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Aizai8 Member	18-May-2017 08:44        Aizai8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sharing the below report copied from Valuebuddies. MBKE Market Insight unit has added Sunsine to its Growth stocks basket that includes multi baggers AEM Holdings and Best World. Maybank KE Retail Research China Sunsine is a major producer of rubber chemicals, primarily rubber accelerators, which are used in the curing of unprocessed rubber to make it more durable, mainly for the tyre industry. With a FY07-16 sales volume CAGR of 17%, China Sunsine has risen to become the top rubber accelerator producer with global market share of 18% (FY08: 7%), and PRC market share of 31%, and serves more than 65% of the Global Top 75 tyre manufacturers, including Bridgestone and Michelin. It is also an excellent proxy to the fast growing tyre market in China.  Taking advantage of China' s push towards greater environmental protection, the group' s environmentally compliant facilities have benefitted from higher demand as the authorities move to shut down competitors' factories that fail to meet regulatory standards.  Near term catalysts for the stock include 1) its exposure to the huge tyre market in China, 2) capacity expansion and economies of scale, and 3) improved investor awareness. Proxy to the Chinese tyre market growth The China tyre market has expanded at 2006-2016 CAGR of 7.9%, which is expected to sustain given the healthy vehicle population growth (2016: +13.7%), further buoyed by tyre replacements. China Sunsine has constantly ploughed back profits to meet this demand as capacity soared 4.8x since IPO in 2007.  Capacity expansion plans With its FY16 utilization rate reaching 89%, the group will be expanding annual capacity by 13% to 172,000 tones over the next 18 months. This will comprise: - 30,000 tons of TBBS accelerators: Phase 1 (10,000 tons) is currently undergoing trial run, and should begin commercial production in 2H17. - 10,000 tons of insoluble sulphur. Trial run is expected to commence in late FY17, with commercial production in FY18. Environmental edge China Sunsine' s emphasis on environmental protection has paid off as the Chinese government tightens its grip on environmental standards. In several episodes since FY14, government crackdown on non-compliant producers has choked market supply of accelerators. Consequently, the group has been able to charge higher prices and capture market share.  From this perspective, China Sunsine' s environmental practices give it a competitive edge as tyre-markers switch to more sustainable/ less risky suppliers. At the same time, competitors require time and capital to retrofit factories/overhaul processes to meet the required standards. Respectable track record and returns The group has been profitable throughout its listing history, achieving earnings CAGR of 12.6% over the past 10 years to reach Rmb245.3m in 2016. Average ROE over the decade was a respectable 16%.  As rubber chemicals make up only 6% of the total cost to produce a tyre, the group has generally been able to pass on higher raw material costs to its customers. Over the past three years, it commanded gross margin of ~27%.  Operating cashflow has been positive since IPO, except for FY12. At 31 Mar, the group was sitting on a cash hoard of Rmb337.9m (~$0.14/share). Sale of treasury shares The group recently placed out 27.7m of treasury shares (5.6% stake) at $0.646 each to a group of investors, including Asdew Acquisitions (owned by renowned investor Alan Wang).  This aim was to improve the float and liquidity of the shares. Management has earmarked net proceeds of $17.5m for payment of future dividends. Sunsine has paid a total of $0.115/share in dividends over 10 consecutive years since IPO in 2007. Valuation China Sunsine is currently trading at 6.6x trailing P/E. By applying a conservative 0.8x PEG ratio on its 10-year earnings CAGR of 12.6%, the stock could be worth $1.10, based on 10x trailing P/E.  In view of its good earnings prospects and attractive valuation, Market Insight is adding the stock to its Growth basket at an entry price of $0.70.
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HuatAh108 Senior	15-May-2017 12:25        HuatAh108 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bb accumulating at 0.715... junnies      ( Date: 12-May-2017 10:27) Posted: retail buyers bid in small lots, sellers dump 100k at one go, one timing, so what the transaction shows is multiple transactions at many different lot sizes " Sold to Buyer" all in one point of time. its quite easy to tell if you observe the nature of the transactions. whereas the lot sizes and timing of the " Bought from Seller" transactions are very varied, usually spread over many time frames and with smaller and random lot sizes. anyway if you' re long-term holder holding on is no problem. i want to maximize my capital, that' s why i took it out. what BBs are thinking of and where the price will move, i have no idea, but i just make a guess on probability that the share price may hover around this range for the forseeable future.
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HVRRVH Elite	14-May-2017 17:56        HVRRVH About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	http://www.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2016-06-21/1202379925.PDF It's in Chinese and from the prospectus of a tyre company in China but I think we can draw some inference. Pg 141-142 basically said on average every existing car need to replace 1.5 tyre per year. So the demand of tyre is not entirely depend on new car sales. Aizai8      ( Date: 14-May-2017 17:00) Posted: An article has been posted in Nextinsight.  Link below. https://nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/939-2017/11498-china-sunsine-expect-64-6-c-to-be-floor-2q-to-be-strong-and-dividends-to-climb It mentioned  that Sunsine' s business will be affected by new car sales in the last part of the article. How does  replacement tyre sales  impact Sunsine' s business?
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Aizai8 Member	14-May-2017 17:00        Aizai8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	An article has been posted in Nextinsight.  Link below. https://nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/939-2017/11498-china-sunsine-expect-64-6-c-to-be-floor-2q-to-be-strong-and-dividends-to-climb It mentioned  that Sunsine' s business will be affected by new car sales in the last part of the article. How does  replacement tyre sales  impact Sunsine' s business?
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HVRRVH Elite	12-May-2017 10:55        HVRRVH About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I have just reviewed my own research notes that accumulated over the past 3 years. I am long term bull on this. Business numbers all add up and if the 3 mentioned funds really hold for long term then I am even more confident. Short term fluctuations is normal in the market for whatever reasons. Most importantly the company's business and operation must be profitable with future growth. Sunsine still fit the bill so I stay. If for some reason someone try to push the price down, I should secretly be happy as it presents a chance to accumulate.
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junnies Member	12-May-2017 10:27        junnies About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	retail buyers bid in small lots, sellers dump 100k at one go, one timing, so what the transaction shows is multiple transactions at many different lot sizes " Sold to Buyer" all in one point of time. its quite easy to tell if you observe the nature of the transactions. whereas the lot sizes and timing of the " Bought from Seller" transactions are very varied, usually spread over many time frames and with smaller and random lot sizes. anyway if you' re long-term holder holding on is no problem. i want to maximize my capital, that' s why i took it out. what BBs are thinking of and where the price will move, i have no idea, but i just make a guess on probability that the share price may hover around this range for the forseeable future.
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HuatAh108 Senior	12-May-2017 09:26        HuatAh108 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bb trying to lure the retail buyers, but no one taking the bite.. Who can predict which direction will the price go? Assuming all selling has stopped, the only way is up.. HuatAh108      ( Date: 12-May-2017 09:04) Posted: You say its the big boys who dump the 100k, but whos the one buying the 100k? Retail buyers? junnies      ( Date: 11-May-2017 20:56) Posted: i was tracking the buy/sell transaction quite closely. after the sell-off from 76 to 72, the price stabilised for a while whilst a steady dumper kept dumping shares (roughly 100k at one shot multiple times). then it sold down to 69, before stabilising at 70-705. everytime the bid volume of 70 built up, a 100k bundle of shares would be dumped. i think at this point the BBs know if they let the price stabilise here, retailers will gradually bid in, allowing them to keep dumping and dumping. retailers managed to push it up to 705-710 a few times, but a big hand quickly dumped it back to 70. from what i could tell, once the price reached 70, most of the buyer were retailers(occasionally a big hand would buy, but mostly the lot transactions were < 10k) whilst a huge chunk of the selling was in 100k lots mixed with a few smaller players. I also dumped in disgust la, would rather put my money elsewhere rather than having it be stuck by a dumping BB.
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HuatAh108 Senior	12-May-2017 09:04        HuatAh108 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You say its the big boys who dump the 100k, but whos the one buying the 100k? Retail buyers? junnies      ( Date: 11-May-2017 20:56) Posted: i was tracking the buy/sell transaction quite closely. after the sell-off from 76 to 72, the price stabilised for a while whilst a steady dumper kept dumping shares (roughly 100k at one shot multiple times). then it sold down to 69, before stabilising at 70-705. everytime the bid volume of 70 built up, a 100k bundle of shares would be dumped. i think at this point the BBs know if they let the price stabilise here, retailers will gradually bid in, allowing them to keep dumping and dumping. retailers managed to push it up to 705-710 a few times, but a big hand quickly dumped it back to 70. from what i could tell, once the price reached 70, most of the buyer were retailers(occasionally a big hand would buy, but mostly the lot transactions were < 10k) whilst a huge chunk of the selling was in 100k lots mixed with a few smaller players. I also dumped in disgust la, would rather put my money elsewhere rather than having it be stuck by a dumping BB.
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HuatAh108 Senior	12-May-2017 08:40        HuatAh108 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I hope the BB will push up to 0.80 again.. flyersummer      ( Date: 11-May-2017 23:23) Posted: This is where you are wrong. BB wants to trick you into dumping so that they can buy at your sell price. Once they fully absorb enough shares, they will push the price up.
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HuatAh108 Senior	12-May-2017 08:24        HuatAh108 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If I dump when the market jus open, would hAve made a profit. But just after an hour, I was making a loss.. Hopefully more retail buyers come in to buy up the price from now on... junnies      ( Date: 11-May-2017 20:56) Posted: i was tracking the buy/sell transaction quite closely. after the sell-off from 76 to 72, the price stabilised for a while whilst a steady dumper kept dumping shares (roughly 100k at one shot multiple times). then it sold down to 69, before stabilising at 70-705. everytime the bid volume of 70 built up, a 100k bundle of shares would be dumped. i think at this point the BBs know if they let the price stabilise here, retailers will gradually bid in, allowing them to keep dumping and dumping. retailers managed to push it up to 705-710 a few times, but a big hand quickly dumped it back to 70. from what i could tell, once the price reached 70, most of the buyer were retailers(occasionally a big hand would buy, but mostly the lot transactions were < 10k) whilst a huge chunk of the selling was in 100k lots mixed with a few smaller players. I also dumped in disgust la, would rather put my money elsewhere rather than having it be stuck by a dumping BB.
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flyersummer Senior	11-May-2017 23:23        flyersummer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This is where you are wrong. BB wants to trick you into dumping so that they can buy at your sell price. Once they fully absorb enough shares, they will push the price up.
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junnies Member	11-May-2017 20:56        junnies About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	i was tracking the buy/sell transaction quite closely. after the sell-off from 76 to 72, the price stabilised for a while whilst a steady dumper kept dumping shares (roughly 100k at one shot multiple times). then it sold down to 69, before stabilising at 70-705. everytime the bid volume of 70 built up, a 100k bundle of shares would be dumped. i think at this point the BBs know if they let the price stabilise here, retailers will gradually bid in, allowing them to keep dumping and dumping. retailers managed to push it up to 705-710 a few times, but a big hand quickly dumped it back to 70. from what i could tell, once the price reached 70, most of the buyer were retailers(occasionally a big hand would buy, but mostly the lot transactions were < 10k) whilst a huge chunk of the selling was in 100k lots mixed with a few smaller players. I also dumped in disgust la, would rather put my money elsewhere rather than having it be stuck by a dumping BB.
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HVRRVH Elite	11-May-2017 20:05        HVRRVH About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I am not entirely happy too but first off, the sales of the treasury shares has netted the comany handsome profit, I think in the range of sgd 10 million. If institutional investors express inerest and there are hugh profit to be made, then perhaps the deal was struck on this premise? 27 million shares absorbed by these institutional investors and it seems well and good and I can stomach the discount. Besides, maybe we can expect more dividends.  One other point I want to discuss/evaluate is who are the sellers (and buyers) today? Actually this is the main point. If these instituional buyers bought and sold the shares immediately, I think the management has to take a hard look at themselves. In short, they have been taken for a ride because their stated objective, i.e., to have instituional investors onboard, would not materialise. But this is a pointless point really becuase we won' t know who are the sellers unless it involved SSH. In which case, only the chairman is SSH in sunsine!  Since I have no answer for the above point, I can only focus again on the fundamental of the company, which I think remain sound and I think is still on track of generating close to sgd 10 cents eps per year every year. That' s more important. Like bro Ash said, this thread getting unusaully ' hot' . With due respect, many seems to be just vested or punting so naturally disappointed that price shot up on open but receded shortly after. As a long term investor, I guess I better don' t be affected by this short term event and should focus on the company' s business and its prospects instead. Just sharing my thoughts.    hardwired      ( Date: 11-May-2017 19:23) Posted: For all thes years management has done all the right things and has managed the company extremely well. CS is a good company but I' m disappointed with this move. HuatAh108      ( Date: 11-May-2017 18:19) Posted: Do they care about retail investors like us? No they dont. They sold the shares to keep in their deep pocket.
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hardwired Senior	11-May-2017 19:23        hardwired About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	For all thes years management has done all the right things and has managed the company extremely well. CS is a good company but I' m disappointed with this move. HuatAh108      ( Date: 11-May-2017 18:19) Posted: Do they care about retail investors like us? No they dont. They sold the shares to keep in their deep pocket.. hardwired      ( Date: 11-May-2017 18:03) Posted: The management of CS really kicked it' s investors in the groin by selling its treasury shares for such a low price. Until this incomprehensible move, it has been an absolute stellar performer. Hope there is a good reason for the sale.
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grace8 Member	11-May-2017 19:13        grace8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks! junnies      ( Date: 11-May-2017 17:27) Posted: P/E can check via google. otherwise, go through their financial statements/annual report and divide the market capitalisation by the net profit attributable to shareholder. P/E just tells you the ratio between the market cap vs earnings, its not an indicator to buy/sell/take profit at all. in general, people buy stocks in order to appreciate their capital. one way stocks appreciate your capital is by giving you dividends. so, a company that gives good dividends will naturally attract buyers. however, one also has to consider whether the company' s business model is capable of growing or if it will decline, since growth = more profits = more dividends, whilst decline = less profit = less dividend. China sunsine has grown and is capable of growing its earnings for the forseeable future, and has further paid off all its debt so most likely the dividends will increase for the forseeable future, so unless you find another company that you think has an even better potential, there' s no need to take profits. or you can learn technical analysis which is really impossible to teach without first hand experience. ta basically teaches you indicators when the market is (temporarily) overenthusiastic and when you should take a profit (eg recent steep surge to 80c) grace8      ( Date: 11-May-2017 16:56) Posted: Hi. Can anyone tell me at the price of 70c what's the PE? What would be a reasonable PE to take profit for this stock? Thanks!
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HuatAh108 Senior	11-May-2017 18:19        HuatAh108 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Do they care about retail investors like us? No they dont. They sold the shares to keep in their deep pocket.. hardwired      ( Date: 11-May-2017 18:03) Posted: The management of CS really kicked it' s investors in the groin by selling its treasury shares for such a low price. Until this incomprehensible move, it has been an absolute stellar performer. Hope there is a good reason for the sale.
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hardwired Senior	11-May-2017 18:03        hardwired About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The management of CS really kicked it' s investors in the groin by selling its treasury shares for such a low price. Until this incomprehensible move, it has been an absolute stellar performer. Hope there is a good reason for the sale.
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junnies Member	11-May-2017 17:27        junnies About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	P/E can check via google. otherwise, go through their financial statements/annual report and divide the market capitalisation by the net profit attributable to shareholder. P/E just tells you the ratio between the market cap vs earnings, its not an indicator to buy/sell/take profit at all. in general, people buy stocks in order to appreciate their capital. one way stocks appreciate your capital is by giving you dividends. so, a company that gives good dividends will naturally attract buyers. however, one also has to consider whether the company' s business model is capable of growing or if it will decline, since growth = more profits = more dividends, whilst decline = less profit = less dividend. China sunsine has grown and is capable of growing its earnings for the forseeable future, and has further paid off all its debt so most likely the dividends will increase for the forseeable future, so unless you find another company that you think has an even better potential, there' s no need to take profits. or you can learn technical analysis which is really impossible to teach without first hand experience. ta basically teaches you indicators when the market is (temporarily) overenthusiastic and when you should take a profit (eg recent steep surge to 80c) grace8      ( Date: 11-May-2017 16:56) Posted: Hi. Can anyone tell me at the price of 70c what's the PE? What would be a reasonable PE to take profit for this stock? Thanks!
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grace8 Member	11-May-2017 16:56        grace8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi. Can anyone tell me at the price of 70c what's the PE? What would be a reasonable PE to take profit for this stock? Thanks!
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ash902 Veteran	11-May-2017 16:47        ash902 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	china ss suddenly thrust into limelight ah, with this never seen before volume. Sure attract trader/punters/shorters. Fundmentally nothing' s change. May not like this news about the treasury shares but to label it as a fraud just to get $17 million is surely to far fetch la.  HVRRVH      ( Date: 11-May-2017 15:37) Posted: Agree with you. Let' s BB play first. We also don' t know how individual big investors think of this. People like Chia KEE Koon and Robert stone. Not counting the placement shares the volume is also extremely high. Who has so many shares to sell and who is buying? Let' s the dust settle first and focus on the fundamental. I hope the company can clarify why no lock in period if really no lock in period and also whether these buyers are selling their shares today.  junnies      ( Date: 11-May-2017 14:23) Posted: the share price should hit 0.8 no problem in the long run. China Sunsine has been steadily growing its revenue, market share and net profit and has continually expanded its plans for expansion. but long-run might be the second or third or even fourth quarter results. unfortunately, this latest sales of treasury shares has dented my confidence in their management. as previously mentioned, the decision to sell at such a low price is very puzzling and the reason given is unconvincing. this makes me feel like they just want to sell the shares in order to distribute dividends to themselves (since they hold a big part of the shares) and don' t even bother properly pricing their shares.  based on the share movement, i see very heavy, steady dumping which makes me think its the BBs who recently acquired the shares doing the dumping for a quick profit. i think the BBs are going to steadily dump at 0.7 now if so, the support price might be 0.65, the price where the BBs bought their shares at. if you can afford to hold long-term, nothing to worry.
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