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Lucky03
Elite |
18-Sep-2014 21:36
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Economist offers bright 5-year outlook for US containerized exports
Corianne Egan, Associate Editor | Sep 17, 2014 5:55PM EDT Full-size chart U.S. containerized exports will grow in the next five years on the back of a strong construction demand around the globe, JOC Group Economist Mario Moreno says. In his five-year forecast for U.S. containerized exports, Moreno said export growth will total an average of 2.4 percent, higher than the 1.6 percent growth from 2009 through 2013. The lion?s share of that growth, at least in the short run, will come from forest projects and other building materials exported to emerging countries, but other commodities could help as well. ?I am also on the watch for an upturn in exports of capital goods, provided the strengthening of the U.S. dollar does not put U.S.-made equipment out of reach,? Moreno said. A slowing world economy and extreme drought conditions in California have hurt U.S. containerized exports, which have dropped 0.7 percent in the first half of 2014 as compared to the first half of 2013. Moreno's projection was thusly downgraded, from 1.8 percent growth to a negative 0.6 percent growth for 2014. But for 2015, Moreno's forecast tells a different and more positive story. For 2015, he said he is raising his outlook to 3.3 percent growth from 2.6 percent in 2014, ?owing to expectations for increased expenditures on construction and improved demand in Asia and Europe," Moreno said. The U.S. dollar will likely strengthen, Moreno added, raising prices for foreign buyers of U.S. goods. Because of the extreme drought in the California, this year, agricultural exports will be in reduced supply, also causing prices to rise. The slowdown in global manufacturing is expected to continue, so Moreno said he expects to see further declines in wastepaper exports, metal scrap, cotton and other commodities. "I am also less optimistic about containerized auto exports for the near-term, even as there are increasingly more vehicles available for export," Moreno said. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2014 global growth projection from 3.7 percent to 3.4 percent in its July update. The revision reflects first quarter weakness in the U.S. economy, since reversed, caused by a harsh winter and significant inventory overhang. There are also subdued expectations in the emerging markets sector, including China, India, Russia and Brazil, Moreno said. The disappointing performance is temporary, however, the IMF said. It has predicted economic growth of 4 percent for 2015. Contact Corianne Egan at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter: @CEgan_JOC. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
18-Sep-2014 21:19
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Looking forward to more news of rebound in Eurozone.
DUBLIN (AP) -- Ireland's battered economy bounced back strongly in the second quarter, growing 1.5 percent from the quarter before and a very strong 7.7 percent from a year earlier. The figures were published Thursday by the country's national statistics office. Exports and business investment contributed strongly to the increase in economic output. But consumer demand remained weak. Personal expenditure increased only 0.3 percent. 18 hrs of Traffic Lessons jillfraserdaringtosucceed.com Ireland is continuing its recovery from the eurozone's crisis over high debt. In Ireland's case, a real estate boom collapsed, leaving banks saddled with bad debt. A government guarantee of bank finances made the government's own debt soar, and austerity policies of tax increases and spending weighed heavily on the economy. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-Sep-2014 02:03
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If APL can't capture significant share of the growth in US market and economy, they seriously don't deserve to be known as 'American President Lines' !!!!
JOC Group economist upgrades forecast for US import growth JOC Staff | Sep 16, 2014 1:28PM EDT Full-size chart The U.S. economy came roaring back in second quarter of 2014 from its dismal (minus-2.1 percent) performance in the first quarter. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis?s preliminary estimate, U.S. output posted a seasonally adjusted, annualized expansion of 4.2 percent in second quarter. The increase was driven in part by higher domestic expenditures on consumption goods that had been put off because of unusually harsh weather in the first quarter. There were positive contributions as well from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential and residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, JOC Group Economist Mario Moreno says. Total first-half 2014 inbound shipments increased 5.1 percent year-over-year, just 0.9 percentage points above Moreno's March projection. Given the slightly stronger-than-expected first half, and that economic conditions in the U.S. are improving, Moreno said he is upgrading the 2014 imports projection to 6.7 percent annual growth, up from the March projection of 5.9 percent. The current projection is underpinned by an anticipated 2.1 percent increase in U.S. real income growth for the year, which is slightly below the forecast from March, Moreno said, largely because of the sharper-than-expected first-quarter decline. After the 4.2 percent output increase in the second quarter, the final two quarters of the year will yield trend or near-trend growth of 3.0 to 3.1 percent as consumer spending picks up speed and hiring continues to expand, he said. Last July, hiring hit its highest level since 2007. The U.S. unemployment rate will continue to slide over the next two quarters, Moreno said, at least until the Fed decides to finally enact a rate increase sometime in the middle of 2015. He said he expects rate increases will be small and gradual, with little negative effect over the ongoing economic expansion. Thus, the U.S. economy is forecast to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 2.8 percent over the five-year period 2014-2018, upgraded by 0.3 points from his March projection. With respect to import prices, Moreno anticipates the domestic-international price ratio will continue to favor imports in the short run, particularly as geopolitical risks intensify and investors look increasingly for the safe haven of U.S. dollar-denominated assets. The U.S. dollar will therefore strengthen significantly, he said, assisted not only by geopolitical risks but by increasingly loose monetary policy in Europe where the recovery has recently stagnated, in part because of the new sanctions regime being imposed on Russia by the U.S. and the EU. In spite of Middle East turmoil, Moreno expects oil prices to remain tame as increased domestic output is bolstered by increased production in Kurdistan and elsewhere in the Middle East. Thus far in the year, oil prices have not reacted badly to the challenges of war in the Ukraine and ISIL extremism in Iraq, Syria and beyond, and there is little reason to suspect this will change, he said, at least before the end of 2014. For these reasons, "I forecast that total U.S. containerized imports will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.7 percent during the 2014-2018 period, unchanged from the March projection," Moreno said. For the prior five-year period (2009-2013), imports expanded only 1.1 percent a year. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
16-Sep-2014 23:17
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NOL is expected to witness major corporate restructuring including asset divestment and possible turnaround. Should be a good time to average. It has been almost a month and it should not be too far from any update on the divestment plan. There are many favourable indicators besides the above including falling fuel cost (see below), higher container volume, stabilizing freight rate and higher operating efficiency. However, NOL is regretfully not as aggressive as many investors have hope to take more drastic measures to turn the company around sooner. It's recent corporate reorganization along functional lines rather than geographic boundary is an apparent effort to have better management oversight of APL and to look for more synergy at global level across the various units of NOL. Q3 result announcement on Oct 31 will be closely watched.
Dropping bunker fuel prices bode well for carriers Corianne Egan, Associate Editor | Sep 15, 2014 3:38PM EDT Bunker prices have fallen to their lowest level in over a year after a three month slide, and oversupply may keep fuel costs for container lines relatively low throughout the end of the year. For the last three months, bunker fuel prices in Rotterdam, a global indicator, have steadily declined. The average price per metric ton for high sulfur bunker fuel has dropped a total of 5.2 percent, and low sulfur bunker fuel showed a similar trend, declining 4.4 percent. Bunker prices have dropped steadily since July, with low sulfur bunker fuel prices dropping 4.4 percent int he past 9 weeks. The downward spiral is primarily due to oversupply in the market and demand is slumping in Europe and China, according to the Wall Street Journal.And while there has been plenty of conflict in the top oil-producing countries ? issues in the Middle East continue to rear their head, while Russia and Ukraine are still involved in conflict ? there has been very little effect on the worldwide oil supply. The majority of carriers reported lower fuel costs in the second quarter from April through June, led by Maersk Line, which said part of its 25 percent year over year revenue increase was due to falling bunker prices. Year to date, both low and high sulfur are prices have dropped significantly. High sulfur prices have dropped 6.6 percent, or $39, per metric ton. Low sulfur prices have dropped by a larger amount, 9.1 percent of $56 per metric ton. But the trend is poised to continue through the third quarter. Noticeable price erosion drops began in July, when the average price for high sulfur bunker fuel was down 3.9 percent from July 2013 and the average price for low sulfur bunker fuel was 0.4 percent lower than last year. Average high sulfur bunker prices in August were down 6.2 percent from August 2013 prices, averaging $566 per metric ton. Low sulfur fuel was down 7 percent from August 2013 to $575 per metric ton. In the first two weeks of September, the trend continued: average high sulfur prices lowered by 6.8 percent to $558 per metric ton, as low sulfur fuel dropped 9.3 percent to average $567 per metric ton. Bunker fuel prices typically follow the pricing of crude oil. BRENT, an index of spot market fuel prices, reported the price per barrel at $99. This week's pricing was the first time BRENT sank below $100 per barrel this year. This week?s average pricing in Rotterdam, provided by BunkerVision, showed high sulfur bunker fuel dropped 2.6 percent this week. At $551 per metric ton, high sulfur bunker fuel was 7.7 percent lower than the same week of last year. Low sulfur bunker fuel came in at $560 per metric ton, 2.5 percent lower than last week and 10.5 percent lower year over year. Contact Corianne Egan at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter: @CEgan_JOC.
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Davidson
Senior |
16-Sep-2014 19:58
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Hi Expert I have some lot at $1.12. Is this good time to buy for average? Any advise on this counter? TQ | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
15-Sep-2014 23:43
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Demolition of older ships is continuing to stay high. That should help to moderate supply.
Demolition Levels Still Coming Into Profile in International Shipping News 15/09/2014 In the initial aftermath of the world economic downturn, global vessel demolition hit 33m dwt in 2009, followed by 28m dwt in 2010 and 43m dwt in 2011. In 2012, sales for scrap peaked at 58m dwt, and then totalled 47m dwt in 2013. At such elevated levels, compared to the annual average of 18m dwt in the 2000s, it?s worth considering how high a total might be maintained in the years ahead. Downturn Upturn In the first 8 months of 2014, robust levels of demolition have continued, with total sales for scrap amounting to 23.5m dwt, including 10.0m dwt of bulkers and 6.4m dwt of tankers. As the graph shows, the average age of vessels sold for scrap in the year to date stands at 27.5 years, having fallen from around 30 years in the period 2009-11 when the weak earnings environment took hold and encouraged the clear out of old ?surplus? tonnage. However, with many of the units demolished coming from the larger, volume sectors where scrapping ages have generally been younger (the average age of demolition of VLCCs and Capesizes this year has been 21.0 and 24.1 years respectively), the average age of dwt capacity demolished has been lower than the average by ship number, standing at 24.7 this year. High Profile? Weak market conditions have ensured that owners have continued to scrap older tonnage, but, with markets by nature cyclical, to what extent could the elevated level of demolition continue in the future? Well, whilst it provides no guarantee of scrapping levels, the age profile of the fleet remains a useful indicator. In reality, market conditions, costs and timings of special surveys, and steel scrap market conditions help determine owners? decisions, and in today?s environment fuel efficiency and regulatory concerns also play a key role. Nevertheless, the profile of fleet capacity hitting ?average? scrapping age gives a hint as to the direction of future demolition levels. Help From The Aged The graph shows historical scrapping and capacity set to reach 25 years old each year. There?s also a long ?tail? of capacity older than 25 years (103m dwt built pre-1989), and the graph includes a share each year. This adds up to an indicator of ?scrap candidate capacity?. In 2017, when today?s 22 year old capacity hits 25, it reaches 23m dwt and by 2020 it is up to 35m dwt. Not all sectors have the same age profile, and many ships have a longer life than 25 years, but no doubt some younger tonnage will be scrapped too. What is clear is that more capacity was delivered in the mid-to-late 1990s than in the early 1990s and late 1980s, and this will drive scrapping at some point. On The Level? So, the big slump led to elevated levels of scrapping that the flattish deliveries of the 1980s and 1990s initially suggested it would be hard to maintain. However, scrapping has rolled on robustly, and the fleet?s age profile suggests that, in a few years, it may be easier to reach similar levels. Market conditions will mean that actual volumes move in cycles, but particularly with fuel and regulatory agendas to the fore, accelerated levels of demolition might become more common. Source: Clarksons Powered by Translate |
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Lucky03
Elite |
15-Sep-2014 21:48
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It has been almost a months since Reuters reported plan for APL Logistic divestment. NOL, about time for an update ! | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
15-Sep-2014 21:45
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Hapag-Lloyd CEO calls vessel overcapacity ?exaggerated?
Peter T. Leach, Editor-at-Large | Sep 14, 2014 12:04PM EDT Container freight rates will stabilize and may trend upward over the next few years despite the existing overcapacity of vessel space because of the expansion of existing carrier alliances and the creation of new ones, according to Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd. While Maersk Line CEO Soren Skou thinks rates will continue their long-term decline,Jansen is more optimistic. ?There?s going to be more stability because of the various alliances that are being formed,? Habben Jansen said in an interview with JOC.com. ?I don't think that there are a lot of people out there who have really been particularly good in predicting what the rates are going to do.? Hapag-Lloyd is a member of the G6 Alliance between six major carriers, which has been expanding its east-west services. In addition to the existing CKYHE Alliance which just added a fifth carrier to its ranks, two new alliances are being formed, the 2M Alliance between Maersk Line and Mediterranean Shipping Co., and the Ocean Three Alliance among CMA CGM, China Shipping and United Arab Shipping. EU antitrust authorities on Thursday gave Hapag-Lloyd the approval it needed for a merger with Chilean carrier CSAV, with conditions attached. At current levels, Habben Jansen said rates are too low to justify investment in the big new, fuel-efficient ships that carriers need to in order to cut their slot costs. Nevertheless, he thinks rates will start to improve. ?There are still a number of fundamentals that over time should have a somewhat upward effect on the rates,? he said. He pointed out that demand for vessel space is strong on a number of trade lanes as the global economy continues its recovery. ?If we look at the situation that we have seen this year, pretty much on all the large trades, there have been very high utilization levels for pretty much all the carriers.? As for the widely touted vessel overcapacity, Habben Jansen thinks it?s a bit of a myth. ?I think the overcapacity is highly exaggerated, and I also think it will actually come even closer together over the next two or three years.? He does not think overcapacity has a lot to do with the balance between supply and demand. ?I think that?s a little bit of a fairy tale. I think it?s something that?s being said quite easily, but usually not with a lot of real good data to underpin that,? he said. ?Let?s be honest, an imbalance of 1 or 2 percentage points should not be a huge issue. And looking at what?s happened over the last couple of years, and what?s currently happening in the orderbook, there?s not a lot of rationale, not a lot of logic on why there would be significantly more over-capacity in the years to come, compared to where we are today. I think if anything, that that is probably something that will help (support rates),? Habben Jansen said. ?I would still expect that net-net that we would actually see over the upcoming couple of years on average a somewhat higher rates than what we see today,? he said. Contact Peter Leach at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @petertleach. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
14-Sep-2014 14:00
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Perhaps the 'leak' of the sale of APL Logistic has to do with the GIC deal below. The amount of capital injection of US$700m slated for acquisition is close to the market talk of US$760m price tag for APL Logistic. Are they related ? Was the brief drop in NOL price of about 2.5c last thurs coincided with the announcement of the GIC acquisition which may have disappointed some investors preferring IPO ? The short sell volume less than 50 lots daily were unusually very low over last few days. Expecting some updates from NOL soon following the GIC deal ?
Singapore's GIC invests in US logistics firm AFP Friday, 12 September, 2014 Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC and two other investors have entered into an agreement to invest a combined $700 million in US firm XPO Logistics, the American company said. XPO Logistics said in a statement released in the United States on Thursday that it will use the funds from GIC, Canada's PSP Investments and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan "primarily for unspecified acquisitions". Surplus www.plccenter.com The statement, posted on the GIC website, said the investors will hold about 22 percent of XPO Logistics after the deal, which involves the sale of newly issued common stock and preferred stock. No breakdown of the investment was given. "We have a favorable view on the US economy and on the US logistics industry," said Lim Kee Chong, GIC's deputy group chief investment officer and director of integrated strategies. "We are confident that XPO's strong management team and sophisticated technology platform will enable XPO to become one of the long-term winners in the industry." XPO Logistics, which provides freight transportation services, is based in Greenwich, Connecticut. PSP Investments is one of Canada's largest pension investment managers, while the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan is the biggest single-profession plan in Canada. GIC, one of Singapore's two state-linked investment funds, manages the affluent city-state's foreign exchange reserves of well above $100 billion. It has investments across 40 countries in such assets as equities, fixed income, real estate and private equity. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
12-Sep-2014 17:04
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GIC might as well buy over APL Logistic !
[SINGAPORE] Singapore's sovereign fund GIC is joining PSP Investments and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan in together investing US$700 million in XPO Logistics Inc, the US company said, adding it plans to use proceeds for unspecified acquisitions. In a statement released in the United States, XPO said the deal will be carried out through the sale of newly issued common stock and preferred stock to the investors, who will hold about 22 per cent of XPO after conversion. Greenwich, Connecticut-based XPO, a provider of freight transportation services, has a market value of US$1.8 billion. GIC itself is investing US$250 million and will have a 7.5 per cent stake, a person familiar with the matter said. In the statement, Lim Kee Chong, GIC's deputy group chief investment officer, described XPO as set to become "one of the long-term winners in the industry". PSP Investments is one of Canada's largest pension investment managers and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan is the largest single-profession plan in Canada. - Reuters |
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Lucky03
Elite |
12-Sep-2014 02:24
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Not sure of any coincidence of the timing of the announcement below and the drop of NOL price. Soon, Hapag may start turning attention to NOL ?
[BRUSSELS] Hapag-Lloyd and Compania SudAmericana de Vapores secured conditional European Union approval on Thursday for their tie-up to create the world's fourth-largest container shipping company. The merger is important for the shipping industry which hopes more deals could help it to overcome the worst slump on record. And if regulators take a soft line on any concessions required to allow the deal to proceed, this could spur more consolidation in the industry. The European Commission said the clearance was conditional on CSAV withdrawing from two consortia on the trade between northern Europe and the Caribbean and South America's West Coast, where the merged entity would have faced insufficient competitive constraint to avoid a risk of price raises. "Through the commitments, our decision averts the risk that the merger between Hapag Lloyd and CSAV could lead to any price increase," EU Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said in a statement. Reuters reported on Sept 5 that the merger would be cleared by the Commission after the companies offered concessions. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
12-Sep-2014 00:12
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It is normal house traders pushes up NOL when they got wind of APl logistic sale/IPO, after 3 weeks no further news they just backed off and clear their hold position. Everything boiled down to the basic, NOL need to get back to a sustained profitability before the big boys throw in their lot and suppor the price upward movement. IT is a wait and see approach currently, but if any news regarding APL logisitc pop up again it would go up again. It back to boring trading session for NOL again, gonna kick those high management ass for dragging the cost cutting measures for so long, take like close to 3 years counting and cost cutting still ongoing. Like i earlier mentioned there just too much fat to be burned off NOl to returned it to lean and healthy financial condition, hope they divested off APL terminals as well and with disposal of APL logistic the debt ratio should be able to return to 1X from current 2.2X, share price would also benefit from a leaner NOL with lower operating cost. IT sucks really for anyone to buy int oNOL and hold so long due to slow ass management action, should see how banks did their restructuring, it only take 6 months lol massive closure of branch and cut thousands of employers in 1 shot lol. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Sep-2014 23:39
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Today's performance is disappointing but not unexpected. Technically, it closes the gap up around 19-20 Aug. Surprising that there are only 43 lots of short sell. Still appear to me a change of hands. It has been 3 weeks and due for some updates of the process of divestment. | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Sep-2014 15:30
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http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/marketinfo/marking_of_sell_orders/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gjR0cTDwNnA0t_E3NLA0_zQF9PT0NzA09fY6B8JLJ8KEg41CnQxCks1NDb04yAbj-P_NxU_YLciHIAu1pLpQ!!/dl3/d3/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/
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phileasx
Member |
10-Sep-2014 15:01
Yells: "The market and your trades and positions are all linked!" |
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hi, a noob question, how to check the daily short info?
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hotokee
Master |
10-Sep-2014 11:02
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Surprising to see NOL climbs back from the grave. Now it is above $1, Lol. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
10-Sep-2014 11:01
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CMA, USAV and China shipping form O3 alliance, meaning most of the top 20 are in alliance tie up. 2M most likely would ended up dead before it is actually formed with opposition from China again lol. This would mean that freight rate would bottom this year and next year start to stabilised due to inability of maserk and MSC to lower rate further without hurting their bottom line. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
10-Sep-2014 02:18
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range bound till 3q result out or more corporate announcement on apl logistic ipo/sale. noone got the balls to punt/short now. Privatisation would become very real after APL logistics spin off either thorugh IPO/sale, as there is very few or no container liner that can remain listed as pure play and are either had ship building/bulk commodity/oil related / logistic divsion to shore up investors interest. Days of NOL remaining listed is numbered, maybe next year gona be privatised by TH when the cost saving through newer fleet are fully realised.
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Sep-2014 01:23
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16 lots short sell on Sep 9. That must be record low ! | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Sep-2014 01:22
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Sorry, don't have info to be able to comment on that.
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