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AllTechnical Member	26-Oct-2022 15:54        AllTechnical About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	POEMS Technical Analysis
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lukewong82 Master	26-Oct-2022 15:49        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The japan assets acquisition will be completed end of this month so accretive of 2.6% will be counted into coming quarter 4Q/22.
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lukewong82 Master	26-Oct-2022 15:43        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Expected tat the guy trying to spread fear will not tell you the whole truth about ESR-LOGOS results. Compared to Mapletree 3.5% positive reversion, ESR-LOGOS achieved positive reversion of more than 10% for 3Q and the 9m.  Mapletree Log MLT saw a positive average  rental reversion of 3.5 per cent  for leases signed in Q2. As at Sep 30, the weighted average lease expiry (WALE) by net lettable area (NLA) stood at 3.3 years. ESR-LOGOS For both the third quarter and YTD 2022, the Reit& rsquo s (real estate investment trust) portfolio achieved a positive  rental reversion of 11.4 per cent, with space demand mainly driven by the logistics and high-specs segment.
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lukewong82 Master	26-Oct-2022 15:37        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Someone is trying to cause panic and he does it without any depth in analysis just want to spread fear. Well, good for him to bump up this thread and a chance for me to clarify..  1) 3Q has always being the dull period where occupation is the lowest. 4Q end of the year when most companies decide to settle down. Even Mapletree is not spared. 2) ESR-LOGOS is disposing of some assets/properties which are scheduled to be completed in 4Q/2022, understandably the tenants of these assets will vacate due to the change of ownership so 3Q occupancy rate will drop due to the pending disposal of assets.  3) Compared to Mapletree, I must admit that ESR-LOGOS is lacking behind but no shame because Mapletree is the big brother. If u choose to look at the glass half full, you can say that since ESR-LOGOS is disposal of low yield (which means low occupancy) assets, there is A LOT of room for ESR-LOGOS to catch up with Mapletree. Imagine after all the disposal of low yielding assets, the occupancy rate jumps to 96%, then ESR-LOGOS will see a tremendous jump in DPU.  Even Mapletree is not spared. There is a drop in 3Q occupancy.
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baoyuk Member	26-Oct-2022 14:59        baoyuk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Wah 3Q2022 operating metrics is quite telling for the DPU in the quarter ocuppancy fell from 94.1% in 1H2022 to 92.4% in 3Q2022 Net property income only increase by 59% when total number of units increase by 66% (means less net property income for every unit) Cost of debt increase by 10% from 2.97%  to 3.27% I think it is clear from the above recurring DPU is estimated to be lower in 3Q2022 on a year on year basis
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lukewong82 Master	26-Oct-2022 13:46        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	ESR-LOGOS is disposing low yielding out dated assets in the tune of $400m within the next 1-2 years. So eventually the gearing will be reduced with the proceeds coming in and income increase due to the completion of AEIs just like what happens to Sabana reits completion of AEI of Newtech Park. chengwh1      ( Date: 26-Oct-2022 12:55) Posted: The Business Update mentioned this morning that the toplines all grew because of Ara being ' absorbed into' ESR-REIT. There is no calculation provided down to dpu level. With a large incarese in units, will the dpu be reduced ? 19.6% of loans to be refinanced next year, followed by 17.4% to be refinanced in 2024 (see Slide 11). Higher interest rates will haunt these ' new loans' ,....
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lukewong82 Master	26-Oct-2022 13:43        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Why are u so surprised? Many reits including the reputable ones having to face high interest rate.. ESR-LOGOS only need to  refinance at the end of 2023. So this year till almost the whole of next year they dun have to refinance. Perhaps u take a look at the Mapletree and Ascendas debt profile. ALL REITS ARE AFFECTED BY HIGHER INTEREST RATE. Why are u so " surprised" that ESR-LOGOS is affected? Refer: chengwh1      ( Date: 26-Oct-2022 12:55) Posted: The Business Update mentioned this morning that the toplines all grew because of Ara being ' absorbed into' ESR-REIT. There is no calculation provided down to dpu level. With a large incarese in units, will the dpu be reduced ? 19.6% of loans to be refinanced next year, followed by 17.4% to be refinanced in 2024 (see Slide 11). Higher interest rates will haunt these ' new loans' ,....
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lukewong82 Master	26-Oct-2022 13:28        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	it' s loans maturity are spread out and the next refinance is 4Q/2023, so maybe then the interest rate would have already start dropping. Higher interest haunt every single reits , not only ESR-LOGOS.  chengwh1      ( Date: 26-Oct-2022 12:55) Posted: The Business Update mentioned this morning that the toplines all grew because of Ara being ' absorbed into' ESR-REIT. There is no calculation provided down to dpu level. With a large incarese in units, will the dpu be reduced ? 19.6% of loans to be refinanced next year, followed by 17.4% to be refinanced in 2024 (see Slide 11). Higher interest rates will haunt these ' new loans' ,....
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chengwh1 Elite	26-Oct-2022 12:55        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The Business Update mentioned this morning that the toplines all grew because of Ara being ' absorbed into' ESR-REIT. There is no calculation provided down to dpu level. With a large incarese in units, will the dpu be reduced ? 19.6% of loans to be refinanced next year, followed by 17.4% to be refinanced in 2024 (see Slide 11). Higher interest rates will haunt these ' new loans' ,....
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lukewong82 Master	25-Oct-2022 22:14        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	ya.. in an alternate universe, only ESR-LOGOS crash, the rest of the counters all bull run. I told u that guy something wrong. I really pity him.. Maybe he lost so much money a bit short circuit already so he is dreaming in his alternative universe where STI is now 4000 and only ESR-LOGOS crash I pity him , really aragosta      ( Date: 25-Oct-2022 21:51) Posted: --- Post Removed by User ---
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baoyuk Member	25-Oct-2022 21:34        baoyuk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	wait.. is lukewong82 who highly recommended ESR REIT since S$0.42 and has probably lost > 20% of its value since then laughing at other people not understanding concepts?  who is the one who do not understand concepts? lol   lukewong82      ( Date: 25-Oct-2022 18:21) Posted: I dun know whether to laugh at the person or pity him for his ignorance. ESR-LOGOS number of shares increased because they issued shares to acquire ARA-LOGOS which is a good thing because  it prevented the gearing of ESR reit ballooning. And the exchange was quite acceptable because it used the exchange rate of around 48 cents per ESR reit share for ARA-LOGOS shares.  I seriously quite sad for that guy because he does not understand many concepts..    quite sad for him ..  aragosta      ( Date: 25-Oct-2022 15:31) Posted: --- Post Removed by User ---
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lukewong82 Master	25-Oct-2022 18:21        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I dun know whether to laugh at the person or pity him for his ignorance. ESR-LOGOS number of shares increased because they issued shares to acquire ARA-LOGOS which is a good thing because  it prevented the gearing of ESR reit ballooning. And the exchange was quite acceptable because it used the exchange rate of around 48 cents per ESR reit share for ARA-LOGOS shares.  I seriously quite sad for that guy because he does not understand many concepts..    quite sad for him ..  aragosta      ( Date: 25-Oct-2022 15:31) Posted: --- Post Removed by User ---
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baoyuk Member	25-Oct-2022 16:40        baoyuk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	They will most probably try to do a year on year comparision in revenue and net property income of 3Q20221 and 3Q2022 which will show good growth as it consolidates the revenue and net property income of ARA Logos (merger completed in April 2022). But the number of shares increased from 4007m to 6699m, an increase of 67.2%
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Goldfinger Supreme	25-Oct-2022 15:56        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let the results tomorrow show hand.  I still have yet to be convinced as well.  If there is a marked improvement to DPU (and not just " distributable income" with a lot of dilution), I would still not be impressed. lukewong82      ( Date: 23-Oct-2022 20:14) Posted: Let me give a layman explanation: Let say I have a restaurant earning $1000 per month and total 100 shares of the restaurant. The DPU will be $10 per mth. But in order to expand the restaurant I issue 100 preferential shares to my friend in order for him to invest $$$ in my restaurant. So now it means earning of $1000 per month but 200 shares now. The DPU drops to $5 per mth due to the enlarge share base. So assuming the construction for the expansion takes 6 mths, it means I will experience drop in DPU for 6 mths. But once the expansion construction (aka AEI) is completed, my larger restaurant can earn $3000 per month now. Meaning eventually my DPU will increase to $3000 divideded by 200 shares = $15 per mth.   lukewong82      ( Date: 23-Oct-2022 20:08) Posted: In 2021 3Q, there was a Preferential shares offering that enlarge the share base and thus there was a temporary drop in DPU starting from 2nd half of 2021 as there was a larger share base and thus the dividend PER UNIT experienced a drop. The proceeds from the Preferential shares was used for the acquisition of Aust properties as well as for the AEIs. Therefore once the income started coming in from the Aust assets as well as completion of AEIs gathering pace, more income is coming in which therefore resulted in the subsequent increase in DPU from 4Q/2021. Before Preferential shares was issued in Aug 2021. DPU was higher at 0.75 to 0.8 cents. There was a drop in DPU in 3Q/2021 to 0.712 cents due to the enlarge share based due to the Preferential shares. BUT the money generated by the Preferential shares is used to acquire aust assets and also for AEIs. Once the new income started generated from the new aust assets as well as the AEIs completions, the DPU started increasing. 3Q/2021: 0.712 cents ==> drop due to the enlarged share base 4Q/2021: 0.721 cents ==> contribution from the newly acquired aust assets + income from the extra space created by AEIs started coming in means DPU increased 1Q/2022: 0.723 cents ==> DPU continues it' s uptrend 2Q/2022: 0.737 cents ==> DPU continues it' s uptrend Same situation as Sabane Reits. Sabana reits experienced a drop in DPU due to the same reason where they undergone AEIs of the new tech Park.\ Once the AEI was completed, DPU rebounded. For ESR-LOGOS , some of the AEIs already obtained TOPs and started contributing extra income. There are a few more AEIs to be completed in 2023 and 2024. When these AEIs are completed plus the disposal of low yielding assets and newly acquired Japan assets, the DPU is expected to  trend up further even if interest rate increases. I expect the DPU to reach 0.90 cents to 1 cents per quarter or 2 cents per half in late 2023.
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baoyuk Member	25-Oct-2022 15:24        baoyuk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let me correct your layman explaination. You have a restaurant which is worth $10,000 and earns 500 a year. you do a small tiny renovation, AEI which is only $50.. and earn $3 of extra income per year. the increase in your income is only a small tiny tiny 0.6% per year!!  ESR portfolio is S$5.5billion and you keep talking about a small small tiny tiny AEI of $140m How much do you tnk the small AEI can increase income and DPU by? vs the large portfolio? Is it even enough to cover the drop in land lease?    In 2 years time, the lease life  of the 750 - 750E Chai Chee business park is approx 6 years remaining (approximately 4.7% of portfolio)                                                   the lease life of Jackson Square is approx 5 years remaining (approximately0.9% of portfolio)                                                   the lease life of Alog Commodity Hub is approx 11 years remaining (approximately 4.7%) of portfolio
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lukewong82 Master	23-Oct-2022 20:14        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let me give a layman explanation: Let say I have a restaurant earning $1000 per month and total 100 shares of the restaurant. The DPU will be $10 per mth. But in order to expand the restaurant I issue 100 preferential shares to my friend in order for him to invest $$$ in my restaurant. So now it means earning of $1000 per month but 200 shares now. The DPU drops to $5 per mth due to the enlarge share base. So assuming the construction for the expansion takes 6 mths, it means I will experience drop in DPU for 6 mths. But once the expansion construction (aka AEI) is completed, my larger restaurant can earn $3000 per month now. Meaning eventually my DPU will increase to $3000 divideded by 200 shares = $15 per mth.   lukewong82      ( Date: 23-Oct-2022 20:08) Posted: In 2021 3Q, there was a Preferential shares offering that enlarge the share base and thus there was a temporary drop in DPU starting from 2nd half of 2021 as there was a larger share base and thus the dividend PER UNIT experienced a drop. The proceeds from the Preferential shares was used for the acquisition of Aust properties as well as for the AEIs. Therefore once the income started coming in from the Aust assets as well as completion of AEIs gathering pace, more income is coming in which therefore resulted in the subsequent increase in DPU from 4Q/2021. Before Preferential shares was issued in Aug 2021. DPU was higher at 0.75 to 0.8 cents. There was a drop in DPU in 3Q/2021 to 0.712 cents due to the enlarge share based due to the Preferential shares. BUT the money generated by the Preferential shares is used to acquire aust assets and also for AEIs. Once the new income started generated from the new aust assets as well as the AEIs completions, the DPU started increasing. 3Q/2021: 0.712 cents ==> drop due to the enlarged share base 4Q/2021: 0.721 cents ==> contribution from the newly acquired aust assets + income from the extra space created by AEIs started coming in means DPU increased 1Q/2022: 0.723 cents ==> DPU continues it' s uptrend 2Q/2022: 0.737 cents ==> DPU continues it' s uptrend Same situation as Sabane Reits. Sabana reits experienced a drop in DPU due to the same reason where they undergone AEIs of the new tech Park.\ Once the AEI was completed, DPU rebounded. For ESR-LOGOS , some of the AEIs already obtained TOPs and started contributing extra income. There are a few more AEIs to be completed in 2023 and 2024. When these AEIs are completed plus the disposal of low yielding assets and newly acquired Japan assets, the DPU is expected to  trend up further even if interest rate increases. I expect the DPU to reach 0.90 cents to 1 cents per quarter or 2 cents per half in late 2023.
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lukewong82 Master	23-Oct-2022 20:08        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In 2021 3Q, there was a Preferential shares offering that enlarge the share base and thus there was a temporary drop in DPU starting from 2nd half of 2021 as there was a larger share base and thus the dividend PER UNIT experienced a drop. The proceeds from the Preferential shares was used for the acquisition of Aust properties as well as for the AEIs. Therefore once the income started coming in from the Aust assets as well as completion of AEIs gathering pace, more income is coming in which therefore resulted in the subsequent increase in DPU from 4Q/2021. Before Preferential shares was issued in Aug 2021. DPU was higher at 0.75 to 0.8 cents. There was a drop in DPU in 3Q/2021 to 0.712 cents due to the enlarge share based due to the Preferential shares. BUT the money generated by the Preferential shares is used to acquire aust assets and also for AEIs. Once the new income started generated from the new aust assets as well as the AEIs completions, the DPU started increasing. 3Q/2021: 0.712 cents ==> drop due to the enlarged share base 4Q/2021: 0.721 cents ==> contribution from the newly acquired aust assets + income from the extra space created by AEIs started coming in means DPU increased 1Q/2022: 0.723 cents ==> DPU continues it' s uptrend 2Q/2022: 0.737 cents ==> DPU continues it' s uptrend Same situation as Sabane Reits. Sabana reits experienced a drop in DPU due to the same reason where they undergone AEIs of the new tech Park.\ Once the AEI was completed, DPU rebounded. For ESR-LOGOS , some of the AEIs already obtained TOPs and started contributing extra income. There are a few more AEIs to be completed in 2023 and 2024. When these AEIs are completed plus the disposal of low yielding assets and newly acquired Japan assets, the DPU is expected to  trend up further even if interest rate increases. I expect the DPU to reach 0.90 cents to 1 cents per quarter or 2 cents per half in late 2023.
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lukewong82 Master	23-Oct-2022 19:55        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	To anyone who may not know the structure of dividend. eg: Mapletree Log Trust Here u can see that Capital gain is part and parcel of dividends. If a reit sells assets aggressively, it' s revenue will drop due to the loss of income BUT the capital gain will increase due to the amount received from the sale. Then after employing the proceeds (cash) from the sale to acquire new assets or AEIs, the new assets/completed AEIs will start contributing  and then the dividend from taxable/non taxable income will start increasing while the capital gain decreases. So for ESR-LOGOS which is aggressively selling assets currently, the dividends from the income will decrease but the dividends from capital gain will increase. Then when the proceeds is used to acquire new assets like the Japan assets or used for AEIs and income starts coming in from the new assets/completed AEIs, u will start to see dividends from the income increase while dividends from capital gain decrease. So dividend is always comprised of 2 parts: Dividend from income and Dividend from Capital Gain depending on what phase the reit is in ==> Expanding/Restructuing phase with selling and acquiring/AEIs in turbo mode or Maturing Phase with dividends from income.
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lukewong82 Master	23-Oct-2022 19:53        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	As ESR-LOGOS is now undergoing massive restructuring by selling outdated low yielding short lease assets, there will be vacuum in the revenue and the profit from the massive disposal is used to fill the gap as the proceeds from the disposal is being used to acquire freehold  higher yielding properties like those in Aust and Japan and also for AEIs and redevelopment. Once contributions from the new assets and completed AEIs  start coming in, we will see the dividend component getting better and better.  Capital gain due to selling assets is very very common in ALL reits as assets are being disposed while new assets are being acquired. Capital gain forms part of dividend for ALL REITS.
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lukewong82 Master	23-Oct-2022 19:52        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	They have shown improvements in their last 4 quarters dividends: 2Q/2022: 0.737 cents 1Q/2022: 0.723 cents 4Q/2021: 0.721 cents 3Q/2021: 0.712 cents ==> Increasing DPU for the last 4 quarters Source: ESR-LOGOS website  http://www.esr-logosreit.com.sg/
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