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Ascendasreit
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Nov-2023 12:17
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Nov-2023 11:04
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Ascendas is now at 2.82 : 2.83 with no sign of exhaustion. But it will be a slow grind from here taking out bid by bid and edging higher. How high she will go, only the monkey knows. Yes, I believe there is a monkey in the driver' s seat. This monkey, I believe collected from 2.72 onwards. Yesterday, he drummed up the beat to hasten his collection at 2.76 to 2.80. How high the price can climb this time is totally dependent on which peak this monkey has set his sights on. But dont expect the price to go up in a straight line. The monkey needs to sell on the way up as well to prevent overheating and to recoup his capital to roll it back into the game again. If anyone is thinking of asking me ..... " Still can buy?" My answer is ..... " You are late." Coz this rally started at 2.47. Counting to 2.83 Day High, she has been running for 36 cts already. If you buy now, your risk premium is very high. Sure, if the monkey is willing, she can run to 2.90. Or even 3.00. If the monkey is willing. But this rally can also fizzle out anytime without warning. And if so, those who buy now will have to cut to keep their loss small. When you buy at the top of the mountain and you are wrong, it is better to cut than to LOON. If my mother and my brothers ask me still can buy or not, I will say to them let this round go. Wait for the next one. There is something I need to say upfront. When my SELL orders are filled, I will post here to inform. But just becoz I have sold doesnt mean you should to. Why ar? Becoz I suck at timing. When it comes to analysis, chart reading and reading market direction, I may seem okay. But when it comes to timing, I suck. Many times, and I want to stress...MANY TIMES.... people who were reading my postings and charts and had used my analysis and guidance to trade the stocks I was talking about.... they got in at a better entry price and sold at a higher price than mine. You see, analysis and chart trading and what not is one thing. EXECUTION is another thing altogether. And people who read my postings and used my analysis bought at lower prices and sold at higher prices than me and made more bids all becoz their EXECUTION well surpassed mine. Which is why I said just becoz I have sold doesnt mean you should. If you have been doing well using your own methods to decide when to sell, stay with it. Continue to use the same method. Since it has served you well. Do not becoz I have sold, you let it affect your judgment and you then sell too at a price which is lower than what you had planned to sell at. When it comes to timing, if your own timing has been okay, continue to use your own methods to time when to sell. Dont follow me. Becoz I suck at timing. I am trying to improve. Still working on it. It is an ever ongoing work-in-progess. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Nov-2023 09:47
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Read my quoted post below first. As I was asking you all, so was it accumulation or was it distribution? Today......the market has answered that question.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Nov-2023 09:32
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Nov-2023 09:29
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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" 3-Niner to HQ. This is Squadron Leader. Target destroyed. I repeat. Target destroyed." HQ : " Roger that, Squadron Leader. Good job, Major. Return to base." Squadron Leader : " Aye Aye Sir !" . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Nov-2023 09:24
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Air strike was successful !!! Mission accomplished. Resistance at 2.80 and 2.81 both taken out. Good job pilot !!! . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Nov-2023 09:15
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Ascendas..... now 2.79 : 2.80. The bull army commander has radioed HQ to request for an air strike to take out the resistance at 2.80. HQ replied..... " Your request is approved. Air strike is on the way." . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Nov-2023 08:51
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Nov-2023 08:49
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
20-Nov-2023 17:39
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
20-Nov-2023 12:12
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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For those who got here only recently and missed my earlier post when I explained who are monkeys, in the market, these people are known by many names : BBs Strong Hands Invisible Hands Stock Manipulators Market Makers Chng Kay Dealer etc I call them monkeys. Why ar? Becoz monkeys are by nature sibeh jee siaw one. People who manipulate prices do what they do to corn us to BUY or CUT LOSS or SELL or SELL SHORT. These people are ko ka jee siaw. That' s why I call them monkeys. When there is a monkey in the room manipulating the stock price, I will say " a monkey is in the driver' s seat" . . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
20-Nov-2023 11:35
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Using charting software to draw the trendline, my estimate is that downtrend resistance level is at around 2 84/2.85. 2.85 happens to be the Previous Swing High reached on 15 Sep 2023. Assuming we entertain a scenario where Ascendas breaks above that trendline resistance, then my guess is she will rise to around 2.88 to 2.90. Then turn around to do her pullback to backtest the now resistance-turned-support at 2.84/2.85. She may or may not choon choon bounce off 2.84/2.85. This is becoz the monkey may want to corn both LONGs and SHORTs. If 2.84/2.85 downtrend resistance breaks this time, the monkey knows bulls will place their stop loss right below that level. The monkey also knows that bears will open short positions if the price breaks below 2.84/2.85 on its way down during the pullback. So the monkey will arrange for the price to fall below 2.84/2.85 to " soak up" the SELL orders there. This is referred to by TA practitioners as the " Liquidity Pool" . At that region right below 2.84/2.85 are SELL (stop loss) orders by bulls as well as SELL (to open short positions) orders by bears. By allowing the price to pullback to that region, the monkey gets to soak up all the SELL orders of both bulls and bears. After that then the price resumes its new bull trend. At this juncture, bulls who had their stop loss triggered will shout NABEH. And bears who saw their short positions opened will now have to scramble to buy at a loss to cover their short positions. I cant say as of now whether the above will happen. Her story hasn' t been written yet. All options are on the table. She can Lao Hong and come back down. Or she can break above that downtrend resistance. Or a third scenario - she can hover and range trade at 2.72 to 2.80 plus minus to await the next market-moving news to hit the market. Then she reacts. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
20-Nov-2023 11:01
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
20-Nov-2023 00:39
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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When Ascendas was on the way down, buying her was not that difficult. Why so? Becoz when she was at the 2.60s.... then 2.50s....and then 2.40s..... these were prices which are okay to be stuck in if it turns out you bought too early. When the next high tide returns, she will go back to the 2.70s and 2.80s. Whatever positions you have at 2.60s or 2.50s or 2.40s will all be out of the woods and sitting on profits by then. But can the same be said when she is at the 2.80s ? If I buy her at the 2.80s, the only way for me to get out is if she goes to the 2.90s. She may not want to do that. And if she doesnt want to go any higher and her upmove ends, then what about my positions bought at the 2.80-series? I will have to cut to keep my loss small. A small loss is a lot a lot easier to make back. A larger loss is difficult to make back and is very bad for us psychologically. The problem with being stuck at the 2.80-series is if that is where the mountain peak is and she cannot go higher, the low tide will come next which means lots of pain if you intend to sit on that paper loss and LOON it till the next high tide returns. But you see, your position bought at the 2.80s is at the high... the next high tide may not go above where you are. The only way for you to get out unscathed is if she wants to climb to an even higher peak. She may not want to do that. Not now. Then how? So cutting to take a small loss is a better option. Do your buyback when she has bottomed out. A small loss is easier to make back. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
19-Nov-2023 23:57
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Both Ascendas and MIT share the same attributes. The largest shareholder of both REIT is none other than Temasek Holdings. The largest shareholder of MIT on record is Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd. But if you check who is the largest shareholder of Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd, it is Temasek Holdings. So Temasek Holdings is the de facto largest shareholder of MIT. Other than Temasek, many of the big funds are also the top 10 largest shareholders in both REITs. This speaks volume of how fundamentally solid these 2 REITs are. Which explains why many smaller funds, institutional investors and wealthy high net worth retail investors chase these 2 REITs. And where these big boys go, so will a large following of small retail investors and traders like you and I go. Which is why every selldown is a buying opportunity for these 2 damn solid REITs. Ascendas' top 10 largest shareholders.  MIT' s top 10 largest shareholders.  However, from my own observations, it seems to me that Ascendas is more preferred by these big boys and the smaller traders/investors who piggyback than MIT. Why do I say that ? Becoz although MIT is trading at a lower price and you can buy more of MIT with the same amount of capital, yet when the rebound comes, Ascendas runs faster and further. Just take the current round as an example to do the math. Ascendas' bottom was at 2.47. MIT' s bottom was at 2.10. Assuming seed money is 100k. 100k can buy 40,400 shares in Ascendas at 2.47 or 47600 shares in MIT at 2.10. So far, Ascendas ran 33 cts from 2.47 to a High of 2.80. MIT ran only 18 cts from 2.10 to a High of 2.28. 40,400 shares x 33 cts = $13,332. 47600 shares x 18 cts = $8,568. Difference is $4764 more profits if you put your chips on Ascendas. It isn' t just this time. Most of the time if not all the time, Ascendas gives us more bangs for our bucks if we place our chips on her. That' s one of the observations in my story book. |
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chewch1
Member |
19-Nov-2023 21:43
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Thank you bro wave. Very good investing philosophies and practical advice. And as always, always with a sense of humour :) happy Sunday folks and looking forward to this week!! Maybe we will see a new high? |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
19-Nov-2023 18:40
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Thank you Bro Chew for sharing your thoughts and journey with us. I dont get to read much from the rest of you. So for taking the trouble to pen your thoughts, I truly appreciate your effort and time. I am sure there are more of you who at some point in time jumped onto this boat. I wish you will come out too to share your journey with us as well. Together, we can inspire and encourage others to likewise take the plunge to put money to work and profit from it. In the market, we are rewarded for taking risk. Risk taking is unavoidable in this game. But it can be minimized. It can be managed. It can be reduced. Over the past 7 weeks, I have shown how we can reduce our risk when we take on the market. And one way is to trade only good stocks at the right price levels. Like Ascendas when she was at the 2.40s, 2.50s and 2.60s. Bro Chew... yes, Ascendas pays 15 to 16 cts dividend yearly. But there is no need to hold her for a year to earn that dividend. We can earn it from her price movement as well. By catching her Swing Highs and Lows. In fact, doing that will enable us to earn double or triple her annual dividends if we do it right and manage to catch most of her upmoves when her buying opportunities are presented to us. To answer your question, dont sell just becoz you have already made 16 cts from the price movement. Sell becoz the upmove has slowed down and it looks to you like it may have ended and the stock is about to turn. In this respect, we cannot always get it right. If we get it right, enjoy the rewards. If we dont and we sell too early, its okay. Move on and wait for the next buying opportunity. Ascendas REIT together with Mapletree Industrial Trust are already my retirement stocks. Whether I am into one or the other will depend on which one falls to my BUY levels first. Once I start buying into one, my style is to set aside most of my capital to continue to average down into that same one. For myself, I do find that splitting my capital into half for each of them will not be as effective as if I go all-in or almost all-in into the one I buy first. This is becoz using all my capital in one REIT will empower me to bring my average price closer to the bottom than if I split my troops into two battles. When the U-Turn comes, the closer your average price is to that bottom, the sooner your positions will be in the money as the rebound progresses. Seeing your troops out of the woods and very quickly is very good psychologically when we fight battles. And this can be achieved with more success if we fight only one battle than two. Or worse, many battles. If you have many millions to put to work and you can set aside a million for each battle, that' s different. A million per battle is quite enough. But when you have a smaller army to fight your battles, splitting up your troops to fight at multiple fronts is not good for your troops' morale. For those who dont want the thrills and spills of trading and are contented with just the annual dividends, no right or wrong there. Different strokes for different folks. Some prefer passive investing where they just park their money and let the market do the rest of the work for them. But for those who love thrills and spills and are game, go for the Swing Highs and Swing Lows using a tried and tested viable strategy which requires patience and discipline to wait for a low tide to go out there to collect the oysters and sea shells and whatever treasures the sea can offer. Then when the next high tide returns, you can sell your treasures to reap your harvest. And keep doing this over and over again and most likely, you will be more profitable than a purely dividend investor. When you trade Ascendas, be patient. Do not be a kan cheong spider and anyhow buy when the price is not right. But when the time to buy has come, do not hesitate and do not be scared. Somehow, beg steal or borrow, go bring out your bolas and Ka Ka go out there and buy. I said be patient. I did not say be a patient trader. There is a difference between the two. Got difference mare? Got. Be patient means have the discipline and wisdom to wait till the price is right. Then buy. Be patient means a conscious and controlled state of mind to wait for conditions to be favourable before you put your capital to work. Then how is that different from a " patient trader" ? Got. Got difference. A " patient trader" is someone who trades the stock market from a hospital bed. Waaaahahahahaha........  Juz kiddin. 
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chewch1
Member |
18-Nov-2023 21:57
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Wave, you are very spot on with all of the emotions & price actions so far. All the intra-day and inter day posts are capturing what I' m feeling exactly! Haha. I am still vested but sold off 50% at 2.78. I Had put the sell price at 2.78 when the price was at 2.72 and didn' t expect it to hit that in a quick 2 days. I had intended to simply buy and hold to collect dividends, but price was too good. Now I feel mixed because it feels like I killed the ' golden goose' . as a rule of thumb, if going for dividend investing, when should you ever sell? Is it only when it has gone up > 16 cents from your cost price because that is equal to 1 years worth of dividend? So should sell and then wait for another entry point? just realised that it takes a lot of mental resilience to buy back again. finally, I am truly considering ASCENDAS REIT as main retirement stock, but is that too risky to put all the eggs in one basket? Please let me know your advice since you have read the storybook many times. Thank u! |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
18-Nov-2023 00:33
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Thanks for sharing, Bro sanvan. And CONGRATS with more eggs on the way. All the best to us. . 
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sanvan
Veteran |
17-Nov-2023 20:47
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Bro Wave, I am still vested. Sold 20% at 2.77, another 20% at 2.80. Still have balance 60%. Agree with you it is dilemma time. But today, was nice closing on decent volume. I think should see 2.85 soon. Buying is still strong. 4m out of 14m done at 2.80. Will think more over the weekend about what to do with the remainder. Perhaps sell equally at 2.82, 2.83 and 2.84. Have a restful weekend.
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