The reason behind sustained buying interest in the face of record-high prices is quite straightforward. Contrary to what some might assume, this momentum isn' t driven by retail investors, who are largely sidelined. Instead, the market is being propelled by  institutional funds  and  big money investors.
 

The Shift Toward Stability
Recent geopolitical shifts have fundamentally altered global wealth flows. Historically, the Middle East was viewed as a primary sanctuary for capital however, escalating regional conflicts have eroded its reputation as a " safe haven." Wealth advisors report that high-net-worth individuals ~ particularly Asian entrepreneurs previously based in Dubai~ are increasingly migrating their assets to  Singapore  and  Hong Kong  to escape Gulf-related uncertainties. 
 

It isn' t just Middle Eastern capital on the move. Europe is seeing a " wealth exit" triggered by aggressive tax reforms, particularly in the UK, where changes to non-domiciled status and capital gains taxes have pushed the affluent to look elsewhere. While some remain within Europe (moving to Italy or Switzerland), Singapore remains a premier global choice due to its  territorial tax system  and the absence of  estate duties. 
 

FY2026 could post a larger-than-expected drop in earnings due to downside risks, says CGSI

 

[SINGAPORE] CGS International (CGSI) has downgraded its call on DBS to &ldquo hold&rdquo from &ldquo add&rdquo , citing forecasts of a &ldquo muted&rdquo performance for the fourth quarter of 2025 and limited upside potential. 

 

Its target price for the bank remained unchanged at S$60.50 &ndash 2.3 per cent above its latest closing price of S$59.12 on Friday (Jan 16). 

 

With valuations at an all-time high, a potential &ldquo lack of earnings growth&rdquo for FY2025 to FY2027 could limit upside potential, said CGSI analyst Tay Wee Kuang in a report on Friday. He noted that DBS&rsquo share price is up 35 per cent since the start of FY2025.  

 

&ldquo On top of a seasonally weaker quarter that would affect flow-related income such as wealth management fees, markets&rsquo trading income and treasury customer sales, we expect DBS&rsquo net interest margin (NIM) to decline (by around) five basis points quarter on quarter in Q4 2025,&rdquo said Tay. 

 

This follows a 28 basis point decline in the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (Sora) to an average of 1.16 per cent in Q4 2025 from 1.44 per cent in Q3 2025, said Tay. 

 

Several downside risks could lead to a larger-than-expected decline in earnings for FY2026, he noted. 

 

These include a potentially lower-than-expected net interest income for FY2026, due to a decline in NIM amid Sora weakness, weaker macroeconomic conditions resulting in higher provisioning, and a slowdown in non-interest income growth. 

 

Wealth management fee growth, potential recovery of exposure to Autobahn

Despite muted forecasts, DBS still offers an &ldquo attractive&rdquo yield of around 5.6 per cent for FY2026, with a forecast dividend per share of S$3.30 for the same period, said Tay. 

 

Capital return initiatives could enhance yield attractiveness, he said, noting that an outstanding S$2.6 billion in capital has been allocated for DBS&rsquo S$3 billion three-year share buyback programme. 

 

The Autobahn group, which includes car-sharing service Shariot, has debts of more than S$300 million. 

Autobahn group fallout tightens private-hire car financing, but COE premiums unlikely to fall

The bank&rsquo s wealth management segment could record further growth in its assets under management (AUM) for Q4 2025, following the segment&rsquo s 18 per cent year-on-year AUM growth for the first nine months of 2025. 

 

This could support its guidance for wealth management fees to grow by a mid-teens percentage in FY2026, said Tay. 

 

Potential increases in credit costs for Q4 2025 as a result of its loan exposure to the indebted car leasing company Autobahn could be buffered by a write-back of DBS&rsquo management overlay which stood at around S$2.5 billion for the first nine months of 2025, said Tay. DBS&rsquo loan exposure to Autobahn is around S$102.6 million. 

 

&ldquo The withdrawal of Autobahn&rsquo s appeal for creditor protection means that creditors&rsquo claims or writs of seizure and sale of Autobahn&rsquo s fleet of vehicles may proceed, potentially allowing DBS to recoup part of its exposure to Autobahn,&rdquo he said.