| Latest Forum Topics / Asian Pay TV Tr |
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Asian Pay Tv Tr
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nngeeh
Veteran |
20-Dec-2016 11:12
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Hi Pinkowl, I got the value from their 3rd Qtr report. You can look at their asset which value the license as $1.2B (intangible asset). Even though the operation cash flow is reflected as $42M, but is before tax, interest and amortisation. The amortisation of 12M (which is from the capex from previous qtr or last year (not sure)) $12M). This $12M is actually made up of equipment which in theory ...  not that easily to liquidate .... and if you really liquadate it,  you can only get back a fraction of the  purchase value.  If you deduct the amortisation, Tax interest and amortisation, and other minor cost, the profit is actually $10M. 
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GuavaXF30
Elite |
20-Dec-2016 10:50
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I agree with your strategy. This is not time to add. But it also may  not be neccessary to sell. On the other hand, for those not already exposed, present price may look attractive enough to start buying a  little. Just my own thinking.
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pinkowl
Supreme |
20-Dec-2016 10:42
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I' m not an expert in FA. Have recently re-read their financial statement, and interpret that they are able to service their interest from the stable earnings they receive (JeremyOw, did I interpret correctly? ). So my intention is to wait till they are done with the infrastructure layout and see if their results will improve. Maybe in 2017 or 2018.
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nngeeh
Veteran |
20-Dec-2016 10:29
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Thanks Pinkowl Beside the high capex, i' m worried about the high debt of 1.2B vs 48M cash on hand. Unlike REIT, the assets are made up of multiple properties which the company can liquidate individual property to reduce debb, the asset tha AAPT is made up mainly of the Taiwan license which they value it at $2.3B. They can' t liquidate the license. So ...their debt will going up, and the additional cash generated from profit is going back into the capex. They are also using the current cash, and loan to fund the capex (as profit is unable to cover) and dividend ... it' s not sustainable. If you look at China Fish, their main asset is the fishing license in Peru which is valued at more than $1B. When they ran into  cashflow problem, as they can' t liquidate the license .... they end up filling for chapter 11 (of cause, beside the debt problem, they also  were under CAD investigation). Maybe we can start looking after 2017 when their capex is going down ... and below the profit. We' ll also need to  know how they plan to  reduce the  $1.2B debt. 
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pinkowl
Supreme |
20-Dec-2016 10:15
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At the rate it' s dropping, dividend not sufficient to cover capital loss. I will wait for trend to reverse before loading more. 
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jeremyow
Master |
20-Dec-2016 10:15
Yells: "Passionate business investor" |
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Hi nngeeh, thanks for your comments on using cashflows from financing which may not give us a good picture of the sustainability of the company to continue to perform. This is due to any cash that comes in from getting loans which is reflected under cashflow from financing section. Thus, even if the cashflow statement shows a final net positive cash and cash equivalents, it may not necessary mean the company has the means to sustain its amount of dividends through the years. In this case, your valid concern is whether the company can continue to sustain the current amount of its dividends. There are many ways I believe to go about assessing whether a company can sustain its current amount of dividends. If we just use one way to look at the issue, we may not get a conclusive picture. Your comment on not using the cashflow from financing zooms in to only considering cashflows from operations minus capex (which is under cashflows from investing) to arrive at the left over cashflows after subtracting capex. The left over amount of cashflows then can be compared against the amount of dividends to see if the left over cashflows can be more than the amount of dividends to be paid so as to assess the sustainability of paying out the dividends.  However, every method may have its shortfall thus I always will not depend on using one way only and then make a conclusion of the matter by only looking at one way only. The zoom in method of only using cashflows from operations to subtract capex to arrive at a left over remaining cashflows may not take into account other needed movement of the cash such as to fulfill interest and finance costs under the cashflows from financing. There may be other odd items in the case of Asian Pay TV Trust under cashflows from financing that the Trust may need to settle resulting in cash-outflows. Thus, my earlier sharing is another way which is a zoom out way to consider all the cashflows of the Trust from operations, investing and financing. In doing so, we need to be careful not to just look at only one quarter' s financial results and then arrive at our conlusion which also may not be ideal. I have looked at the Trust' s past few years including up to latest 9M financial results to get a more accurate picture of what is happening in terms of the movements of cash in the Trust. That is why I noticed if one looks at the zoom out view which would have considered all the movements of cash, there is always a net decrease in the cash and cash equivalents every year. This shows that cash is definitely draining/ flowing out of the Trust over the past few years until most recently. I have also looked at the zoom in view as mentioned earlier above to investigate the amount of cashflows from operations versus capex under cashflows from investing and also arrived at a more clearer picture that the capex is too high such that the cashflows from operations after deducting capex has not much amount of remaining cashflows to pay the dividends. Interestingly, the worry whether any borrowings reflected under cashflows from financing can make the net cash and cash equivalents at the end of the cashflows statement increase which gives a false picture that the company is not seeing much money flow in from its operations (which should be the main emphasis) but instead from borrowings is not a big thing for this Trust. This is because I noticed even with huge amount of borrowings the Trust has undertaken at any time, it is used to offset the loans it carried. So, the amount of cash-inflows from borrowings is almost negated due to using the borrowings to repay its loans. Thus, a zoom out view is still ok to reflect the net decrease in cash and cash equivalents of the Trust every year. I have also looked at the accumulated deficit on its balance sheet to see a similar picture of the amount of dividends paid out over the years have exceeded the amount of profits the Trust has made thus this again confirms that if the Trust continues like this, probably it may have problems in sustaining its current amount of dividends. Thank you. 
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pinkowl
Supreme |
20-Dec-2016 10:14
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Yes, your analysis is in line with the actual development. Very good work since you probably didn' t know the history. Thanks for your generous sharing. 
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GuavaXF30
Elite |
20-Dec-2016 09:50
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Thanks Jeremyow for this very detailed explanation.  It' s very helpful for the uninitiated. What will be interesting is how long APTT can maintain their dividend payments without going to the market or banks for more cash. If they can do this without additional funding, the price may shoot up quite fast. After all, where else can you get such high dividend payout these days ?
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jeremyow
Master |
20-Dec-2016 09:46
Yells: "Passionate business investor" |
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Thanks pinkowl for the updated news of the company. It will tie in with our assessment of its financials to give a much clearer picture what the company is now undergoing. I have also read about the current high capex of Asian Pay TV Trust which will last until 2017. Thus, we know high capex has been an ongoing concern. Thanks again. 
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pinkowl
Supreme |
20-Dec-2016 00:36
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Guys, APTT price started plunging when Taiwan announced the compulsory requirement for industry to upgrade to digital TV. Hence, they have increased their expenditure significantly on infrastructure. The upgrade (if i remember correctly) will take place till 2017. Separately, they are awaiting for content approval before implementing expansion to Taichung (or something like that). =) U can visit their website to read up more.   |
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nngeeh
Veteran |
20-Dec-2016 00:14
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Hi Jeremyow, Thanks for the explanation. Actually, if we look at just net cash flow, it may not gives a good picture too. The company could be getting fund via loan (Financial Cash Flow), and due to the loan, its reflecting positive net cash flow. This is not a good reflection of the health of the company even though it' s showing positive net cash flow. Their 3Q reports Operating Cash Flow - 42M Investment cash flow - (19M) capex which mainly made up of equipment Financial - 26M (Partly due to additional loan) Net cash flow is (4M) If you look into the operating cash flow, it' s actually made up of profit of 10M (but add back the tax, amortisation (capex cost fm last Q), interest,etc)... it seems that whatever cash that comes from the profit will go back into capital expenditure, and dividend). Their loan has increased from $1183M (31 Dec 2015) to $1231M (30 Sep 2016). As You have mentioned, the cash has also decreased. Until I see that their capex is less than the actual profit after deducting tax, interest.... I will stay on the sideline first.   |
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jeremyow
Master |
19-Dec-2016 21:17
Yells: "Passionate business investor" |
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Hi nngeeh, we do not compare profit directly with cashflows. Profit is a reported non-cash item on the profit and loss statement and does not represent the company has received that amount of profits in real hard cash. This is a common misunderstanding by many people who see profit directly as real physical cash the company has obtained.  The actual real movement of physical hard cash is shown in the cashflows statement. That is why the profit and loss statement is the easiest to be subjected to accounting manipulation and possible frauding in some cases since it is difficult to audit the profits as there is no physical cash to count here. Everything is recorded in the book-keeping records of transactions related to sales and all these records may also be manipulated since no physical cash to count and ascertain every transaction is as true as recorded and signed by all parties involved.   However, it does not mean profit and loss statement is not relevant and not important. Most companies are not fraud cases so we can assume their financial statements should be as true as there is still regular auditing and checking of accounts.  All three financial statements have their own importance and use in the way we interpret a company' s profitability (which is shown by profit and loss statement), snapshot of a company' s financial health (which is shown by balance sheet statement) and finally a company' s ability to continue to perform which is its lifeblood (shown by cashflows statement that tracks real the amount of physical cash that has moved in and out of a company).  For Asian Pay TV Trust, if we look at its cashflows statement, its net cash and cash equivalents at the end of the statement has always been a decrease for the past close to 3 years since 2013 until latest 9 months financial results. It started off with around $96 million in cash and cash equivalents in 2013. And every year from 2013, there is always a net decrease in its cash and cash equivalents from its cashflows statements. The latest amount of cash and cash equivalents it has is about $48 million. If you ask me, it is pretty obvious that 50% of the Trust' s initial $96 million in cash and cash equivalents in year 2013 has decreased to $48 million as of current latest financial results which is like half of its initial amount of cash and cash equivalents have flowed/ drained out from the Trust over a period of close to 3 years.  The net increase or decrease in cash and cash equivalents is a net off from all its cashflows from operating activities, investing activities and financing activities. Thus, the Trust seems to be seeing cash outflows over the past close to three years. If it does not improve over this current net cash-outflow situation and return to positive net cash-inflow, it is just a matter of time that the Trust has to reduce its cash outflows such as reducing dividends or increase borrowings to pay its dividends if it still wants to keep up the same amount of dividends paid and also maintain its current operations. If we look at the Trust' s balance sheet, we see a similar story there. If we look under the section on equity in its balance sheet, we see an item accumulated deficit there which the amount is around $181 million. What accumulated deficit means is that the company has either paid out more dividends and/or generated more net losses than net profits over the life of its business. If we follow the Trust' s past three years financial performance, it has not made any net losses yet, thus the total amount of dividends it has paid out is certainly more than the net profits it has generated over the past close to three years. Interestingly, if we compare the accumulated deficit amount in its latest balance sheet statement with the previous year' s amount, it has increased and not decreased. This again confirms the story that cash has been definitely draining/ flowing out of the Trust.  Thus, the cashflows statement, balance sheet statement and profit and loss statement used together will help one see a clearer picture/ story of what is currently happening about the company. In this case, it seems cash has been draining/ flowing out of the Trust but yet it can still continue to remain profitable. Does that mean one should bail out of the Trust now? It really depends also on how much one knows about the Trust what are its current plans and future plans? If things change in future due to certain actions undertaken by the Trust, then the Trust could also easily return back to a net cash-inflow position.  For me, I do not know about the Trust' s businesses and plans. What I see here is only a limited part of the story taken from its financial statements. It is always best to know as much as possible about a company to have a complete unbiased and objective view and financial statements only tell part of the story and often is an outdated story since financial statements always come after a company has completed all its business activities for the reporting period.      
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nngeeh
Veteran |
19-Dec-2016 18:24
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Can anyone help to confirm if my understanding of their 3Q result is correct? Profit after Amortisation, Interest, income tax - $10.6M Capex (under Invest activities for purchase equipment, plant) - $19.8M Even though they have $10.6M profit, but they will still need to spend around $20M for capex. When i look at their " Financial activities" , it seems that the distribution for dividend is around $23M. So, i wonder who do they generate additional cash for dividend? Under cash financial ... repayment of borrowing is $124M,, but borrowings is around $137M. It seems that they are borrowing more than they are returning. As long as their capex spending is high .... in long run, i' m don' t think they can maintain such high yield. Please correct if my understanding is wrong. Thanks   |
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churnw
Elite |
19-Dec-2016 16:02
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Pls look into this counter , very attractive ..... | ||||
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churnw
Elite |
19-Dec-2016 14:25
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Lelong Lelong
Christmas sale....... Xxxx |
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churnw
Elite |
18-Dec-2016 18:52
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Hi trade nob,
My finding is that China people cannot hold this counter . Political issue as this is a tawian business . This give us opportunity to hold this counter at a low . |
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bishan22
Supreme |
17-Dec-2016 15:07
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Sis halle, aik sai lah... copy and paste address to new window...read a bit.. loh loh soh soh...me oso want to know can fly next week boh....
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halleluyah
Supreme |
17-Dec-2016 14:09
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Bro bishan, cannot open...it tok simi ? Gt chance to fly up boh??
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bishan22
Supreme |
17-Dec-2016 13:19
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Good or bad.... any way div payable on 24 Dec.... can buy some gifts for self reward.....
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GreatHarvest
Member |
17-Dec-2016 11:36
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http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/10/06/2003656625/1 |
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