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Latest Forum Topics / Oxley    Last:0.08 --  Post Reply
Is Oxley a good buy at current price?
stanip
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29-Aug-2020 18:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		A correct observation from an experienced trader... even 21 cents very difficult to get in past 6 months in decent quantity. Looking at Oxley' s long term chart, share price was last at 20-21 cents almost 10 years ago when they were many times smaller than today... Not easy for price to drop below this level unless the market collapses...then too scary to buy.  :(
 

Goldfinger      ( Date: 29-Aug-2020 15:13) Posted:

Ching and Low usually snap up 20 cents to 21 cents range - so hard to get below 20 cents. Unless have a lucky day when they are busy.

iinvestor      ( Date: 29-Aug-2020 11:52) Posted:

Difficult times ahead.....any sale of stevens hotel will be very tough now....

Mass market condo sales now with record umemployment doesnt look good next year.....wait for better entry price

 
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Goldfinger
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29-Aug-2020 15:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Anyway if want fast profits - better to buy medical stocks. Property stocks need to wait. If want combi / look for Aspen which has both property and Gloves.
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Goldfinger
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29-Aug-2020 15:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Ching and Low usually snap up 20 cents to 21 cents range - so hard to get below 20 cents. Unless have a lucky day when they are busy.

iinvestor      ( Date: 29-Aug-2020 11:52) Posted:

Difficult times ahead.....any sale of stevens hotel will be very tough now....

Mass market condo sales now with record umemployment doesnt look good next year.....wait for better entry price

 

orchardplaza.p8      ( Date: 29-Aug-2020 11:00) Posted:

As reported in their latest financials, book value is nearing a realistic valuation at 0.25 cents. Given near term debt expiries and lack of cash flow coming from residential development due to work stoppages, liquidation values of investment assets will continue to experience pressure in upcoming financial year. Equity losses of 288m coupled with dividend extraction of 63m should translate into 8 cents drop in share price to 0.13-0.135 in the near term. This valuation ties in well with my personal assessment of their book value at 0.17-0.19 and ascribing a 15% discount to book which translates to share price of 0.14. 

Interestingly, despite generating huge losses, the company has decided to distribute a big dividend instead of reinvesting cash back into the company - bearing in mind the chairman owns 80% of the company. 

The stock should bottom in Q1-Q2 of 2021, look for entry point at around 0.13-0.135 level. Risk points: construction stoppages, increase in construction cost, increase scrutinty of govt on extension of maturity for residential OT
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look@bright
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29-Aug-2020 12:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Take dividend first lor
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iinvestor
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29-Aug-2020 11:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Difficult times ahead.....any sale of stevens hotel will be very tough now....

Mass market condo sales now with record umemployment doesnt look good next year.....wait for better entry price

 

orchardplaza.p8      ( Date: 29-Aug-2020 11:00) Posted:

As reported in their latest financials, book value is nearing a realistic valuation at 0.25 cents. Given near term debt expiries and lack of cash flow coming from residential development due to work stoppages, liquidation values of investment assets will continue to experience pressure in upcoming financial year. Equity losses of 288m coupled with dividend extraction of 63m should translate into 8 cents drop in share price to 0.13-0.135 in the near term. This valuation ties in well with my personal assessment of their book value at 0.17-0.19 and ascribing a 15% discount to book which translates to share price of 0.14. 

Interestingly, despite generating huge losses, the company has decided to distribute a big dividend instead of reinvesting cash back into the company - bearing in mind the chairman owns 80% of the company. 

The stock should bottom in Q1-Q2 of 2021, look for entry point at around 0.13-0.135 level. Risk points: construction stoppages, increase in construction cost, increase scrutinty of govt on extension of maturity for residential OTP

orchardplaza.p8      ( Date: 28-Jul-2020 15:13) Posted:

Personal view on Oxley is their book value is probably sitting in the range of 0.17-0.19 cents and fair value is 15-20% below book. Thread carefully guys, I do not have a position - I hope everyone does well! 
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Goldfinger
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29-Aug-2020 11:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		And I disagree with you. Ching is a market mover and visionary. I have faith. Thank you.

orchardplaza.p8      ( Date: 29-Aug-2020 11:00) Posted:

As reported in their latest financials, book value is nearing a realistic valuation at 0.25 cents. Given near term debt expiries and lack of cash flow coming from residential development due to work stoppages, liquidation values of investment assets will continue to experience pressure in upcoming financial year. Equity losses of 288m coupled with dividend extraction of 63m should translate into 8 cents drop in share price to 0.13-0.135 in the near term. This valuation ties in well with my personal assessment of their book value at 0.17-0.19 and ascribing a 15% discount to book which translates to share price of 0.14. 

Interestingly, despite generating huge losses, the company has decided to distribute a big dividend instead of reinvesting cash back into the company - bearing in mind the chairman owns 80% of the company. 

The stock should bottom in Q1-Q2 of 2021, look for entry point at around 0.13-0.135 level. Risk points: construction stoppages, increase in construction cost, increase scrutinty of govt on extension of maturity for residential OTP

orchardplaza.p8      ( Date: 28-Jul-2020 15:13) Posted:

Personal view on Oxley is their book value is probably sitting in the range of 0.17-0.19 cents and fair value is 15-20% below book. Thread carefully guys, I do not have a position - I hope everyone does well! 
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orchardplaza.p8
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29-Aug-2020 11:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		As reported in their latest financials, book value is nearing a realistic valuation at 0.25 cents. Given near term debt expiries and lack of cash flow coming from residential development due to work stoppages, liquidation values of investment assets will continue to experience pressure in upcoming financial year. Equity losses of 288m coupled with dividend extraction of 63m should translate into 8 cents drop in share price to 0.13-0.135 in the near term. This valuation ties in well with my personal assessment of their book value at 0.17-0.19 and ascribing a 15% discount to book which translates to share price of 0.14. 

Interestingly, despite generating huge losses, the company has decided to distribute a big dividend instead of reinvesting cash back into the company - bearing in mind the chairman owns 80% of the company. 

The stock should bottom in Q1-Q2 of 2021, look for entry point at around 0.13-0.135 level. Risk points: construction stoppages, increase in construction cost, increase scrutinty of govt on extension of maturity for residential OTP

orchardplaza.p8      ( Date: 28-Jul-2020 15:13) Posted:

Personal view on Oxley is their book value is probably sitting in the range of 0.17-0.19 cents and fair value is 15-20% below book. Thread carefully guys, I do not have a position - I hope everyone does well! 

orchardplaza.p8      ( Date: 25-Jun-2020 07:41) Posted:

Oxley is a SELL 
Having seen Oxley build a global real estate empire over the past 5 years and flying the Singapore flag high in Ireland, Malaysia, UK, I have always been an admirer to the stock. The growth pace has been phenomenal, and the Company has benefitted from the low interest rate environment and resultantly took on excessive leverage to fuel their global expansion. Because of this high gearing, I disagree with many of you that the stock is undervalued.

Vulnerability of Book Value
The Company has accumulated a portfolio of income producing assets over the years including Novotel and Mercure at Stevens Road which currently sit on their books at $1.1B. If you recall, these hotels were previously reported to have found a potential buyer at $1B who later decided to walk, presumably because of a mismatch in price expectations. The hotels were subsequently put on the market in March 2019 but again failed to find a buyer.
Benchmarking to the valuation of Orchard Hotel owned by CDL Hospitality REIT and Orchard Rendezvous Hotel owned by Far East Hospitality both of which are located in much superior locations, Novotel and Mercure at Stevens Road appear to be overvalued even after adjusting for its freehold status. I expect significant mark down of valuation in the next financial report.
Space at Tampines which is a retail/industrial building near IKEA would most likely be adversely impacted by Covid-19 and possibly facing valuation mark-down as well.

Funding from Non-Local Banks
It is widely advertised that Oxley has one of the highest gearing against its industry peers and is seemingly going through a normalization phase to lower its gearing, or is it? It is interesting to study the key banking relationships of Oxley which is dominated by foreign banks including the likes of Deutsche Bank and HSBC. These banks typically charge a much higher interest rate than local banks and have stricter financial covenants. I would project that if the Company takes a loan of 60% LTV on their Steven Road assets from a bank like HSBC, the interest rate will most likely be 4% or translating to almost $24m of interest every year. This is a hefty sum and interest coverage covenant will most likely be challenged when government related business due to Covid taper off in Q3/Q4. Most importantly, if valuation gets marked down by 15% from $1.1B to $935m, could there be a requirement to top up $100m of equity?

Conundrum of Sales Velocity vs. Rising Construction Cost  
I acknowledge that the sales velocity of Oxley projects is at a reasonable pace and they have sold most of units in their inventory but is this positive or negative? Developers in Singapore have thin development margin and to move units in this climate, one must reduce price. With the recent labour restrictions, Minister Lawrence Wong has said that it is inevitable that the construction industry copes with rising cost. My personal view is a 10% reduction in sale price coupled with a 10% increase in cost including delay costs would most likely wipe out all your profits, well you are essentially working to pay off the banks. It is also noteworthy that Oxley has a few projects of smaller scale and the incremental cost can be significant as a percentage of cost.
Wrapping Up
The above is my opinion and quite often I am wrong. Compare Oxley to similar stocks like Tuan Sing, Tuan Sing has similar leverage profile but much superior assets on their books and well positioned for recovery. If you would like residential exposure, I would opt for developers with large scale projects like UOL, UIC, CDL...  these developers can out muscle contractors and quite often build better projects at lower cost.
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Joelton
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29-Aug-2020 10:31     
 
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 Alert Admin
Oxley Holdings posts S$296.3m net loss for H2 despite gross profit quadrupling
 
PROPERTY developer Oxley Holdings recorded a net loss of S$296.3 million for the second half of the financial year ended June 30, on the back of other losses incurred due to the Covid-10 pandemic, it said in a statement after the market closed on Friday.
 
The H2 net loss was a sharp reversal from the S$62.5 million net profit in the year-ago period. It came despite revenue quadrupling to S$638.9 million, from a restated S$160.3 million in the year-ago period.
 
Oxley did not release standalone fourth quarter figures.
 
Gross profit for the second half also quadrupled to S$149.3 million, from a restated S$37 million in the year-ago period.
 
But other losses increased by S$310.4 million, which Oxley said was mainly attributable to the pandemic. These included a fair-value loss of S$48.7 million on investment properties in Singapore, and non-recurring losses of S$210.7 million.
 
The non-recurring losses included the disposal of its investment in an associated company, Galliard Group a receivable of proceeds from the completion of the share sale of Oxley Beryl from " unfavourable circumstances due to Covid-19" and unrealised foreign-exchange losses of S$23.7 million. The Oxley Beryl share sale generated a S$130 million profit.
 
Excluding these losses, the full-year net profit would have been S$13.1 million, said Oxley.
 
Loss per share for the second half was 7.02 Singapore cents, compared with earnings per share of 1.51 Singapore cents in the year-ago period.
 
Oxley has recommended a final dividend of 1.5 Singapore cents per share, compared with one of 0.68 Singapore cent per share in the year-ago period. Together with the interim dividend of 0.32 Singapore cents paid in March, the full-year dividend is 1.82 Singapore cents.
 
The latest results take Oxley' s full-year net loss to S$280.6 million, compared with full-year net profit of S$96.8 million the year before.
 
Full-year revenue was S$1.23 billion, up 80 per cent from a restated S$686.1 million the year before.
 
In the second half of the financial year, Oxley' s operations were hampered by lockdowns due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with construction expected to be delayed by four to six months for development projects in Singapore, Ireland, and Malaysia.
 
But Oxley added: " Since the lifting of the ' circuit-breaker' restrictions, all the group' s construction sites in Singapore have gradually returned to full operation, and the group can look to higher revenue, profit recognition as well as progressive billings of the sold units in the new financial year."
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stanip
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29-Aug-2020 10:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Right move for Oxley to bite the bullet and clean up their balance sheet once and for all.  It had been a concern with investors in the past on their leverage and cashflow. The 8% generous dividend is a strong show of balance sheet strength which is extremely positive.

The one-off/write-offs are now behind Oxley. $13m profit before non-recurring items actually is not bad. With a strong Dow and the global theme of economic recovery, Oxley price might have hit a bottom and they were at $38 cents right before covid. Given the continued momentum in property market, I am also holding... like the 8% dividend alot. :)
 
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tanchingku
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29-Aug-2020 09:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Total dividend = 1.5 cents plus 0.0032 in Mar 2020 = 0.0182
Over share price of 0.215, translate to 8.5% dividend yield.

Loss but cash rich, 8.5% dividend yield, the return is better than many huge profit-making companies and banks. 
 

look@bright      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 18:13) Posted:

Dividend 0.5 cents + Special diviend 1 cents = 1.5 cents

SujantoHenry      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 17:36) Posted:

Oxley Result : loss $  288,007,000
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moonsun
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28-Aug-2020 23:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Gd dividend yield ! I hold too !

Goldfinger      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 20:10) Posted:

This big fat dividend, I like a lot.  Aiyah the marked down losses were expected. This COVID hits everyone.

look@bright      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 18:13) Posted:

Dividend 0.5 cents + Special diviend 1 cents = 1.5 cent
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pinkelephant
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28-Aug-2020 20:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am happy with the dividend! As of August 2020, Oxley has unbilled contracts of $3.6 billion to be collected progressively. In fact, excluding the fair value investment loses, the company net profit is $13 mio. Further more, Oxley has sold many big property unit in the month of July and Aug 2020. I will continue to hold Oxley shares!!!
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Goldfinger
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28-Aug-2020 20:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This big fat dividend, I like a lot.  Aiyah the marked down losses were expected. This COVID hits everyone.

look@bright      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 18:13) Posted:

Dividend 0.5 cents + Special diviend 1 cents = 1.5 cents

SujantoHenry      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 17:36) Posted:

Oxley Result : loss $  288,007,000
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kimleng
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28-Aug-2020 18:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Last few years , I know got one company make a loss in oversea venture , then merge with local big firm , then loss become profit... after that these merged company bought by another big company..
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look@bright
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28-Aug-2020 18:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Dividend 0.5 cents + Special diviend 1 cents = 1.5 cents

SujantoHenry      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 17:36) Posted:

Oxley Result : loss $  288,007,000
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SujantoHenry
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28-Aug-2020 17:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Oxley Result : loss $  288,007,000
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Stocky901
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28-Aug-2020 16:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Monday jialat! Huge losses expected.

tanchingku      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 15:16) Posted:

Oxley will be releasing result tomoroow.

MBULLISH      ( Date: 25-Aug-2020 06:08) Posted:

Oxley stake in Aspen is 10 percent
It will be most significant when Aspen become a price like $1.50 for Oxley

Who knows Ching alrd approach Aspen for more shares as he may want to be involved in gloves 🧤

Wait for further developments
Oxley also has many lands like Aspen in Malaysia


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tanchingku
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28-Aug-2020 16:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Looking the way they collect the shares, the result might be better than expected as I heard.

tanchingku      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 15:16) Posted:

Oxley will be releasing result tomoroow.

MBULLISH      ( Date: 25-Aug-2020 06:08) Posted:

Oxley stake in Aspen is 10 percent
It will be most significant when Aspen become a price like $1.50 for Oxley

Who knows Ching alrd approach Aspen for more shares as he may want to be involved in gloves 🧤

Wait for further developments
Oxley also has many lands like Aspen in Malaysia


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tanchingku
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28-Aug-2020 15:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Oxley will be releasing result tomoroow.

MBULLISH      ( Date: 25-Aug-2020 06:08) Posted:

Oxley stake in Aspen is 10 percent
It will be most significant when Aspen become a price like $1.50 for Oxley

Who knows Ching alrd approach Aspen for more shares as he may want to be involved in gloves 🧤

Wait for further developments
Oxley also has many lands like Aspen in Malaysia


cherintc      ( Date: 24-Aug-2020 22:06) Posted:

Holds about 10% Aspen worth 33Mil. Oxley is worth 928Mil. Aspen is about 3.6%, not really significance now. BUT could be worth much more if Aspen continue to surge. Oxley 52 week low is 0.195. A safer bet.if you believe Aspen going to outer space.
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MBULLISH
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25-Aug-2020 06:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Oxley stake in Aspen is 10 percent
It will be most significant when Aspen become a price like $1.50 for Oxley

Who knows Ching alrd approach Aspen for more shares as he may want to be involved in gloves 🧤

Wait for further developments
Oxley also has many lands like Aspen in Malaysia


cherintc      ( Date: 24-Aug-2020 22:06) Posted:

Holds about 10% Aspen worth 33Mil. Oxley is worth 928Mil. Aspen is about 3.6%, not really significance now. BUT could be worth much more if Aspen continue to surge. Oxley 52 week low is 0.195. A safer bet.if you believe Aspen going to outer space.
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