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News affecting Banks
Luzern
Supreme
19-Sep-2018 10:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Still building my shorts on banks, in anticipation of some serious correction on Dow this Friday or next Monday........IMO, DYODD
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Luzern
Supreme
19-Sep-2026 16:28     
 
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 Alert Admin

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/market-reaction-to-us-tariffs-on-china-first-eastern-investment-group.html

" Markets expect Trump to ' go all the way' on China tariffs: Expert
  • " The market is beginning to digest that President Trump will go all the way, and I think that China has to be prepared he will go all the way," Victor Chu, the CEO of Hong Kong-based First Eastern Investment Group, told CNBC at the World Economic Forum.
  • In a statement on the additional tariffs on Chinese goods that were announced Monday, Trump added that if China retaliates, the U.S. will impose tariffs on the remaining $267 billion of Chinese imports.
  • But some investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach till after the U.S. midterm elections in November, he said.
Published 17 Hours Ago Updated 15 Hours Ago   
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Luzern
Supreme
19-Sep-2018 09:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Was expecting banks to gap up......too bad did not happen. 

US rallied due to the tariffs being " not as bad as expected" .

US to slap 200B tariff (10% then increase to 25% in 2019)  on 24/sep/2018.  China to follow with a 60B tariff (5% to 10%)  right after US implementation.

US Bond 10 yr bond spiked to 3.055% .......... hum.........
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 15:09     
 
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" It will be interesting to see how President Trump responds to the news out of China. He could see it as a provocation -- the olive branch of an invitation to talk being dismissed and retaliation being -- or could view it as further evidence, in his view, that China is " suffering."

" China to Levy Retaliatory Tariffs Simultaneously With U.S."
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 15:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		placed my bet on round 2 shorts.......


 
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 14:54     
 
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 Alert Admin 		For the Banks  Traders........

"
We' re set to bring you coverage of a press briefing by China' s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is scheduled to start at 3pm in Beijing (8am in London, 3am in New York). The briefing is a regular daily briefing we' ll be following closely in case Beijing provides any response to the Trump administration' s new tariffs."
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 14:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		US future green on China limited respond?

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2164638/pboc-lowers-yuan-fix-three-week-low-after-fresh-tariff

PBOC lowers yuan fix to three-week low after fresh tariff salvo by Washington

 
 
 
PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 18 September, 2018, 11:10am
UPDATED : Tuesday, 18 September, 2018, 11:10am
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 09:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Blow by blow........HK open......Europe Open...and anywhere in-between....China' s respond.
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 09:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Waiting for China' s respond..........they are taking longer than usual........got caught unexpected?
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 09:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Considering there was no buy backs by any of the banks yesterday, DBS was holding up quite well yesterday. 

UOB ....... as predicted, is closing its price gap with DBS.

DBS....  is likely to   be worst hit by escalating US-China Trade War  due to its exposure to Greater China among the local 3 banks.

10% tariff is definately not enough.    USD have appreciated by ~> 8%  against CNY since the start of   the Trade war.  Hence, the stated increase to 25% by Jan 1 2019 on the 200B tariff.

Bond rate falls below 3% (10-yr) after the latest Trump' s action.....(what he wanted, to lower the borrowing cost for US)

Mid Term?.......he can always claimed he tried to reason with China.........
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 08:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		My Banks shorts are looking very promising now........Huat Ah!laugh

Luzern      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 14:17) Posted:

Compared to last august, its a 50% drop in sale. 

The Loans of the 3 banks to the Building and Comstruction and private property mortages accounts for 40%+ to 50%+ of total loan. 
So we can expect a drop in new loan to this segment of 40% to 60% from Q4 onwards?  Q3 will be cushioned by the last minute buying of property on 5th July.

No prize is guessing my new banks positions.  cheeky

Qanghoo      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 09:02) Posted:

URA release not out yet lah.  So don' t get carried away lah.    Release might be out later today though. N before reading too much into it, don' t forrget hungry ghost possibly skewing data from Aug/Sep.  Those who took any advice to dump bk stocks good luck
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 08:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		An article published in July 25th 2018
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2156810/many-chinese-companies-will-go-bankrupt-if-us-delivers
 

Many Chinese companies &lsquo will go bankrupt&rsquo , if US delivers on tariff threats, court newspaper warns

 


Judiciary must ready itself for possible fallout from China-US trade row, mouthpiece of Beijing&rsquo s top court says
 
PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 25 July, 2018, 4:53pm
UPDATED : Friday, 27 July, 2018, 1:07am
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Luzern
Supreme
18-Sep-2018 08:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/trump-puts-new-tariffs-on-china-as-trade-war-escalates.html
 

Trump will slap 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods &mdash and they will go to 25% at year-end

  • President Donald Trump will put 10 percent tariffs on an $200 billion in Chinese goods, which will go up to 25 percent at the end of the year.
  • The action heightens the trade conflict between the world' s two largest economies.
  • Trump is considering whether to put tariffs on more than $250 billion more in Chinese products.


 
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Qanghoo
Supreme
17-Sep-2018 18:02     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I' m very open.  Bks will continue to do will  N i' ve already given my onw figure that DBS will weigh in at ard 5 bil in fy 18. 

Luzern      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:58) Posted:

That is why I said...." Good try" just now. wink

Qanghoo      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:55) Posted:

I' m not cos I think it' s gonna be ridiculous.  N why are u even raising such a qn.  I thiought u are so eagle to let the world know how much the bks are gonna sink.    Since u' ve created such a negative atmosphere, I think it' s fair to see if you make sense n we can see what happens come Jan/Feb 19. 
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Luzern
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17-Sep-2018 17:58     
 
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 Alert Admin 		That is why I said...." Good try" just now. wink

Qanghoo      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:55) Posted:

I' m not cos I think it' s gonna be ridiculous.  N why are u even raising such a qn.  I thiought u are so eagle to let the world know how much the bks are gonna sink.    Since u' ve created such a negative atmosphere, I think it' s fair to see if you make sense n we can see what happens come Jan/Feb 19. 

Luzern      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:39) Posted:

How much are you willing to pay for my estimates on the impact on the Banks profitablity?  You don' t really have to answer cause I  would  not tell you also.  Even if I do, I cannot charge a fee as well. 

I know how much the banks are charging  for loans.  It also depends on the " credit worthiness" status of the individual of companies. 
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Qanghoo
Supreme
17-Sep-2018 17:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I' m not cos I think it' s gonna be ridiculous.  N why are u even raising such a qn.  I thiought u are so eagle to let the world know how much the bks are gonna sink.    Since u' ve created such a negative atmosphere, I think it' s fair to see if you make sense n we can see what happens come Jan/Feb 19. 

Luzern      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:39) Posted:

How much are you willing to pay for my estimates on the impact on the Banks profitablity?  You don' t really have to answer cause I  would  not tell you also.  Even if I do, I cannot charge a fee as well. 

I know how much the banks are charging  for loans.  It also depends on the " credit worthiness" status of the individual of companies. 

Qanghoo      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:34) Posted:

How much I' m paying is  personal.  But if u must know, I' m paying more not less (than 2 yrs ago).  Why?  cos interest has gone up substantially.  This is a positive which I doubt u' ve seriously considered ..... n I wonder why
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Luzern
Supreme
17-Sep-2018 17:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		How much are you willing to pay for my estimates on the impact on the Banks profitablity?  You don' t really have to answer cause I  would  not tell you also.  Even if I do, I cannot charge a fee as well. 

I know how much the banks are charging  for loans.  It also depends on the " credit worthiness" status of the individual of companies. 

Qanghoo      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:34) Posted:

How much I' m paying is  personal.  But if u must know, I' m paying more not less (than 2 yrs ago).  Why?  cos interest has gone up substantially.  This is a positive which I doubt u' ve seriously considered ..... n I wonder why.

Luzern      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:29) Posted:

Good try.  How much are you paying? 
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Qanghoo
Supreme
17-Sep-2018 17:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		How much I' m paying is  personal.  But if u must know, I' m paying more not less (than 2 yrs ago).  Why?  cos interest has gone up substantially.  This is a positive which I doubt u' ve seriously considered ..... n I wonder why.

Luzern      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:29) Posted:

Good try.  How much are you paying? 

Qanghoo      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:27) Posted:

So, how much wld the lose in new loans take away from profitability at the end of the FY? 
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Luzern
Supreme
17-Sep-2018 17:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Good try.  How much are you paying? 

Qanghoo      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:27) Posted:

So, how much wld the lose in new loans take away from profitability at the end of the FY? 

Luzern      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:23) Posted:

Correct!    the inflow (new loans) just got hit by the Cooling measures ......40% to 60% (by my estimate) hit on (in DBS case) the  ~47% of total loan.  And this does not include the effect of trade war on the Greater China Loans
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Qanghoo
Supreme
17-Sep-2018 17:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		So, how much wld the lose in new loans take away from profitability at the end of the FY? 

Luzern      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:23) Posted:

Correct!    the inflow (new loans) just got hit by the Cooling measures ......40% to 60% (by my estimate) hit on (in DBS case) the  ~47% of total loan.  And this does not include the effect of trade war on the Greater China Loans.

Qanghoo      ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:18) Posted:

It' s not as if no one knows abt this.  It' s a long term thing.  All one needs is inflow = outflow.  No issue.  N to ensure the equation balances is the management' s joh, like I' d said.  Over so many crises in the last 30 yrs, bks here have never failed to deliver in that sense. 
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