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Demostation Supreme	25-Jul-2016 10:35        Demostation About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This is true.  Making money is not that simple, but losing money is not hard.  So that is why, not buying.  Will only trade, i.e close positions within the due dates. Qanghoo      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 10:22) Posted: I think truth is lots of people suffer heavy losses in this mkt.  JTWKSG      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 10:15) Posted: Bro, so u don' t buy shares yah? Why come here? lolx
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Demostation Supreme	25-Jul-2016 10:31        Demostation About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Watching only.  Only enter when opportunity is real.  JTWKSG      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 10:15) Posted: Bro, so u don' t buy shares yah? Why come here? lolx Demostation      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 10:09) Posted: Too risky playing Sg market, any counter also cannot invest. If only for play play, you need a little time and cut loss of $500, before taking a risk.  Mostly cut loss are executed 8 times out of 10 times.  That is why don' t anyhow play play.  Lol.
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Qanghoo Supreme	25-Jul-2016 10:22        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think truth is lots of people suffer heavy losses in this mkt.  JTWKSG      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 10:15) Posted: Bro, so u don' t buy shares yah? Why come here? lolx Demostation      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 10:09) Posted: Too risky playing Sg market, any counter also cannot invest. If only for play play, you need a little time and cut loss of $500, before taking a risk.  Mostly cut loss are executed 8 times out of 10 times.  That is why don' t anyhow play play.  Lol.
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Siwomp Supreme	25-Jul-2016 10:21        Siwomp About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	note the 5% profit margin cap is before.taxes and interest...... which makes it even worst. Siwomp      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 10:16) Posted: Its that 5% cap on profit by lta that will drive out the funds that invested in smrt. if your profit is 5%, how much will translate to dividend? therefore, smrt as a dividend play is dead. the only reason to invest in smrt after the asset by back and 5%profit cap is probably the possibility that they spin off their retail biz which should generate some speculation interest. this provided lta give their blessing...... which is unlikely as lta needs to crawl back the est. 2.5billions that they need to invest in maintenance of smrt's current assets.
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sgng123 Supreme	25-Jul-2016 10:20        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Take the offer to save on brokerage fee or sell on open if cannot wait. Anyway no way out, if offer die all investors go down as market would factor in lower profit margin post asset divestment. This one another nol example, 100% win for temasek u got no chance.
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Siwomp Supreme	25-Jul-2016 10:16        Siwomp About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Its that 5% cap on profit by lta that will drive out the funds that invested in smrt. if your profit is 5%, how much will translate to dividend? therefore, smrt as a dividend play is dead. the only reason to invest in smrt after the asset by back and 5%profit cap is probably the possibility that they spin off their retail biz which should generate some speculation interest. this provided lta give their blessing...... which is unlikely as lta needs to crawl back the est. 2.5billions that they need to invest in maintenance of smrt's current assets.
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JTWKSG Member	25-Jul-2016 10:15        JTWKSG About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro, so u don' t buy shares yah? Why come here? lolx Demostation      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 10:09) Posted: Too risky playing Sg market, any counter also cannot invest. If only for play play, you need a little time and cut loss of $500, before taking a risk.  Mostly cut loss are executed 8 times out of 10 times.  That is why don' t anyhow play play.  Lol. happyharvest      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 09:46) Posted: If u so sure the deal will be through buying now to vote no even if the result is otherwise can some coffee money. The risk is low. Lo
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Qanghoo Supreme	25-Jul-2016 10:14        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	To me,  ur pts  makes some sensein.  But margin is so minute that we' re probably only injecting liquidity into broking hses.  But if they want to sell down, say, by two more cts, I might consider ..... happyharvest      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 09:46) Posted: If u so sure the deal will be through buying now to vote no even if the result is otherwise can some coffee money. The risk is low. Lol Demostation      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 08:23) Posted: Wrong time, wrong use.  Don' t try it. Lol.
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Demostation Supreme	25-Jul-2016 10:09        Demostation About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Too risky playing Sg market, any counter also cannot invest. If only for play play, you need a little time and cut loss of $500, before taking a risk.  Mostly cut loss are executed 8 times out of 10 times.  That is why don' t anyhow play play.  Lol. happyharvest      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 09:46) Posted: If u so sure the deal will be through buying now to vote no even if the result is otherwise can some coffee money. The risk is low. Lol Demostation      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 08:23) Posted: Wrong time, wrong use.  Don' t try it. Lol.
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Qanghoo Supreme	25-Jul-2016 10:03        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	To be fair,  TH cannot indiscriminately increase fare.  For some yrs now,  bus n MRT fares are governed by a formula under the purview of the Public Transport Council.  But, tell me, since when, from the time of the formation of SBS in 1978, have  fares been allowed to impact profitability?    The idea has always been sold to us that public services must run viably n to do so fares must be kept up to ensure that  operators are able to remain sustainably profitable.    The collapse of the Singapore Traction Co in the early 70s has often been pointed  as a poignant reminder of this (scare mongering?).  So, I  for  one find it a joke to  use uncertainty of fares as a rationale  as a contributory  factor  to  capping the offer px.    GoldNugget      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 22:48) Posted: Thanks for your analysis Do agree TH can increase profitability simply by raising fair .. which i think they have the intention to do so.... if not SG would already have nationalised it instead of privatised it ...... i have a few comments to add to your point ....   1. Why accept a losing deal?  If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal? SMRT upside is capped after the NRFF downside is taken my SMRT. Upside taken by LTA. Would like to hear why you think otherwise.  Profit of SMRT in recent 2-3 years is from their non rail which contribute a very huge percentage compared to rail. 4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record  SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. divident is good in the past ... at the expense of the problem we are facing now .... hence it is not sustainable   .... recent year divident is in the range of 1.5%   5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  SMRT market cap is bigger then SBS by more then 3 times.   JTWKSG      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 18:07) Posted: Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company. What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.   Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:  1. Why accept a losing deal? If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?  2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects? With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come? 3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare? SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP! Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line? http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/changis-t5-to-be-bigger-than-3-current-terminals-combined http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/thomson-east-coast-mrt-line-may-be-extended-to-airport As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?  4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53 Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1. 5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers? One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/singapore-subway-shares-lag-hong-kong-mtr-amid-breakdowns-chart As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  6.  $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value? They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:  Tigerair SIA offered a final  45%  premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed. https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X NOL France' s CMA CGM offered a  49%  premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m It had not been paying dividends since 2011. https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03 OSIM Osim CEO offered a premium of about  38.8% and 40.6%  to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods. http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/ron-sim-raises-offer-to-take-osim-private-to-s139-a-share OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.  http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/osim-profit-slumps-66-with-spore-its-worst-performing-market OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9 https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23 SMRT After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of  8.7%  over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.  Make your own call.
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happyharvest Elite	25-Jul-2016 09:46        happyharvest About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If u so sure the deal will be through buying now to vote no even if the result is otherwise can some coffee money. The risk is low. Lol Demostation      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 08:23) Posted: Wrong time, wrong use.  Don' t try it. Lol. happyharvest      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 07:57) Posted: If those have money can buy more to vote no. Haha
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Siwomp Supreme	25-Jul-2016 08:53        Siwomp About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Only time will tell.......
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mrwise Supreme	25-Jul-2016 08:48        mrwise About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Now market is very bad.   Good stocks  being pressed down with  low takeover price  to delist. Bad stock  dive down even more... Who dare to buy stock in the end?   Qanghoo      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 06:27) Posted: This is a very good piece.  Thx.  Like most of those vested, I' ve also sensed that the offeror is engaged in scre-mongering to pressure us into selling cheap.  Seem such a common tactic here.  Any downside risks seem imaginary rather than real.  Since when have fares here not kept up with profitability?  To me, the fare formula has all cost angles covered.  N, like u said, with steady population growth projected over the next 15 yrs (n even beyond that  - to longer projections of a population of 9.5 mil),  this hazing of an almost sure bet, seems a shameful smoke screen.    So, all in all,  the future of SMRT is really not bleak even given anticipated short-term hicups  which ostensibly is the rationale for the privatisation.  With this  seemingly as an  appropriate backdrop for valuation, one doubts if the 1.68 valuation  seems more than a wee bit conservative.  DYODD as always.      JTWKSG      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 18:07) Posted: Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company. What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.   Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:  1. Why accept a losing deal? If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?  2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects? With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come? 3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare? SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP! Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line? http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/changis-t5-to-be-bigger-than-3-current-terminals-combined http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/thomson-east-coast-mrt-line-may-be-extended-to-airport As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?  4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53 Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1. 5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers? One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/singapore-subway-shares-lag-hong-kong-mtr-amid-breakdowns-chart As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  6.  $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value? They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:  Tigerair SIA offered a final  45%  premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed. https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X NOL France' s CMA CGM offered a  49%  premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m It had not been paying dividends since 2011. https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03 OSIM Osim CEO offered a premium of about  38.8% and 40.6%  to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods. http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/ron-sim-raises-offer-to-take-osim-private-to-s139-a-share OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.  http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/osim-profit-slumps-66-with-spore-its-worst-performing-market OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9 https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23 SMRT After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of  8.7%  over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.  Make your own call.
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JTWKSG Member	25-Jul-2016 08:47        JTWKSG About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes agreed, don' t try it. Those who wanna buy more to vote no, pls think twice.  I' m sharing my analysis as those are some of the critical issues but yet not properly addressed in the mainstream. I may not be right. Please do your own research and make your own call.      Demostation      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 08:23) Posted: Wrong time, wrong use.  Don' t try it. Lol. happyharvest      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 07:57) Posted: If those have money can buy more to vote no. Haha
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Demostation Supreme	25-Jul-2016 08:23        Demostation About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Wrong time, wrong use.  Don' t try it. Lol. happyharvest      ( Date: 25-Jul-2016 07:57) Posted: If those have money can buy more to vote no. Haha
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happyharvest Elite	25-Jul-2016 07:57        happyharvest About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If those have money can buy more to vote no. Haha
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Qanghoo Supreme	25-Jul-2016 06:27        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This is a very good piece.  Thx.  Like most of those vested, I' ve also sensed that the offeror is engaged in scre-mongering to pressure us into selling cheap.  Seem such a common tactic here.  Any downside risks seem imaginary rather than real.  Since when have fares here not kept up with profitability?  To me, the fare formula has all cost angles covered.  N, like u said, with steady population growth projected over the next 15 yrs (n even beyond that  - to longer projections of a population of 9.5 mil),  this hazing of an almost sure bet, seems a shameful smoke screen.    So, all in all,  the future of SMRT is really not bleak even given anticipated short-term hicups  which ostensibly is the rationale for the privatisation.  With this  seemingly as an  appropriate backdrop for valuation, one doubts if the 1.68 valuation  seems more than a wee bit conservative.  DYODD as always.      JTWKSG      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 18:07) Posted: Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company. What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.   Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:  1. Why accept a losing deal? If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?  2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects? With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come? 3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare? SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP! Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line? http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/changis-t5-to-be-bigger-than-3-current-terminals-combined http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/thomson-east-coast-mrt-line-may-be-extended-to-airport As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?  4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53 Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1. 5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers? One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/singapore-subway-shares-lag-hong-kong-mtr-amid-breakdowns-chart As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  6.  $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value? They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:  Tigerair SIA offered a final  45%  premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed. https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X NOL France' s CMA CGM offered a  49%  premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m It had not been paying dividends since 2011. https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03 OSIM Osim CEO offered a premium of about  38.8% and 40.6%  to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods. http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/ron-sim-raises-offer-to-take-osim-private-to-s139-a-share OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.  http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/osim-profit-slumps-66-with-spore-its-worst-performing-market OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9 https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23 SMRT After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of  8.7%  over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.  Make your own call.  Goldfinger      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 10:53) Posted: I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad
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Goldfinger Supreme	24-Jul-2016 23:07        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yup I' m going to make a stand and not be bullied by this lousy deal. Will go down to the EGM and vote if they don' t allow mail in votes. mrwise      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 21:18) Posted: Agree! Good analysis... We should vote against! JTWKSG      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 18:07) Posted: Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company. What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.   Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:  1. Why accept a losing deal? If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?  2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects? With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come? 3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare? SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP! Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line? http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/changis-t5-to-be-bigger-than-3-current-terminals-combined http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/thomson-east-coast-mrt-line-may-be-extended-to-airport As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?  4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53 Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1. 5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers? One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/singapore-subway-shares-lag-hong-kong-mtr-amid-breakdowns-chart As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  6.  $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value? They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:  Tigerair SIA offered a final  45%  premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed. https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X NOL France' s CMA CGM offered a  49%  premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m It had not been paying dividends since 2011. https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03 OSIM Osim CEO offered a premium of about  38.8% and 40.6%  to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods. http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/ron-sim-raises-offer-to-take-osim-private-to-s139-a-share OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.  http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/osim-profit-slumps-66-with-spore-its-worst-performing-market OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9 https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23 SMRT After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of  8.7%  over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.  Make your own call.
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GoldNugget Elite	24-Jul-2016 22:54        GoldNugget About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	one more point to add .... TH do make money losing business ... look at NOL ... national serivice to sell at discount to CMA ...  so totally possible for TH to riase the buy out price .... CPF money ... our money. GoldNugget      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 22:48) Posted: Thanks for your analysis Do agree TH can increase profitability simply by raising fair .. which i think they have the intention to do so.... if not SG would already have nationalised it instead of privatised it ...... i have a few comments to add to your point ....   1. Why accept a losing deal?  If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal? SMRT upside is capped after the NRFF downside is taken my SMRT. Upside taken by LTA. Would like to hear why you think otherwise.  Profit of SMRT in recent 2-3 years is from their non rail which contribute a very huge percentage compared to rail. 4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record  SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. divident is good in the past ... at the expense of the problem we are facing now .... hence it is not sustainable   .... recent year divident is in the range of 1.5%   5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  SMRT market cap is bigger then SBS by more then 3 times.   JTWKSG      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 18:07) Posted: Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company. What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.   Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:  1. Why accept a losing deal? If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?  2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects? With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come? 3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare? SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP! Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line? http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/changis-t5-to-be-bigger-than-3-current-terminals-combined http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/thomson-east-coast-mrt-line-may-be-extended-to-airport As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?  4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53 Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1. 5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers? One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/singapore-subway-shares-lag-hong-kong-mtr-amid-breakdowns-chart As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  6.  $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value? They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:  Tigerair SIA offered a final  45%  premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed. https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X NOL France' s CMA CGM offered a  49%  premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m It had not been paying dividends since 2011. https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03 OSIM Osim CEO offered a premium of about  38.8% and 40.6%  to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods. http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/ron-sim-raises-offer-to-take-osim-private-to-s139-a-share OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.  http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/osim-profit-slumps-66-with-spore-its-worst-performing-market OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9 https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23 SMRT After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of  8.7%  over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.  Make your own call.
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GoldNugget Elite	24-Jul-2016 22:48        GoldNugget About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks for your analysis Do agree TH can increase profitability simply by raising fair .. which i think they have the intention to do so.... if not SG would already have nationalised it instead of privatised it ...... i have a few comments to add to your point ....   1. Why accept a losing deal?  If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal? SMRT upside is capped after the NRFF downside is taken my SMRT. Upside taken by LTA. Would like to hear why you think otherwise.  Profit of SMRT in recent 2-3 years is from their non rail which contribute a very huge percentage compared to rail. 4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record  SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. divident is good in the past ... at the expense of the problem we are facing now .... hence it is not sustainable   .... recent year divident is in the range of 1.5%   5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  SMRT market cap is bigger then SBS by more then 3 times.   JTWKSG      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 18:07) Posted: Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company. What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.   Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:  1. Why accept a losing deal? If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?  2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects? With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come? 3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare? SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP! Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line? http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/changis-t5-to-be-bigger-than-3-current-terminals-combined http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/thomson-east-coast-mrt-line-may-be-extended-to-airport As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?  4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53 Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1. 5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers? One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/singapore-subway-shares-lag-hong-kong-mtr-amid-breakdowns-chart As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  6.  $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value? They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:  Tigerair SIA offered a final  45%  premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed. https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X NOL France' s CMA CGM offered a  49%  premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m It had not been paying dividends since 2011. https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03 OSIM Osim CEO offered a premium of about  38.8% and 40.6%  to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods. http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/ron-sim-raises-offer-to-take-osim-private-to-s139-a-share OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.  http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/osim-profit-slumps-66-with-spore-its-worst-performing-market OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9 https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23 SMRT After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of  8.7%  over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.  Make your own call.  Goldfinger      ( Date: 24-Jul-2016 10:53) Posted: I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad
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