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F & N
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luminol
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29-Dec-2013 00:43
Yells: "Correlation does not imply causation." |
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Nice song... Very nostalgic of my childhood. lol
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MetalTrader
Master |
29-Dec-2013 00:41
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Updated of a clearer & shorter version F& N prediction of Event Unfolding before it happens: 11 Nov- F& N closed at $5.77. I forecasted that market default doesn't affect anything. As more bondholders resist, the more attractive F& N stock appears to shareholders. Because of the switch acquisition by Charoen, he unlocked the profitability in the F & N and distributed to all shareholders. [At this point, a lot people feared if F& N will default?] 14 Nov- I reemphasized that I can't find a better person than Charoen. Profits are shared. Look at VardHolding, & its a different case. After acquisition, no dividend. 16 Nov- I debated with Teeth53 & provided valuable information. One of the biggest shareholder, Charoen, is just restructuring its debts due to paid at $9.50 at the price when buying F & N shares. The issuance of 2 FCL shares per F& N share, is to increase Charoen value & thereby also increasing shareholders value.Bondholders resistance will be little of significant as 100% of all shareholders passed meeting of issuing 2 FCL per F& N share. (2 Days Later from my 11 Nov Prediction) Do you think 2 FCL + 1 F& N share will be less or more than current price? (I give hints but nobody took it seriously) Despite several persistence by Teeth53, I reanswered: The market only holds % lower than biggest shareholders. Majority% still lies in biggest shareholders. If vested players, consist of minor shareholding % battling out, while future value being unlocked is imminent. Who will benefit most? Teeth53 argued on the debt restricting, I answered: Debt restructure is the debt F& N boss loaned to buy. The basic structure of beverage, property, printing remains intact and is profitable. The bone you talking about is the spliting of FCL, while the meat remains intact (FCL & Beverage + Printing) at shareholders hands. As FCL + F& N still belongs to shareholders. It only undermine bondholders. Overall, value unlocked means profitability to F& N boss and Shareholders. Teeth53 questioned another volatile in play?, I answered: The market will not be a deciding factor. The F& N boss's decision will. The value of F& N is going to be unlocked, and the future prospect will depend on how majority of F& N biggest boss and majority of FCL biggest boss manage their business. F& N will probably try restructure bondholders by paying them $$$ and discontinue loan (Prediction before happen), thus reducing company loans. In share, majority of shareholders have biggest say but not bondholders. Teeth53 reargued that " ThaiBev (Y92.SG) and TCC Assets, with a combined 90.3% (F& N stake), have until July 19 to restore the free float." I answered: Because the Combined % from largest amounted to 90.3%, the biggest beneficial will be ThaiBev and TCC Assets. The next will be remaining 9.7% of market will still benefit. Strategic review is meant for future operating, and Unlocking value likely to happen in near-term.(Accurately predict Unlocking Value before it happen) Teeth53 reargued that Myanmar military issue & Disposal of APB issue, I reanswered: If NAV is $8.80, why do largest shareholder buy at $9.50? If largest shareholder do not have confident business in F& N's benefits will cover $9.50, he wouldn't be buying. So at even the current price of $5.80, you are still buying lesser than the largest shareholder. (Accurately predict F& N rising Value before it happen) If largest shareholder have nothing to fear, why should minor shareholder fear? The theory is simple, the largest shareholder combined percentage hit 90%. Do you think the remaining 10% will affect the outcome? The profitability depends on largest shareholder's decision, and it will be imminent unlocking of value 2 FCL begins before public buying take place. (Accurately predict when F& N buying take place before it happen) 17 Nov- I reemphasized that: This battle is not player vs player, as merely 10%. Its a battle Combined 2 Shareholders (90%) taking steps to improve their value, & unlocking further potential to benefit them (they are biggest beneficial), thereby also benefiting the small shareholders (10%) BondHolders are merely lending money, Shareholders got enough fund from retained earning to give them back. If you are not aware, Cash Earning is almost 1 billion a year. For 2014 dividend of 0.12, approximately 2 billion had been for forkout from retained earning to distribute to shareholder. Teeth, as you refused the truth that giving of 2FCL, but it will be imminent. (Accurately predict 2FCL issuing will be imminent before it happens) Mr. Charoen intends to reduce his stake to a range to 88%, from 90.3% currently. (Accurately predict reduction Charoen will reduce stake to 88%) To comply with SGX rule for listing FCL in which 12% must be obtained in the hands of public. So situation now is Public: 9.7% Buyer-Charoen sold to: 2.3% Mr Charoen: 88% http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304799404579152810197413736 Fraser and Neave is looking to buy back or redeem S$808.25 million worth of bonds. (Event of BondBuying intention was announced which was predicted previously) http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/f-n-bondholders-face/884288.html The consent exercise for F& N bondholders ends on Tuesday, and there are six bonds the company wants to redeem. If bondholders fail to approve the spin-off and the company proceeds with it, this would trigger a technical default and allow creditors to demand immediate repayment of the bonds at par value. The situation is also complicated as there are six different tranches of bonds at stake My Opinion: BondHolder issue can be resolved by $$$. (I firmly hold my prediction) Whether or not BondHolder approve, F& N can proceed by redeeming back the bonds by payment back immediately. BondHolder can delay the listing of 2 FCL, but cannot impact the outcome. (I predicted the future) Ultimately, if bondholders disagree. BondHolder can sue, but F& N can buy back bonds at par value. In the end, it won't do BondHolder good, as interest is missed out. Currently, the stock of F& N is precious as only 9.7% is owned by public. This determines only small % of people will benefit from this spinoff, however it is not impossible for those who have position in F& N. (I predicted who will benefits from F& N spinoff) My prediction is that those who buy F& N, will gain sustain benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins. 1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value is certainly to be more than $6. (I predicted the future value) FYI: $6 is only a minimum line. I already have the value of 1 F& N + 2 FCL in mind. I will not speak off, as it up to different people holding 1 F& N & 2 FCL to decide, at what time is best and most appropriate to sell. It can stretch way further than $6, depends on how you strategize these 3 stocks @ what time. Kindly note all my information is used as reference, & not to be used in anybody buy or sell. He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public. Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm. (I give assurance before announcement was made on 12 Dec) 18 Nov- There is one other point worth noting: The revelation by F& N chairman Lee Hsien Yang, together with board members Timothy Chia, Tan Chong Meng and Nicky Tan, that they plan to hold onto their shares unless Charoen?s offer turns unconditional. All these suggest that even at S$8.88 a share, there may still be value to be unlocked in F& N shares. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/More-value-to-be-unlocked-in-F& N-shares-30192217.html 1 Dec- FYI: 100%-12%= 88% (Maximum he can hold) His total state 90.3% to 88% (Difference 2.3%) He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public. Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm. (I re-give assurance before announcement was made on 12 Dec) Out of 5 bondholders, only 2 bondholders opposed. On 29 Nov, a re-meeting is scheduled & F& N fully paid the 2 bondholders with interests. So now, bond issue are resolved on 29 Nov.(Prediction of Future Event Actualized) 4 Dec- i foresee huge room for F& N share price to grow..(Prediction of Future Share Price Growth) - The 2 FCL waiting to be released - The 2014 dividend waiting to be released - Hospital Trusts waiting to be released The decision of biggest shareholders will be a key to F& N share price. 6 Dec- Hospital Trust would be in 2014 onward, as details haven't been covered by largest shareholder yet. This will most likely add value to the earnings of F& N. If to give to shareholder, it is up to largest shareholder's decision. 11 Dec- F& N destiny depends on biggest shareholder decision. Unlocking of 2 FCL should be expedited to serve shareholders well. (Prediction of 2FCL to be expedited before it happen for best value) 12 Dec- The biggest shareholder, CHAROEN, had finally reduced total share to 87.93%, allowing 12% public float for the listing of 2 FCL. It is wise that 2 FCL be as fast as possible to implement to create the best, & highest profit valuation of F& N + 2 FCL. It is best to be implemented within 1 week from today.(Prediction of best valuation but largest shareholder was a bit later) 14 Dec- It is best the largest shareholder announce the implementation 2 FCL swiftly. Any delay will affect the overall valuation & Any swift implementation will bring the overall valuation to the best valuation. 18 Dec- F& N overall valuation continues to lie in the hands of largest shareholder. There is hesitation as well as a need to implement release of 2 FCL- Duration of implementation will affect overall valuation. There is a possible trend of slowly recovering F& N price. I continue to maintain my forecast of the value of 1 F& N + 2 FCL = $6/ Higher. Thus, F& N price remains a fairly attractive price. Among all the big cap stocks, F& N remains well positioned in market & is fairly solid with future potential value untapped. 24 Dec- It will be actualized soon. $6 is minimum as predicted, while the maximum is unknown. As forecasted, & its potential is waiting to be shown. F& N remains the best among all big cap stocks. Market closed at $5.97 My prediction (17 Nov)- Those who buy F& N, will gain sustain benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins. 1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value is certainly to be more than $6. 26 Dec Closing- F& N closed at $6.20 27 Dec before market open- I forecasted F& N share price to rise higher 27 Dec Closing- F& N closed at $6.38 28 Dec- I forecast on 30 Dec- many people will have mixed view & take different position. So, Each to his own. Certainly, my view is hold. There may be fall or rise of F& N price. I revealed the ultimate prediction: - 2FCL must keep The value of $1 each, is not a fixed price, & will rise very hugely in future - At end will have 2 FCL (with rising value) + 1 F& N - After having 2 FCL, each will have to decide if to keep F& N. --> As further events of $0.45 (dividends) to be announced + $0.12 (dividends) on Feb. --> Will biggest shareholders unlock more profits? [Hospital Trust and how it will boost F& N business] --> For those that trust biggest shareholder business ability- its best to hold For those that don't trust biggest shareholder business ability- its best to sell For those that follow through this set of F& N ultimate prediction, you are on the safe track. As the ultimate prediction are revealed. BET with Wang Si Tong (Valid on Monday only- 30/12/2013) Next, i have a bet with Wang Si Tong on Monday 30th Dec 2013 result- F& N may even rise & even if drop will not drop much. (Likely near $6 range) I quoted 3 times above his " so called Nav" [More than 3x of Wang Si Tong NAV $1.695]= $5 - $6.20 range/ higher I indicated Wang Si Tong calculation NAV result for monday is wrong, & Wang Si Tong made a big mistake by selling F& N for some profits. 2FCL benefits- he will miss out 2014 benefits- depends on individual decision [Dividends + Possibility of Take Over will benefit shareholder further (if it happens) ] If my bet against Wang Si Tong failed- I will personally delete " Metal Trader" and not to give any prediction from Monday. If i win, Wang Si Tong will realize he will know he had made a big mistake. |
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banana
Member |
29-Dec-2013 00:21
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Keep my goose and sell my eggs
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nea03177
Senior |
29-Dec-2013 00:08
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If you lose, it means we Huat lor!
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nea03177
Senior |
29-Dec-2013 00:07
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If I am vested, and I do not know FCL will be trading on 9 Jan 2014, then I am 'Kooning' . Remember I am the one who first posted on capital reduction of 42 cents. Cannot be I don't know when it is going to trade.
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MetalTrader
Master |
28-Dec-2013 23:59
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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My bet with you will valid for Monday only. After Monday, you will know what mistake you made. As i said if you win- i will personally delete " Metal Trader" and not to give any prediction from Monday. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SdY3enjAmg& list=FLIGZIWveB2xf_-PhUBfo0Mg This is a good song :) |
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MetalTrader
Master |
28-Dec-2013 23:53
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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If you win, i will personally delete " Metal Trader" and not to give any prediction from Monday.
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MetalTrader
Master |
28-Dec-2013 23:51
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Dear Wan Si Tong, as my post previously- you made a Big Mistake by selling F& N for some profits. I personally quote 3 times higher than your " so called NAV" . My advise is still: Hold 2FCL benefits- you will miss out 2014 benefits- depends on individual decision [Dividends + Possibility of Take Over will benefit shareholder further (if it happens) ] Monday- you will see the result. |
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
28-Dec-2013 23:48
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If I win got any prize ?
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
28-Dec-2013 23:46
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FCL expected to be listed on 9 Jan
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MetalTrader
Master |
28-Dec-2013 23:40
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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This i will not reveal. I know the reason, but won't point up for this. Anyway, whether if there is takeover- F& N share price will be well positioned in stock market. The future shall not be revealed :)
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nea03177
Senior |
28-Dec-2013 23:34
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Why talk about IPO? When no money will be taken from the market. It's a free distribution to F&N shareholders. Monday will know the result.
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MetalTrader
Master |
28-Dec-2013 23:33
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Since then, i will have a bet with you. NAV of F& N will remain high due to future 2014 untapped value & sold business, + potential of takeover. More than 3x of your NAV $1.695= $5 - $6.20 range/ higher It may even moved upward, but even if fall will not be much. I wil quote 3 times or more higher than your so called NAV (for Monday Result) As i said, you undermined F& N NAV. Your calculation of NAV is wrong anyway- it is not per share NAV. I never do any calculation, just quote 3x higher than you. If anything fall more than 3x of your " so called NAV" , i win. If it rise higher on Monday, i win. Note: i quote 3x higher than you for Monday Result. Anything below 3 times of your " so called NAV" - you win. I will let you by giving you 3 times of your " so called NAV" . Though its likely to remain near $6 range.
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
28-Dec-2013 23:21
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I did not predict the FCL market value....I just provide NAV of FN & FCL for reference......Huat arh
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nea03177
Senior |
28-Dec-2013 23:21
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Sir, I did not have that in mind when I talk about the tassle. It was just a reflection of what happened then. I doubt the 88% major shareholder will want to take it private. He has his reasons to retain it's listing. This wise man will use F&N for his THBev, TCC Assets and all his business enterprises to derive the greatest benefit. If delisted, it is of no use to him. Why reduce to 88%, when he could CA the balance when he hit 90 over %. To remain status quo is the game.
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
28-Dec-2013 23:18
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Based on the recent IPO listing, their IPO px are quite close to the NAV: OUE HT : NAV : 91c IPO Px : 88c SPH Reit : NAV : 89c IPO Px : 90c So coming Monday............ F& N's veil will be half lifted............ Let see what will be the after DIS px as compared to the NAV of $1.695 |
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nea03177
Senior |
28-Dec-2013 23:13
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Mr Wan- You are not wrong in using the info, provided by F&N. However, I would like to suggest you study Triyards case when it was listed by way of dividend in specie by Ezra. In Ezra's EGM to approve the spin off and in all documents issued by Ezra, we were told Triyards is 60 cents. But look at the trading on first day, it hit a high of 92 cents, 50% more than the supposed value of the dividend in specie. So, I cannot agree with your calculation. The market will decide FCL's value
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MetalTrader
Master |
28-Dec-2013 23:12
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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This group of data will fail because NAV is millions, not per share NAV. Read carefully as i always say. Before the DIS and the Capital Reduction: 8,507 Millions. I will not calculate for you. My 2nd set of Ultimate Prediction will be unveiled in near future. Another thing to note: Share moved unpredictably, you are undermining F& N value by stating using data based on Millions. There is still a long way for you to go, because you failed to include the potential of future FCL value by selling it too early.
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
28-Dec-2013 23:04
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F& N NAV per share based on the Pro Forma Financial Info provided by F& N dated 26/12/13 : Before the DIS and the Capital Reduction : $ 5.90 After the DIS : $1.695 After the DIS and the Capital Reduction of 42c : $ 1.275 DIS : Distribution in specie of Frasers Centrepoint Limited (" FCL" ) shares Hence, 1 FCL NAV = 5.90-1.695/2 = $ 2.10 *************************************************************************** PRO FORMA FINANCIAL EFFECTS OF THE CAPITAL REDUCTION 1. Assumptions. The pro forma financial effects of the Capital Reduction on the net asset value (" NAV" ) of the F& N Group, the share capital of the F& N Group and the leverage ratios of the F& N Group have been prepared based on the unaudited consolidated financial statements of the F& N Group for the financial period ended 30 September 2013 (" FY2013" ). The pro forma financial effects are purely for illustration purposes only and do not reflect the actual financial position of the F& N Group after the Capital Reduction. As the DIS has not been completed, the pro forma financial effects for FY2013 have been prepared on the assumption that the DIS and the Capital Reduction was completed on 30 September 2013.
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Capital_Reduction-26.12.13.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=268972 (SGX Announcement 00068 dd 26/12/13) |
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MetalTrader
Master |
28-Dec-2013 22:56
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Finally, you discover another point which is part of my end prediction too. In event if a takeover of F& N begins, F& N share price will be pushed up and rise. Judging from 88% held by largest shareholder, it remains possible.
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