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CapLand Ascendas RE
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Ascendasreit
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wavehunter
Supreme |
04-Nov-2023 17:34
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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So what are the key takeaways we have learnt from trading the market this past one month? 1. The starting point is STOCKPICK. We must get this right. If you pick the wrong stock, you are going to need a lot of luck not to incur a loss and even a lot more luck to eke out a gain. But if you pick the right stock, knowledge about your stock coupled with trading experience and a good strategy will make up 90% of the ingredients necessary to be profitable. Luck will account for only 10%. In a nutshell, choose a stock which is sought after by fund managers, institutional investors and high net worth retail investors. Whenever this group of investors are present, you will also find a large following of smaller retail investors and traders. Like us. 2. Once you have picked the right stock to invest/trade in, the next thing you need to get right is the entry point. This requires keen knowledge of what your stock is currently doing, which phase of the market cycle it is in, whether it is on an uptrend, downtrend or moving sideways. Knowing where your stock is going next week, the week after or a month from now will tell you whether she is at a good level to buy or sell today or whether you should wait. To know this will require you to know your stock very well. Read her charts, news about her, and study the macro economic factors which affect her profitability. To do this, you will have to put in the work, time and effort to study your stock and keep abreast of newsflow. There is no substitute for that. 3. Every selldown is on hindsight a buying opportunity. But this is true only for good stocks which are highly sought after by FIRs - Fund managers, Institutional investors & Rich retail investors. A penny stock which is targeted for price manipulation by stock manipulators (I call them monkeys)... when they are sold down, oftentimes, they stay down and become motionless after that becoz the monkey already run road leaving retail traders as the last ones to carry the crying babies. So when a selldown comes, do not fret or fear. Be thankful that it has come. Only in a selldown will you see heavily discounted basement prices. 4. Selldowns like the one we just had are few and far between. So when one comes, what is the worst thing that can happen to us? For me, it is no more bullets to buy. Becoz our ammo is already stuck in stocks bought at higher levels. That is the worst thing that can happen to us when a selldown comes. No more money to buy means a lost opportunity. And a golden one. So what is the solution for this ? There is one. But it comes at a price. It comes with a trade-off. At any one time, use only half of your capital to trade. Keep the other half just in case an unexpected selldown comes. And if it does, you still have half of your capital to buy at basement prices. The tradeoff here is that you can only put half of your capital to work at all times and this will limit the amount of profits you can make. Should you decide to put all your capital to work since " normal trading days" far exceed " selldowns" , that' s up to you. No right or wrong. Its about tradeoffs and making a decision on what you want and what you are prepared to miss, ie. where your tradeoffs should be. 5. When a selldown comes, assuming you still have ammo to buy, nothing will happen unless you are able to find something else you need - bolas. To buy when there is a selldown in the market is a very scary thing to do. You cant help but be overwhelmed by negative thoughts of what if this and what if that and the list of what can possibly go wrong never seem to end. In the end, we become so scared and so paralysed that we dare not buy and fail to buy altogether. Being fearful is natural. It happens to all of us. We dare not buy. Becoz we are completely weighed down by all the WHAT IFs. There is one word to describe this phenomenon. It is called - OVERTHINK. As long as you pick a stock which is chased by FIRs and the fundamentals of your stock have not changed, do not overthink. When the selling is done, bring out your bolas somehow and hit the BUY button. Buy in tranches in small lots. If you get it wrong and are too early, you will be glad you didnt buy more. If you get it right and your stock continues to firm up, you will feel reassured to keep buying to scale up your positions. 6. When your stock has turned the corner and starts to recover, dont shortchange yourself. Dont sell too early. Learn to ride your positions when you are sitting on winners. When to sell ? When the upmove starts to lose steam and slow down and volume also falls to a fraction of the volume when the rally was still in progress. This is easier said than done. But its all we have and each of us just have to try to make the best of it. Sell in tranches is another advice I have read many times. That way, if the price continues to rise, we can still sell higher. Just like we dont get to buy at the low all the time, we also dont get to sell at the high all the time. Be thankful that you are profitable and are counting profits, not losses. After you have sold, wait for the next cycle. Wait for the next opportunity to buy again to restart another trading cycle. 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
04-Nov-2023 10:34
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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 Both Dow and S & P were roaring again last nite for a 3rd straight day of rally. Like I said, funds have switched to " risk on" mode and are grabbing as they have stayed sidelined for too long and are under-invested. Dow rose +222 pts. S & P put on another +40.56 pts. Becoz markets have been falling about 10% into correction territory since the highs in July, now that valuations have become attractive again and the market has turned, FOMO amongst funds has set in. Last nite, I heard this sentence from 3 different fund managers at CNBC Market News: " I think we are going to get a year end rally." Santa Claus is coming to town. Stocks are relatively cheap becoz of the recent correction. So people are buying becoz there is a SALE now on. . 
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PiRPiR
Master |
03-Nov-2023 22:00
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UOB Kay Hian maintains 'overweight' rating on S-REITs remains positive on CLAR and PLife REIT
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/uob-kay-hian-maintains-overweight-rating-s-reits-remains-positive-clar-and |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
03-Nov-2023 15:20
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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She opened at 2.69. Ran up to touch Day High at 2.73. Then started her intraday pullback to 2.69. I think her pullback for today has ended at 2.69. Those of you who already sold and looking to buyback, 2.69 : 2.70 is what you are looking at. Queue at 2.69 and wait to be filled is one way. Or queue at 2.69 but grab some first at 2.70 is another way. No right or wrong here. Its all about your appetite for risk. All the best. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
03-Nov-2023 14:07
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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 Bro chew.................. Wow !!! This is your very 1st time posting in ShareJunction. Your virgin post !!!  So many threads to give your " virginity" to and you chose to give it to us here. So sweet of you.  You know, its a very nice feeling for us to know that we had your " 1st time" .  Knowing that you had both the capital and the bolas as well as the wisdom (your knowledge about this REIT) to hit the button and are now sitting on a nice pile of profits is mu$ic to my ear$ !!! CONGRAT$$$ !!! And looking at your entry levels.....2.49....2.51....2.55....2.60...... it appears that you are quite a sharpshooter yourself.  .  Impre$$ive !!!  Every single position is now in the money.  There are 2 ways to collect the 15 to 16 cts dividends from RSN Ascendas. One way is to BUY & HOLD for 13 mths. Why 13 mths? Becoz her XD will be in late Jan/early Feb in the following year. Another way is to get in at a low enough price and get out once she has moved 15 to 16 cts or more for you. After that can stand aside to keep powder dry to await the next buying opportunity to make 5 ct to 10 cts by trading her Swing Highs and Swing Lows. Buying opportunities to buy at 2.47 to 2.55 are few and far between and comes only once in a long while when we have a senseless selldown. Like the one we just had. When the next one comes, its important that we still have the bulk of our ammo with us and not already stuck in stocks bought at higher prices. Once again, CONGRATS and I hope to see you around more often. You can join in to lend a hand to jio the bros and siss here and give moral support to each other. That way, we can help spread the bolas around so that the folks here can also learn to bring out their bolas or grow new ones even. 
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chewch1
Member |
03-Nov-2023 13:34
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Thanks wavehunter for the replies and honestly entertaining posts. :) I was recently interested in REITS and dividend income and saw an investment opportunity in A17U. However, I could not find any other forum / analysis supporting my hunch. I came across this forum by typing A17U stock forum on Google and came here! Ever since then, I have been following the threads over the past 2 weeks to look at commentary and updates. There was a 3 day period few days ago that the price went down and stayed down between 2.48-2.52 and there was radio silence in this thread, I thought it would have gone down further. But eventually it went up driven by FED interest rates. I managed to by lots at 2.6,2.55,2.51 and 2.49 when it was going down. And now it' s up again and will probably take profits in > 2.85. My intention was to buy and hold for long term as I am interested in dividend income, but seems like the capital gain of 5% of my position in 2 weeks is almost 1 year' s of work! So maybe I will take profit soon. | ||||
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wavehunter
Supreme |
03-Nov-2023 10:11
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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The post below was written yesterday. Yesterday' s High was 2.67. Yesterday' s Low was 2.63. Yesterday I said if you are saying to yourself that you will buy only if the price goes back down to the bottom at 2.47, then in all probability you will not be on this boat but on the pier waving to the people who are on this boat. Today, she reached 2.73. Never mind if you miss the boat this time. There will be a next time. And I will jio you all again to get your boarding pass when the price is lower. Everything you have seen and read this past few weeks, implant it into your memory and keep it fresh. So that when the next time comes, you will be able to find the bolas to hit the button. Like I said, every selldown on hindsight, is a buying opportunity. How to see prices like 2.47 to 2.52 for Ascendas ??? Only when there is a SELLDOWN. So whenever there is a selldown, out comes your BOLA$. Etch that into your mind.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
03-Nov-2023 09:57
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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To all the bravehearts here who read our discussions and found the bolas to hit the button and BUY when she was falling or when she has turned the corner, CONGRATS. Happy Profit Taking !!! Happy Harvesting !!! As to when to harvest and how to harvest, no one knows where is the top. So sell in tranches each time the upmove stalls. That way, if the price continues to rise, you still have shares to sell. Her Previous High was 2.85 established on 15 Sep 23. Whether she will go there again or stop short or go even higher, your guess is as good as mine. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
03-Nov-2023 09:19
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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An update of how long she took to rise 10%. . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
03-Nov-2023 09:09
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Wall Street rose strongly for 2 nites in a row following the Fed' s decision to keep rates as they are and no longer saying there may be a need for another rate hike in 2023. Instead, when asked specifically on what happened to the Fed' s previous guidance that there will be one more rate hike this year, Powell said what was projected previously is not a promise or plan about what the Fed will do in the future. Markets rose following his speech. And continued to rise strongly again a second nite last nite. There is an explanation for this. Many funds havent put capital to work yet. They were waiting. And so they have a lot of catching up to do to put capital to work. For now, it is " risk on" mode. That' s why bulls are running amok. . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
03-Nov-2023 08:27
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Dow ploughed down bears last nite with a bulldozer and rose +564 pts. . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
02-Nov-2023 17:16
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Bro viva, Yes, I wont. I fall in love with the money the stock can make for me. Juz kiddin. 
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vivacious
Supreme |
02-Nov-2023 16:54
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dont fall in luv w a stk
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wavehunter
Supreme |
02-Nov-2023 16:35
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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The Berlin Wall at 2.66 finally came down !!! .  . Like I said, the big boys will be buying now that Fed has kept rates unchanged. No more headwinds in the form of higher interest rate. Borrowing cost wont be going any higher so whatever increase in revenue or savings in other operating cost will mean an increase in DPU. .  She may close at 2.68 or 2.69 as we may see a scramble by funds, institutions and wealthy retail investors to get their seats on this boat into the closing. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
02-Nov-2023 15:28
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Bro viva, Do think of your Plan B. If she goes back to below 2.60, good for you. If she dont, then how? If she no wan to go down below 2.60 to lick you, then you what? You come up to above 2.60 to lick her? Or no more date her leow... you will wait for the next selldown? It could be quite a long wait. If....and I am not saying it will happen but IF.... we get a year end rally, then the next selldown could be quite long. When we trade, we have a plan based on our preferred scenario where we put our best foot forward. But as you know by now, the market couldnt care less what we plan and dont give a shit to what we want. And so if the market do something else which is not what you expected, what is your Plan B ? Ofcoz Plan B can include to do nothing. But if do nothing is not what you want, and you want to do something, then by doing the mental exercise now of " if this happens, I will do this" and " if that happens, I will do that" ....doing this will shorten your decision-making when the time comes. All the best.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
02-Nov-2023 14:45
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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CONGRATS !!! 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
02-Nov-2023 14:42
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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vivacious
Supreme |
02-Nov-2023 14:34
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sold at 266. Buy back below 260 | ||||
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wavehunter
Supreme |
02-Nov-2023 11:20
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Fed started this rate hike cycle back in Mar 2022. That was 19 mths ago. During the last 19 mths, did Ascendas' DPU drop by a lot ? All along and even before the rate hike cycle started, Ascendas has been paying more than 15 cts but less than 16 cts per year. Then when the rate hike started, Ascendas continued to pay dividend between 15 cts to 16 cts. There was no let-up. What this means is that somehow, the REIT manager was (and still is) able to offset the higher borrowing cost by either reducing some other operating cost or by increasing revenue or by doing both. And given that they have been at it for the past 19 mths, it shows they know what they are doing and they are damn good at it. That' s why unitholders continued to receive between 15 cts to 16 cts during this period. It was also during this period we saw at least 2 if not 3 occasions of private share placement to raise capital to fund new property acquisitions. How did the market respond to those share placement exercises? Their new shares were over-subscribed in all of those private share placements. This speaks volume of how well sought after this REIT is by industry players. So funds, institutions and wealthy retail investors who are looking for both attractive dividend yield and capital appreciation for their investments will find Ascendas very attractive. Yes, there is no risk when you park money in SSB. But there is no capital appreciation whatsoever too. Whereas if you park money in Ascendas and at a good price level, and you have holding power, you will receive a decent dividend yield and your captial appreciation is virtually guaranteed. Another reason why big players choose to park their money in a good REIT is becoz of a lack of alternatives. Bank stocks did not fall by a lot to a point where they are attractive. At their current prices, they are way above their " can-buy and keep levels" . What else are there to park money in ? Wilmar ? ST Engrgg ? SIA ? SGX ? They did not fall much either. But REITs did. And has reached an attractive level relative to banks and the other good blue chip stocks. In a rising interest rate environment, the managers of Ascendas were able to neutralize the impact of higher borrowing cost by reducing operating cost elsewhere and by raising revenue. Can you imagine what will happen to her bottomline when the Fed eventually start to cut interest rates and borrowing cost falls? That' s when we will see Ascendas embarking on an expedition to the North Pole. Her bottom was at 2.47. She reached 2.67 today. That' s 20 cts above the bottom. Those who are sitting on profits and are happy with their harvest will take profits and disembark from this ship. Their doing so will cause the price to pull back and this is what those looking to buy are hoping to see. They are waiting for this pullback to run its course. Then they move in. " It takes 9 months to make a baby. You cant impregnate 9 women to get a baby in 1 month." quote unquote Warren Buffet. |
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halleluyah
Supreme |
02-Nov-2023 10:05
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current high int rate will stay on till next yr 1st half as i agak thus will eat up reits profit n dpu will b lower...so reits still limitted to go higher....i just play at at lower range....also need to prepare fr placement/rights issue if reits in need of $$ ....
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