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NOL
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earlybird14
Supreme |
11-Aug-2014 17:00
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Like that also can say positive, this is fact twisting! Years ago, Maersk and MSC reported profit, you said the same thing. 2 years later, OOCL reported profit, you said the same thing again. NOL is leaving behind more and more parties. Really a paid pumper
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sgng123
Supreme |
11-Aug-2014 16:29
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OOCL reported 180 mil profit for 1H14, another good example of cost saving maximisation by having a higher load facor and newer fuel efficient ship. Lower revenue but higher volume make up for it. NOl is moving in that direction but u need t ogive it a few quarters to complete it overhaul. It takes time for a ship as huge as NOl to change course and headed for the right direction but it is making progress every quarter. Lot of bro here in forum just lose patience cos it take like donkey years for ship to move lol, but remember this is a american liner got lot of labor union backing worker, so to make changes take time it not like european/asian where the CEo got the ultimate say and cut cost immediately. American needtime to adjust so be patience and wait out the recession. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 13:25
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Agreed but ultimately, NOL needs to work towards moderating its gearing. The wild swing of Finance Expenses has significant impact given that its Profit/Loss base is low now. The explanation for realised gain attributed to hedging instruments and loan repayment by subsidiary last 2 years not very clear to me.
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ronleech
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 13:23
Yells: "Believe in yourself. Ride with the waves......" |
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this is a counter backed by some big shot and everytime lost money but brokage house keep asking ppl buy... china share lousy? This is is worse... |
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sgng123
Supreme |
11-Aug-2014 13:12
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don need to bother much about that 2Q result since it is over. Should be concerned about current peak session if it can hold, SCFI last week drop a little due to a 8% drop in asia-europe trade but transpacifc holding to their gain. IF the gain hold on for the rest of august, peak session most likely returns and u can be sure of a US$100-150 increase to NOL average freight rate for 3Q. From 3Q14 till 3Q15, we should be seeing cost saving of average 100mil per quarter as a result of charters returned and new ships replacing it. 3Q should also see some form of cost saving from higher load factor in transpacifc from G6 alliance. Just ignor earlybird comment, he only rant in forum when NOL share price go down if all ever noticed, NOL in green he keep quiet when it go red he start his rant. Currently most brokerages are neutral on ship neither sell or buy all at HOLD with a higher TP price built in. Let see if 3Q can be the game breaker that rerate ship and move ship north. Investors who still holding on after all these years should keep holding on, no point selling it and suffer losses when u could see profit in about 1-2 years time. I see this trading pattern on ship lot of time 3X in over 20 years of investment, share price trading below water and when cost saving revive profit, share price double/triple within a year, very big movement when economy back to normal, currently we are in a recession without the crash of property and stock market so all should take note. It is the QE effect lol !!
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 13:08
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I wonder why no analysts pointed that out. My concern is that for Q3 FY13, it reported a positive US$7.8m+ for Finance Expenses and if again there is no similar 'realised gains' for Q3 FY14, then the swing can be significant again. I do not have any information on how these 'realized gains' are derived from and the said amount.
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 12:53
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There is one item that I can't comprehend very well in Q2 statement that is material for the higher loss is that Finance Expenses increased by US$33m in Q2 FY14 compared to Q2 FY13. I would have thought that's due to interest expense but the statement said it is due to 'realised gains' from financial hedging instruments in Q2 2013 ? Does that mean that Q2 2013 gain of US$603k was a result of the 'realised gains' and there is no similar 'realised gains' in Q2 FY14 and hence explained the much higher net expense of US$32m ? | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 12:26
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There is a program sell order at 1 lot almost every other minute to buyer while adding another lot to the sell q. A potent strategy to contra players. Hope not many contra players now. At about 60 lots per hour, it will not clear 0.94 by end trading day.
If spot rate can hold and stabilize around Aug GRI hike and the peak season holds this year plus NOL accelerates it's returning of the more expensive chartered ships, we can expect some re-rating by Analysts. Q3 is traditionally a profitable quarter but last year peak season fell short of expectation so the base is lower for comparison this year. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
11-Aug-2014 12:24
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Doesn' t matter, just to be aware that you are holding a time bom.
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counter
Veteran |
11-Aug-2014 11:22
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things like that do happen when someone runs out of ideas
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Trespasserx
Senior |
11-Aug-2014 11:04
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Quite a lame comment.. Last week or so when the market is in deep red, nol is either status quo or in green, he didn't cite that.. Come on early bird u can argue better..
That comment too sissy le la ha
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 10:55
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It will not be a meaningful engagement here when the views are quite extreme.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
11-Aug-2014 10:45
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Let' s see 1 year later. You may not hold so long. Going down in green market, not a good trend.
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counter
Veteran |
11-Aug-2014 10:35
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no worries at all just thinking that your assumption is very super extremely damn ridiculosuly unrealistic
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earlybird14
Supreme |
11-Aug-2014 10:33
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no need to worry if you are confidence with NOL. However, this is what i can foresee 12 month later if Container market freight rate is still flat at current level which make NOL making loss and NOL fail to refinance their 800million unsecure loan followed by another 400million in next 24 months. Just bear in mind, a company listed in US market or any market with 800million unsecured debt and 3 years loss has become a penny stock. NOL is lucky to be listed in SGX under Temasek Umbrella.
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counter
Veteran |
11-Aug-2014 10:00
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a very super extremely damn unrealistic assumption
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earlybird14
Supreme |
11-Aug-2014 09:40
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12.5% higher is after share price crash. If NOL crash to 50cents, it will accelerate privatization or sales of NOL at 60cents. Just an assumption.
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Aug-2014 16:19
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Maybe NOL can consider the ideas from Ti blog below to help fill up its back haul :)
Container Ship Cruising- Around the World in More Than 80 Days Holly Francis / 2 weeks ago Telling someone you?ve booked a cruise for your holiday this year will probably conjure up images of plush surroundings, nightly entertainment and copious amounts of food and drink- think Titanic but without the iceberg. Imagine then, trying to explain why you?ve chosen to forgo the entertainment and socialising of a traditional cruise to take your trip on a near-deserted container ship. With passage on a container ship costing the same (if not more) as your traditional entertainment-filled cruise and with the number of fellow passengers in the single digits, the appeal of this growing phenomenon is perhaps not immediately apparent. If you?re travel plans are all about getting from A to B in the quickest and most cost efficient way then this is unequivocally not the mode of transportation for you. A typical container ship cruise costs on average $100 a day per person and it can take anywhere between 2 weeks and 3 months to reach your destination (depending on your ports of departure and debarkation). It?s going to involve substantial cost financially and when it comes to your precious time spent you?re certainly not going to give Phileas Fogg a run for his money either (you?ll probably hope to avoid going 20,000 leagues under the sea too!). However, according to some of those who have taken a freighter cruise it?s more about the journey than the destination. If the idea of a few weeks or months with nothing but a few good books on your eReader and your own thoughts for company sounds idyllic then maybe a container ship cruise is just the ticket. With a number of travel companies springing up specialising in this unique mode of transport there appears to be a growing appetite for it. The surroundings are going to be nicer than you first imagine, the food is going to be better than expected and you won?t have to work a day of your travels. You?ll probably have a steward to make sure your linens are changed and your needs are met and meals will most likely be eaten with the ships officers and captain. In fact, in an effort to highlight the benefits of this form of travel the shipping company CMA has an entire page dedicated to the perks on container ship cruising which highlights not only the exceptional standard of accommodation but also the audio-visual room, the library, the fitness centre and the swimming pool! So, if its downtime you?re looking for to finish that novel you?ve been working on, a simple bit of peace and quiet or time to finish that list of the greatest books of all time perhaps a container ship cruise is just what you need after all ?It is good to have an end to journey toward but it is the journey that matters, in the end?. With shipping companies always looking for ways to increase their margins in may be that making container ship cruises more widely available could add the smallest of revenue bumps- after all sometimes the smallest bump is the difference between being in the red or the black. Global Freight Forwarding If this has got you thinking about all that freight moving around the globe then you may be interested to know Transport Intelligence will soon be publishing its annual Global Freight Forwarding report. Further details can be found here or by contacting me directly Holly Francis, E: [email protected] |
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Aug-2014 15:49
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Let it speeds up the sales or privatization of NOL then, like what they are doing to MAS now to allow them a better chance to restructure it. Perhaps there will be a similar upside of about 12.5% to current price. I'm sure NOL has slightly better prospect of turning around than MAS ! Whatever, the point here is to evaluate the various options possible on the table and make the investment decision short term and long term, accordingly.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
10-Aug-2014 15:34
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800 million debt is unsecured in 12 months times. 400million is unsecured in 24 month times. Stock like this in us market has become penny. | ||||
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