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NOL
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dippyboy
Member |
03-Jul-2013 20:16
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
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One thing to watch out for is freight rate but dont forget volume. Revenue is price x demand. They can collude to jack up rates but the volume will got to be based on demand.And with china europe starting a all out trade war and US europe possible cancelling their FTAs and china india slowing down so much in Se asia , do you think that global trade will pick up in volume. Fat chance, in fact many smaller shipping coy will be cleanse by 2014 before a slow recover can take place not before the world get their act together after learning their lesson from trade surplus destruction in a global trade war. The global trade got to improve first before all those massive ships coming on stream can be utilized . |
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Octavia
Supreme |
03-Jul-2013 11:53
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Detusche expect an operating loss for the coming qtr. 2Q results unlikely to be much better than 1Q core net loss of US$121m which is due to be announced after market on 7 Aug. Overall container shipping rates continued to be lackluster in 2Q. While Transpacific rates were stable, Asia- Europe rates declined on the back of weak demand and excessive supply. The Shanghai Containerization Freight Composite Index (SCFI) was 1,033 in 2Q on average versus 1,180 in 1Q. The Asia-Europe portion of the index was down 38% in 2Q versus 1Q. NOL is currently trading at 0.9x 2013E P/B, which in house view is not attractive. Hence comfortable with Hold recommendation and $1.14 TP. In regional container shipping, China Shipping Container Lines (Buy, HK$2.03) and Orient Overseas International (Buy, HK$50.10) both look more compelling with 2013E P/B valuations at 0.7x and 0.9x respectively. House have Buy recommendations on both CSCL and OOIL. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
30-Jun-2013 00:39
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Just to share info about the P3 alliance from sources. Currently Maersk , MSC and CMA together control about 56% of North Europe trade, 46% of South Europe trade and 29% of transpacific trade. Can imagine the impact of them forming an alliance when they stopped doing rate war, spot rate would shoot over the roof to keep major retailers within service contract where the rate is more stable and lower than spot rate. NOL share gain a lot when announcement made almost jump 10% in 2 days but later got hit by fed reserve crap of tapering and give up all the gain. P3 members try to calm shippers that capacity would not be withdrawn from trade route but in fact they might be planning to idle/lay up excess capacity from this year new build ships, neutralising the impact of overcapacity maybe in 4Q13 or 1Q14. If demand pick up next year due to better economy then we should see some fat profit from carriers due to conservative behaviour of carriers not fighting for market share. I was quite amazed ship share price did not take off after this announcement, BB are out in June so no one got the muscles to pull the shot. Hope next week better share performance for ship. |
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Tomique
Master |
29-Jun-2013 19:07
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Not surprising to see all my shipping stocks rose by 10% to 15% last night. My Navios was up, Starbulk was up and Dryships was up. Good for bulk carriers and marine stocks investors. Congrats!! |
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sgng123
Supreme |
29-Jun-2013 10:48
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Asia - Europe spot freight rate rocket 175% about US900 to level seen in 1Q. This prove my point all there spot rate movement is highly dependent on carriers behaviour. With Maersk, MSC and CMA top 3 leaders all joining force to force P3, rate erosion in Q3 might slow down, in fact big GRI in the range of 500-800 might be in the pipeline for Q3. A repeat of last year GRI run but not going to give a big boost to ship earning as service contract most likely remain flat unless peak season surcharge pop in or management decide to ditch growth for profit by cutting capacity and putting very high load factor on ships deployed. The drastic increase in spot rate only benefit carriers who had a very big share of their revenue in spot market. To make money in tough economy environment is to cut capacity drastically and improve utilisation rate of vessel, luckily ship got lot of charter ships returned to owners this year might see a good drop in operation cost and half of new builds arrival is postponed to next year. The fat reward would come in 2014 due to improved US/Europe economy, easing of overcapacity and more conservative behaviour of carriers due to P3 formation, got another 6 more months to go. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-Jun-2013 15:46
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Those betting on rate failure now must be panic and start to cover their short position fast before every shortist rush for exit. I quite sick of the whole spot rate punting as it is not reflecting market condition, it is more of individual carriers behaviours. Noone undercut/increase market share = GRI 100% success rate, undercutting = spot rate go down the deep hole. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-Jun-2013 15:39
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For those interested in spot rate movement, SCFI just surged by 25% rising 205 meaning 80% of the GRI might just had been achieved. Now wait to see if rate can hold and carriers cut capacity to justify for future GRIs in Aug and Sep to jack up the spot rate market for peak season. This is another of the kelong issue where carriers ganged up and do a show. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-Jun-2013 14:08
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endure and stay cool. rooting up of weak players still ongoing. Today similar scenario playing out, ship want to go higher but again been sold down by big players in the afternoon, luckily today is Friday last day of week most likely would see some selling covering later. As long US/Europe economy outlook is getting better and better, then no need to panic and cut losses for NOL investors. Spot rate erosion after July GRI should slow down due to less competitive bidding by the top 3 rivals, hoping for more capacity withdrawal like what happen in massive march 2012 GRI then bombard the market with Aug, Sep with GRI 500. | ||||
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CSH123
Member |
28-Jun-2013 13:28
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mkt is now severely injured by the fools at pboc and sse. nd time recover from the severe injury | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-Jun-2013 01:52
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The spot freight rate reported in SCFI is even more kelong as the forwarder aka middleman get their spot rate quote from carriers. Basically SCFI, WCI pricing for containers is all controlled by various carriers, if carriers maintain discipline and no one undercut/fight for market share, the spot rate might actually go up lol. Now the 3 strongest carriers decided to gang up and this might reduce market undercutting to gain market share, now need to see what they going to do with excess capacity resulting from P3 formation next year. From source currently 300+ ships are deployed by the 3 carriers in the Europe/transpacific/transatlantic trade, 255 ships committed in P3 so got like 40+ ships left behind hope they idle it and return industry to profit. | ||||
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CSH123
Member |
27-Jun-2013 23:24
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its the same concept as properties. push up all the prices of outskirts. city or city fringes will naturally go up. same goes for stocks.
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CSH123
Member |
27-Jun-2013 22:47
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Look at the PE and p/b of the pennies! though its crap, DBS still recommends! example? yoma? no nd to mention the rest..its absurd!
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Jun-2013 22:28
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economy data out of US beat estimate and currently dow jones up by another 130 points. This puzzles me why today ship share price got hit suddenly after 2.30pm, dangerous time out there in Singapore market as STI give up almost all gain result only in 13 point gain compare to +40 point in morning. Our market underperform again when everyone rally we just move a bit but when a correction come we down the most. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Jun-2013 20:30
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Don worry too much, currently this year is very tough for container industry lot of new ships coming and freight rate going nowhere. Next year would be better when peace descend on container industry with less undercutting and few new deliveries. If US economy recover strongly later in 2H 2013, would point to better cargo demand in 2014. In short just treat this year like 2009 and next year like 2010 lol. | ||||
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Dividend_Warrior
Senior |
27-Jun-2013 18:59
Yells: "I am getting $1100 per month in dividends :)" |
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Becoming penny stock soon....... | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Jun-2013 17:35
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after they are rooted out then time to push up stock and enhanced stock portfolio value lol. Must always remember NOL is not for the fainted heart, it for the gutsy and heart attack prone players. Today big players pushed down ship from afternoon based on July GRI fear similar to what happen in march 2012 when they drive down NOL on doomday prediction of rate failure. All this rate erosion thing can be managed but industry leaders Maersk, MSC and CMA too busy trying to root out weaker carriers but now they into P3 alliance so I guess spot rate going to be relative tame after july. High chance all 3 might be planning layup of ships to protect peak season contract rate as they got no need to undercut each other as they already commit ships to the alliance next year. Well more heart attack sessions might be in the making, NOL investors had to be ready for it. Switch off stock monitoring TV/internet and forgot about stock till 2014 where container shipping industry prospect is better due to overcapacity easing, US/Europe economy recovering and conservative carriers behaviour due to alliance. Last 2 years of heart attacks over recession era price might be over soon , have hope and be happy. | ||||
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Heero78
Veteran |
27-Jun-2013 17:26
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dun think that there was a root out...look like some bad news coming out. I just guessing...
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heisuke
Member |
27-Jun-2013 17:16
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And what happens after they are rooted out?
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Heero78
Veteran |
27-Jun-2013 16:48
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this share is a dead end. Vested so much and never see daylight anymore. Most likely really will issue right. sigh. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Jun-2013 15:18
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Today ship trading is funny, somebody is trying very hard to push down share price whenever it start to turn green. Hundred of lots sold just to suppress share price gain, similar situation seen throughout june selling in day and cover back after market close. that why I posted not to trade in june, got big players trying hard to root out retail players. | ||||
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