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furnaces Veteran	21-Jun-2020 11:11        furnaces About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Pretty self-explanatory chart on the Daily New Covid-19 cases below. Re-opening of the economies gave people the false illusion that the virus is under control but the spread is in fact accelerating. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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shadow11 Veteran	21-Jun-2020 11:08        shadow11 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	They merely said second quarter ending 30 June 2020 to exceed that of 1Q 2020. They did not say 2nd profit is 50% up of 1Q2020. EPs 0.467 is anyhow estimated one. ssrata      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 09:13) Posted: At eps of 0.467 even if PE for small cap medical is only 8 then price should be 37 cents and if PE is 10 then price should be around 47 cents medtecs is definitely undervalued. shadow11      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 01:25) Posted: Small cap.. One off covid event don't have such 15x pe. U may as well put 20x pe. Swah. Small cap at most 8-10x. Need to factor in squeeze margin , order cancellation. Etc. Next yr outlook profit may not be the same as this yr. Dun play. 0.335 Its fully value at the moment.
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chiachiawee Elite	21-Jun-2020 10:35        chiachiawee About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro wolverine, you are right. The post here indeed does not change the price. It is more on the knowledge of the general investor here. It is because the exchange is that lousy with low liquidity, it is more important to have the group of people I mentioned earlier to do their job. In that way, there will be Volatility and the BBs could take advantage against them. The more knowledgeable they are, the least advance position we are in.  Anyway, we are the early birds that are in the money. Hold and huat.  wolverine23      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 10:02) Posted: Master Chia...  there will always be shorts, longs, BBs no matter what is posted here lah. end of the day, price is determined by how efficient the market is.  SGX is a lousyt exchange with insufficient liquidity. if this is in US, share price already fried up past $1! Given the inefficiency of sgx and the smaller liquidity of BBs/ funds/ retails who are into it. The efficiency has a long lag. theres why there is some longer window to abitrage from it.  BBs in this counter are complacent that no other funbds wants to play this. If there are, there will be mad scramble to buy. early bird catches the worm.  chiachiawee      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 00:39) Posted: Hi bro, very good analysis backed by good research. However, I am not very ' pleased' by your detailed analysis.  Reason because the market needs the banwagoners, the short seller who short without thinking, the short term traders to trades and CL when tide goes against them, and the newbies purely follow without doing homework. Your detail analysis has put the long term investors at disadvantage (I' m one of them who hold the batch at 0.1x), that since all the strong fundamentals were exposed in your below analysis, the BBs might not be interested to do the flush and the extreme push anymore. There will be less volatility in this counter to achieve a higher growth. Do consider next time to keep the analysis at your own. You don' t have the incentive to do it here anyway. People needs to learn their way up.  Nevertheless, good analysis.
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wolverine23 Supreme	21-Jun-2020 10:02        wolverine23 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Medical Bull 2020 !!!!!!!! = Internet Bull 2000 !!!!!!!!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Master Chia...  there will always be shorts, longs, BBs no matter what is posted here lah. end of the day, price is determined by how efficient the market is.  SGX is a lousyt exchange with insufficient liquidity. if this is in US, share price already fried up past $1! Given the inefficiency of sgx and the smaller liquidity of BBs/ funds/ retails who are into it. The efficiency has a long lag. theres why there is some longer window to abitrage from it.  BBs in this counter are complacent that no other funbds wants to play this. If there are, there will be mad scramble to buy. early bird catches the worm.  chiachiawee      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 00:39) Posted: Hi bro, very good analysis backed by good research. However, I am not very ' pleased' by your detailed analysis.  Reason because the market needs the banwagoners, the short seller who short without thinking, the short term traders to trades and CL when tide goes against them, and the newbies purely follow without doing homework. Your detail analysis has put the long term investors at disadvantage (I' m one of them who hold the batch at 0.1x), that since all the strong fundamentals were exposed in your below analysis, the BBs might not be interested to do the flush and the extreme push anymore. There will be less volatility in this counter to achieve a higher growth. Do consider next time to keep the analysis at your own. You don' t have the incentive to do it here anyway. People needs to learn their way up.  Nevertheless, good analysis.  Quality_Invest      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 23:44) Posted: I have been following this forum for the past few months and have benefited from the sharing by some experienced investors/traders here. Seeing that many people here are confused about Medtecs&rsquo recent announcement (positive event) that contrasted with the Friday&rsquo s plunge in stock price (negative event), I will share my insights here. In this post, I will be as detailed and objective as possible, covering most of the points and questions that others have shared here. ------------------------------ Fundamental Analysis According to the Medtecs&rsquo announcement on 5th May 2020, Q1 profits is US$3.672 million and Q2 profits is higher than Q1. In the follow-up announcement on 18th June 2020 (Thursday), it was mentioned that profits in the second half of 2020 will be AT LEAST on par with profits in the first half of 2020. To calculate the full year profits, we need to know Q2 profits, which was not provided. In this case, I will use the information we have on hand, which is that Covid-19 only started spreading globally starting middle of February (half-way into Q1). Hence, we can reasonably assume that Q2 profits will be 50% higher than Q1. With the above information, we can derive the following: Q1 profits: US$3.672M Q2 profits: US$5.508M (50% higher) Q3 & Q4 profits: US$9.18M (at least on par with first half)   Full year 2020 profits = US$18.36M = S$25.7M (exchange rate of 1:1.4) Given that Medtecs has about 550million shares, Earnings Per Share (EPS) will be S$0.0467. If we use the average PE Ratio of 15, multiplied by EPS, the value of the stock price should be S$0.70. Given that investors around the world are highly bullish about the medical sector, PE ratio can easily be higher than the average of 15, which means the value of the stock price can go even higher than S$0.70. Current stock price is only $0.295.   However, one point which many people here missed out in their calculations is that investors do not just look at one year&rsquo s profits to determine the value of the company. Hence, we have to make some predictions for 2021 at the very least. Medtecs&rsquo sales are expected to drop next year, since this year is a black swan event. However, given that (1) the high infectability of the Covid-19 virus where total number of cases worldwide continue to break record highs, (2) vaccines are not expected to be readily ready until at least start of next year and (3) governments and organisations around the world will want to stockpile on medical supplies after learning their lessons the hard way, we can safely assume that Medtecs&rsquo sales will still be decent. Assuming a 50% drop in sales next year, EPS will be S$0.023. Take 2020 and 2021&rsquo s combined EPS and divide it by 2 years, multiply by PE ratio of 15, the short-term fundamental value of the stock will be S$0.522 (78% gain from current stock price).   For those long-term investors, you might ask, what happens after 2 years? For 2020 and 2021, Medtecs as a company would have earned unprecedented profits, running in the tens of millions of dollars as calculated earlier. A good management would use this money to expand in future growth areas so that even after the Covid-19 has been completely eradicated, future revenue and profits will continue to be much higher than what it achieved in the past.   In summary, Thursday&rsquo s announcement is actually very positive as we are only in the middle of June, but the company is already confident to announce that profits from second half of the year will be AT LEAST on par with profits from first half of the year.   Question: If Thursday&rsquo s announcement is very positive, why did Medtecs share price plunge on Friday late afternoon? I offer two possible explanations: First, as we all know, markets are not always rational. Many people buy and sell company shares without proper knowledge or homework, but based on their feelings and sentiments. These people can be easily taken advantage of by real investors/traders who have done their homework. This leads me to the second explanation.   The second explanation is that Friday&rsquo s movement is manipulated to flush out contra players, people who bought the company shares without doing their homework, as well as people who sold the shares based on fear. Senior Executives or seasoned investors will know that most companies&rsquo AGM is merely a formality to pass down resolutions and re-appoint directors for the next year. No one is expecting new information or surprise announcements that can significantly affect a stock&rsquo s price. Medtecs&rsquo AGM on Friday is no different. Resolutions were passed, directors were re-appointed, and it ended without fanfare. However, just within minutes after the AGM ended, more than 10 million shares were intentionally thrown down, causing the stock price to drop from S$0.32 to S$0.295. This sparked panic in many of the weak holders that I mentioned earlier, causing more to sell and others to cut loss. Legit investors would have never dumped their shares immediately after an AGM ended where nothing fancy is expected in the first place. Such a move is highly likely to be pre-mediated with the intention to earn by shorting, and quickly buying back even more shares from people who sold in a panic to prepare for an even bigger rise down the road. Friday&rsquo s afternoon movement has nothing to do with the company&rsquo s fundamentals and positive news that was announced earlier. For those who believe in the company&rsquo s fundamentals, it can be a good opportunity to buy.   ------------------------------ Macro-outlook Although many people may think that Covid-19 is coming under control with economies re-opening, truth is that the number of Covid-19 cases worldwide has continued to break record highs ( Link here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases ) and new regions are becoming emerging hotspots. With this backdrop, medical supplies will continue to be in high demand by governments, organisations and hospitals worldwide. And this is to keep in mind that stockpiling of medical supplies for the future has barely begun in many countries. Hence, we can expect Medtecs business to remain blooming for at least until second half of 2021.     Other Questions Medtecs is going to face increased competition from new companies starting to produce masks and PPE. How is this going to affect the company? Governments, organisations (e.g. World Health Organisation) and hospitals will be the main people buying PPE and they would most definitely want to buy from trusted sources, not some random company who just started operations 6 months ago and may close down anytime. In this regard, Medtecs benefit from its brand and credibility, as it has been operating for more than 30 years. As shared in their Thursday&rsquo s announcement, Medtecs is &ldquo the preferred trading partner and supplier by international buyers, who have praised our products for quality&rdquo .   Summary Covid-19 has negatively impacted most industries and companies around the globe, and its impact is expected to continue for at least the next 1-2 years. The Medical sector on the other hand, is one of the rare few which has benefited greatly from it. Although most other companies in the Medical sector are already seeing rich valuations in their stock prices, Medtecs Intl remains undervalued with a Fundamental value of S$0.520 as compared to its current stock price at S$0.295. Medtecs Intl' s management has also expressed willingness to consider paying out dividends from its bumper profits. Combined with the backdrop that many investors are looking to invest in sectors that can benefit from this outbreak, especially when stock market indexes worldwide are already at pre-Covid 19 levels, Medtecs Intl is a rare gem and should see its stock price continue to break record highs in the very near term. ------------------------------ Hope the above insights help everyone here in making your decision on Medtecs next week! 😊 Full article linked here:  https://flyinginvest.wixsite.com/mysite/post/sgx-546-si-medtecs-intl
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glann92 Senior	21-Jun-2020 09:49        glann92 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I agree. We need bbs and those who dont do their homework to do their job. chiachiawee      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 00:39) Posted: Hi bro, very good analysis backed by good research. However, I am not very ' pleased' by your detailed analysis.  Reason because the market needs the banwagoners, the short seller who short without thinking, the short term traders to trades and CL when tide goes against them, and the newbies purely follow without doing homework. Your detail analysis has put the long term investors at disadvantage (I' m one of them who hold the batch at 0.1x), that since all the strong fundamentals were exposed in your below analysis, the BBs might not be interested to do the flush and the extreme push anymore. There will be less volatility in this counter to achieve a higher growth. Do consider next time to keep the analysis at your own. You don' t have the incentive to do it here anyway. People needs to learn their way up.  Nevertheless, good analysis.  Quality_Invest      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 23:44) Posted: I have been following this forum for the past few months and have benefited from the sharing by some experienced investors/traders here. Seeing that many people here are confused about Medtecs&rsquo recent announcement (positive event) that contrasted with the Friday&rsquo s plunge in stock price (negative event), I will share my insights here. In this post, I will be as detailed and objective as possible, covering most of the points and questions that others have shared here. ------------------------------ Fundamental Analysis According to the Medtecs&rsquo announcement on 5th May 2020, Q1 profits is US$3.672 million and Q2 profits is higher than Q1. In the follow-up announcement on 18th June 2020 (Thursday), it was mentioned that profits in the second half of 2020 will be AT LEAST on par with profits in the first half of 2020. To calculate the full year profits, we need to know Q2 profits, which was not provided. In this case, I will use the information we have on hand, which is that Covid-19 only started spreading globally starting middle of February (half-way into Q1). Hence, we can reasonably assume that Q2 profits will be 50% higher than Q1. With the above information, we can derive the following: Q1 profits: US$3.672M Q2 profits: US$5.508M (50% higher) Q3 & Q4 profits: US$9.18M (at least on par with first half)   Full year 2020 profits = US$18.36M = S$25.7M (exchange rate of 1:1.4) Given that Medtecs has about 550million shares, Earnings Per Share (EPS) will be S$0.0467. If we use the average PE Ratio of 15, multiplied by EPS, the value of the stock price should be S$0.70. Given that investors around the world are highly bullish about the medical sector, PE ratio can easily be higher than the average of 15, which means the value of the stock price can go even higher than S$0.70. Current stock price is only $0.295.   However, one point which many people here missed out in their calculations is that investors do not just look at one year&rsquo s profits to determine the value of the company. Hence, we have to make some predictions for 2021 at the very least. Medtecs&rsquo sales are expected to drop next year, since this year is a black swan event. However, given that (1) the high infectability of the Covid-19 virus where total number of cases worldwide continue to break record highs, (2) vaccines are not expected to be readily ready until at least start of next year and (3) governments and organisations around the world will want to stockpile on medical supplies after learning their lessons the hard way, we can safely assume that Medtecs&rsquo sales will still be decent. Assuming a 50% drop in sales next year, EPS will be S$0.023. Take 2020 and 2021&rsquo s combined EPS and divide it by 2 years, multiply by PE ratio of 15, the short-term fundamental value of the stock will be S$0.522 (78% gain from current stock price).   For those long-term investors, you might ask, what happens after 2 years? For 2020 and 2021, Medtecs as a company would have earned unprecedented profits, running in the tens of millions of dollars as calculated earlier. A good management would use this money to expand in future growth areas so that even after the Covid-19 has been completely eradicated, future revenue and profits will continue to be much higher than what it achieved in the past.   In summary, Thursday&rsquo s announcement is actually very positive as we are only in the middle of June, but the company is already confident to announce that profits from second half of the year will be AT LEAST on par with profits from first half of the year.   Question: If Thursday&rsquo s announcement is very positive, why did Medtecs share price plunge on Friday late afternoon? I offer two possible explanations: First, as we all know, markets are not always rational. Many people buy and sell company shares without proper knowledge or homework, but based on their feelings and sentiments. These people can be easily taken advantage of by real investors/traders who have done their homework. This leads me to the second explanation.   The second explanation is that Friday&rsquo s movement is manipulated to flush out contra players, people who bought the company shares without doing their homework, as well as people who sold the shares based on fear. Senior Executives or seasoned investors will know that most companies&rsquo AGM is merely a formality to pass down resolutions and re-appoint directors for the next year. No one is expecting new information or surprise announcements that can significantly affect a stock&rsquo s price. Medtecs&rsquo AGM on Friday is no different. Resolutions were passed, directors were re-appointed, and it ended without fanfare. However, just within minutes after the AGM ended, more than 10 million shares were intentionally thrown down, causing the stock price to drop from S$0.32 to S$0.295. This sparked panic in many of the weak holders that I mentioned earlier, causing more to sell and others to cut loss. Legit investors would have never dumped their shares immediately after an AGM ended where nothing fancy is expected in the first place. Such a move is highly likely to be pre-mediated with the intention to earn by shorting, and quickly buying back even more shares from people who sold in a panic to prepare for an even bigger rise down the road. Friday&rsquo s afternoon movement has nothing to do with the company&rsquo s fundamentals and positive news that was announced earlier. For those who believe in the company&rsquo s fundamentals, it can be a good opportunity to buy.   ------------------------------ Macro-outlook Although many people may think that Covid-19 is coming under control with economies re-opening, truth is that the number of Covid-19 cases worldwide has continued to break record highs ( Link here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases ) and new regions are becoming emerging hotspots. With this backdrop, medical supplies will continue to be in high demand by governments, organisations and hospitals worldwide. And this is to keep in mind that stockpiling of medical supplies for the future has barely begun in many countries. Hence, we can expect Medtecs business to remain blooming for at least until second half of 2021.     Other Questions Medtecs is going to face increased competition from new companies starting to produce masks and PPE. How is this going to affect the company? Governments, organisations (e.g. World Health Organisation) and hospitals will be the main people buying PPE and they would most definitely want to buy from trusted sources, not some random company who just started operations 6 months ago and may close down anytime. In this regard, Medtecs benefit from its brand and credibility, as it has been operating for more than 30 years. As shared in their Thursday&rsquo s announcement, Medtecs is &ldquo the preferred trading partner and supplier by international buyers, who have praised our products for quality&rdquo .   Summary Covid-19 has negatively impacted most industries and companies around the globe, and its impact is expected to continue for at least the next 1-2 years. The Medical sector on the other hand, is one of the rare few which has benefited greatly from it. Although most other companies in the Medical sector are already seeing rich valuations in their stock prices, Medtecs Intl remains undervalued with a Fundamental value of S$0.520 as compared to its current stock price at S$0.295. Medtecs Intl' s management has also expressed willingness to consider paying out dividends from its bumper profits. Combined with the backdrop that many investors are looking to invest in sectors that can benefit from this outbreak, especially when stock market indexes worldwide are already at pre-Covid 19 levels, Medtecs Intl is a rare gem and should see its stock price continue to break record highs in the very near term. ------------------------------ Hope the above insights help everyone here in making your decision on Medtecs next week! 😊 Full article linked here:  https://flyinginvest.wixsite.com/mysite/post/sgx-546-si-medtecs-intl
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nghonpo Veteran	21-Jun-2020 09:21        nghonpo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good view. Safe to stay ringside and look for better opportunities. Maybe review this forum 6 months from now and see wheather you miss anything.    shadow11      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 01:25) Posted: Small cap.. One off covid event don't have such 15x pe. U may as well put 20x pe. Swah. Small cap at most 8-10x. Need to factor in squeeze margin , order cancellation. Etc. Next yr outlook profit may not be the same as this yr. Dun play. 0.335 Its fully value at the moment.
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ssrata Member	21-Jun-2020 09:13        ssrata About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	At eps of 0.467 even if PE for small cap medical is only 8 then price should be 37 cents and if PE is 10 then price should be around 47 cents medtecs is definitely undervalued. shadow11      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 01:25) Posted: Small cap.. One off covid event don't have such 15x pe. U may as well put 20x pe. Swah. Small cap at most 8-10x. Need to factor in squeeze margin , order cancellation. Etc. Next yr outlook profit may not be the same as this yr. Dun play. 0.335 Its fully value at the moment.
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Investor8 Master	21-Jun-2020 08:46        Investor8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I am 99% certain Medtecs will pay a dividend in August 2020 or February 2021. Management have indicated that they are not rushing into making long-term capital investments, ie plants, machinery etc, because it is obvious that this black Swan event is not going to be permanent. They have made a very shrew decision to act as wholesaler during this pandemic to leverage on their reputation. This way, they do not risk the capex investment leading to under-utilization going forward. Yet, at the same time, they can still benefit from the surging demand. Margins may be lower, but risk is also mitigated. So, company will be flushed with funds for FY2020 and it makes sense to reward shareholders accordingly. A bonus issue is unlikely as it will magnify the dilution of EPS down the road given that the current financial performance is not likely to be sustained. Given the current low interest rate environment, company may also not be able to re-invest their surplus funds to achieve a decent rate of return. So paying out a dividend seems like a no-brainer. Investor8      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 23:06) Posted: Off-hand, I recalled reading somewhere Medtecs paid a dividend during Sars epidemic. Not sure how much though. Got to dig for info. But I am pretty confident that dividends are coming in August. If not, it should come in February 2021 after their FY2020 year-end results.
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Superfast Supreme	21-Jun-2020 08:00        Superfast About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good analysis... Quality_Invest      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 23:44) Posted: I have been following this forum for the past few months and have benefited from the sharing by some experienced investors/traders here. Seeing that many people here are confused about Medtecs&rsquo recent announcement (positive event) that contrasted with the Friday&rsquo s plunge in stock price (negative event), I will share my insights here. In this post, I will be as detailed and objective as possible, covering most of the points and questions that others have shared here. ------------------------------ Fundamental Analysis According to the Medtecs&rsquo announcement on 5th May 2020, Q1 profits is US$3.672 million and Q2 profits is higher than Q1. In the follow-up announcement on 18th June 2020 (Thursday), it was mentioned that profits in the second half of 2020 will be AT LEAST on par with profits in the first half of 2020. To calculate the full year profits, we need to know Q2 profits, which was not provided. In this case, I will use the information we have on hand, which is that Covid-19 only started spreading globally starting middle of February (half-way into Q1). Hence, we can reasonably assume that Q2 profits will be 50% higher than Q1. With the above information, we can derive the following: Q1 profits: US$3.672M Q2 profits: US$5.508M (50% higher) Q3 & Q4 profits: US$9.18M (at least on par with first half)   Full year 2020 profits = US$18.36M = S$25.7M (exchange rate of 1:1.4) Given that Medtecs has about 550million shares, Earnings Per Share (EPS) will be S$0.0467. If we use the average PE Ratio of 15, multiplied by EPS, the value of the stock price should be S$0.70. Given that investors around the world are highly bullish about the medical sector, PE ratio can easily be higher than the average of 15, which means the value of the stock price can go even higher than S$0.70. Current stock price is only $0.295.   However, one point which many people here missed out in their calculations is that investors do not just look at one year&rsquo s profits to determine the value of the company. Hence, we have to make some predictions for 2021 at the very least. Medtecs&rsquo sales are expected to drop next year, since this year is a black swan event. However, given that (1) the high infectability of the Covid-19 virus where total number of cases worldwide continue to break record highs, (2) vaccines are not expected to be readily ready until at least start of next year and (3) governments and organisations around the world will want to stockpile on medical supplies after learning their lessons the hard way, we can safely assume that Medtecs&rsquo sales will still be decent. Assuming a 50% drop in sales next year, EPS will be S$0.023. Take 2020 and 2021&rsquo s combined EPS and divide it by 2 years, multiply by PE ratio of 15, the short-term fundamental value of the stock will be S$0.522 (78% gain from current stock price).   For those long-term investors, you might ask, what happens after 2 years? For 2020 and 2021, Medtecs as a company would have earned unprecedented profits, running in the tens of millions of dollars as calculated earlier. A good management would use this money to expand in future growth areas so that even after the Covid-19 has been completely eradicated, future revenue and profits will continue to be much higher than what it achieved in the past.   In summary, Thursday&rsquo s announcement is actually very positive as we are only in the middle of June, but the company is already confident to announce that profits from second half of the year will be AT LEAST on par with profits from first half of the year.   Question: If Thursday&rsquo s announcement is very positive, why did Medtecs share price plunge on Friday late afternoon? I offer two possible explanations: First, as we all know, markets are not always rational. Many people buy and sell company shares without proper knowledge or homework, but based on their feelings and sentiments. These people can be easily taken advantage of by real investors/traders who have done their homework. This leads me to the second explanation.   The second explanation is that Friday&rsquo s movement is manipulated to flush out contra players, people who bought the company shares without doing their homework, as well as people who sold the shares based on fear. Senior Executives or seasoned investors will know that most companies&rsquo AGM is merely a formality to pass down resolutions and re-appoint directors for the next year. No one is expecting new information or surprise announcements that can significantly affect a stock&rsquo s price. Medtecs&rsquo AGM on Friday is no different. Resolutions were passed, directors were re-appointed, and it ended without fanfare. However, just within minutes after the AGM ended, more than 10 million shares were intentionally thrown down, causing the stock price to drop from S$0.32 to S$0.295. This sparked panic in many of the weak holders that I mentioned earlier, causing more to sell and others to cut loss. Legit investors would have never dumped their shares immediately after an AGM ended where nothing fancy is expected in the first place. Such a move is highly likely to be pre-mediated with the intention to earn by shorting, and quickly buying back even more shares from people who sold in a panic to prepare for an even bigger rise down the road. Friday&rsquo s afternoon movement has nothing to do with the company&rsquo s fundamentals and positive news that was announced earlier. For those who believe in the company&rsquo s fundamentals, it can be a good opportunity to buy.   ------------------------------ Macro-outlook Although many people may think that Covid-19 is coming under control with economies re-opening, truth is that the number of Covid-19 cases worldwide has continued to break record highs ( Link here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases ) and new regions are becoming emerging hotspots. With this backdrop, medical supplies will continue to be in high demand by governments, organisations and hospitals worldwide. And this is to keep in mind that stockpiling of medical supplies for the future has barely begun in many countries. Hence, we can expect Medtecs business to remain blooming for at least until second half of 2021.     Other Questions Medtecs is going to face increased competition from new companies starting to produce masks and PPE. How is this going to affect the company? Governments, organisations (e.g. World Health Organisation) and hospitals will be the main people buying PPE and they would most definitely want to buy from trusted sources, not some random company who just started operations 6 months ago and may close down anytime. In this regard, Medtecs benefit from its brand and credibility, as it has been operating for more than 30 years. As shared in their Thursday&rsquo s announcement, Medtecs is &ldquo the preferred trading partner and supplier by international buyers, who have praised our products for quality&rdquo .   Summary Covid-19 has negatively impacted most industries and companies around the globe, and its impact is expected to continue for at least the next 1-2 years. The Medical sector on the other hand, is one of the rare few which has benefited greatly from it. Although most other companies in the Medical sector are already seeing rich valuations in their stock prices, Medtecs Intl remains undervalued with a Fundamental value of S$0.520 as compared to its current stock price at S$0.295. Medtecs Intl' s management has also expressed willingness to consider paying out dividends from its bumper profits. Combined with the backdrop that many investors are looking to invest in sectors that can benefit from this outbreak, especially when stock market indexes worldwide are already at pre-Covid 19 levels, Medtecs Intl is a rare gem and should see its stock price continue to break record highs in the very near term. ------------------------------ Hope the above insights help everyone here in making your decision on Medtecs next week! 😊 Full article linked here:  https://flyinginvest.wixsite.com/mysite/post/sgx-546-si-medtecs-intl
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shadow11 Veteran	21-Jun-2020 01:25        shadow11 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Small cap.. One off covid event don't have such 15x pe. U may as well put 20x pe. Swah. Small cap at most 8-10x. Need to factor in squeeze margin , order cancellation. Etc. Next yr outlook profit may not be the same as this yr. Dun play. 0.335 Its fully value at the moment.
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chiachiawee Elite	21-Jun-2020 00:39        chiachiawee About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi bro, very good analysis backed by good research. However, I am not very ' pleased' by your detailed analysis.  Reason because the market needs the banwagoners, the short seller who short without thinking, the short term traders to trades and CL when tide goes against them, and the newbies purely follow without doing homework. Your detail analysis has put the long term investors at disadvantage (I' m one of them who hold the batch at 0.1x), that since all the strong fundamentals were exposed in your below analysis, the BBs might not be interested to do the flush and the extreme push anymore. There will be less volatility in this counter to achieve a higher growth. Do consider next time to keep the analysis at your own. You don' t have the incentive to do it here anyway. People needs to learn their way up.  Nevertheless, good analysis.  Quality_Invest      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 23:44) Posted: I have been following this forum for the past few months and have benefited from the sharing by some experienced investors/traders here. Seeing that many people here are confused about Medtecs&rsquo recent announcement (positive event) that contrasted with the Friday&rsquo s plunge in stock price (negative event), I will share my insights here. In this post, I will be as detailed and objective as possible, covering most of the points and questions that others have shared here. ------------------------------ Fundamental Analysis According to the Medtecs&rsquo announcement on 5th May 2020, Q1 profits is US$3.672 million and Q2 profits is higher than Q1. In the follow-up announcement on 18th June 2020 (Thursday), it was mentioned that profits in the second half of 2020 will be AT LEAST on par with profits in the first half of 2020. To calculate the full year profits, we need to know Q2 profits, which was not provided. In this case, I will use the information we have on hand, which is that Covid-19 only started spreading globally starting middle of February (half-way into Q1). Hence, we can reasonably assume that Q2 profits will be 50% higher than Q1. With the above information, we can derive the following: Q1 profits: US$3.672M Q2 profits: US$5.508M (50% higher) Q3 & Q4 profits: US$9.18M (at least on par with first half)   Full year 2020 profits = US$18.36M = S$25.7M (exchange rate of 1:1.4) Given that Medtecs has about 550million shares, Earnings Per Share (EPS) will be S$0.0467. If we use the average PE Ratio of 15, multiplied by EPS, the value of the stock price should be S$0.70. Given that investors around the world are highly bullish about the medical sector, PE ratio can easily be higher than the average of 15, which means the value of the stock price can go even higher than S$0.70. Current stock price is only $0.295.   However, one point which many people here missed out in their calculations is that investors do not just look at one year&rsquo s profits to determine the value of the company. Hence, we have to make some predictions for 2021 at the very least. Medtecs&rsquo sales are expected to drop next year, since this year is a black swan event. However, given that (1) the high infectability of the Covid-19 virus where total number of cases worldwide continue to break record highs, (2) vaccines are not expected to be readily ready until at least start of next year and (3) governments and organisations around the world will want to stockpile on medical supplies after learning their lessons the hard way, we can safely assume that Medtecs&rsquo sales will still be decent. Assuming a 50% drop in sales next year, EPS will be S$0.023. Take 2020 and 2021&rsquo s combined EPS and divide it by 2 years, multiply by PE ratio of 15, the short-term fundamental value of the stock will be S$0.522 (78% gain from current stock price).   For those long-term investors, you might ask, what happens after 2 years? For 2020 and 2021, Medtecs as a company would have earned unprecedented profits, running in the tens of millions of dollars as calculated earlier. A good management would use this money to expand in future growth areas so that even after the Covid-19 has been completely eradicated, future revenue and profits will continue to be much higher than what it achieved in the past.   In summary, Thursday&rsquo s announcement is actually very positive as we are only in the middle of June, but the company is already confident to announce that profits from second half of the year will be AT LEAST on par with profits from first half of the year.   Question: If Thursday&rsquo s announcement is very positive, why did Medtecs share price plunge on Friday late afternoon? I offer two possible explanations: First, as we all know, markets are not always rational. Many people buy and sell company shares without proper knowledge or homework, but based on their feelings and sentiments. These people can be easily taken advantage of by real investors/traders who have done their homework. This leads me to the second explanation.   The second explanation is that Friday&rsquo s movement is manipulated to flush out contra players, people who bought the company shares without doing their homework, as well as people who sold the shares based on fear. Senior Executives or seasoned investors will know that most companies&rsquo AGM is merely a formality to pass down resolutions and re-appoint directors for the next year. No one is expecting new information or surprise announcements that can significantly affect a stock&rsquo s price. Medtecs&rsquo AGM on Friday is no different. Resolutions were passed, directors were re-appointed, and it ended without fanfare. However, just within minutes after the AGM ended, more than 10 million shares were intentionally thrown down, causing the stock price to drop from S$0.32 to S$0.295. This sparked panic in many of the weak holders that I mentioned earlier, causing more to sell and others to cut loss. Legit investors would have never dumped their shares immediately after an AGM ended where nothing fancy is expected in the first place. Such a move is highly likely to be pre-mediated with the intention to earn by shorting, and quickly buying back even more shares from people who sold in a panic to prepare for an even bigger rise down the road. Friday&rsquo s afternoon movement has nothing to do with the company&rsquo s fundamentals and positive news that was announced earlier. For those who believe in the company&rsquo s fundamentals, it can be a good opportunity to buy.   ------------------------------ Macro-outlook Although many people may think that Covid-19 is coming under control with economies re-opening, truth is that the number of Covid-19 cases worldwide has continued to break record highs ( Link here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases ) and new regions are becoming emerging hotspots. With this backdrop, medical supplies will continue to be in high demand by governments, organisations and hospitals worldwide. And this is to keep in mind that stockpiling of medical supplies for the future has barely begun in many countries. Hence, we can expect Medtecs business to remain blooming for at least until second half of 2021.     Other Questions Medtecs is going to face increased competition from new companies starting to produce masks and PPE. How is this going to affect the company? Governments, organisations (e.g. World Health Organisation) and hospitals will be the main people buying PPE and they would most definitely want to buy from trusted sources, not some random company who just started operations 6 months ago and may close down anytime. In this regard, Medtecs benefit from its brand and credibility, as it has been operating for more than 30 years. As shared in their Thursday&rsquo s announcement, Medtecs is &ldquo the preferred trading partner and supplier by international buyers, who have praised our products for quality&rdquo .   Summary Covid-19 has negatively impacted most industries and companies around the globe, and its impact is expected to continue for at least the next 1-2 years. The Medical sector on the other hand, is one of the rare few which has benefited greatly from it. Although most other companies in the Medical sector are already seeing rich valuations in their stock prices, Medtecs Intl remains undervalued with a Fundamental value of S$0.520 as compared to its current stock price at S$0.295. Medtecs Intl' s management has also expressed willingness to consider paying out dividends from its bumper profits. Combined with the backdrop that many investors are looking to invest in sectors that can benefit from this outbreak, especially when stock market indexes worldwide are already at pre-Covid 19 levels, Medtecs Intl is a rare gem and should see its stock price continue to break record highs in the very near term. ------------------------------ Hope the above insights help everyone here in making your decision on Medtecs next week! 😊 Full article linked here:  https://flyinginvest.wixsite.com/mysite/post/sgx-546-si-medtecs-intl
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glann92 Senior	20-Jun-2020 23:52        glann92 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	i need durians~ hokpin      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 23:05) Posted: Pick up the durian fast if it drops to 0.275! glann92      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 22:14) Posted: will it retrace to 0.275 before chionging up?
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Quality_Invest Member	20-Jun-2020 23:44        Quality_Invest About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	I have been following this forum for the past few months and have benefited from the sharing by some experienced investors/traders here. Seeing that many people here are confused about Medtecs&rsquo recent announcement (positive event) that contrasted with the Friday&rsquo s plunge in stock price (negative event), I will share my insights here. In this post, I will be as detailed and objective as possible, covering most of the points and questions that others have shared here. ------------------------------ Fundamental Analysis According to the Medtecs&rsquo announcement on 5th May 2020, Q1 profits is US$3.672 million and Q2 profits is higher than Q1. In the follow-up announcement on 18th June 2020 (Thursday), it was mentioned that profits in the second half of 2020 will be AT LEAST on par with profits in the first half of 2020. To calculate the full year profits, we need to know Q2 profits, which was not provided. In this case, I will use the information we have on hand, which is that Covid-19 only started spreading globally starting middle of February (half-way into Q1). Hence, we can reasonably assume that Q2 profits will be 50% higher than Q1. With the above information, we can derive the following: Q1 profits: US$3.672M Q2 profits: US$5.508M (50% higher) Q3 & Q4 profits: US$9.18M (at least on par with first half)   Full year 2020 profits = US$18.36M = S$25.7M (exchange rate of 1:1.4) Given that Medtecs has about 550million shares, Earnings Per Share (EPS) will be S$0.0467. If we use the average PE Ratio of 15, multiplied by EPS, the value of the stock price should be S$0.70. Given that investors around the world are highly bullish about the medical sector, PE ratio can easily be higher than the average of 15, which means the value of the stock price can go even higher than S$0.70. Current stock price is only $0.295.   However, one point which many people here missed out in their calculations is that investors do not just look at one year&rsquo s profits to determine the value of the company. Hence, we have to make some predictions for 2021 at the very least. Medtecs&rsquo sales are expected to drop next year, since this year is a black swan event. However, given that (1) the high infectability of the Covid-19 virus where total number of cases worldwide continue to break record highs, (2) vaccines are not expected to be readily ready until at least start of next year and (3) governments and organisations around the world will want to stockpile on medical supplies after learning their lessons the hard way, we can safely assume that Medtecs&rsquo sales will still be decent. Assuming a 50% drop in sales next year, EPS will be S$0.023. Take 2020 and 2021&rsquo s combined EPS and divide it by 2 years, multiply by PE ratio of 15, the short-term fundamental value of the stock will be S$0.522 (78% gain from current stock price).   For those long-term investors, you might ask, what happens after 2 years? For 2020 and 2021, Medtecs as a company would have earned unprecedented profits, running in the tens of millions of dollars as calculated earlier. A good management would use this money to expand in future growth areas so that even after the Covid-19 has been completely eradicated, future revenue and profits will continue to be much higher than what it achieved in the past.   In summary, Thursday&rsquo s announcement is actually very positive as we are only in the middle of June, but the company is already confident to announce that profits from second half of the year will be AT LEAST on par with profits from first half of the year.   Question: If Thursday&rsquo s announcement is very positive, why did Medtecs share price plunge on Friday late afternoon? I offer two possible explanations: First, as we all know, markets are not always rational. Many people buy and sell company shares without proper knowledge or homework, but based on their feelings and sentiments. These people can be easily taken advantage of by real investors/traders who have done their homework. This leads me to the second explanation.   The second explanation is that Friday&rsquo s movement is manipulated to flush out contra players, people who bought the company shares without doing their homework, as well as people who sold the shares based on fear. Senior Executives or seasoned investors will know that most companies&rsquo AGM is merely a formality to pass down resolutions and re-appoint directors for the next year. No one is expecting new information or surprise announcements that can significantly affect a stock&rsquo s price. Medtecs&rsquo AGM on Friday is no different. Resolutions were passed, directors were re-appointed, and it ended without fanfare. However, just within minutes after the AGM ended, more than 10 million shares were intentionally thrown down, causing the stock price to drop from S$0.32 to S$0.295. This sparked panic in many of the weak holders that I mentioned earlier, causing more to sell and others to cut loss. Legit investors would have never dumped their shares immediately after an AGM ended where nothing fancy is expected in the first place. Such a move is highly likely to be pre-mediated with the intention to earn by shorting, and quickly buying back even more shares from people who sold in a panic to prepare for an even bigger rise down the road. Friday&rsquo s afternoon movement has nothing to do with the company&rsquo s fundamentals and positive news that was announced earlier. For those who believe in the company&rsquo s fundamentals, it can be a good opportunity to buy.   ------------------------------ Macro-outlook Although many people may think that Covid-19 is coming under control with economies re-opening, truth is that the number of Covid-19 cases worldwide has continued to break record highs ( Link here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases ) and new regions are becoming emerging hotspots. With this backdrop, medical supplies will continue to be in high demand by governments, organisations and hospitals worldwide. And this is to keep in mind that stockpiling of medical supplies for the future has barely begun in many countries. Hence, we can expect Medtecs business to remain blooming for at least until second half of 2021.     Other Questions Medtecs is going to face increased competition from new companies starting to produce masks and PPE. How is this going to affect the company? Governments, organisations (e.g. World Health Organisation) and hospitals will be the main people buying PPE and they would most definitely want to buy from trusted sources, not some random company who just started operations 6 months ago and may close down anytime. In this regard, Medtecs benefit from its brand and credibility, as it has been operating for more than 30 years. As shared in their Thursday&rsquo s announcement, Medtecs is &ldquo the preferred trading partner and supplier by international buyers, who have praised our products for quality&rdquo .   Summary Covid-19 has negatively impacted most industries and companies around the globe, and its impact is expected to continue for at least the next 1-2 years. The Medical sector on the other hand, is one of the rare few which has benefited greatly from it. Although most other companies in the Medical sector are already seeing rich valuations in their stock prices, Medtecs Intl remains undervalued with a Fundamental value of S$0.520 as compared to its current stock price at S$0.295. Medtecs Intl' s management has also expressed willingness to consider paying out dividends from its bumper profits. Combined with the backdrop that many investors are looking to invest in sectors that can benefit from this outbreak, especially when stock market indexes worldwide are already at pre-Covid 19 levels, Medtecs Intl is a rare gem and should see its stock price continue to break record highs in the very near term. ------------------------------ Hope the above insights help everyone here in making your decision on Medtecs next week! 😊 Full article linked here:  https://flyinginvest.wixsite.com/mysite/post/sgx-546-si-medtecs-intl
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Investor8 Master	20-Jun-2020 23:06        Investor8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Off-hand, I recalled reading somewhere Medtecs paid a dividend during Sars epidemic. Not sure how much though. Got to dig for info. But I am pretty confident that dividends are coming in August. If not, it should come in February 2021 after their FY2020 year-end results.
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hokpin Supreme	20-Jun-2020 23:05        hokpin About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Pick up the durian fast if it drops to 0.275! glann92      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 22:14) Posted: will it retrace to 0.275 before chionging up?
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glann92 Senior	20-Jun-2020 22:14        glann92 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	will it retrace to 0.275 before chionging up?
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furnaces Veteran	20-Jun-2020 22:13        furnaces About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	New daily covid-19 reaches record high at 181k cases yesterday. Demand and pricing for medical grade PPE can only go up. WHO: COVID-19 pandemic is 'accelerating,' in 'new and dangerous phase' Published: June 19, 2020 at 1:48 p.m. ET The COVID-19 pandemic is "accelerating" and a record number of new cases in a single day were reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on Thursday, WHO director-general Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu said during a news conference on Friday. The WHO said there were more than 150,000 new cases of the coronavirus on Thursday, and about half of those cases came from the Americas. There have been more than 8.5 million cases in total, with nearly half a million deaths, since the virus first gained international attention in January. The U.S. has the most number of cases worldwide, with about 2.2 million cases and at least 118,000 deaths. Elsewhere in the Americas, Chile and Peru have both reported more than 230,000 cases at this time. "The world is in a new and dangerous phase," Tedros said. "We call on all countries and all people to exercise extreme vigilance." https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-covid-19-pandemic-is-accelerating-in-new-and-dangerous-phase-2020-06-19
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wenyen Master	20-Jun-2020 21:56        wenyen About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	But 2020 is good year for them, if turn out no dividend shareholders will kpkb.. mgmt wont let tat happen Bennytan23      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 20:16) Posted: they did actually... But its not consistent.. Usually only on good years then they reward us 😢 Due_Dilligence      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 19:48) Posted: None at all since IP
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Bennytan23 Senior	20-Jun-2020 20:16        Bennytan23 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	they did actually... But its not consistent.. Usually only on good years then they reward us 😢 Due_Dilligence      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 19:48) Posted: None at all since IPO tofudidi      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 16:41) Posted: whats the dividend they used to payout
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Lumafa Member	20-Jun-2020 20:15        Lumafa About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Medtecs did pay dividends in the past https://sginvestors.io/sgx/stock/546-medtecs-intl/corporate-action Due_Dilligence      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 19:48) Posted: None at all since IPO tofudidi      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 16:41) Posted: whats the dividend they used to payout
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