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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Dec-2015 14:20        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This info is useful. especially the clause no.2, termination fee is just merely 100mio. compared to the 5.4bil take over offer.  There is risk involved in next 6months for 1.30. risk is priced in with 1.215, cannot take the risk, just sell and let bankers or brokers to take bah. Huataarrhh      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 13:53) Posted: #NOL: ($1.215) Why is it trading below CMA CGM' s offer price of $1.30/share? NOL is down 0.8% in mid-day trading at $1.215 even though CMA CGM had announced yesterday that it intended to take the company private through a $1.30/share offer. This could be mainly due to perceived execution risks arising from the following factors: 1. According to the schedule provided by NOL, the deal is preconditioned on regulatory approval across three different continents. Antitrust regulators in the US, EU, and China will have to give the deal their blessing before the deal can even take off. Only after receipt of regulatory approval, will the offer document be dispatched to shareholders with the offer only becoming unconditional a full 20 days after the receipt of regulatory approval. 2. By then, NOL would have reported two quarterly results (4Q15 and 1Q16), which the street is not optimistic about at all. While the deal is not preconditioned on NOL achieving any financial benchmarks, the termination fee of US$100m makes up for only 0.6% of CMA CGM&rsquo s FY14 revenue of US$16.7b. 3. Investors might be haunted by NOL&rsquo s &lsquo 08 failed merger bid with Hapag-Lloyd. Then, the stock tanked more than 50% from the time it&rsquo s US7b bid was made public in Jul &rsquo 08 to the time it pulled out in Oct &lsquo 08. Even so, with CMA CGM being a family-owned business, market watchers note that the company is not bound by traditional financial performance targets that publicly listed companies are. That could be the underlying reason why CMA CGM is looking to shell out $3.4b for NOL in the first place. Overall, while an arbitrage opportunity exists at current prices, investors will have to be aware of the holding period risk and by extension, deal execution risks associated with the opportunity.
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ttimer Member	08-Dec-2015 14:13        ttimer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You will get the letter of " offer" before that happen and if you are still adamant on holding onto your shares after the delisting you can seek your own legal representative for a higher settlement.
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Qanghoo Supreme	08-Dec-2015 14:08        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just to add that (I think EB also ponted out) if CMA has => 90%, then delisting is mandatory.  Then the minorities' voice will probably be inaudible.  At most, if coy doing well, collect some div (ie, if they are generous enough to pay).  If not, maybe just hold on to the paper till kingdom come.  wishbone      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 13:55) Posted: Absolutely. It cuts both way. Good Luck for those who are interested to ride on this. Qanghoo      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 13:43) Posted: They cannot offer higher px than offer px for x  period under the takeover code.  Of course, they want to do that after two, three yrs that' d be a different scenario, after all this excitement is gone.  But they can also offer lower px, like what EB had said.  By then, depends who feels a greater urgency to act.  In the CK Tang case, I believe the Tangs finally offered a substantially higher px to buy out the few still hanging on.    I think it' s the same with UOB-Far Eastern Bank?  But I can' t quote any case that  went the other way round.
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ttimer Member	08-Dec-2015 14:05        ttimer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don't worry as long as CMA achieve 90%, they are entitle to "compulsorily acquire" the remaining shares at "offer" price of 1.30 nothing less, so now is good price to buy in before it is too late.,like some bro said , you will save on commission also.
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wishbone Master	08-Dec-2015 13:55        wishbone About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Absolutely. It cuts both way. Good Luck for those who are interested to ride on this. Qanghoo      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 13:43) Posted: They cannot offer higher px than offer px for x  period under the takeover code.  Of course, they want to do that after two, three yrs that' d be a different scenario, after all this excitement is gone.  But they can also offer lower px, like what EB had said.  By then, depends who feels a greater urgency to act.  In the CK Tang case, I believe the Tangs finally offered a substantially higher px to buy out the few still hanging on.    I think it' s the same with UOB-Far Eastern Bank?  But I can' t quote any case that  went the other way round. wishbone      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 13:19) Posted: Right. Also the price will not remain as it is and will flutatute up and down depending on many many factors. Of course it can go up as well as come down and I do not believe it will be fixed at $1.30. Normally the offer, if CMA intends to go private and delist from SGX, it will most likely be offered at a premium above the last trading price upon the annoucement but definitely not the same as what they have bought the shares from TH.
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Huataarrhh Senior	08-Dec-2015 13:53        Huataarrhh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	#NOL: ($1.215) Why is it trading below CMA CGM' s offer price of $1.30/share? NOL is down 0.8% in mid-day trading at $1.215 even though CMA CGM had announced yesterday that it intended to take the company private through a $1.30/share offer. This could be mainly due to perceived execution risks arising from the following factors: 1. According to the schedule provided by NOL, the deal is preconditioned on regulatory approval across three different continents. Antitrust regulators in the US, EU, and China will have to give the deal their blessing before the deal can even take off. Only after receipt of regulatory approval, will the offer document be dispatched to shareholders with the offer only becoming unconditional a full 20 days after the receipt of regulatory approval. 2. By then, NOL would have reported two quarterly results (4Q15 and 1Q16), which the street is not optimistic about at all. While the deal is not preconditioned on NOL achieving any financial benchmarks, the termination fee of US$100m makes up for only 0.6% of CMA CGM&rsquo s FY14 revenue of US$16.7b. 3. Investors might be haunted by NOL&rsquo s &lsquo 08 failed merger bid with Hapag-Lloyd. Then, the stock tanked more than 50% from the time it&rsquo s US7b bid was made public in Jul &rsquo 08 to the time it pulled out in Oct &lsquo 08. Even so, with CMA CGM being a family-owned business, market watchers note that the company is not bound by traditional financial performance targets that publicly listed companies are. That could be the underlying reason why CMA CGM is looking to shell out $3.4b for NOL in the first place. Overall, while an arbitrage opportunity exists at current prices, investors will have to be aware of the holding period risk and by extension, deal execution risks associated with the opportunity.
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Qanghoo Supreme	08-Dec-2015 13:43        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	They cannot offer higher px than offer px for x  period under the takeover code.  Of course, they want to do that after two, three yrs that' d be a different scenario, after all this excitement is gone.  But they can also offer lower px, like what EB had said.  By then, depends who feels a greater urgency to act.  In the CK Tang case, I believe the Tangs finally offered a substantially higher px to buy out the few still hanging on.    I think it' s the same with UOB-Far Eastern Bank?  But I can' t quote any case that  went the other way round. wishbone      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 13:19) Posted: Right. Also the price will not remain as it is and will flutatute up and down depending on many many factors. Of course it can go up as well as come down and I do not believe it will be fixed at $1.30. Normally the offer, if CMA intends to go private and delist from SGX, it will most likely be offered at a premium above the last trading price upon the annoucement but definitely not the same as what they have bought the shares from TH. Octavia      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:54) Posted: There is no guarantee that all the regulatory approval from different authorites will be approval.That is the biggest huddle and risk.Price will be unthinkable then.
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Octavia Supreme	08-Dec-2015 13:34        Octavia About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That is one possibility.Maybe 5% more than TH' s share of $1.30 to make it ard $1.36 close to NAV...so as to pacify the remaining disgruntled shareholders. wishbone      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 13:19) Posted: Right. Also the price will not remain as it is and will flutatute up and down depending on many many factors. Of course it can go up as well as come down and I do not believe it will be fixed at $1.30. Normally the offer, if CMA intends to go private and delist from SGX, it will most likely be offered at a premium above the last trading price upon the annoucement but definitely not the same as what they have bought the shares from TH. Octavia      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:54) Posted: There is no guarantee that all the regulatory approval from different authorites will be approval.That is the biggest huddle and risk.Price will be unthinkable then.
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wishbone Master	08-Dec-2015 13:19        wishbone About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Right. Also the price will not remain as it is and will flutatute up and down depending on many many factors. Of course it can go up as well as come down and I do not believe it will be fixed at $1.30. Normally the offer, if CMA intends to go private and delist from SGX, it will most likely be offered at a premium above the last trading price upon the annoucement but definitely not the same as what they have bought the shares from TH. Octavia      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:54) Posted: There is no guarantee that all the regulatory approval from different authorites will be approval.That is the biggest huddle and risk.Price will be unthinkable then. NOLESS      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:46) Posted: When you get closer to the date of approval it won' t be this price of 1.22. The difference of 1.30 - 1.22 is the premium for the risk you take until regulatory approval. Now is the time to buy at very low risk. You' re almost assured of 1.30 provided you' re prepared to wait 6 months. After all it' s like FD like some bros say. Just park your money if you dont have immediate use for it.
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Dec-2015 13:15        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	sis, in between 6 month, a lot of cheap cheap stock to load leh, the gain may be higher than 6%. like Octavia said why load now with 6 month risk. There are still a lot of uncertainty. Anyone can call NOL or read the article properly if there is any termination clause from CMA side.  halleluyah      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 13:09) Posted: Vry highly will b approved....its tat u need $$ to hold.... Octavia      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:54) Posted: There is no guarantee that all the regulatory approval from different authorites will be approval.That is the biggest huddle and risk.Price will be unthinkable then.
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halleluyah Supreme	08-Dec-2015 13:13        halleluyah About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yup might nt need to wait till 6mths...perhaps 3-4mths will b thru liao.... NOLESS      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 13:08) Posted: The parties in this transaction must have done their homework way before this offer came out yesterday.I believe they won' t have gone into this exercise without a high level of confidence the approval will be in place. Of course there' s some risk. It' s really one' s judgement call. For all the fear, the approval may come in the next 3 months. As soon as the approval is given the offer to acquire the remaining 33% will  have to follow very quickly. Octavia      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:54) Posted: There is no guarantee that all the regulatory approval from different authorites will be approval.That is the biggest huddle and risk.Price will be unthinkable then.
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Msport Elite	08-Dec-2015 13:11        Msport About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	0450 GMT [Dow Jones] OCBC advises investors to accept the S$1.30 per share offer for Neptune Orient Lines (N03.SG) by French container shipper CMA CGM, citing a muted industry outlook. The offer values NOL at a 35% premium to OCBC' s fair value estimate of S$0.96 and also at a significant premium over the volume-weighted average price of NOL' s shares in recent months. OCBC notes that, if the offer is successful, CMA CGM plans to delist NOL, maintain the transit volume in Singapore and establish its regional head office in Singapore. NOL shares are down 0.4% at S$1.22, compared with a 0.8% fall in the local benchmark FTSE Straits Times Index. ([email protected])
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halleluyah Supreme	08-Dec-2015 13:09        halleluyah About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Vry highly will b approved....its tat u need $$ to hold.... Octavia      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:54) Posted: There is no guarantee that all the regulatory approval from different authorites will be approval.That is the biggest huddle and risk.Price will be unthinkable then. NOLESS      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:46) Posted: When you get closer to the date of approval it won' t be this price of 1.22. The difference of 1.30 - 1.22 is the premium for the risk you take until regulatory approval. Now is the time to buy at very low risk. You' re almost assured of 1.30 provided you' re prepared to wait 6 months. After all it' s like FD like some bros say. Just park your money if you dont have immediate use for it.
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NOLESS Member	08-Dec-2015 13:08        NOLESS About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The parties in this transaction must have done their homework way before this offer came out yesterday.I believe they won' t have gone into this exercise without a high level of confidence the approval will be in place. Of course there' s some risk. It' s really one' s judgement call. For all the fear, the approval may come in the next 3 months. As soon as the approval is given the offer to acquire the remaining 33% will  have to follow very quickly. Octavia      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:54) Posted: There is no guarantee that all the regulatory approval from different authorites will be approval.That is the biggest huddle and risk.Price will be unthinkable then. NOLESS      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:46) Posted: When you get closer to the date of approval it won' t be this price of 1.22. The difference of 1.30 - 1.22 is the premium for the risk you take until regulatory approval. Now is the time to buy at very low risk. You' re almost assured of 1.30 provided you' re prepared to wait 6 months. After all it' s like FD like some bros say. Just park your money if you dont have immediate use for it.
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AndyLoss Master	08-Dec-2015 12:56        AndyLoss About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	but for that too happen the price has to reach 1.30 this is the blocker here... Qanghoo      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:46) Posted: But suppose if mkt px is 1.30, say, 1 mth before pay out date, u may not mind paying the little brokerage rather than holding for 1 more month for the opportunity cost.  So, best to hold on ur option form until as late as possible?  That' s my view.  halleluyah      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:26) Posted: Yes right....why sell in open mkt fr 1.30?? Sell to CMA, dun need pay brokerage...lol
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Octavia Supreme	08-Dec-2015 12:54        Octavia About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	There is no guarantee that all the regulatory approval from different authorites will be approval.That is the biggest huddle and risk.Price will be unthinkable then. NOLESS      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:46) Posted: When you get closer to the date of approval it won' t be this price of 1.22. The difference of 1.30 - 1.22 is the premium for the risk you take until regulatory approval. Now is the time to buy at very low risk. You' re almost assured of 1.30 provided you' re prepared to wait 6 months. After all it' s like FD like some bros say. Just park your money if you dont have immediate use for it. Octavia      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:39) Posted: No rush to buy now.Wait closer to regulatory approval is done then scoop more as it will confirmed the deal is through and be assured per share is $1.30.No need to sell in the market to save on brokerage fees.
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Juzbig Member	08-Dec-2015 12:50        Juzbig About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes bro rawlow1945. You will have to hold on till next yr to get the 1.30. Also there is a risk of the deal not given the approval by anti trust regulators. But i think that risk is really very minimal. I duno why EB keep instilling fear that CMA will acquire 75% majority to delist NOL and then offer less than $1.30 to the other 25% share holders. They cant do that coze the 1.30 is for all nol share, it is a term for the offer. CMA cant just change the terms of it as they like. rawlow1945      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:11) Posted: You' ll get 1.30 if you wait till next year. Except if EB wants to short again at 1.10 AndyLoss      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:08) Posted: so we will also get 1.30 righ
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NOLESS Member	08-Dec-2015 12:46        NOLESS About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	When you get closer to the date of approval it won' t be this price of 1.22. The difference of 1.30 - 1.22 is the premium for the risk you take until regulatory approval. Now is the time to buy at very low risk. You' re almost assured of 1.30 provided you' re prepared to wait 6 months. After all it' s like FD like some bros say. Just park your money if you dont have immediate use for it. Octavia      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:39) Posted: No rush to buy now.Wait closer to regulatory approval is done then scoop more as it will confirmed the deal is through and be assured per share is $1.30.No need to sell in the market to save on brokerage fees. halleluyah      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:13) Posted: CMA will buy up all Nol shares at 1.30...If wt to delist it need 90%....Will keep accumulate as a fd....cheers!!!
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Qanghoo Supreme	08-Dec-2015 12:46        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	But suppose if mkt px is 1.30, say, 1 mth before pay out date, u may not mind paying the little brokerage rather than holding for 1 more month for the opportunity cost.  So, best to hold on ur option form until as late as possible?  That' s my view.  halleluyah      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:26) Posted: Yes right....why sell in open mkt fr 1.30?? Sell to CMA, dun need pay brokerage...lol AndyLoss      ( Date: 08-Dec-2015 12:19) Posted: I called DBS broker and he advised that CDP will send us a letter later with 1.30 and we will have to accept that...no need to sell in the open market... so keep on HOLDInG...:)
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fortunecat Master	08-Dec-2015 12:44        fortunecat About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	So now should hold or sell? Like everyone confused liao, price also dun know want to go up or down
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