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JesseTyler Veteran	27-Jul-2016 12:51        JesseTyler About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This is a sure earn money deal, buy at 1.63 delist at 1.68. I am dumping in all my funds into this to go for " YES"   sun233      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 11:19) Posted: I agree with your reasoning. It' s happening now........ sgng123      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 10:38) Posted: Wait a few weeks then bb would pull this down to accumulate more to secure the delist offer. Temasek and smrt directors not allowed to vote so burden to make this a success fall to the bb. To accumulate in open market without buying above premium, they would short it down to create panic then scoop up willing sellers then cover their short before meeting. 75% needed or 35% of the total 46% need to vote yes assuming everyone go to meeting or send their proxy letter. This is a DO rather than GO which is easier.
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sgng123 Supreme	27-Jul-2016 12:42        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Reason is simple temasek is offering 1.68 if the delist get 75%, bb got lower price entry than most retail players. They made 30% profit on 1.68 offer while small retail and cpf lost 15 to 30%. Easy and guarantee profit everyone want, now just need to secure enough vote to make it a go. Best way is through open market purchase by pressuring weak holders and trapping short. Just need 500mil SMRT then u get the money from temasek, once 75% every investors is forced sell lol.
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lionhill Veteran	27-Jul-2016 12:33        lionhill About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	why are you so sure that BBs want to make it GO? sgng123      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 10:49) Posted: But again compare with risk post us election, smrt might be the safest bet as retail investors tend to support deal if economy is damn bad. But again bb need to accumulate   enough to make this one 100% guaranteed. 3q for sg companies might look horrible with more bad time ahead due to overvalued us stocks and brexit headwind.
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JTWKSG Member	27-Jul-2016 12:18        JTWKSG About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	GoldNugget  Master Posted: 24-Jul-2016 22:54   x 0    x 0 one more point to add .... TH do make money losing business ... look at NOL ... national serivice to sell at discount to CMA ...    Why do you think TH sold NOL  instead of buying over the rest of shareholders' shares since their NOL share holding was higher at around 66%? They are a profit driven investment company not charity organisation. Just like  when you buy shares, you only buy when  you see prospects and bright spots especially so if you take a long horizon. Similarly, when you think the prospects are dimmed,  you sell your shares even if it means to cut loss.  " 1. Why accept a losing deal?    If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?    SMRT upside is capped after the NRFF downside is taken my SMRT. Upside taken by LTA. Would like to hear why you think otherwise.  Profit of SMRT in recent 2-3 years is from their non rail which contribute a very huge percentage compared to rail." Under NRFF, SMRT will continue to operate their non-rail business. You rightly pointed out that this contributed to a big percentage to their profits in the current framework based on their annual report. Part of their non-rail business comprise of commercial which includes rental and advertising which are the lucrative profit making machines, and especially so with the ridership upside opportunities as indicated in my analysis earlier. Now, this is the interesting part of the deal.   The focus on why the NRFF is not sweet on SMRT is on the 5% profit margin cap. But for EBIT margin above 5%, excess will be shared via a tiered structure, up to a maximum of 95%, to LTA. Refer to link deck pointer 13.  http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Analyst%20Briefing%20Speech.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=413003 How does the cap and tiered structure works in reality and what is the impact to the overall profit (rail and non-rail) and dividend policy before and after NRFF? All these need time to study and obviously not something which can work out on paper over a short period of time especially it concerns an expensive purchase like $1b  The logic to the agrument is: TH is a profit driven entity. Why would they accept the NRFF deal since it cap on the upside and have to undertake so much " risk" as projected? Is there value in the deal which they can see but we can' t?  As usual, do your own research and make your own call.  " 4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record   SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.  divident is good in the past ... at the expense of the problem we are facing now .... hence it is not sustainable   .... recent year divident is in the range of 1.5%" From shareholder perspective, they listed the company to raise funds for development. Shareholders who think they have good prospect, buy their shares to support them. It is not wrong for shareholders to expect decent dividends and share price appreciation for the money they invested. It is not unreasonable  to expect the management to be able to make  money and at the same time, maintain their core assets at tip top condition.  It may seems like a tall order, but that' s the expectation of the million dollar pay package, isn' t it? If the business is destined to be unsustainable, why did they listed the company in the first place?  As a leader of a company, instead of focusing on claiming the business is unsustainable, why not learn from another successful model and see what they have done differently to suceed, and how to apply to the business to make it sustainable yet profitable? Don' t have this example? What about HK MTR?  Or perhaps, the challenge here is to find the right candidate to lead the company.  GoldNugget      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 22:54) Posted: one more point to add .... TH do make money losing business ... look at NOL ... national serivice to sell at discount to CMA ...  so totally possible for TH to riase the buy out price .... CPF money ... our money. GoldNugget      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 22:48) Posted: Thanks for your analysis Do agree TH can increase profitability simply by raising fair .. which i think they have the intention to do so.... if not SG would already have nationalised it instead of privatised it ...... i have a few comments to add to your point ....   1. Why accept a losing deal?  If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal? SMRT upside is capped after the NRFF downside is taken my SMRT. Upside taken by LTA. Would like to hear why you think otherwise.  Profit of SMRT in recent 2-3 years is from their non rail which contribute a very huge percentage compared to rail. 4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record  SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. divident is good in the past ... at the expense of the problem we are facing now .... hence it is not sustainable   .... recent year divident is in the range of 1.5%   5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  SMRT market cap is bigger then SBS by more then 3 times.
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famouspinky Supreme	27-Jul-2016 11:50        famouspinky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Th funds, the majority sh, also from all of us. Tangowhisky      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 11:32) Posted: 10K Paper loss $186! Just to vote No. If ' No' win, I will lose more. hahahaha. Just can' t stand how Temasek treat their minority shareholder within Singapore. Outside Singapore they are just like a big carrot head! sgng123      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 11:07) Posted: U still make money   it just less but almost guarantee when bb make their move to buy in open market. But bb need to push down first to force out weak holders and trapped potential short lol. Setting traps and wait for preys ( weak holders plus shortists lol). Got like 1 month to play off this one before the official DO detail out since the meeting expected in oct.
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Tangowhisky Member	27-Jul-2016 11:32        Tangowhisky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	10K Paper loss $186! Just to vote No. If ' No' win, I will lose more. hahahaha. Just can' t stand how Temasek treat their minority shareholder within Singapore. Outside Singapore they are just like a big carrot head! sgng123      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 11:07) Posted: U still make money   it just less but almost guarantee when bb make their move to buy in open market. But bb need to push down first to force out weak holders and trapped potential short lol. Setting traps and wait for preys ( weak holders plus shortists lol). Got like 1 month to play off this one before the official DO detail out since the meeting expected in oct.
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sun233 Elite	27-Jul-2016 11:19        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I agree with your reasoning. It' s happening now........ sgng123      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 10:38) Posted: Wait a few weeks then bb would pull this down to accumulate more to secure the delist offer. Temasek and smrt directors not allowed to vote so burden to make this a success fall to the bb. To accumulate in open market without buying above premium, they would short it down to create panic then scoop up willing sellers then cover their short before meeting. 75% needed or 35% of the total 46% need to vote yes assuming everyone go to meeting or send their proxy letter. This is a DO rather than GO which is easier.
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sun233 Elite	27-Jul-2016 11:16        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks bro hope you made also. sengsk      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 10:15) Posted: Cartoon or not, Just advance Congrat those who bought it 1.63-1.65 A well sleep for profit and laugh to bank for just a few mths waiting, Worth it ! sun233      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 09:57) Posted: Now how do we get you employed by Temasek!! Cartoon lah you........
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sgng123 Supreme	27-Jul-2016 11:07        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	U still make money   it just less but almost guarantee when bb make their move to buy in open market. But bb need to push down first to force out weak holders and trapped potential short lol. Setting traps and wait for preys ( weak holders plus shortists lol). Got like 1 month to play off this one before the official DO detail out since the meeting expected in oct.
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Tangowhisky Member	27-Jul-2016 10:56        Tangowhisky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I fail to see this and bought too early. My bad.  sgng123      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 10:38) Posted: Wait a few weeks then bb would pull this down to accumulate more to secure the delist offer. Temasek and smrt directors not allowed to vote so burden to make this a success fall to the bb. To accumulate in open market without buying above premium, they would short it down to create panic then scoop up willing sellers then cover their short before meeting. 75% needed or 35% of the total 46% need to vote yes assuming everyone go to meeting or send their proxy letter. This is a DO rather than GO which is easier.
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GoldNugget Elite	27-Jul-2016 10:54        GoldNugget About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I will feel more comfortable if the rest of the major share holder are funds ...instead of norminee.   sgng123      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 10:40) Posted: Cos temasek with 54% cannot vote in this exercise and uncertainty if deal depend on remaining 46% to make this a success. halleluyah      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 10:32) Posted: My broker cakap he dun see any reason why deal wun go thru as temasek is the offeror ( gt way to go thru)...if others then will b different story....dyodd
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sgng123 Supreme	27-Jul-2016 10:49        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	But again compare with risk post us election, smrt might be the safest bet as retail investors tend to support deal if economy is damn bad. But again bb need to accumulate   enough to make this one 100% guaranteed. 3q for sg companies might look horrible with more bad time ahead due to overvalued us stocks and brexit headwind.
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sgng123 Supreme	27-Jul-2016 10:40        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cos temasek with 54% cannot vote in this exercise and uncertainty if deal depend on remaining 46% to make this a success. halleluyah      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 10:32) Posted: My broker cakap he dun see any reason why deal wun go thru as temasek is the offeror ( gt way to go thru)...if others then will b different story....dyodd edchai      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 08:51) Posted: what happen if the deal fails ?
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sgng123 Supreme	27-Jul-2016 10:38        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Wait a few weeks then bb would pull this down to accumulate more to secure the delist offer. Temasek and smrt directors not allowed to vote so burden to make this a success fall to the bb. To accumulate in open market without buying above premium, they would short it down to create panic then scoop up willing sellers then cover their short before meeting. 75% needed or 35% of the total 46% need to vote yes assuming everyone go to meeting or send their proxy letter. This is a DO rather than GO which is easier.
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halleluyah Supreme	27-Jul-2016 10:32        halleluyah About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My broker cakap he dun see any reason why deal wun go thru as temasek is the offeror ( gt way to go thru)...if others then will b different story....dyodd edchai      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 08:51) Posted: what happen if the deal fails ?
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sengsk Elite	27-Jul-2016 10:15        sengsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cartoon or not, Just advance Congrat those who bought it 1.63-1.65 A well sleep for profit and laugh to bank for just a few mths waiting, Worth it ! sun233      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 09:57) Posted: Now how do we get you employed by Temasek!! Cartoon lah you........ sengsk      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 09:01) Posted: If these few days of pricing at 1.63 -1.65 Everyone who bought it will surely vote for YES which market control at these price. Thw Answer is surely GO THRU. Even if not go thru, just hope it come with other better offer. But this will not happen.
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sun233 Elite	27-Jul-2016 09:57        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Now how do we get you employed by Temasek!! Cartoon lah you........ sengsk      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 09:01) Posted: If these few days of pricing at 1.63 -1.65 Everyone who bought it will surely vote for YES which market control at these price. Thw Answer is surely GO THRU. Even if not go thru, just hope it come with other better offer. But this will not happen. edchai      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 08:51) Posted: what happen if the deal fails ?
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sun233 Elite	27-Jul-2016 09:54        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Got it. but dont intend to sell on open market. sengsk      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 08:45) Posted: Good, With 10 lots  You could earn ~ $500 sleep well profit. sun233      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 07:18) Posted: No i' m still holding. Managed to buy some yesterday at 1.63. I think can start buying at this price. But the lousy thing is that i only managed to get 2000 shares. Order was for ten. Sigh. Trying again today. All the best.
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sengsk Elite	27-Jul-2016 09:05        sengsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If i were to be SMRT, I will anounce if the offer were not accept by shareholders, Co will propose for 1 for 1 Rights Issue at 1.20 So you guys go calculate and cry without tears.... sengsk      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 09:01) Posted: If these few days of pricing at 1.63 -1.65 Everyone who bought it will surely vote for YES which market control at these price. Thw Answer is surely GO THRU. Even if not go thru, just hope it come with other better offer. But this will not happen. edchai      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 08:51) Posted: what happen if the deal fails ?
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sengsk Elite	27-Jul-2016 09:01        sengsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If these few days of pricing at 1.63 -1.65 Everyone who bought it will surely vote for YES which market control at these price. Thw Answer is surely GO THRU. Even if not go thru, just hope it come with other better offer. But this will not happen. edchai      ( Date: 27-Jul-2016 08:51) Posted: what happen if the deal fails ?
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