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Amateurinvestor Veteran	16-Feb-2023 19:23        Amateurinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Another listless day, will this counter ever whack up, it is approaching now or never time now
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Segarvale Senior	16-Feb-2023 18:51        Segarvale About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hmm, npl...contractually wise interest income will still be recognised and accrued, ie Interest income in profit or loss and interest receivable in SOFP. Until they are deemed 100% uncollectible then interest receivable as bad debts in the period thereafter. Otherwise, they can still be provided as credit loss allowances and be written back when the amount owed is recovered..As long as there is money to distribute from the declared dvd payout, whether interest receivable collected is not a concern at this point in time (collaterals can be supported to offset there are extras)..well, 1.3b cash and short term investment now, so still safe...😬 the problem of not recognising such income can lead to tax issue (by paying less taxes due to income deferred etc). So come back to interest receivable, say what you have calculated as 37m for example, coy may provide allowance for this 37m based on their credit assessment, say if 10% , then maybe 3.7m loss in the profit or loss etc... volvo125      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 18:17) Posted: Eh ...... you will need to carve out the $762m NPL which may likely not yielding any interest since 1H or may be from 4Q onwards until they are amicably sorted out. At ~3% gross per quarter (~2.4% net of tax), the temporary loss of income from these NPL is likely estimated at 2.4%*2*762 = ~$37m for the 6 months. Segarvale      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 13:55) Posted: Nothing exception, 2c no problem. 1H net profit 136m. 2.4b debt investment which is ard 57% of portfolio. If trimmed down to 50% at end of year, total debt inv ard 2.1b, effective interest say 10% as per their website 2021 rate, 2H wld give ard 100m interest income. Conservatively less 40% (1H ard 28%) for expenses and those credit allowances, exchange loss etc, give net profit 60m. 136m + 60m = 196m net profit, 40% dividend payout give ard 2c..all this never take into acc the cash and short term position of 1.3b which could yield another 50m @ 4% for example. So the bonus is there..
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ss2017. Supreme	16-Feb-2023 18:47        ss2017. About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Average price for short sell or buyback is 35.7c today. Winnertakeall      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 18:41) Posted: ShortSaleVolume from SGX (FYI) 16/2 :     861700 15/2 :   2920400 14/2 :   7087100 13/2 :   1884700 10/2 :   6370400 09/2 :   2117300 08/2 : 14517200 07/2 :   1052100 06/2 :   5073000 03/2 :   3764900 02/2 :   5105700 01/2 :   3257300
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Winnertakeall Elite	16-Feb-2023 18:41        Winnertakeall About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	ShortSaleVolume from SGX (FYI) 16/2 :     861700 15/2 :   2920400 14/2 :   7087100 13/2 :   1884700 10/2 :   6370400 09/2 :   2117300 08/2 : 14517200 07/2 :   1052100 06/2 :   5073000 03/2 :   3764900 02/2 :   5105700 01/2 :   3257300
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volvo125 Master	16-Feb-2023 18:17        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Eh ...... you will need to carve out the $762m NPL which may likely not yielding any interest since 1H or may be from 4Q onwards until they are amicably sorted out. At ~3% gross per quarter (~2.4% net of tax), the temporary loss of income from these NPL is likely estimated at 2.4%*2*762 = ~$37m for the 6 months. Segarvale      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 13:55) Posted: Nothing exception, 2c no problem. 1H net profit 136m. 2.4b debt investment which is ard 57% of portfolio. If trimmed down to 50% at end of year, total debt inv ard 2.1b, effective interest say 10% as per their website 2021 rate, 2H wld give ard 100m interest income. Conservatively less 40% (1H ard 28%) for expenses and those credit allowances, exchange loss etc, give net profit 60m. 136m + 60m = 196m net profit, 40% dividend payout give ard 2c..all this never take into acc the cash and short term position of 1.3b which could yield another 50m @ 4% for example. So the bonus is there... pkli899      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 10:48) Posted: Given China' s situation during the last qtr of their reporting period, I would expect profit to be at the lower rung of your estimate. Hence, my prediction of 2c. Anything above it, is bonus to me.
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pkli899 Supreme	16-Feb-2023 14:02        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Haha, thanks Segarvale. I see your view. I just want to be conservative. I purposely lower my expectation. So that I wouldn' t be disappointed if the DPU turn out to be only 2c. Quietly I' m wishing for more la.
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Segarvale Senior	16-Feb-2023 13:55        Segarvale About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Nothing exception, 2c no problem. 1H net profit 136m. 2.4b debt investment which is ard 57% of portfolio. If trimmed down to 50% at end of year, total debt inv ard 2.1b, effective interest say 10% as per their website 2021 rate, 2H wld give ard 100m interest income. Conservatively less 40% (1H ard 28%) for expenses and those credit allowances, exchange loss etc, give net profit 60m. 136m + 60m = 196m net profit, 40% dividend payout give ard 2c..all this never take into acc the cash and short term position of 1.3b which could yield another 50m @ 4% for example. So the bonus is there... pkli899      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 10:48) Posted: Given China' s situation during the last qtr of their reporting period, I would expect profit to be at the lower rung of your estimate. Hence, my prediction of 2c. Anything above it, is bonus to me.
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Smallinvestor Senior	16-Feb-2023 13:35        Smallinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If a company with no debt and lots of assets, only see earning now.
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ss2017. Supreme	16-Feb-2023 13:29        ss2017. About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let's set two dates : 24 Feb to 3 March. Get your reserves ready to fire. pkli899      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 13:10) Posted: I would think about 2 weeks. Earliest end of Feb (12 days from now). May even be released early Mar. Results delayed because China CNY holiday many days. Always for YZJSB. End Feb or early Mar So YZJFH should also be the case.
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pkli899 Supreme	16-Feb-2023 13:10        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I would think about 2 weeks. Earliest end of Feb (12 days from now). May even be released early Mar. Results delayed because China CNY holiday many days. Always for YZJSB. End Feb or early Mar So YZJFH should also be the case.
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Amateurinvestor Veteran	16-Feb-2023 12:59        Amateurinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ya within one week we will know is either this one fly high or die hard next week
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ss2017. Supreme	16-Feb-2023 10:51        ss2017. About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes I agree with you. I take the mid range, dividend 2.3c in May Smallinvestor      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 10:40) Posted: I got same think as you. 2021 net profit $327.2mil and 1H2022 $136.4mil. So I think (estimate or guess) FY2022 profit around $220-260mil. That is how I come with the estimated 2cents to 2.6cent dividend (agar). What do you all think? pkli899      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 10:32) Posted: I think 3c is too much to ask for. 2.5c would be considered a surprise already. Based on current price, 2.5c would give a yield of 7%.
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pkli899 Supreme	16-Feb-2023 10:48        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Given China' s situation during the last qtr of their reporting period, I would expect profit to be at the lower rung of your estimate. Hence, my prediction of 2c. Anything above it, is bonus to me.
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Smallinvestor Senior	16-Feb-2023 10:40        Smallinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I got same think as you. 2021 net profit $327.2mil and 1H2022 $136.4mil. So I think (estimate or guess) FY2022 profit around $220-260mil. That is how I come with the estimated 2cents to 2.6cent dividend (agar). What do you all think? pkli899      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 10:32) Posted: I think 3c is too much to ask for. 2.5c would be considered a surprise already. Based on current price, 2.5c would give a yield of 7%.
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emailpeter Veteran	16-Feb-2023 10:38        emailpeter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good sensible comments, thanks sgng123. As a long term S/H, certainly hope these predictions pull thru. Going by the ding dong lacklustre share price, it might not seem this year.... Implication on div yields, I presume the bulk of the long term retailers ave cost at 40-50c. Perhaps only the lower holding newcomers that might have caught some at 35-40c ave. Directors and management have been giving insights over SGX release, press interviews and broker briefs. We will really need to delve hard on their words used (coupled with the results) and read/predict deeply into their projections and potentials. Look forward to more thought and discussion once results come out....cheers guys. sgng123      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 02:29) Posted: Full year result this week or next, everyone pray for good dividend and possible more hint on DI outlook and treasury stocks status. Hopefully they write back provision made in 3q22 and real estate borrowers secured bank loan to cover future interest and redeem of debt later this year. Treasury stocks hopefully would be cancel off to give boost to stock price, moving it back to 0.4X range.
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pkli899 Supreme	16-Feb-2023 10:32        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think 3c is too much to ask for. 2.5c would be considered a surprise already. Based on current price, 2.5c would give a yield of 7%.
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Smallinvestor Senior	16-Feb-2023 08:48        Smallinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Depend on use what price to calculate, price now or purchase price. So it make more sense on the price now for the buyer now(can also be those average down) vicloo      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 06:55) Posted: % is relative to purchased price. For those bought at 40-50c is 3-5% only not 8%. Amateurinvestor      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 05:44) Posted: Ya but can feel something is not right as if can get 3 cents dividend this translates to about 8% dividend but somehow people are waiting for the " goal to be scored" but not trusting the " penalty kick"
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vicloo Supreme	16-Feb-2023 06:55        vicloo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	% is relative to purchased price. For those bought at 40-50c is 3-5% only not 8%. Amateurinvestor      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 05:44) Posted: Ya but can feel something is not right as if can get 3 cents dividend this translates to about 8% dividend but somehow people are waiting for the " goal to be scored" but not trusting the " penalty kick" sgng123      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 02:29) Posted: Full year result this week or next, everyone pray for good dividend and possible more hint on DI outlook and treasury stocks status. Hopefully they write back provision made in 3q22 and real estate borrowers secured bank loan to cover future interest and redeem of debt later this year. Treasury stocks hopefully would be cancel off to give boost to stock price, moving it back to 0.4X range.
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Amateurinvestor Veteran	16-Feb-2023 05:44        Amateurinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ya but can feel something is not right as if can get 3 cents dividend this translates to about 8% dividend but somehow people are waiting for the " goal to be scored" but not trusting the " penalty kick" sgng123      ( Date: 16-Feb-2023 02:29) Posted: Full year result this week or next, everyone pray for good dividend and possible more hint on DI outlook and treasury stocks status. Hopefully they write back provision made in 3q22 and real estate borrowers secured bank loan to cover future interest and redeem of debt later this year. Treasury stocks hopefully would be cancel off to give boost to stock price, moving it back to 0.4X range.
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sgng123 Supreme	16-Feb-2023 02:29        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Full year result this week or next, everyone pray for good dividend and possible more hint on DI outlook and treasury stocks status. Hopefully they write back provision made in 3q22 and real estate borrowers secured bank loan to cover future interest and redeem of debt later this year. Treasury stocks hopefully would be cancel off to give boost to stock price, moving it back to 0.4X range.
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