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Latest Forum Topics / ThaiBev    Last:0.43 --  Post Reply
ThaiBev

Safety_first
Master
22-Dec-2025 18:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Agreed !!
Thaibaht getting stronger against S$ since Oct. Will have better dividend payout in S$ (0.47 baht) in Feb

Trade8668      ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 16:05) Posted:

This is super good news. Can get ThaiBev shares at low price and collect high dividend. 

SDEXXXXD      ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 14:20) Posted:

Share price back pedaling agai
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Trade8668
Member
22-Dec-2025 16:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This is super good news. Can get ThaiBev shares at low price and collect high dividend. 

SDEXXXXD      ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 14:20) Posted:

Share price back pedaling again

Alignment      ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 07:19) Posted:

Thailand continuing to attack Cambodia refusing a ceasefire despite Trump' s wishes. Does not bode well for the Thai economy.
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SDEXXXXD
Veteran
22-Dec-2025 14:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Share price back pedaling again

Alignment      ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 07:19) Posted:

Thailand continuing to attack Cambodia refusing a ceasefire despite Trump' s wishes. Does not bode well for the Thai economy.
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Alignment
Elite
22-Dec-2025 07:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thailand continuing to attack Cambodia refusing a ceasefire despite Trump' s wishes. Does not bode well for the Thai economy.
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PiRPiR
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20-Dec-2025 12:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/thai-beverage-outlook-revised-to-negative-by-fitch-rating-affirmed-93CH-4417629
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governor
Veteran
28-Nov-2025 20:12     
 
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Wolf Money(portfolio update end Nov 2025) Thai Bev related

My thoughts and prayers to the victims and families affected by the Wang Fuk Court fire in HK. May God grant you solace and strength in your road to recovery. Amen 🙏  

Ole Ole Ole Ole 

Singapore football had its finest moment recently with the qualification for the Asian Cup 2027. Let me join my countrymen in congratulating our Lions for a job well done. The continental championship will be held in Saudi Arabia. There might be good reason for booking an air ticket to Saudi Arabia for some sightseeing since our national team is in the main draw of the AFC Asian Cup.

https://lonewolfinvestor.blogspot.com/2025/11/wolf-moneyportfolio-update-end-nov-2025.html

 
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n3wbie
Elite
28-Nov-2025 12:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Haha true - best to dyodd. Follow this Thai analyst quite closely over the years, his call has been pretty spot-on and probably has more informed insights in-market.

governor      ( Date: 28-Nov-2025 09:19) Posted:

JPM said China unvestable near the bottom. 

n3wbie      ( Date: 28-Nov-2025 07:54) Posted:

For those interested in the report:
----

Thai Beverage Public Company Ltd.
Momentum on Ice: Downgrade to Neutral

We downgrade THBEV from OW to Neutral, with a lower Sep-26 PT of S$0.43. Our cautious stance reflects near-term headwinds from a government-mandated mourning period in Thailand and severe typhoon disruptions in Vietnam, both of which are likely to weigh on alcohol consumption. In addition, rising SG& A expenses driven by ongoing brand investment and competitive pressures are eroding margins. While we think the stock offers an attractive valuation and yield support, the lack of clear earnings growth or positive catalysts means this could be a value trap in the near-term.
  • Mourning period could pressure domestic volume.  The Thai government has mandated a one-year mourning period for public sector employees (~1.75m) following the passing of Queen Sirikit, the Queen Mother. Historical precedent suggests caution: after King Rama 9&rsquo s passing in Sep 2016, THBEV&rsquo s spirits and beer revenue declined by 9% y/y over the next two quarters, driven by a ban on alcohol at government events. While the current mourning period is expected to be less intense, we now factor in a ~2% contraction in THBEV&rsquo s spirits and beer volume for FY26, reflecting anticipated softness in alcohol consumption during this period.
  • Typhoons in Vietnam.  Vietnam has experienced an unprecedented 25 typhoons so far in 2025, compared to just nine in 2024. The season has extended into 4Q25, with six typhoons so far versus none in the same quarter over 2021-24. According to BBC news, the resulting floods have led to 90 deaths and displaced over 200,000 households. The scale and frequency of these natural disasters have severely disrupted daily life and economic activity, and we think are likely to further dampen already weak alcohol consumption in Vietnam in the near term.
  • Higher A& P in spirits may stay.  The spirits segment remains THBEV&rsquo s cash cow, accounting for ~50% of FY25 earnings. SG& A has grown at a ~7% CAGR over the past three years, including a notable +12% increase in FY25, diverging from the previously stable Bt13bn+- baseline SG& A in FY18-22. Consequently, SG& A/revenue rose to 13.6% in FY25 from 11.2% in FY22, pressuring EBITDA margins and offsetting benefits from lower raw materials. The company attributes this to ongoing brand investment and marketing, which in our view is probably necessary amid the rising presence of competitor Carabao Tawandaeng (2.8% share in 2024 after its 2018 debut). While THBEV&rsquo s dominant market position appears secure for now, continued A& P spending may be necessary to defend against competitive threats.
  • Downgrade to Neutral.  We cut our EPS forecasts by 13-14% for FY26-27, putting our numbers 7-11% below consensus, as we incorporate anticipated sales volume challenges in Thailand and Vietnam. Following the revisions, we now project slow growth of 2% in FY26, with a pick-up to mid-single-digit (MSD) growth in FY27-28. Despite being inexpensive at 11.3x FY26E P/E and 8.3x EV/EBITDA, we think it risks being a value trap without earnings growth or clear catalysts. A sustainable FCFF yield of ~10% offers some downside protection, with the stock recently finding support at a ~6% dividend yield. As a result, we downgrade THBEV to Neutral from OW, with a lower Sep-26 SOTP PT of S$0.43 (from S$0.59)
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governor
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28-Nov-2025 09:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		JPM said China unvestable near the bottom. 

n3wbie      ( Date: 28-Nov-2025 07:54) Posted:

For those interested in the report:
----

Thai Beverage Public Company Ltd.
Momentum on Ice: Downgrade to Neutral

We downgrade THBEV from OW to Neutral, with a lower Sep-26 PT of S$0.43. Our cautious stance reflects near-term headwinds from a government-mandated mourning period in Thailand and severe typhoon disruptions in Vietnam, both of which are likely to weigh on alcohol consumption. In addition, rising SG& A expenses driven by ongoing brand investment and competitive pressures are eroding margins. While we think the stock offers an attractive valuation and yield support, the lack of clear earnings growth or positive catalysts means this could be a value trap in the near-term.
  • Mourning period could pressure domestic volume.  The Thai government has mandated a one-year mourning period for public sector employees (~1.75m) following the passing of Queen Sirikit, the Queen Mother. Historical precedent suggests caution: after King Rama 9&rsquo s passing in Sep 2016, THBEV&rsquo s spirits and beer revenue declined by 9% y/y over the next two quarters, driven by a ban on alcohol at government events. While the current mourning period is expected to be less intense, we now factor in a ~2% contraction in THBEV&rsquo s spirits and beer volume for FY26, reflecting anticipated softness in alcohol consumption during this period.
  • Typhoons in Vietnam.  Vietnam has experienced an unprecedented 25 typhoons so far in 2025, compared to just nine in 2024. The season has extended into 4Q25, with six typhoons so far versus none in the same quarter over 2021-24. According to BBC news, the resulting floods have led to 90 deaths and displaced over 200,000 households. The scale and frequency of these natural disasters have severely disrupted daily life and economic activity, and we think are likely to further dampen already weak alcohol consumption in Vietnam in the near term.
  • Higher A& P in spirits may stay.  The spirits segment remains THBEV&rsquo s cash cow, accounting for ~50% of FY25 earnings. SG& A has grown at a ~7% CAGR over the past three years, including a notable +12% increase in FY25, diverging from the previously stable Bt13bn+- baseline SG& A in FY18-22. Consequently, SG& A/revenue rose to 13.6% in FY25 from 11.2% in FY22, pressuring EBITDA margins and offsetting benefits from lower raw materials. The company attributes this to ongoing brand investment and marketing, which in our view is probably necessary amid the rising presence of competitor Carabao Tawandaeng (2.8% share in 2024 after its 2018 debut). While THBEV&rsquo s dominant market position appears secure for now, continued A& P spending may be necessary to defend against competitive threats.
  • Downgrade to Neutral.  We cut our EPS forecasts by 13-14% for FY26-27, putting our numbers 7-11% below consensus, as we incorporate anticipated sales volume challenges in Thailand and Vietnam. Following the revisions, we now project slow growth of 2% in FY26, with a pick-up to mid-single-digit (MSD) growth in FY27-28. Despite being inexpensive at 11.3x FY26E P/E and 8.3x EV/EBITDA, we think it risks being a value trap without earnings growth or clear catalysts. A sustainable FCFF yield of ~10% offers some downside protection, with the stock recently finding support at a ~6% dividend yield. As a result, we downgrade THBEV to Neutral from OW, with a lower Sep-26 SOTP PT of S$0.43 (from S$0.59)


SDEXXXXD      ( Date: 27-Nov-2025 16:55) Posted:



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n3wbie
Elite
28-Nov-2025 07:54     
 
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 Alert Admin 		For those interested in the report:
----

Thai Beverage Public Company Ltd.
Momentum on Ice: Downgrade to Neutral

We downgrade THBEV from OW to Neutral, with a lower Sep-26 PT of S$0.43. Our cautious stance reflects near-term headwinds from a government-mandated mourning period in Thailand and severe typhoon disruptions in Vietnam, both of which are likely to weigh on alcohol consumption. In addition, rising SG& A expenses driven by ongoing brand investment and competitive pressures are eroding margins. While we think the stock offers an attractive valuation and yield support, the lack of clear earnings growth or positive catalysts means this could be a value trap in the near-term.
  • Mourning period could pressure domestic volume.  The Thai government has mandated a one-year mourning period for public sector employees (~1.75m) following the passing of Queen Sirikit, the Queen Mother. Historical precedent suggests caution: after King Rama 9&rsquo s passing in Sep 2016, THBEV&rsquo s spirits and beer revenue declined by 9% y/y over the next two quarters, driven by a ban on alcohol at government events. While the current mourning period is expected to be less intense, we now factor in a ~2% contraction in THBEV&rsquo s spirits and beer volume for FY26, reflecting anticipated softness in alcohol consumption during this period.
  • Typhoons in Vietnam.  Vietnam has experienced an unprecedented 25 typhoons so far in 2025, compared to just nine in 2024. The season has extended into 4Q25, with six typhoons so far versus none in the same quarter over 2021-24. According to BBC news, the resulting floods have led to 90 deaths and displaced over 200,000 households. The scale and frequency of these natural disasters have severely disrupted daily life and economic activity, and we think are likely to further dampen already weak alcohol consumption in Vietnam in the near term.
  • Higher A& P in spirits may stay.  The spirits segment remains THBEV&rsquo s cash cow, accounting for ~50% of FY25 earnings. SG& A has grown at a ~7% CAGR over the past three years, including a notable +12% increase in FY25, diverging from the previously stable Bt13bn+- baseline SG& A in FY18-22. Consequently, SG& A/revenue rose to 13.6% in FY25 from 11.2% in FY22, pressuring EBITDA margins and offsetting benefits from lower raw materials. The company attributes this to ongoing brand investment and marketing, which in our view is probably necessary amid the rising presence of competitor Carabao Tawandaeng (2.8% share in 2024 after its 2018 debut). While THBEV&rsquo s dominant market position appears secure for now, continued A& P spending may be necessary to defend against competitive threats.
  • Downgrade to Neutral.  We cut our EPS forecasts by 13-14% for FY26-27, putting our numbers 7-11% below consensus, as we incorporate anticipated sales volume challenges in Thailand and Vietnam. Following the revisions, we now project slow growth of 2% in FY26, with a pick-up to mid-single-digit (MSD) growth in FY27-28. Despite being inexpensive at 11.3x FY26E P/E and 8.3x EV/EBITDA, we think it risks being a value trap without earnings growth or clear catalysts. A sustainable FCFF yield of ~10% offers some downside protection, with the stock recently finding support at a ~6% dividend yield. As a result, we downgrade THBEV to Neutral from OW, with a lower Sep-26 SOTP PT of S$0.43 (from S$0.59)


SDEXXXXD      ( Date: 27-Nov-2025 16:55) Posted:

https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/thai-beverage-stock-rating-downgraded-by-jpmorgan-on-consumption-headwinds-93CH-4380942

n3wbie      ( Date: 26-Nov-2025 23:36) Posted:

Few brokers cut TP, including JPM thai analyst who has historically been spot on with his call. TP was reduced to 43c...
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SDEXXXXD
Veteran
27-Nov-2025 16:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/thai-beverage-stock-rating-downgraded-by-jpmorgan-on-consumption-headwinds-93CH-4380942

n3wbie      ( Date: 26-Nov-2025 23:36) Posted:

Few brokers cut TP, including JPM thai analyst who has historically been spot on with his call. TP was reduced to 43c...
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n3wbie
Elite
26-Nov-2025 23:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Few brokers cut TP, including JPM thai analyst who has historically been spot on with his call. TP was reduced to 43c...
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governor
Veteran
26-Nov-2025 21:16     
 
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Wolf Money(Thai Beverage results conference call summary)


https://lonewolfinvestor.blogspot.com/2025/11/wolf-moneythai-beverage-results.html
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Joelton
Supreme
26-Nov-2025 10:14     
 
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ThaiBev&rsquo s full-year net profit falls 6.8% to 25.4 billion baht
The board has declared a final dividend of 0.47 baht per share
 
[SINGAPORE]   Thai Beverage   : Y92 0% posted a 6.8 per cent drop in net profit to 25.4 billion baht (S$1.02 billion) for the full year ended Sep 30, 2025, from 27.2 billion a year earlier. 
 
In a bourse filing on Tuesday (Nov 25), Thai Beverage attributed the decline to &ldquo increased investments in brand-building and new product launches&hellip (as well as) increased operating expenses from restaurant expansion&rdquo .
 
 
Revenue fell 2.1 per cent to 333.3 billion baht from 340.3 billion baht for FY2024 the group said this was due to macroeconomic challenges that led to &ldquo softening consumer sentiment across key markets&rdquo . 
 
Earnings per share stood at 1.01 baht, down from 1.08 baht per share a year earlier.
 
The board has proposed a final dividend of 0.47 baht per share, to be paid out on Feb 27, 2026. This brings the total dividend for FY2025 to 0.62 baht per share, higher than the total dividend of 0.60 baht per share for FY2024.
 
Net profit for Thai Beverage&rsquo s spirits business fell 7 per cent year on year to 19.8 billion baht, due to weaker domestic consumption and foreign exchange losses. 
 
The beer business, meanwhile, delivered a 24.6 per cent increase in net profit at 6.5 billion baht, on the back of lower key raw material costs and improved production efficiencies. 
 
For the non-alcoholic beverages business, higher brand investment and marketing costs, as well as increased income tax expenses, resulted in a 13.4 per cent decline in net profit to 5.1 billion baht. This, the group noted, was despite lower packaging costs and improved production efficiency. 
 
Thai Beverage&rsquo s food business faced increased labour costs and marketing expenses, which contributed to a net loss of 128 million baht. 
The group&rsquo s other businesses, which comprise publishing and printing, reported a net loss of 243 million baht. 
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Alignment
Elite
26-Nov-2025 10:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		So many problems in Thailand - political uncertainty, factors affecting tourism including kidnappings and fighting with neighbouring countries...
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Wesley
Member
26-Nov-2025 09:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Time to load?
 
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governor
Veteran
25-Nov-2025 23:46     
 
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Wolf Money(Thai Bev FY25 results)

https://lonewolfinvestor.blogspot.com/2025/11/wolf-moneythai-bev-fy25-results.html
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spursfan
Supreme
25-Nov-2025 22:01     
 
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https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/1OD9LM5B28IVXJ69/868095_YearEnd%202025_Financial_Results_Presentation.pdf
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n3wbie
Elite
25-Nov-2025 21:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Latest set of FY25 financials just out - the challenging market conditions well reflected across the decline in topline, ebitda and net profit...
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governor
Veteran
12-Nov-2025 10:43     
 
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Wolf Money(Thai Beverage PCL)


https://lonewolfinvestor.blogspot.com/2025/11/wolf-moneythai-beverage-pcl_12.html
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governor
Veteran
10-Nov-2025 12:40     
 
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Wolf Money(Thai Beverage PCL)sold revised explanations

https://lonewolfinvestor.blogspot.com/2025/11/wolf-moneythai-beverage-pclsold.html?m=1

 
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