can. Unless she menopause.
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MetalTrader
Master |
30-Dec-2013 00:56
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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This is a friendly bet on 30/12/2013, i won't hold grudge with Wang Si Tong. He is a nice guy.
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bigsmall
Member |
30-Dec-2013 00:20
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wan si tong should bet after 2nd Jan 2014.
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MetalTrader
Master |
30-Dec-2013 00:02
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Updated of a clearer & shorter version F& N prediction of Event Unfolding before it happens: 11 Nov- F& N closed at $5.77. I forecasted that market default doesn't affect anything. As more bondholders resist, the more attractive F& N stock appears to shareholders. Because of the switch acquisition by Charoen, he unlocked the profitability in the F & N and distributed to all shareholders. [At this point, a lot people feared if F& N will default?] 14 Nov- I reemphasized that I can't find a better person than Charoen. Profits are shared. Look at VardHolding, & its a different case. After acquisition, no dividend. 16 Nov- I debated with Teeth53 & provided valuable information. One of the biggest shareholder, Charoen, is just restructuring its debts due to paid at $9.50 at the price when buying F & N shares. The issuance of 2 FCL shares per F& N share, is to increase Charoen value & thereby also increasing shareholders value.Bondholders resistance will be little of significant as 100% of all shareholders passed meeting of issuing 2 FCL per F& N share. (2 Days Later from my 11 Nov Prediction) Do you think 2 FCL + 1 F& N share will be less or more than current price? (I give hints but nobody took it seriously) Despite several persistence by Teeth53, I reanswered: The market only holds % lower than biggest shareholders. Majority% still lies in biggest shareholders. If vested players, consist of minor shareholding % battling out, while future value being unlocked is imminent. Who will benefit most? Teeth53 argued on the debt restricting, I answered: Debt restructure is the debt F& N boss loaned to buy. The basic structure of beverage, property, printing remains intact and is profitable. The bone you talking about is the spliting of FCL, while the meat remains intact (FCL & Beverage + Printing) at shareholders hands. As FCL + F& N still belongs to shareholders. It only undermine bondholders. Overall, value unlocked means profitability to F& N boss and Shareholders. Teeth53 questioned another volatile in play?, I answered: The market will not be a deciding factor. The F& N boss's decision will. The value of F& N is going to be unlocked, and the future prospect will depend on how majority of F& N biggest boss and majority of FCL biggest boss manage their business. F& N will probably try restructure bondholders by paying them $$$ and discontinue loan (Prediction before happen), thus reducing company loans. In share, majority of shareholders have biggest say but not bondholders. Teeth53 reargued that " ThaiBev (Y92.SG) and TCC Assets, with a combined 90.3% (F& N stake), have until July 19 to restore the free float." I answered: Because the Combined % from largest amounted to 90.3%, the biggest beneficial will be ThaiBev and TCC Assets. The next will be remaining 9.7% of market will still benefit. Strategic review is meant for future operating, and Unlocking value likely to happen in near-term.(Accurately predict Unlocking Value before it happen) Teeth53 reargued that Myanmar military issue & Disposal of APB issue, I reanswered: If NAV is $8.80, why do largest shareholder buy at $9.50? If largest shareholder do not have confident business in F& N's benefits will cover $9.50, he wouldn't be buying. So at even the current price of $5.80, you are still buying lesser than the largest shareholder. (Accurately predict F& N rising Value before it happen) If largest shareholder have nothing to fear, why should minor shareholder fear? The theory is simple, the largest shareholder combined percentage hit 90%. Do you think the remaining 10% will affect the outcome? The profitability depends on largest shareholder's decision, and it will be imminent unlocking of value 2 FCL begins before public buying take place. (Accurately predict when F& N buying take place before it happen) 17 Nov- I reemphasized that: This battle is not player vs player, as merely 10%. Its a battle Combined 2 Shareholders (90%) taking steps to improve their value, & unlocking further potential to benefit them (they are biggest beneficial), thereby also benefiting the small shareholders (10%) BondHolders are merely lending money, Shareholders got enough fund from retained earning to give them back. If you are not aware, Cash Earning is almost 1 billion a year. For 2014 dividend of 0.12, approximately 2 billion had been for forkout from retained earning to distribute to shareholder. Teeth, as you refused the truth that giving of 2FCL, but it will be imminent. (Accurately predict 2FCL issuing will be imminent before it happens) Mr. Charoen intends to reduce his stake to a range to 88%, from 90.3% currently. (Accurately predict reduction Charoen will reduce stake to 88%) To comply with SGX rule for listing FCL in which 12% must be obtained in the hands of public. So situation now is Public: 9.7% Buyer-Charoen sold to: 2.3% Mr Charoen: 88% http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304799404579152810197413736 Fraser and Neave is looking to buy back or redeem S$808.25 million worth of bonds. (Event of BondBuying intention was announced which was predicted previously) http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/f-n-bondholders-face/884288.html The consent exercise for F& N bondholders ends on Tuesday, and there are six bonds the company wants to redeem. If bondholders fail to approve the spin-off and the company proceeds with it, this would trigger a technical default and allow creditors to demand immediate repayment of the bonds at par value. The situation is also complicated as there are six different tranches of bonds at stake My Opinion: BondHolder issue can be resolved by $$$. (I firmly hold my prediction) Whether or not BondHolder approve, F& N can proceed by redeeming back the bonds by payment back immediately. BondHolder can delay the listing of 2 FCL, but cannot impact the outcome. (I predicted the future) Ultimately, if bondholders disagree. BondHolder can sue, but F& N can buy back bonds at par value. In the end, it won't do BondHolder good, as interest is missed out. Currently, the stock of F& N is precious as only 9.7% is owned by public. This determines only small % of people will benefit from this spinoff, however it is not impossible for those who have position in F& N. (I predicted who will benefits from F& N spinoff) My prediction is that those who buy F& N, will gain sustain benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins. 1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value is certainly to be more than $6. (I predicted the future value) FYI: $6 is only a minimum line. I already have the value of 1 F& N + 2 FCL in mind. I will not speak off, as it up to different people holding 1 F& N & 2 FCL to decide, at what time is best and most appropriate to sell. It can stretch way further than $6, depends on how you strategize these 3 stocks @ what time. Kindly note all my information is used as reference, & not to be used in anybody buy or sell. He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public. Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm. (I give assurance before announcement was made on 12 Dec) 18 Nov- There is one other point worth noting: The revelation by F& N chairman Lee Hsien Yang, together with board members Timothy Chia, Tan Chong Meng and Nicky Tan, that they plan to hold onto their shares unless Charoen?s offer turns unconditional. All these suggest that even at S$8.88 a share, there may still be value to be unlocked in F& N shares. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/More-value-to-be-unlocked-in-F& N-shares-30192217.html 1 Dec- FYI: 100%-12%= 88% (Maximum he can hold) His total state 90.3% to 88% (Difference 2.3%) He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public. Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm. (I re-give assurance before announcement was made on 12 Dec) Out of 5 bondholders, only 2 bondholders opposed. On 29 Nov, a re-meeting is scheduled & F& N fully paid the 2 bondholders with interests. So now, bond issue are resolved on 29 Nov.(Prediction of Future Event Actualized) 4 Dec- i foresee huge room for F& N share price to grow..(Prediction of Future Share Price Growth) - The 2 FCL waiting to be released - The 2014 dividend waiting to be released - Hospital Trusts waiting to be released The decision of biggest shareholders will be a key to F& N share price. 6 Dec- Hospital Trust would be in 2014 onward, as details haven't been covered by largest shareholder yet. This will most likely add value to the earnings of F& N. If to give to shareholder, it is up to largest shareholder's decision. 11 Dec- F& N destiny depends on biggest shareholder decision. Unlocking of 2 FCL should be expedited to serve shareholders well. (Prediction of 2FCL to be expedited before it happen for best value) 12 Dec- The biggest shareholder, CHAROEN, had finally reduced total share to 87.93%, allowing 12% public float for the listing of 2 FCL. It is wise that 2 FCL be as fast as possible to implement to create the best, & highest profit valuation of F& N + 2 FCL. It is best to be implemented within 1 week from today.(Prediction of best valuation but largest shareholder was a bit later) 14 Dec- It is best the largest shareholder announce the implementation 2 FCL swiftly. Any delay will affect the overall valuation & Any swift implementation will bring the overall valuation to the best valuation. 18 Dec- F& N overall valuation continues to lie in the hands of largest shareholder. There is hesitation as well as a need to implement release of 2 FCL- Duration of implementation will affect overall valuation. There is a possible trend of slowly recovering F& N price. I continue to maintain my forecast of the value of 1 F& N + 2 FCL = $6/ Higher. Thus, F& N price remains a fairly attractive price. Among all the big cap stocks, F& N remains well positioned in market & is fairly solid with future potential value untapped. 24 Dec- It will be actualized soon. $6 is minimum as predicted, while the maximum is unknown. As forecasted, & its potential is waiting to be shown. F& N remains the best among all big cap stocks. Market closed at $5.97 My prediction (17 Nov)- Those who buy F& N, will gain sustain benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins. 1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value is certainly to be more than $6. 26 Dec Closing- F& N closed at $6.20 27 Dec before market open- I forecasted F& N share price to rise higher 27 Dec Closing- F& N closed at $6.38 28 Dec- I forecast on 30 Dec- many people will have mixed view & take different position. So, Each to his own. Certainly, my view is hold. There may be fall or rise of F& N price. I revealed the ultimate prediction: - 2FCL must keep The value of $1 each, is not a fixed price, & will rise very hugely in future - At end will have 2 FCL (with rising value) + 1 F& N - After having 2 FCL, each will have to decide if to keep F& N. --> As further events of $0.45 (dividends) to be announced + $0.12 (dividends) on Feb. --> Will biggest shareholders unlock more profits? [Hospital Trust and how it will boost F& N business] --> For those that trust biggest shareholder business ability- its best to hold For those that don't trust biggest shareholder business ability- its best to sell For those that follow through this set of F& N ultimate prediction, you are on the safe track. As the ultimate prediction are revealed. 29 Dec updated: BET with Wang Si Tong + Starlene (Valid on Monday only- 30/12/2013) Next, i have a bet with Wang Si Tong on Monday 30th Dec 2013 result- F& N may even rise & even if drop will not drop much. (Likely near $6 range) I quoted 3 times above his " so called Nav" [More than 3x of Wang Si Tong NAV $1.695]= $5 - $6.20 range/ higher I indicated Wang Si Tong calculation NAV result for monday is wrong, & Wang Si Tong made a big mistake by selling F& N for some profits. 2FCL benefits- he will miss out 2014 benefits- depends on individual decision [Dividends + Possibility of Take Over will benefit shareholder further (if it happens) ] If my bet against Wang Si Tong failed- I will personally delete " Metal Trader" and not to give any prediction from Monday. If i win, Wang Si Tong will realize he will know he had made a big mistake If i win, Starlene will realize he is not up to standard |
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bigsmall
Member |
29-Dec-2013 23:52
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Wow ! MetalTrader my respect !
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MetalTrader
Master |
29-Dec-2013 23:40
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Your bet if failed will be recorded under my track record together with wang si tong. I accept your bet too :)
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MetalTrader
Master |
29-Dec-2013 23:38
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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They won't throw, because if they do a takeover will happen. They can sell at higher price to largest shareholder, thus they never sell. Either way, shareholder will get greater value.
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nea03177
Senior |
29-Dec-2013 23:32
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Why did 9.7% of F&N 's minority shareholder not tender their shares to TCC when the $9.55 offer lapse. Some used CPF funds like Mr Wan and forgot about it. Then there are others who got it at IPO and held it since then and many who kept the shares for many many years. They love F&N and were so sad when they lost APB. When shares resume trading after suspension, some bought back what they tender. Tomorrow, will these people throw? | ||||
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nea03177
Senior |
29-Dec-2013 23:21
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I made a mistake here and waited more than 2 weeks for you are to point out the error. It seems nobody pays attention to what is written. More interested in Mr Wan and Mr Metal Trader's posting. It should be free float of 12% and not 88%. Hahaha
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nea03177
Senior |
29-Dec-2013 23:15
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Chareon was given up to 31 Dec 2013 to reduce his shareholding in F&N to 88%. This extension was given because his group could not sell the 2 over % by 31 July citing bad market conditions. It was provided in FCL's brochure that they undertake to pare their holdings before FCL listing. Metal Trader did say they had already done so when in fact they did it only recently. However, this is not a material fact. As long as FCL's public float is 12%, they can go ahead.
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nea03177
Senior |
29-Dec-2013 22:39
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I bet on Metal Trader. Above $5.08.
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MetalTrader
Master |
29-Dec-2013 21:47
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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My forecast on monday, share will continue to rise, even if drop will not drop much. Even if I put 3x higher of your "so called NAV" - its nothing. The bet is accepted.
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