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NOL Post Reply Rate topic
sgng123 Supreme	02-Aug-2013 10:00        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That why it is 50/50 on ship result next week, currently no one dared to buy/short today and maybe next week too. Too dangerous to trade till earning prospect is clearer. It is also a test to the army col ceo to whether his plan to return profitability can pass. Just monitor but no trade safety more important.
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pseudo Member	02-Aug-2013 08:24        pseudo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Jap carriers reported profits but box ships units are either flat or loss at core levels. Jap have yen advantage and domestic transport. Csav had a one time gain of 74m sgng123      ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 22:23) Posted: Chilean carrier CSAV  reported positive result for 2Q, right now almost all carriers are reporting positive 2Q result. Cross finger next week for ship result, might see positive result.
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sgng123 Supreme	01-Aug-2013 22:32        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Checked APL website and found GRI US $400 on transpacific on 1 August, followed by another PSS US$400 on 15 August. Both rate hikes are applicable to spot rate customers and service contract. Might see further  rate hike  in 3Q to boost revenue.
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sgng123 Supreme	01-Aug-2013 22:23        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Chilean carrier CSAV  reported positive result for 2Q, right now almost all carriers are reporting positive 2Q result. Cross finger next week for ship result, might see positive result.
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ynnek1267 Master	01-Aug-2013 16:27        ynnek1267 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	7 Aug, day of breaking 1 dollar. Waahahahahahahaha
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sgng123 Supreme	01-Aug-2013 16:13        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Europe manufacturing PMI returned to growth, even spain and Greece showing improving reading although still below 50. Ship  low volume traded, investors still on sideline and waiting for 2Q result so NOL investors need to be patience. If US job data on Friday see big gain then maybe ship would start moving.
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sgng123 Supreme	01-Aug-2013 13:54        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	For those still holding can patiently wait out for a few more months then u start to see ur fruit riping for pick next year. Top 3 carriers forming P3 in 2Q14 most likely had to take out excess capacity to balance out the new builts coming out this year, most likely would announce capacity withdrawn in major trading lanes in Oct or later. Else very difficult to gain any efficiency gain by joining P3 if all still releasing excess capacity to market. P3 alliance is a way for the top 3 carriers to enter into a peace deal without losing market share. Core earning for NOL had to be in the 3 digit figure to post positive net profit but again the spot rate erosion we see in May/June do   not reflect the actual demand/supply as I provided in earlier post load factor for 2Q rebound from 1Q distress level. that why I don like to use spot rate to determine ship value as it correspond more to carrier behaviour than actual demand/supply. In 1Q13 spot rate was high but demand/supply side take a big hit due to US tax hike/spending cuts, result in shitty result for ship.
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sgng123 Supreme	01-Aug-2013 13:43        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	oh yes I forgot about it lol then it is 3 days trading week. heisuke      ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 07:48) Posted: Hari Raya holiday on the 8th right? sgng123      ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 01:22) Posted: Still got 1 trading  day before market close for national day on Friday, ship result out on wed nite so got thur to go. But again don get hope too high, these few days trading volume is very low. US 2Q GDP 1.7% beat economist estimate but 1Q GDP downgraded to 1%, no wonder ship 1Q result got smashed lol. Look like Carriers got their transpacific peak surcharge > 50% in bag, now seeing how long this extra revenue gona hold on, hope it is a non event and business as usual. 2013 is more or less over for ship, next year would be a better year for container shipping due to overcapacity easing and US/Europe economy recovering.
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pseudo Member	01-Aug-2013 12:05        pseudo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If NOL core has slight loss, net loss (EBITDA - Drepreciation (1Q13 - 85M) - elimination (23M) - tax(about 30M)) will still be at the -100M levels. Basically for NOL to net profit, Core must be above 150M / quarter.
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Hawkeye Master	01-Aug-2013 08:48        Hawkeye About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Expecting a lost in 2Q2013, only loose lesser then very good already. Refer to Cosco Wan Si Tong posting, he posted wrongly in Cosco posting, that post indicate container liners still loosing in 2Q but should be closing the margin of lost. Anyway NOL still a buy to me. Accumulated already. LOL heisuke      ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 07:48) Posted: Hari Raya holiday on the 8th right? sgng123      ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 01:22) Posted: Still got 1 trading  day before market close for national day on Friday, ship result out on wed nite so got thur to go. But again don get hope too high, these few days trading volume is very low. US 2Q GDP 1.7% beat economist estimate but 1Q GDP downgraded to 1%, no wonder ship 1Q result got smashed lol. Look like Carriers got their transpacific peak surcharge > 50% in bag, now seeing how long this extra revenue gona hold on, hope it is a non event and business as usual. 2013 is more or less over for ship, next year would be a better year for container shipping due to overcapacity easing and US/Europe economy recovering.
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heisuke Member	01-Aug-2013 07:48        heisuke About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hari Raya holiday on the 8th right? sgng123      ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 01:22) Posted: Still got 1 trading  day before market close for national day on Friday, ship result out on wed nite so got thur to go. But again don get hope too high, these few days trading volume is very low. US 2Q GDP 1.7% beat economist estimate but 1Q GDP downgraded to 1%, no wonder ship 1Q result got smashed lol. Look like Carriers got their transpacific peak surcharge > 50% in bag, now seeing how long this extra revenue gona hold on, hope it is a non event and business as usual. 2013 is more or less over for ship, next year would be a better year for container shipping due to overcapacity easing and US/Europe economy recovering.
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sgng123 Supreme	01-Aug-2013 01:22        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Still got 1 trading  day before market close for national day on Friday, ship result out on wed nite so got thur to go. But again don get hope too high, these few days trading volume is very low. US 2Q GDP 1.7% beat economist estimate but 1Q GDP downgraded to 1%, no wonder ship 1Q result got smashed lol. Look like Carriers got their transpacific peak surcharge > 50% in bag, now seeing how long this extra revenue gona hold on, hope it is a non event and business as usual. 2013 is more or less over for ship, next year would be a better year for container shipping due to overcapacity easing and US/Europe economy recovering.
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heisuke Member	31-Jul-2013 22:33        heisuke About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	After results release market closed for holiday sgng123      ( Date: 31-Jul-2013 19:02) Posted: Japanese shipping companies MOL, K line, NYK all reported profit for current quarter. However since their business revenue is more broad based and not purely container shipping so not a good guide for ship result next week. Pray hard this time round the cost saving effort and fleet renewal program pay off and returned ship to positive core earning.
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sgng123 Supreme	31-Jul-2013 19:02        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Japanese shipping companies MOL, K line, NYK all reported profit for current quarter. However since their business revenue is more broad based and not purely container shipping so not a good guide for ship result next week. Pray hard this time round the cost saving effort and fleet renewal program pay off and returned ship to positive core earning.
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sgng123 Supreme	27-Jul-2013 16:10        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If US/Europe economy data turn out to be pointing to growth in 3Q/4Q, it is fly to the moon for ship as investors price in the potential return on the backing of improved operating margin and better freight rate in annual contract next year. Can skyrocket very fast in a few weeks time since the stock is being heavily bombed out and hedge funds would be forced to cover their big short positions with little sellers in sight. All retail investors is either wiped out or holding for the long haul. It is scary when there is no sellers when doing short covering, basically the sky is the limit for upward movement. 101 reasons I don like to short NOL in recession price zone, can wipe out  mine investment out in a matter of days.
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Peter_Pan Supreme	27-Jul-2013 14:09        Peter_Pan About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "kopi-o siu dai mai hum!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Watch the move. May breakout of the base to move higher.
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Hawkeye Master	27-Jul-2013 11:40        Hawkeye About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Davy Jones break surface ............ you get Jack Sparrow any how sail   LOL sgng123      ( Date: 27-Jul-2013 11:29) Posted: Next week is fun, PMI from developed countries coming out, US July job data and US 2Q GDP. If all these data pointed to a recovery in US/Europe economy recovering in 3Q/4Q then ship would slowly rise from the depth. By the way  spot rate for Europe up by 10% due to capacity reduction by carriers and next week might see if GRI and PSS would come into effect. Finally carriers are willing to remove capacity to boost profit.
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sgng123 Supreme	27-Jul-2013 11:29        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Next week is fun, PMI from developed countries coming out, US July job data and US 2Q GDP. If all these data pointed to a recovery in US/Europe economy recovering in 3Q/4Q then ship would slowly rise from the depth. By the way  spot rate for Europe up by 10% due to capacity reduction by carriers and next week might see if GRI and PSS would come into effect. Finally carriers are willing to remove capacity to boost profit.
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sgng123 Supreme	26-Jul-2013 15:24        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	End of month approaching, short covering taking place since no news coming out yet. Jumped 0.03 look like some short sellers lost money trying to bet ship would sink in 2Q.
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Peter_Pan Supreme	26-Jul-2013 15:10        Peter_Pan About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "kopi-o siu dai mai hum!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Huat ah!
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