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junction Master	26-Dec-2016 10:37        junction About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Your writeup and analysis is more factual than other forerunners.   For example, one forerunner posted the dividend is reduced from 4.8 cts to 1.6 cts.   All you have to do is check with SGX website.  wirado      ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 10:05) Posted: I think this should help to clear things out. APTV Business is providing pay-TV and broadband business in Taiwan. APTT&rsquo s seed asset, Taiwan Broadband Communications Group (TBC). It owns the cable network that passes over 1.1 million homes in five franchise areas across Taiwan. Through this network TBC delivers Basic cable TV, Premium digital cable TV and high-speed Broadband services to these homes. Based on 3rd quarter, APTV has 761,000 Basic Cable TV, 178,000 Premium digital cable TV, 201,000 Broadband service. This business is different with other business where you don' t lose a majority of your customer in quickly or no demand. The business is much of monopoly. There is only one provider within the franchise area and you have to buy cable TV license which provides a high barrier to entry and this shown on Balance sheet as an intangible asset. (From Financial statement notes, the value of the cable TV licences and goodwill is allocated to the Group&rsquo s CGU which is principally engaged in the Basiccable TV, Premium digital cable TV and Broadband services in Taiwan.) I asked the management on the subscription locked in period and renewal rate to ensure stable cash flow from customers: Our basic cable TV subscribers are pre-paid, meaning they must pay in advance before receiving our service. We have been the sole provider of cable TV services in our areas for well over 10 years, and we carry all of the popular channels (including all of the top 20 rated channels in Taiwan) in our basic package for an all inclusive rate currently an average price of approximately NT$538 per month, so very affordable. Because of this, our customers tend to continue their subscription service with us rather than switch to an alternate provider of TV content I asked about the termination rate: Currently our basic cable TV churn rate is less than 1% (less than 1% of our customers choose to leave and use a different provider of TV), and it has been at this level for many years. This is a reflection of the high customer satisfaction levels across our subscriber base. Pay-TV business is much of stable as it is a monopoly and customers can' t choose to use other providers. In the quarters to come, it should be stable cash-flow. Now if we look at the Q3 revenue (You can reference back from Q3 announcement).  total revenue only down 2.8% compare to last quarter. However, in NT$, it is only 1% down. There is a negative foreign exchange. The lower revenue is due to the lower advertisement and lower channel leasing. I don' t see much of set back if we get lower revenue from advertisement. This is just additional income from the main business. Lower revenue of 2.8% doesn' t translate to a significant drop in dividend from 2 cents to 1.625 cents. To find out more, we shall dive through Cashflow statement on how the cash is moved. On Q3 Cashflow, APTV has 10mil profit but we have made an adjustment to non-cash portions. We got total of 42 mil from operating activities. Interest to be paid is 14Mil. We left with 28 mil. On last year, APTV used to distribute 100% of this. If you divided this 28 mil to issue shares, we get 2 cents dividend. I believe management do the right thing to reduce the dividend to 1.625 cents (total of 23Mil from issued shares). By doing this, they have free cash-flow of 5mil. Now on borrowing portion. I believe Bank or Financial institution has done their research before even commit to lend such huge amount to APTV. The business model provides a stable cashflow to pay the interest. For this reason, APTV has funding certainty, better terms and pricing. From Q3, APTV has secured the facility and no major refinancing till 2019.
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wirado Member	26-Dec-2016 10:05        wirado About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	I think this should help to clear things out. APTV Business is providing pay-TV and broadband business in Taiwan. APTT&rsquo s seed asset, Taiwan Broadband Communications Group (TBC). It owns the cable network that passes over 1.1 million homes in five franchise areas across Taiwan. Through this network TBC delivers Basic cable TV, Premium digital cable TV and high-speed Broadband services to these homes. Based on 3rd quarter, APTV has 761,000 Basic Cable TV, 178,000 Premium digital cable TV, 201,000 Broadband service. This business is different with other business where you don' t lose a majority of your customer in quickly or no demand. The business is much of monopoly. There is only one provider within the franchise area and you have to buy cable TV license which provides a high barrier to entry and this shown on Balance sheet as an intangible asset. (From Financial statement notes, the value of the cable TV licences and goodwill is allocated to the Group&rsquo s CGU which is principally engaged in the Basiccable TV, Premium digital cable TV and Broadband services in Taiwan.) I asked the management on the subscription locked in period and renewal rate to ensure stable cash flow from customers: Our basic cable TV subscribers are pre-paid, meaning they must pay in advance before receiving our service. We have been the sole provider of cable TV services in our areas for well over 10 years, and we carry all of the popular channels (including all of the top 20 rated channels in Taiwan) in our basic package for an all inclusive rate currently an average price of approximately NT$538 per month, so very affordable. Because of this, our customers tend to continue their subscription service with us rather than switch to an alternate provider of TV content I asked about the termination rate: Currently our basic cable TV churn rate is less than 1% (less than 1% of our customers choose to leave and use a different provider of TV), and it has been at this level for many years. This is a reflection of the high customer satisfaction levels across our subscriber base. Pay-TV business is much of stable as it is a monopoly and customers can' t choose to use other providers. In the quarters to come, it should be stable cash-flow. Now if we look at the Q3 revenue (You can reference back from Q3 announcement).  total revenue only down 2.8% compare to last quarter. However, in NT$, it is only 1% down. There is a negative foreign exchange. The lower revenue is due to the lower advertisement and lower channel leasing. I don' t see much of set back if we get lower revenue from advertisement. This is just additional income from the main business. Lower revenue of 2.8% doesn' t translate to a significant drop in dividend from 2 cents to 1.625 cents. To find out more, we shall dive through Cashflow statement on how the cash is moved. On Q3 Cashflow, APTV has 10mil profit but we have made an adjustment to non-cash portions. We got total of 42 mil from operating activities. Interest to be paid is 14Mil. We left with 28 mil. On last year, APTV used to distribute 100% of this. If you divided this 28 mil to issue shares, we get 2 cents dividend. I believe management do the right thing to reduce the dividend to 1.625 cents (total of 23Mil from issued shares). By doing this, they have free cash-flow of 5mil. Now on borrowing portion. I believe Bank or Financial institution has done their research before even commit to lend such huge amount to APTV. The business model provides a stable cashflow to pay the interest. For this reason, APTV has funding certainty, better terms and pricing. From Q3, APTV has secured the facility and no major refinancing till 2019.
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earlybird14 Supreme	26-Dec-2016 08:18        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Investor shall look into following thing closely quarter by quarter 1) revenue And finance cost, revenue drop reflect business no good, finance cost higher due to rising debt and rising interest which reduce cash generation for dividend 2) cash 40 mio, pay dividend per quarter is 23 mio, so mean this trust cannot pay over what they earn anymore 3) debt 1.2bil, with 2.3 bil out of 2.6 bil (total assets) is intangible asset, I believe this trust has touch the limit to borrow more. Above no improve will sink further. earlybird14      ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 07:54) Posted: Trust price stick with dividend payout and so far no much surprise on their movement with other issues. A suggestion to look into 3 things with past 3 year result, cash, borrowing and dividend payout, 2 raise 1 down, cash down from 100 over mio till 40 plus mio, debt up from 910mio to 1.22bil, dividend down from 4.8 cents to 1.6 cents. past 3 quarter earn 3 cents but give 4.8 cents. Then look into balance sheet, cash reduce, debt hike mean they are paying dividend with borrowing. This is a 败 家 model, it won't be sustainable with the dividend payout. Technically, chart show oversold, bounce is expected but will happen after the selling stop, but price won't cross 47 which is the start of selling, the longer the bounce drag, the lower price it can bounce. 40mio cash with 1.2bil debt and about 92mio dividend payout per year with 1.6 cents, for this trust to be sustainable, next dividend cut shall cut till 80% dividend payout with the earning 4 cents, should be 3.2 cents. In 2016, dividend 6.48 cents, price stay 55-65 cents. Due to cash is low, 100% payout will be 4 cents, so price shall stay 32-42 in 2017. Revenue is key since it has been dropping q to q which affect the dividend payout too. Further drop will bring price to next level in 2018 and lead to liquidity with 1.2 bil debt and 40 mio cash, since they have no other source to pay debt when the bond is mature. TMW1986      ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 05:31) Posted:       Previously before Innovalues takeover, the price drop from all times high to 0.90, I scope some at 0.88, then it drop further to 0.81-0.82 range, I average down again. Within 2 weeks the price went up, and i sold my holdings at 0.92. However, within the next 3rd week the company announce takeover of $1 and the share price went to $0.97. Conclusion is sometime share price drop because there will be some big funds driving the share price down first before scoping the cheap shares when fear is created in the market. Those who feared and short or sell their holdings may regret at the end. Of course if the company is not doing well then the share price will drop, but I think APTV should be able to maintain at least 5 cents of dividends in the next few years. It has drop from all time high 80 cents to less than 40 cents. 2016 result actually quite similar to 2014 result. 2015 is considered a good year as got presidential election which boost the revenue.  We can only wait till next quarter result and see what the trust say about 2017 potential earnings before making a conclusion. One thing for sure I feel is APTV won' t have rights issue because Taiwan APT chairman intend to takeover TBC which is own by APTV. Let' s see again what happen in the next 2-3 quarters.
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earlybird14 Supreme	26-Dec-2016 07:54        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Trust price stick with dividend payout and so far no much surprise on their movement with other issues. A suggestion to look into 3 things with past 3 year result, cash, borrowing and dividend payout, 2 raise 1 down, cash down from 100 over mio till 40 plus mio, debt up from 910mio to 1.22bil, dividend down from 4.8 cents to 1.6 cents. past 3 quarter earn 3 cents but give 4.8 cents. Then look into balance sheet, cash reduce, debt hike mean they are paying dividend with borrowing. This is a 败 家 model, it won't be sustainable with the dividend payout. Technically, chart show oversold, bounce is expected but will happen after the selling stop, but price won't cross 47 which is the start of selling, the longer the bounce drag, the lower price it can bounce. 40mio cash with 1.2bil debt and about 92mio dividend payout per year with 1.6 cents, for this trust to be sustainable, next dividend cut shall cut till 80% dividend payout with the earning 4 cents, should be 3.2 cents. In 2016, dividend 6.48 cents, price stay 55-65 cents. Due to cash is low, 100% payout will be 4 cents, so price shall stay 32-42 in 2017. Revenue is key since it has been dropping q to q which affect the dividend payout too. Further drop will bring price to next level in 2018 and lead to liquidity with 1.2 bil debt and 40 mio cash, since they have no other source to pay debt when the bond is mature. TMW1986      ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 05:31) Posted:       Previously before Innovalues takeover, the price drop from all times high to 0.90, I scope some at 0.88, then it drop further to 0.81-0.82 range, I average down again. Within 2 weeks the price went up, and i sold my holdings at 0.92. However, within the next 3rd week the company announce takeover of $1 and the share price went to $0.97. Conclusion is sometime share price drop because there will be some big funds driving the share price down first before scoping the cheap shares when fear is created in the market. Those who feared and short or sell their holdings may regret at the end. Of course if the company is not doing well then the share price will drop, but I think APTV should be able to maintain at least 5 cents of dividends in the next few years. It has drop from all time high 80 cents to less than 40 cents. 2016 result actually quite similar to 2014 result. 2015 is considered a good year as got presidential election which boost the revenue.  We can only wait till next quarter result and see what the trust say about 2017 potential earnings before making a conclusion. One thing for sure I feel is APTV won' t have rights issue because Taiwan APT chairman intend to takeover TBC which is own by APTV. Let' s see again what happen in the next 2-3 quarters.   earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 19:18) Posted: Price won't tank for no reason. Too many default and right issue since 2015, market bull run since 2005 till 2015, 10 years, in this 10 years, bonds, notes debts flying everywhere due to low interest rate and easily attract people parking money on higher interest bond and note, after 2015, interest rate hike is surfaced, due to U.S. election, the rate hike delay 1 year till 2017, at the same times, notes and bonds are seeking for refinancing, some forced to issue right to raise cash to reduce gear ratio in order to obtain refinancing, for those fail to raise cash through right, market lose confidence completely and result liquidation. Worse to come in 2017 to 2018, bad trust default, healthy trust will fall 30-50%, due to higher borrowing cost which reduce dividend pay out. Do own due diligence, self painting nice picture to convince your own is meaningless. Stock price up with reason down with reason, market is honest and seldom do wrong.
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TMW1986 Master	26-Dec-2016 05:31        TMW1986 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Previously before Innovalues takeover, the price drop from all times high to 0.90, I scope some at 0.88, then it drop further to 0.81-0.82 range, I average down again. Within 2 weeks the price went up, and i sold my holdings at 0.92. However, within the next 3rd week the company announce takeover of $1 and the share price went to $0.97. Conclusion is sometime share price drop because there will be some big funds driving the share price down first before scoping the cheap shares when fear is created in the market. Those who feared and short or sell their holdings may regret at the end. Of course if the company is not doing well then the share price will drop, but I think APTV should be able to maintain at least 5 cents of dividends in the next few years. It has drop from all time high 80 cents to less than 40 cents. 2016 result actually quite similar to 2014 result. 2015 is considered a good year as got presidential election which boost the revenue.  We can only wait till next quarter result and see what the trust say about 2017 potential earnings before making a conclusion. One thing for sure I feel is APTV won' t have rights issue because Taiwan APT chairman intend to takeover TBC which is own by APTV. Let' s see again what happen in the next 2-3 quarters.   earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 19:18) Posted: Price won't tank for no reason. Too many default and right issue since 2015, market bull run since 2005 till 2015, 10 years, in this 10 years, bonds, notes debts flying everywhere due to low interest rate and easily attract people parking money on higher interest bond and note, after 2015, interest rate hike is surfaced, due to U.S. election, the rate hike delay 1 year till 2017, at the same times, notes and bonds are seeking for refinancing, some forced to issue right to raise cash to reduce gear ratio in order to obtain refinancing, for those fail to raise cash through right, market lose confidence completely and result liquidation. Worse to come in 2017 to 2018, bad trust default, healthy trust will fall 30-50%, due to higher borrowing cost which reduce dividend pay out. Do own due diligence, self painting nice picture to convince your own is meaningless. Stock price up with reason down with reason, market is honest and seldom do wrong. Merc85      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 18:51) Posted: There is no any negative news for APPT but the share price has tank like no tomorrow. Mr Market may be passimistic due to high leverage and interest rate hike. But from cash-flow perspective, the trust is still OK. The Short Sell is about 25~50% of total volume for last couple of weeks. Some big boy may take this opportunity to short the stock and flush out the weak retail investors?      From APPT Q3 report: The Group believes that it has adequate working capital for its present requirements and that its existing debt facilities, together with cash and cash equivalents, will provide sufficient funds to satisfy its working capital requirements and anticipated capital expenditures and other payment obligations for the next 12 months, after taking into consideration the following factors: &bull The Group has five cable TV system operators, with their nine-year cable TV licences renewed in either 2008 or 2009, that serve approximately 761,000 cable TV subscribers as at 30 September 2016, with more than 100 channels of local and international content on its analogue and digital cable TV platforms in Taiwan. Hence, it is expected that the Group&rsquo s core business, i.e. cable TV system operators and their related businesses, will continue generating sufficient and stable cash inflows. This is consistent with the positive operating cash flows generated by the Group of $125.6 million for the nine months ended 30 September 2016 (year ended 31 December 2015: $168.5 million). &bull In view of the steady operating cash flows generated, good credibility over the past years and full compliance with the requirements as stipulated in the debt facilities, the Trustee-Manager is confident it can refinance such debt facilities when required. &bull The Trustee-Manager has carefully monitored and managed its cash flows. Management and operation reports are prepared and reviewed on a monthly basis and cash flow forecasts are prepared on a quarterly basis to project cash flow requirements of the Group using various general and operational assumptions.
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pinkowl Supreme	25-Dec-2016 23:17        pinkowl About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	How much have you shorted?  Market is honest? Thought market is emotional and can get over-pessimistic and over-optimistic?   Otherwise, how does value investing work? Which part of APTT' s financial statement and fundamental suggested they would likely issue rights or is prone to liquidation? Would love to see your fundamental analysis. Thank you.   earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 19:18) Posted: Price won't tank for no reason. Too many default and right issue since 2015, market bull run since 2005 till 2015, 10 years, in this 10 years, bonds, notes debts flying everywhere due to low interest rate and easily attract people parking money on higher interest bond and note, after 2015, interest rate hike is surfaced, due to U.S. election, the rate hike delay 1 year till 2017, at the same times, notes and bonds are seeking for refinancing, some forced to issue right to raise cash to reduce gear ratio in order to obtain refinancing, for those fail to raise cash through right, market lose confidence completely and result liquidation. Worse to come in 2017 to 2018, bad trust default, healthy trust will fall 30-50%, due to higher borrowing cost which reduce dividend pay out. Do own due diligence, self painting nice picture to convince your own is meaningless. Stock price up with reason down with reason, market is honest and seldom do wrong. Merc85      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 18:51) Posted: There is no any negative news for APPT but the share price has tank like no tomorrow. Mr Market may be passimistic due to high leverage and interest rate hike. But from cash-flow perspective, the trust is still OK. The Short Sell is about 25~50% of total volume for last couple of weeks. Some big boy may take this opportunity to short the stock and flush out the weak retail investors?      From APPT Q3 report: The Group believes that it has adequate working capital for its present requirements and that its existing debt facilities, together with cash and cash equivalents, will provide sufficient funds to satisfy its working capital requirements and anticipated capital expenditures and other payment obligations for the next 12 months, after taking into consideration the following factors: &bull The Group has five cable TV system operators, with their nine-year cable TV licences renewed in either 2008 or 2009, that serve approximately 761,000 cable TV subscribers as at 30 September 2016, with more than 100 channels of local and international content on its analogue and digital cable TV platforms in Taiwan. Hence, it is expected that the Group&rsquo s core business, i.e. cable TV system operators and their related businesses, will continue generating sufficient and stable cash inflows. This is consistent with the positive operating cash flows generated by the Group of $125.6 million for the nine months ended 30 September 2016 (year ended 31 December 2015: $168.5 million). &bull In view of the steady operating cash flows generated, good credibility over the past years and full compliance with the requirements as stipulated in the debt facilities, the Trustee-Manager is confident it can refinance such debt facilities when required. &bull The Trustee-Manager has carefully monitored and managed its cash flows. Management and operation reports are prepared and reviewed on a monthly basis and cash flow forecasts are prepared on a quarterly basis to project cash flow requirements of the Group using various general and operational assumptions.
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wirado Member	25-Dec-2016 21:00        wirado About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The way to calculate the business trust is different. You don' t take the income statement profit because there is a non-cash portion such as depreciation, foreign exchange gain/ loss, and financial instrument which has no affect on the cash flow. You can look through the APPT Cash flow statement. Net cash inflows from operation activities for Q3 2016 is 42 Mil. Out of this 42 Mil, 14 mil is used to pay interest so we got left 28 mil. APPT pays unit holder dividend 1.625 cents, it cost about 23 mil based on issue shares. So left with 5 mil free cashflow for other purposes. So in summary, they are not using borrowing to pay the dividend. With dividend 1.625 cents per quarter, we can get comfortable 6.5 cents per year. Please note that you also see a big amount of acquisition and borrowing for 2016 and 2017 because they are expanding. This also means in future that interest will be higher instead of current amount 14 mil. However, the expansion also will generate additional cash flow to pay the additional interest. earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 13:13) Posted: Generally, This company is still profitable, but in reducing mode, I will wait till the profit margin and dividend payout in a right proportional before consider to buy, a healthy balance rate between DPu( dividend payout per unit and epu( earning per unit) shall stay below 90%, and epu shall stop falling for 2-3 quarter. Currently epu is 0.74 cents, DPu is 1.6, cents, with cash in bank 40 mio, there is no reason to maintain 1.6 cents payout rate in coming quarter. Share price will automatically adjust with the DPu rate in next coming quarter, so long as epu continue to fall, share price will adjust accordingly. This is typical not catching falling knife. earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 13:03) Posted: Never said never. Rickmer has fallen, danger who called to buy was the one argue with me 1 year ago about rickmer doom. Nobody is absolutely right or wrong, but lesson learn from stock market is critical. I have no insider news at all and it is not important since when rickmer fall, shareholders all holding because nobody will buy the junk share from them. For pay TV trust to fall still a long way to go, about 2-3 years if the balance sheet is continue since iPo. For the time being, just observe will do, cash only left 40 mio, dividend need to pay, interest need to pay, if you are vested, I think you should spend some time to check when their 1.2bil loan is required to refinance, U.S. Confirm raising rate to 2% next year, it will only give more problem to trust on refinancing. To upgrade need money and more loan, cost will be higher and nobody can guarantee if new system can improve or reduce profitability in a higher interest environment plus China funds cannot buy and Taiwan economic may sink further in next 4 year under Ming Jing party ruling. Too much negative prospect on this counter, for those plan to buy to think twice and those plan to hold to think too. Again bounce is expected, and I don't think it will cross 50, with the margin, dividend will cut another 50% to stay dividend payout for 6-8% in 2017 with around 35-45 cents. Revisit in 2nd half 2017 will also not to late to think to load since system upgrade or trusty manager to do something to turn over also take time to go. But if any negative news form in coming months, we can see further down.
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earlybird14 Supreme	25-Dec-2016 19:18        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Price won't tank for no reason. Too many default and right issue since 2015, market bull run since 2005 till 2015, 10 years, in this 10 years, bonds, notes debts flying everywhere due to low interest rate and easily attract people parking money on higher interest bond and note, after 2015, interest rate hike is surfaced, due to U.S. election, the rate hike delay 1 year till 2017, at the same times, notes and bonds are seeking for refinancing, some forced to issue right to raise cash to reduce gear ratio in order to obtain refinancing, for those fail to raise cash through right, market lose confidence completely and result liquidation. Worse to come in 2017 to 2018, bad trust default, healthy trust will fall 30-50%, due to higher borrowing cost which reduce dividend pay out. Do own due diligence, self painting nice picture to convince your own is meaningless. Stock price up with reason down with reason, market is honest and seldom do wrong. Merc85      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 18:51) Posted: There is no any negative news for APPT but the share price has tank like no tomorrow. Mr Market may be passimistic due to high leverage and interest rate hike. But from cash-flow perspective, the trust is still OK. The Short Sell is about 25~50% of total volume for last couple of weeks. Some big boy may take this opportunity to short the stock and flush out the weak retail investors?      From APPT Q3 report: The Group believes that it has adequate working capital for its present requirements and that its existing debt facilities, together with cash and cash equivalents, will provide sufficient funds to satisfy its working capital requirements and anticipated capital expenditures and other payment obligations for the next 12 months, after taking into consideration the following factors: &bull The Group has five cable TV system operators, with their nine-year cable TV licences renewed in either 2008 or 2009, that serve approximately 761,000 cable TV subscribers as at 30 September 2016, with more than 100 channels of local and international content on its analogue and digital cable TV platforms in Taiwan. Hence, it is expected that the Group&rsquo s core business, i.e. cable TV system operators and their related businesses, will continue generating sufficient and stable cash inflows. This is consistent with the positive operating cash flows generated by the Group of $125.6 million for the nine months ended 30 September 2016 (year ended 31 December 2015: $168.5 million). &bull In view of the steady operating cash flows generated, good credibility over the past years and full compliance with the requirements as stipulated in the debt facilities, the Trustee-Manager is confident it can refinance such debt facilities when required. &bull The Trustee-Manager has carefully monitored and managed its cash flows. Management and operation reports are prepared and reviewed on a monthly basis and cash flow forecasts are prepared on a quarterly basis to project cash flow requirements of the Group using various general and operational assumptions.
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Merc85 Member	25-Dec-2016 18:51        Merc85 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	There is no any negative news for APPT but the share price has tank like no tomorrow. Mr Market may be passimistic due to high leverage and interest rate hike. But from cash-flow perspective, the trust is still OK. The Short Sell is about 25~50% of total volume for last couple of weeks. Some big boy may take this opportunity to short the stock and flush out the weak retail investors?      From APPT Q3 report: The Group believes that it has adequate working capital for its present requirements and that its existing debt facilities, together with cash and cash equivalents, will provide sufficient funds to satisfy its working capital requirements and anticipated capital expenditures and other payment obligations for the next 12 months, after taking into consideration the following factors: &bull The Group has five cable TV system operators, with their nine-year cable TV licences renewed in either 2008 or 2009, that serve approximately 761,000 cable TV subscribers as at 30 September 2016, with more than 100 channels of local and international content on its analogue and digital cable TV platforms in Taiwan. Hence, it is expected that the Group&rsquo s core business, i.e. cable TV system operators and their related businesses, will continue generating sufficient and stable cash inflows. This is consistent with the positive operating cash flows generated by the Group of $125.6 million for the nine months ended 30 September 2016 (year ended 31 December 2015: $168.5 million). &bull In view of the steady operating cash flows generated, good credibility over the past years and full compliance with the requirements as stipulated in the debt facilities, the Trustee-Manager is confident it can refinance such debt facilities when required. &bull The Trustee-Manager has carefully monitored and managed its cash flows. Management and operation reports are prepared and reviewed on a monthly basis and cash flow forecasts are prepared on a quarterly basis to project cash flow requirements of the Group using various general and operational assumptions.
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churnw Elite	25-Dec-2016 18:10        churnw About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Lim and tan seem able to trade cfd But I have not ask the broker yet
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maccer Master	25-Dec-2016 13:57        maccer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	sorry I should say not permit yo trade online by KE and if you want to trade you need to call your broker.
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maccer Master	25-Dec-2016 13:55        maccer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thank you for the details note of earlybird14. He brought up a very important iem on the BS, Intangible assets. I cut loss after holding this account for years right before dividen because I noted that after dividen the share price will drop further like before. FYI, this counter is not permit to trade by KE trading.....what I leanrt is the risk. So becareful. I lost quite a big some!
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churnw Elite	25-Dec-2016 13:35        churnw About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This counter definitely better than shipping trust ... Philip do not have any cfd for this counter, what about other brokerage house ? Anyone can advise
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churnw Elite	25-Dec-2016 13:19        churnw About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	At this current prices of 0.385 , dividend is at 17 % , If we divide by half of 8.5% It is still very good investment Can it compare with StarHub ... Cable tv.. Anyone can advise
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earlybird14 Supreme	25-Dec-2016 13:13        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Generally, This company is still profitable, but in reducing mode, I will wait till the profit margin and dividend payout in a right proportional before consider to buy, a healthy balance rate between DPu( dividend payout per unit and epu( earning per unit) shall stay below 90%, and epu shall stop falling for 2-3 quarter. Currently epu is 0.74 cents, DPu is 1.6, cents, with cash in bank 40 mio, there is no reason to maintain 1.6 cents payout rate in coming quarter. Share price will automatically adjust with the DPu rate in next coming quarter, so long as epu continue to fall, share price will adjust accordingly. This is typical not catching falling knife. earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 13:03) Posted: Never said never. Rickmer has fallen, danger who called to buy was the one argue with me 1 year ago about rickmer doom. Nobody is absolutely right or wrong, but lesson learn from stock market is critical. I have no insider news at all and it is not important since when rickmer fall, shareholders all holding because nobody will buy the junk share from them. For pay TV trust to fall still a long way to go, about 2-3 years if the balance sheet is continue since iPo. For the time being, just observe will do, cash only left 40 mio, dividend need to pay, interest need to pay, if you are vested, I think you should spend some time to check when their 1.2bil loan is required to refinance, U.S. Confirm raising rate to 2% next year, it will only give more problem to trust on refinancing. To upgrade need money and more loan, cost will be higher and nobody can guarantee if new system can improve or reduce profitability in a higher interest environment plus China funds cannot buy and Taiwan economic may sink further in next 4 year under Ming Jing party ruling. Too much negative prospect on this counter, for those plan to buy to think twice and those plan to hold to think too. Again bounce is expected, and I don't think it will cross 50, with the margin, dividend will cut another 50% to stay dividend payout for 6-8% in 2017 with around 35-45 cents. Revisit in 2nd half 2017 will also not to late to think to load since system upgrade or trusty manager to do something to turn over also take time to go. But if any negative news form in coming months, we can see further down. TMW1986      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 12:32) Posted: I don' t think APTV business model can be compared to shipping trust. Shipping trust is really bad since 2008-2009 when the shipping industry collapse.  I believe the intanglible asset is referring to the liscenses as there are high barriers to entry into the tv or broadband business in Taiwan etc. Not sure how much it worth but there definitely will be a significant value to it. Lastly, you got information about who is selling? Is it the main shareholders or trust managers of APTV? If yes, there should be news on SGX.
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earlybird14 Supreme	25-Dec-2016 13:03        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Never said never. Rickmer has fallen, danger who called to buy was the one argue with me 1 year ago about rickmer doom. Nobody is absolutely right or wrong, but lesson learn from stock market is critical. I have no insider news at all and it is not important since when rickmer fall, shareholders all holding because nobody will buy the junk share from them. For pay TV trust to fall still a long way to go, about 2-3 years if the balance sheet is continue since iPo. For the time being, just observe will do, cash only left 40 mio, dividend need to pay, interest need to pay, if you are vested, I think you should spend some time to check when their 1.2bil loan is required to refinance, U.S. Confirm raising rate to 2% next year, it will only give more problem to trust on refinancing. To upgrade need money and more loan, cost will be higher and nobody can guarantee if new system can improve or reduce profitability in a higher interest environment plus China funds cannot buy and Taiwan economic may sink further in next 4 year under Ming Jing party ruling. Too much negative prospect on this counter, for those plan to buy to think twice and those plan to hold to think too. Again bounce is expected, and I don't think it will cross 50, with the margin, dividend will cut another 50% to stay dividend payout for 6-8% in 2017 with around 35-45 cents. Revisit in 2nd half 2017 will also not to late to think to load since system upgrade or trusty manager to do something to turn over also take time to go. But if any negative news form in coming months, we can see further down. TMW1986      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 12:32) Posted: I don' t think APTV business model can be compared to shipping trust. Shipping trust is really bad since 2008-2009 when the shipping industry collapse.  I believe the intanglible asset is referring to the liscenses as there are high barriers to entry into the tv or broadband business in Taiwan etc. Not sure how much it worth but there definitely will be a significant value to it. Lastly, you got information about who is selling? Is it the main shareholders or trust managers of APTV? If yes, there should be news on SGX.   earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 12:07) Posted: The balance sheet is similar to shipping trust like rickmer maritime trust, pst and fst. Earn 1 cents, give 1.6 cents. Those case raised from bond or notes and iPod were used to pay dividend rather than the debt. Cash decrease year by year till notes or bonds approaching and face problem to repay and force to issue new rights share to dilute the share, till 1 day cannot issue dividend and then file default. The story has been repeating and keep telling us to stay away with unhealthy trust and don't be last one to run when greed with the dividend. Chart is oversold, bounce is expected but long term, this trust is another doom story after rickmer maritime. Temasek hold it is the only positive news but she only hold few percent which is not reason for them to take over a problem trust. Intangible assets are 2.3 bil vs real debt 1.23 bil. Intangible assets can be converted to cash is unknown but the debt is required to pay. Price drop with reason with insider knowledge. So, be careful with these stock. Those bet on oversold can expect a bounce but it may sink further before a bounce but after the bounce, better cash out and stay away with this counter
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TMW1986 Master	25-Dec-2016 12:32        TMW1986 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I don' t think APTV business model can be compared to shipping trust. Shipping trust is really bad since 2008-2009 when the shipping industry collapse.  I believe the intanglible asset is referring to the liscenses as there are high barriers to entry into the tv or broadband business in Taiwan etc. Not sure how much it worth but there definitely will be a significant value to it. Lastly, you got information about who is selling? Is it the main shareholders or trust managers of APTV? If yes, there should be news on SGX.   earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 12:07) Posted: The balance sheet is similar to shipping trust like rickmer maritime trust, pst and fst. Earn 1 cents, give 1.6 cents. Those case raised from bond or notes and iPod were used to pay dividend rather than the debt. Cash decrease year by year till notes or bonds approaching and face problem to repay and force to issue new rights share to dilute the share, till 1 day cannot issue dividend and then file default. The story has been repeating and keep telling us to stay away with unhealthy trust and don't be last one to run when greed with the dividend. Chart is oversold, bounce is expected but long term, this trust is another doom story after rickmer maritime. Temasek hold it is the only positive news but she only hold few percent which is not reason for them to take over a problem trust. Intangible assets are 2.3 bil vs real debt 1.23 bil. Intangible assets can be converted to cash is unknown but the debt is required to pay. Price drop with reason with insider knowledge. So, be careful with these stock. Those bet on oversold can expect a bounce but it may sink further before a bounce but after the bounce, better cash out and stay away with this counter. maccer      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 10:41) Posted: Looks at the balance sheet and anyone has any comment?
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nngeeh Veteran	25-Dec-2016 12:27        nngeeh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	For REITs, they can sell their properties that form most of their NAV to reduce the loan. For AAPT, their NAV is made up of intangible asset. They value the license as intangible asset which is valued at $2.3B. They can' t liquadate the license as they will need it to provide the service. For AAPT, just purely looking at price/ NAV or debt/ NAV doesn' t really mean anything as it is based on intangible asset that can' t be liquidated.  If they have completed   the infrastructure upgrade, it is still profitable.... but if their profit goes down, or interest rate goes up, or they can' t reserve enough their huge loan.... it could end up like what earlybird mentioned below. Don' t assume the dpu will stay the same.... unless their profit increases. earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 12:07) Posted: The balance sheet is similar to shipping trust like rickmer maritime trust, pst and fst. Earn 1 cents, give 1.6 cents. Those case raised from bond or notes and iPod were used to pay dividend rather than the debt. Cash decrease year by year till notes or bonds approaching and face problem to repay and force to issue new rights share to dilute the share, till 1 day cannot issue dividend and then file default. The story has been repeating and keep telling us to stay away with unhealthy trust and don't be last one to run when greed with the dividend. Chart is oversold, bounce is expected but long term, this trust is another doom story after rickmer maritime. Temasek hold it is the only positive news but she only hold few percent which is not reason for them to take over a problem trust. Intangible assets are 2.3 bil vs real debt 1.23 bil. Intangible assets can be converted to cash is unknown but the debt is required to pay. Price drop with reason with insider knowledge. So, be careful with these stock. Those bet on oversold can expect a bounce but it may sink further before a bounce but after the bounce, better cash out and stay away with this counter. maccer      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 10:41) Posted: Looks at the balance sheet and anyone has any comment?
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earlybird14 Supreme	25-Dec-2016 12:16        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Always bear in mind, the company business will still continue, buying the share doesn't mean you are holding the ownership of the company in fact the ownership is on creditor(borrower) hand till the day the debt is fully paid. Before the fully repayment, the trust is facing default risk, it is same principal when we buy a property, banks can default us and force sell our property when we can't serve the debt, main difference, we may get back some money after repaying the loan after force selling, but trust will normally raise cash through different method till shareholders values turn to zero before default. This is trust, do own due diligence when selecting a right trust, in fact majority of trust has history of raising money through right but some of them really over issued dividend payout and model has problem to be sustainable. earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 12:07) Posted: The balance sheet is similar to shipping trust like rickmer maritime trust, pst and fst. Earn 1 cents, give 1.6 cents. Those case raised from bond or notes and iPod were used to pay dividend rather than the debt. Cash decrease year by year till notes or bonds approaching and face problem to repay and force to issue new rights share to dilute the share, till 1 day cannot issue dividend and then file default. The story has been repeating and keep telling us to stay away with unhealthy trust and don't be last one to run when greed with the dividend. Chart is oversold, bounce is expected but long term, this trust is another doom story after rickmer maritime. Temasek hold it is the only positive news but she only hold few percent which is not reason for them to take over a problem trust. Intangible assets are 2.3 bil vs real debt 1.23 bil. Intangible assets can be converted to cash is unknown but the debt is required to pay. Price drop with reason with insider knowledge. So, be careful with these stock. Those bet on oversold can expect a bounce but it may sink further before a bounce but after the bounce, better cash out and stay away with this counter. maccer      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 10:41) Posted: Looks at the balance sheet and anyone has any comment?
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earlybird14 Supreme	25-Dec-2016 12:07        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The balance sheet is similar to shipping trust like rickmer maritime trust, pst and fst. Earn 1 cents, give 1.6 cents. Those case raised from bond or notes and iPod were used to pay dividend rather than the debt. Cash decrease year by year till notes or bonds approaching and face problem to repay and force to issue new rights share to dilute the share, till 1 day cannot issue dividend and then file default. The story has been repeating and keep telling us to stay away with unhealthy trust and don't be last one to run when greed with the dividend. Chart is oversold, bounce is expected but long term, this trust is another doom story after rickmer maritime. Temasek hold it is the only positive news but she only hold few percent which is not reason for them to take over a problem trust. Intangible assets are 2.3 bil vs real debt 1.23 bil. Intangible assets can be converted to cash is unknown but the debt is required to pay. Price drop with reason with insider knowledge. So, be careful with these stock. Those bet on oversold can expect a bounce but it may sink further before a bounce but after the bounce, better cash out and stay away with this counter. maccer      ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 10:41) Posted: Looks at the balance sheet and anyone has any comment?
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