| Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg |
 Post Reply
|
|
NOL
|
|||||
|
spore1
Supreme |
20-Aug-2014 17:14
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Think may go down below 1.00 again then can consider to jeep in
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
earlybird14
Supreme |
20-Aug-2014 16:33
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Pour cold water again. When selling the headquarter, NOL share price performed the same way. Hopefully, the management can really use the money from selling their valuable asset wisely this time. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
hem2998
Veteran |
20-Aug-2014 16:30
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The guessing game has started....
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
hem2998
Veteran |
20-Aug-2014 16:29
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
*FLASH NOTE* Neptune Orient Lines - Potential sale of APL Logistics? (Hold, TP SGD1.05, NOL SP, Shipping) NOL selling logistics unit for USD750-900m, according to Reuters. If so, net gearing could drop below 1.8x from 2.2x. Likely use of proceeds: 1) pay down debt 2) reinvest in new vessels and 3) M& As. Special DPS possible, but debt paydown more prudent. Maintain HOLD and TP of SGD1.05, based on 1.0x FY15E P/BV. Click HERE to download PDF report Derrick Heng, CFA (65) 6432 1446 [email protected] |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Supreme |
20-Aug-2014 15:52
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
NOL got taxed on the profitable logistic branch and it terminal business even though the whole group is losing money. Explain why NOl want to split up it logistic arm to reduce taxes imposed. Next in line everyone would like to know if NOl would divest it terminal interest in US west coast, that parcel of assest also worth a lot. By the way due to the QE effect, every real estates are highly valued to reflect the abundant of cheap money in market. I am not surprised if the logistic arm fetch a higher price than US$750Mil. IF all go through as what lot of bro in forum forseen, then it is privatisation time for NOL since it liner arm do not need to be listed to get fund, they can tapped directly into temasek coffer. Question is how much temasek would pay to secure the remaining 33% of share, they fail once in 2006 at a price of $2.80.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
Lucky03
Elite |
20-Aug-2014 15:03
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Let's see the price movement when European market opens. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
granto
Master |
20-Aug-2014 14:55
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
NOL mulls future of APL Logistics: http://www.seashipnews.com/News/NOL-mulls-future-of-APL-Logistics/3w3c2545.html |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
counter
Veteran |
20-Aug-2014 14:42
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Good analysis but I am not so sure about the logic of your last sentence on the taxes. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
sgng123
Supreme |
20-Aug-2014 14:32
|
||||
|
x 0
x 1 Alert Admin |
If proven NOl selling logistic unit for US$750mil then prepare for the eventual privatisation of the whole group. Still remember liner division still got that hidden jewel terminal which according to market worth about 600- 800mil. Logistic division refer to the warehousing and intermodal business in US/india which is worth a lot considered currently freigth rate in land transport is soaring in US, US $750mil might be conservative, could go higher since nothing is confirmed yet. Then again i going to ask everyone in forum how much do a yearly revenue of US$8.8B business with established customers base worth is ?. Current stock price is basically too low, Temasek paid like 250Mil for the whole APL branch and it logistic unit donkey years agaon, now it appreciate quite a lot. Let see if the momentum continue into the rest of year, u gonna luv to see it moving up everyday due to speculation lol. By the way selling away logistic branch also take away the taxes imposed on group for the logistic profit.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
counter
Veteran |
20-Aug-2014 14:14
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dividend yielding counters such as REITS are good long-term investments. However, this is less so in a rising interest rates environment. Further, loss-making counters may not necessarily be bad long-term investments, especially when they are undervalued and have the potential to turn profitable in the long term. I do not presume to know the amount of profit you have made in your investment career but the amount of profit that I have made from investing in non-dividend yielding counters with a long-term view alone may not necessarily be less than that. Therefore, one should not confine himself to dividend yielding counters for long-term investments.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Lucky03
Elite |
20-Aug-2014 12:48
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
There may be concern that selling away a profitable arm and leaving behind a loss making one will only make the EBITA looks even more miserable. So while there may be a short term gain but 'long term' impact. This assumption is valid based on the scenario that the liners business continue to lose money. I believed NOL management is fully aware of this implication. So, it could be either streamlining to get ready to be 'married off' or the liners business should be profitable hence forth and the sales will give NOL ability to lower gearing and hence lower finance expense and improving P&L plus healthier cash position for working capital as they need to take advantage of the increasing containership volume for market share. 2 other big questions -
1. Will NOL still call for rights issues ? 2. Will privatization by Tamesek still an option ? Impact of option 2 to share price is no brainier. Impact to option 1 is more complicated. On surface, it will be negative but if the story of the rights issue is for funding strategic M&A activities with a convincing story, then it is anybody guess if the price will rise or fall. Take OCBC's case in point by issuing rights to acquire the HK bank. The price initially dropped but now it is hitting 8 years high.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
hem2998
Veteran |
20-Aug-2014 12:29
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
wonder who ' leaked' it....obviously they want the rest of teh world to compete for the stake sale...the show is just starting.... CE
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
earlybird14
Supreme |
20-Aug-2014 12:28
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
750USmillion only???? I thought can sell more than 1billion. Anyway, all the best to holders, especially those buy above 1 dollar today.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
ascend88
Master |
20-Aug-2014 12:01
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
its all over the news.... Hot Stocks: NOL shares jump 3% on news of potential logistics unit sale
[SINGAPORE] Shares in Singapore' s Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) jumped 3 per cent on Wednesday to S$1.01, their highest level in more than three months, on news that it is considering selling its logistics unit. Reuters reported earlier that NOL, a shipping and logistics company in which Singapore' s state investor Temasek Holdings owns a 67 per cent stake, is hoping to sell its logistics business for more than US$750 million. - Reuters |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Lucky03
Elite |
20-Aug-2014 11:41
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Assuming that Hapag is still interested in the M&A, they are not into logistic business and NOL may have to first unload the logistic arm to streamline and focus the liners business.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
hem2998
Veteran |
20-Aug-2014 11:38
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Agreed.
In fact i loaded more. Logical next step is to raise funds via rights...or m&a with a bigger fish to ensure survival or privatise by temasek ... For rights...the px must be attractive...so it shld hover ard 1.20 for someone to take rights at 1. CE.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Lucky03
Elite |
20-Aug-2014 11:28
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Don't rush to unload as this move is not a short term development but has a long term bearing that will result in re-assessment of the fundamental of NOL and likely resulting in an improvement of ratings and hence adjustment to TP by analysts. I'll like to see how to arrive at the worth of NOL and that will help to set the mid-term fair value. Consider selling when the stock is near fully valued.
Trading is a different strategy. Ideally can have a combination of both for a balanced approach. That will mean allocating a certain percentage for short term trade while holding some for mid-term returns to realise its full potential for capital appreciation. For long-term investment, better look for dividend yielding counters with potential to ride out any cyclical waves and appreciate along with inflation. Needless to quote the guru - Warren Buffet.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
jj7007
Veteran |
20-Aug-2014 11:25
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Sadly, share price and their biz may not be correlated. SMRT, ppl now only may remember the rocket chionging, but there was a time when ppl pui chao nua when it kept dropping lol.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Qanghoo
Supreme |
20-Aug-2014 11:17
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Good qn: Can NOL do an SMRT? Answer is no, simply because while NOL operates in an extremely harsh environment where survival depends on the global economic climate and how proactive management response to market conditions and the cut-throat competition among rival operators, SMRT is a cash cow in a market with practically no competition, at present at least. When costs go up, no need to tax the brain too much to to see how operations can be managed more cost-effectively. Just ask for fare increase and it shall be given eventually, so that it not only returns to profitibility soon enough but is able to make sure that dividend is paid year in year out. How many companies listed on SGX can afford such luxury like them. Just look at their latest results.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
phileasx
Member |
20-Aug-2014 11:16
Yells: "The market and your trades and positions are all linked!" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
wow, today surprise gap up. should last a while 10%-20% range based on the press down action day before. watch the Harpex index see if it continue to edge up. The global shipping is seeing better prospect now, but still too early to predict NOL' s reversal. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||