Latest Forum Topics /
Vallianz
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Will it Break 10cents again???
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ticktock
Master |
14-Feb-2017 14:54
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Support has dried up perhaps people divided don' t over the results,if price drops below .02 cents then RI will be dragged further down maybe around May or after October this year. Don' t see any other possibilities of news that can push prices further up unless new big order or oil spiking above $55-60 levels.   |
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alexchew
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14-Feb-2017 14:52
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nice question.. probably financial engineers will have a better answer than the auditors. 
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kye_lin
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14-Feb-2017 14:48
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What is NAV price?
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RedEye1811
Master |
14-Feb-2017 14:34
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Held up well for a few days but with market taking a hit overall difficult to hold prior up move...sadly may not hold at 2.1c today..agree it perhaps a long-term investment chance...but let us see if can hold some of gains... |
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ticktock
Master |
14-Feb-2017 13:31
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this is a long term investment, in a year or two the share price can be around the NAV price. Only for those who can hold for that long. |
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sheerluck
Supreme |
14-Feb-2017 12:48
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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Haven' t really got a proper chiong already " laohon" ? |
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sheerluck
Supreme |
14-Feb-2017 00:03
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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Excellent!   You have used facts and figures to support your points.   So what do you think is the positive bits about this coy except for the facts that it is seens as " undervalue" in comparison to peers.   Any investment merits?   Why? And what are your concerns?
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RedEye1811
Master |
13-Feb-2017 23:44
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Not clear what you mean by line: " Finance cost is lower in the earning statement but the one in the cashflow statement tells a very different story." Where it states finance cost in determining the cash flow from operations the figure is same as in income statement. Thus, I can only interpret you mean the interest paid. The large interest paid in Q4/2016 is merely a catch up from prior quarters and is not evidence of finance cost increasing. If look at figures in table, finance cost recognized increase quarterly through 2014 but since Q1/2015 has been progressively falling. In constrast, interest paid quarterly is up and down, In Q1/2016 only around 2.5 million paid but over 5 million recognized as finance cost, then Q2/2016 5.7 million finance cost but only 199k interest paid, then in Q3/2016 finance cost 4.9 million and interest paid of just over 4 million. In Q4/2016 less finance cost recognized but high interest paid because needed to catch up with prior quarters. The payment terms for loans Vallianz have may require payment at select time (e.g., end of year) but due to accrual accounting finance cost recognized each quarter. So as can be seen in table finance cost definitely reducing particularly the 2nd half 2016. The timing of interest paid, however varied depending on loan requirements so large payment in Q4/2016 merely a mismatch between accrual accounting and cash accounting not a sign finance costs increased.  
   
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sheerluck
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13-Feb-2017 19:47
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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Nice job!   I wanted to see the results after external audit but they pushed it back three months.   Damn!   Wait and wait..... Indeed, now that vallianz is the net reciever, it doesn' t seems like there is any point for Swiber to participate in the rights.   But likelihood for recovering that US$10mil also very slim. Cash flow improve due to better trade receiveables recover mgmt as they claimed.   Lets see if they can keep it up for another 2-3 quarters. Finance cost is lower in the earning statement but the one in the cashflow statement tells a very different story.
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RedEye1811
Master |
13-Feb-2017 19:00
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If it as simple as having Swiber as a substantial shareholder then it should have fallen into ground by now...
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RedEye1811
Master |
13-Feb-2017 18:58
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I not waving the flag on Vallianz survival but not negative either...the Q4/2016 does offer some nice positives relative to some counterparts: (1) Still got a solid order book for a number of years by which time oil may truly have dug itself out of hole. Others either do not have contracts or contracts only of a few years. (2) Finance cost down considerably. If stay down - if not decline some more as part of notes payable paid in Q4/2016 would have been accounted for in that quarter but will not in future quarters - then bottom line can improve so earnings going forward may actually improve. Compared to majority of competitors that in red Vallianz already in black and if earnings got chance of improving then positive. (3) No more notes payable. Many competitors still going to have to deal with notes payable coming due in next year or so in addition to coupon payments. Now does not have worry of having to deal with noteholders like others. (4) Cash flow was very strong in quarter. If trend continues then be a nice step forward. Of course, there are negatives. But perhaps signs for survival budding and could get stronger. Hurdles yes, but perhaps not one to write off.
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Wind22i
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13-Feb-2017 18:44
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Since the parent is swiber..
Its very dangerous |
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zandlery
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13-Feb-2017 18:40
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Good point mention......as usual mixture of good and bad. If look pass Swiber relatiin to vallianz.....vallianz actually look like they are chances to survive this oil glut.........
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RedEye1811
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13-Feb-2017 17:57
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Deciding if Q4/2016 results good or bad for future is likely to be a matter of opinion. However, some food for thought: (1) Receivables from Swiber $97.5 million and payables to Swiber $87.3 million. Vallianz net receiver by $10.13 million, so will that keep Swiber JM away? (Though note quarterly report compared to Q3/2016 is a little confusing). (2)   Revenue attributable to Swiber $10.667 million. But receivables from Swiber as reported in Q3/2016 and Q4/2016? Does that imply Swiber now having to pay Vallianz in cash for work done? Seems like a red flag on inconsistency perhaps as would have possibly expected change in accounts receivable attributable to Swiber. (3) If strip out Swiber receivables and payables to Swiber, the current ratio not as good if included. Cause for concern? (4) Both receivables and payables appear to have been reduced in Q4/2016. Efforts to improve cash collection working? Will it continue in coming quarters? Seems good for this quarter but will it continue? (5) Free cash flow was surprising very good at (if got it right) $17 million. Again, is it a one off? Or a sign that efforts for cash conversion/management going to see further improvements in coming quarters? (6) Cash and cash equivalents appear sounder than may have expected with less reliance on Rawabi. Cash and cash equivalents at Q3/2016 stood at $37.373 million. To pay notes in November needed $43,272 million. Advances from Rawabi only $5 million but notes payable was paid out fully. And yet, at end of Q4/2016 cash and cash equivalent stood at $14.5 million. So able to pay off notes payable when due, took only a small extra advance from Rawabi and had quite bunch left over. And with the cash injection from Greatwill in February the cash and cash equivalent position likely to be stronger as it not included in this quarterly report. So cash position stronger than may expect given having to pay off notes and only taking a small advance. So improved cash conversion? Will it last? (7) Finance costs appear to be headed down quite a deal, and with no notes payable anymore some further reduction could be expected. If finance costs go down further then likely positive for bottomline. (8) JV and associate making losses so their value could a future drag if continues. (9) Profit that was attributable to owners in Q4/2016 was strong rather then in Q3/2016 when the profit came from minority interests. Will this trend continue? (10) In the report the management indicated that they would be conducting a review of asset values etc with following statement: " The Group is undertaking a review of these rightsizing  initiatives as well as assessing the value of its assets given the current market conditions. The outcome of these evaluations  may have an impact on the Group&rsquo s financial performance for the 15 months ending 31 March 2017, which is the new  financial year end." Appears they could be preparing people to expect a loss in next quarter due to impairments etc. So a point to be careful of. The Q4/2016 report appears to have good news and bad news with some lingering questionmarks. Just some observations for food for thought. Likely we come to different conclusions on pros/cons of points but interesting to ponder. |
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ticktock
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13-Feb-2017 16:51
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Swiber Payable-Receivable adjustment? 
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sheerluck
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13-Feb-2017 16:37
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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Vallianz reported another quarter of profitbale results (surprised?   since when they didn' t).   They are still recording revenue from the insolvent Swiber.   I suppose they rank higher compare to bank when Swiber finally close shop. Net profit with " revenue" from insolvent Swiber is US$4.7mil.   I suppose without the US$10.7mil  " revenue" from insolvent Swiber, net profit will still be US$4.7mil.   Mgmt must be feeling confident that they can recover those  " revenue" from the insolvent Swiber.   Not sure if external auditor feels the same about the  insolvent  Swiber.   But heck man, auditor no chance to check Vallianz account until March. Great man! Still got 1.5 month to hanky panky around. Greatwill has to be fast to execute their plan before external auditor come in to check account. Great cashflow from ops this quarter but overall still negative for the FY.   Not an issue for the coy share price. Results so wonderful still no chionging?   Market is very strange.   Maybe market haven' t warm up to Vallianz yet.
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ticktock
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13-Feb-2017 16:28
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Selling pressure building up at .023 looks like there will be some pull back. |
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alexchew
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13-Feb-2017 15:29
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is it possible that vallianz have no need for impairments? Just curious,  Resolute Offshore Pte Ltd, of which 77m as AFS is it recoverable since it is a swiber subsi.
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ticktock
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13-Feb-2017 15:10
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Recently Vallianz must have benefitted from situation at EZRA as the investors are looking for other stocks which are better shape and still near the bottom, just my thought that EZRA retail investors might see Vallianz as a better opportunity to recover their investment which was lost. |
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ticktock
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13-Feb-2017 14:57
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because of associate company which holds 1/4th of the company going for JM. Vallianz has just started emerging from that fall.
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