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pasttime Supreme	28-Dec-2022 08:31        pasttime About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	as they process the 30% npl with renewal,think there will be more interest income and processing  fee on top of normal interest. yzjfh huating. above 2c dividend? sgng123      ( Date: 24-Dec-2022 01:40) Posted: Don worry too much on YZJFH NPL since they account for the full chuck real estate 30% alrdy Typically the borrower would pay up before their debt default since their collateral is worth more if taken and auction off. Seeing how stock price actually stabilise after news out with no support from SSB nail the guess that YZJFH price down to cash value. Now SBB not reboot meaning there Gona be a follow up on the NPL before year end as the report out on 5 Dec actually account for financial year ending 30sep. I guess now YZJFH together with their customers busy arranging for interest to be repaid for full year and next before default and borrower lose their lands. Once they settled it, they announced it and write back the NPL and provision in Dec. However don expect YZJFH to zoom to it NTA as international investors still don like china DI and PE fund. YZJFH would only trade at cash value and sg based fund valuation appro 0.55X NTA since DI and PE account for 45% total asset after YZJFH complete transition end 2023. sg most likely would hold $1b once they transfer money end 2022 or early 2023 YZJFH would hold very high cash in china after big chuck of it DI mature in 2023, trade on it cash value and sg investment. China DI and PE fund used for generating dividend so we all get annual 8+% yield from current stock price. It zoom back to it listing price once china stabilised and NPL issue resolve as interest get repaid.
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ss2017. Supreme	27-Dec-2022 19:43        ss2017. About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 3  Alert Admin	w3 surges up can be fast and furious. A golden crosss , breaking trend line resistance and dojis breakout all are pointing towards a sustainable bull run for yzjfh. Cheers from tomorrow onwards.
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sgng123 Supreme	24-Dec-2022 01:40        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 0  Alert Admin	Don worry too much on YZJFH NPL since they account for the full chuck real estate 30% alrdy Typically the borrower would pay up before their debt default since their collateral is worth more if taken and auction off. Seeing how stock price actually stabilise after news out with no support from SSB nail the guess that YZJFH price down to cash value. Now SBB not reboot meaning there Gona be a follow up on the NPL before year end as the report out on 5 Dec actually account for financial year ending 30sep. I guess now YZJFH together with their customers busy arranging for interest to be repaid for full year and next before default and borrower lose their lands. Once they settled it, they announced it and write back the NPL and provision in Dec. However don expect YZJFH to zoom to it NTA as international investors still don like china DI and PE fund. YZJFH would only trade at cash value and sg based fund valuation appro 0.55X NTA since DI and PE account for 45% total asset after YZJFH complete transition end 2023. sg most likely would hold $1b once they transfer money end 2022 or early 2023 YZJFH would hold very high cash in china after big chuck of it DI mature in 2023, trade on it cash value and sg investment. China DI and PE fund used for generating dividend so we all get annual 8+% yield from current stock price. It zoom back to it listing price once china stabilised and NPL issue resolve as interest get repaid.
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emailpeter Veteran	23-Dec-2022 23:54        emailpeter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Some very good points brought up over this last page. Volvo, you, jandec, and many others. We got to keep being objective, be it positive or negative news & deductions. Such will give us honest opinions to guide our investment strategy. Sorry I've nothing furthrr of concrete stuff to add. We seek comfort that price is hammered till cash value, and a huge potential chunk not reflected into it. Downside limited. Upside tremendous at some future years... Need lotsa patience now. Till those NPL info gets hammered out. I do know for a fact, the property defaults are huge. I get email updates from Debtwire research group. Their monthly study of very detailed individual property developers is real & telling. Agile, Forest, to Evergrande to all others, they give monthly details of defaults. Almost all are encountering defaults or delays on debt payment. Whether we want to blame covid lockdown is academic., Or engineered defaults A default is a default. It might take a year to see thru FH movements on these NPLs. sgng123      ( Date: 23-Dec-2022 19:47) Posted: Most likely the borrower would be able to avoid default on their debt by paying back the interest owned at end 2022 with cash support from china banks. the real estate DI sadly would be rolled over once debt maturity reached as debtors faced liquidity but it only account for 30% of total DI portfolio. YZJFH would be stuck with $750m of real estate DI till china property market recover, hopefully rest of DI no more default and principal all returned once mature. According to the plan once DI reduced to 30%, another big slice of free cash would be free up and most likely the stock price would reflect. It can double in value in very short time as the free up cash appro $1.2b same as current free cash.
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sgng123 Supreme	23-Dec-2022 19:47        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Most likely the borrower would be able to avoid default on their debt by paying back the interest owned at end 2022 with cash support from china banks. the real estate DI sadly would be rolled over once debt maturity reached as debtors faced liquidity but it only account for 30% of total DI portfolio. YZJFH would be stuck with $750m of real estate DI till china property market recover, hopefully rest of DI no more default and principal all returned once mature. According to the plan once DI reduced to 30%, another big slice of free cash would be free up and most likely the stock price would reflect. It can double in value in very short time as the free up cash appro $1.2b same as current free cash.
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Jandec Veteran	23-Dec-2022 13:09        Jandec About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 1  Alert Admin	A third world war seems unlikely at this time, as there is no incentive to invite disaster to home - Xi and Putin knows this very well. China will recover from the covid situation they brought upon themselves due to mismanagement and pride. But eventually they will come back. so when that time comes, which could be very soon, I think the stock price of YZJ financial will be spiralling upwards like nobody business. Now it' s so low, a more than 100% profit is very possible for those who keep and wait.  As for traders, they will continue to punt on the stock, but once a change comes back, the short positions can bankrupt those who short big on leverage using CFD.  so its advisable not to short this stock.The past weeks show us that Xi is not totally unreasonable, just a bit low IQ with big ego that' s all. He didn' t plan for the situation breaking out in China today, this testifies to the low IQ and the big ego tag. But it also shows he will back down when he knows he cannot win. So unlikely he will try to start a war. As for Putin, he' s now so trapped in his Ukraine war that a possible backing down may be coming soon - he can' t win, not if Patriot missiles are in Ukraine. He also knows that Ukraine has capability to go all the way to Moscow to create mayhem if they choose.  Supposing Ukraine has nuclear capability? Putin cannot devastate Ukraine, if he tries, the Patriot missiles intercepts. But once he presses the button to fire nuclear missiles, they may find Russia itself may come under attack. I think once the Patriot goes into Ukraine, the war game changes dramatically.  Israel has Patriot, that' s why able to survive with hostile neighbours. Can' t rule out possibility Ukraine won' t get hold of nuclear weapons. Or even biological. Russians can no longer think this is a one sided, sure win war. There' s a price to pay for aggression. I think this is the way it will roll out in 2023. Peace will come. And stocks will fly, given inflation is lowered and Fed has less pressure to continue pumping rate increases.
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pasttime Supreme	23-Dec-2022 07:53        pasttime About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	concur with volvo125 opinion. key to winning is to buy small amount relative to your overall porfolio. so as not to be affected by price movement. in time when big operator has done their job either cover shorts or accumulate then price will move up. to win just don' t get shake out. it is quite difficult to cover the shorts reported. the average shorts value per share has moved up form 33.5 to 34.5.  still has 48m to go. hope they cover soon as each day pass we get nearer to reporting date. after financial reporting if there is any attempt to dump down it can be coiunter with share buy back as there are 135m+ shares capacity available before hitting limit.  think share buy back also cannot do now as no real shares sell available.  i think shorts in a way is trap. any covering will results in more people on side line to jump in causing price to spiral up. always suspect the big trade at 34.5 is not real. just to create frustrations so to be able to slowly buy back at 35. my opinion only dyodd
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volvo125 Master	22-Dec-2022 23:51        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	We do not know and we cannot tell because we do not have the system to see detailed trade flows. For example, the BBs can deploy $10m to burst dump the price at short intervals to quickly and persistently hammer down the price and suppress it, and then deploy $20m over their desired longer time frame to buy back at the lower cost at their calibrated pace. The $10m burst dumps will trigger fear and attract truckloads of shorts to jump in and collectively hammer a 0.40 price to 0.31 within a short period. Thereafter the $20m or more buying back at a calibrated suppressive efforts can take many weeks or months in the ~0.33, then 0.34, then 0.35, then 0.36 ..... etc The BBs could really be accumulating with a massive Net Buy at the current low cost .... we don' t know ..... Now, one more thing to add from my previous post to give you even more confidence in holding YFH. In the unfortunate doomsday scenario that the NPL $762m suay suay ought to be fully written off with also suay suay zero recourse on monetizing the collaterals, YFH Nav will fall by 0.206 per share at the current 3691m o/s, giving a new Nav per share of 0.89. At the current price ~0.35, YFH is still deeply discounted by 61% agianst its intrinsic value and is still a very good buy. And, after the write off, YFH balance sheet is still rock solid net cash with zero default risk, though at a lower Nav 0.89. Steady right ?   soeteono      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 19:26) Posted: Thanks Volvo for your hard works . Just bewildered why the BBs are not buying big at this level ? Are we missing something that the BBs don't ? volvo125      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 18:40) Posted: The last known cash and cash equivalent assets reported as at 30Sep22 update has worked out to  ~$1.193B. At 3691 o/s, the cash value per share is ~0.325. Those synthicated band of Sellers can fear mongered by discounting all the assets but certainly not the Cash because the value of Cash is absolute, as in $1.193B is still undisputedly $1.193B.. This cash value will still be 0.325 even if  (1) the entire $762m NPL really becomes bad, and (2) need to be " fully" written off,  and (3) with all the supposedly very well buffered 1.2~2.3x collaterals also somehow mysteriously become worthless or cannot be seized. These $762m NPL are YFH own assets so writing off fully will only affect the NAV, and future earning streams, but certainly not the Cash. At this juncture, ~0.33 is the bare naked floor support. Unless there is a nasty WW3 in Asia or a civil war in China, for (1) or (2) or (3), or (1) and (2) and (3) to happen is a doomsday scenario that is really very, very remote. There will be write off but the impact will not be this exaggerating $762m max fear impact. The NPL could possibly dent YFH valuation to some degree BUT YFH net cash balance sheet is still very rock solid with negligible S/T and L/T debts. There is zero default risk. There is really nothing to worry about,  except probably the irritation to put up with the persistent fear mongering of those unknown big synthicated sellers that are still suppressing the price for God knows the reason.
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volvo125 Master	22-Dec-2022 23:12        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes ... which is why if the investor has stakes in the coy, it is important that he must seek to gain a far deeper understanding on the coy financial fundamental in order to make an objective assessment on key issues such as the risk of default, the risk of frauds, the nature and magnitude of the external challenges impacting on its revenues and incomes  .... etc, the nature of its internal challenges such as its competency relevance, cash sufficiency .... etc. This financial appraisal skillset is important to shield the investor from all the fear mongering and in turn help him decides if the problem is indeed over exaggerated and the safety margin is still intact, or that the problem is alarmingly approaching terminal and warrant an exit. john1703      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 18:57) Posted: I have experience investing in companies with almost zero debt getting bashed down to net cash value stock price level because market took advantage of the negative situation. But once the outlook become positice, the price will shoot up tremendously to a fairer value. For these companies, my only regret was selling too cheap when the price start rising.
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GoldenPig Veteran	22-Dec-2022 22:31        GoldenPig About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 1  Alert Admin	Yes, always thankful to Volvo for his clear well-considered analyses. I do not think there is anything fundamentally wrong with YZJFH.  Sometimes the market can be very irrational and misprice a share drastically in the short term. And the short term can be a couple of years. If market sentiment is bad enough, the price may even drop way below cash value per share. Those who do not panic sell or those who have the foresight and fortitude to add during this time will be rewarded when the price eventually reverts to fair value. Based on the latest company announcements and news in China, it is highly likely that there will be net earnings and dividends to collect while we wait.   soeteono      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 19:26) Posted: Thanks Volvo for your hard works . Just bewildered why the BBs are not buying big at this level ? Are we missing something that the BBs don't ? volvo125      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 18:40) Posted: The last known cash and cash equivalent assets reported as at 30Sep22 update has worked out to  ~$1.193B. At 3691 o/s, the cash value per share is ~0.325. Those synthicated band of Sellers can fear mongered by discounting all the assets but certainly not the Cash because the value of Cash is absolute, as in $1.193B is still undisputedly $1.193B.. This cash value will still be 0.325 even if  (1) the entire $762m NPL really becomes bad, and (2) need to be " fully" written off,  and (3) with all the supposedly very well buffered 1.2~2.3x collaterals also somehow mysteriously become worthless or cannot be seized. These $762m NPL are YFH own assets so writing off fully will only affect the NAV, and future earning streams, but certainly not the Cash. At this juncture, ~0.33 is the bare naked floor support. Unless there is a nasty WW3 in Asia or a civil war in China, for (1) or (2) or (3), or (1) and (2) and (3) to happen is a doomsday scenario that is really very, very remote. There will be write off but the impact will not be this exaggerating $762m max fear impact. The NPL could possibly dent YFH valuation to some degree BUT YFH net cash balance sheet is still very rock solid with negligible S/T and L/T debts. There is zero default risk. There is really nothing to worry about,  except probably the irritation to put up with the persistent fear mongering of those unknown big synthicated sellers that are still suppressing the price for God knows the reason.
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soeteono Senior	22-Dec-2022 19:26        soeteono About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks Volvo for your hard works . Just bewildered why the BBs are not buying big at this level ? Are we missing something that the BBs don't ? volvo125      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 18:40) Posted: The last known cash and cash equivalent assets reported as at 30Sep22 update has worked out to  ~$1.193B. At 3691 o/s, the cash value per share is ~0.325. Those synthicated band of Sellers can fear mongered by discounting all the assets but certainly not the Cash because the value of Cash is absolute, as in $1.193B is still undisputedly $1.193B.. This cash value will still be 0.325 even if  (1) the entire $762m NPL really becomes bad, and (2) need to be " fully" written off,  and (3) with all the supposedly very well buffered 1.2~2.3x collaterals also somehow mysteriously become worthless or cannot be seized. These $762m NPL are YFH own assets so writing off fully will only affect the NAV, and future earning streams, but certainly not the Cash. At this juncture, ~0.33 is the bare naked floor support. Unless there is a nasty WW3 in Asia or a civil war in China, for (1) or (2) or (3), or (1) and (2) and (3) to happen is a doomsday scenario that is really very, very remote. There will be write off but the impact will not be this exaggerating $762m max fear impact. The NPL could possibly dent YFH valuation to some degree BUT YFH net cash balance sheet is still very rock solid with negligible S/T and L/T debts. There is zero default risk. There is really nothing to worry about,  except probably the irritation to put up with the persistent fear mongering of those unknown big synthicated sellers that are still suppressing the price for God knows the reason.   tch77_pt75      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 04:57) Posted: I think the share price is about $0.69 when launched. If the reference of $0.35 can be taken, why not make it lower to have a greater number, ie 4x, 5x et
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john1703 Member	22-Dec-2022 18:57        john1703 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I have experience investing in companies with almost zero debt getting bashed down to net cash value stock price level because market took advantage of the negative situation. But once the outlook become positice, the price will shoot up tremendously to a fairer value. For these companies, my only regret was selling too cheap when the price start rising.
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volvo125 Master	22-Dec-2022 18:40        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	The last known cash and cash equivalent assets reported as at 30Sep22 update has worked out to  ~$1.193B. At 3691 o/s, the cash value per share is ~0.325. Those synthicated band of Sellers can fear mongered by discounting all the assets but certainly not the Cash because the value of Cash is absolute, as in $1.193B is still undisputedly $1.193B.. This cash value will still be 0.325 even if  (1) the entire $762m NPL really becomes bad, and (2) need to be " fully" written off,  and (3) with all the supposedly very well buffered 1.2~2.3x collaterals also somehow mysteriously become worthless or cannot be seized. These $762m NPL are YFH own assets so writing off fully will only affect the NAV, and future earning streams, but certainly not the Cash. At this juncture, ~0.33 is the bare naked floor support. Unless there is a nasty WW3 in Asia or a civil war in China, for (1) or (2) or (3), or (1) and (2) and (3) to happen is a doomsday scenario that is really very, very remote. There will be write off but the impact will not be this exaggerating $762m max fear impact. The NPL could possibly dent YFH valuation to some degree BUT YFH net cash balance sheet is still very rock solid with negligible S/T and L/T debts. There is zero default risk. There is really nothing to worry about,  except probably the irritation to put up with the persistent fear mongering of those unknown big synthicated sellers that are still suppressing the price for God knows the reason.   tch77_pt75      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 04:57) Posted: I think the share price is about $0.69 when launched. If the reference of $0.35 can be taken, why not make it lower to have a greater number, ie 4x, 5x etc volvo125      ( Date: 21-Dec-2022 21:00) Posted: Ha ha . . ya ... 0.35 to 1.05 is 3x. May be the band of these ultra big unknown sellers who are forcefully suppressing the price down now have this long objective to deeply accumulate a super strong low cost base, so that they could profit handsomely from engineering the price gradual up to 1.05 eventually plus the DR listing in ~3 years .....
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sgng123 Supreme	22-Dec-2022 12:23        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Currently YZJFH trading at china lockdown valuation, basically all china based assets ignor, only reflecting the free cash value of $1.2+ b. To go higher china need to transit to norm and reduction of DI to 30%. Free up another $1.2b when DI get reduced, don think there Gona be any big write down but market pricing total elimination of whole DI and PE. Current price is the Doomday price where market expect YZJFH to lose all it china asset. Market just very harsh on YZJFH due to transparency issue of china based business similar to all china based companies. If china stabilise then YZJFH would get proper valuation but it not Gona be gradually but instant jump to valuation
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vicloo Supreme	22-Dec-2022 09:09        vicloo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Spore has very little high tech listing, example Creative.... Not really leading tech co. vicloo      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 09:06) Posted: This is because US has big tech like Tesla, Apple, google, microsoft listings... Big tech profit is a lot higher than tradional companies banks, taxi, retail or OEMs... Like Apple profit in iphone is 20-30%, foxcon who is OEM for apple makes 2% margin... Etc Thats already the case for last whole decade... Our indexes grows a lot slower... 😭 . China is going stronger in tech sector, thats why USA attacking its tech companies now... Haha. Hawkeye      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 08:58) Posted: US market is highly over priced and expensive now, 17x 18x. Soon funds are coming back to asia.  Investor will be looking for undervalued stock in Asia.
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vicloo Supreme	22-Dec-2022 09:06        vicloo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	This is because US has big tech like Tesla, Apple, google, microsoft listings... Big tech profit is a lot higher than tradional companies banks, taxi, retail or OEMs... Like Apple profit in iphone is 20-30%, foxcon who is OEM for apple makes 2% margin... Etc Thats already the case for last whole decade... Our indexes grows a lot slower... 😭 . China is going stronger in tech sector, thats why USA attacking its tech companies now... Haha. Hawkeye      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 08:58) Posted: US market is highly over priced and expensive now, 17x 18x. Soon funds are coming back to asia.  Investor will be looking for undervalued stock in Asia.
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explosive2013 Master	22-Dec-2022 09:00        explosive2013 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 2  Alert Admin	Please learn from the past bankrupted company experience. Insider and institutional fund alway smart. They dont buy coz they are smart.. Remember this theory. . I will wait $1b+ DI writeoff then start buy. Dyodd.. No buy or sell advise. tch77_pt75      ( Date: 22-Dec-2022 04:57) Posted: I think the share price is about $0.69 when launched. If the reference of $0.35 can be taken, why not make it lower to have a greater number, ie 4x, 5x etc volvo125      ( Date: 21-Dec-2022 21:00) Posted: Ha ha . . ya ... 0.35 to 1.05 is 3x. May be the band of these ultra big unknown sellers who are forcefully suppressing the price down now have this long objective to deeply accumulate a super strong low cost base, so that they could profit handsomely from engineering the price gradual up to 1.05 eventually plus the DR listing in ~3 years .....
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Hawkeye Master	22-Dec-2022 08:58        Hawkeye About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	US market is highly over priced and expensive now, 17x 18x. Soon funds are coming back to asia.  Investor will be looking for undervalued stock in Asia.
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pasttime Supreme	22-Dec-2022 07:23        pasttime About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	all who want to accumulate will be hoping for the price to go down. that is normally when the reverse happen as if it cannot be press down then more will buy after running out of patient. the way up will not be straight up but dotted with profit taking along the way. it is still quite far away for many short term and mid term buyers. dyodd
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tch77_pt75 Veteran	22-Dec-2022 04:57        tch77_pt75 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 3  Alert Admin	I think the share price is about $0.69 when launched. If the reference of $0.35 can be taken, why not make it lower to have a greater number, ie 4x, 5x etc volvo125      ( Date: 21-Dec-2022 21:00) Posted: Ha ha . . ya ... 0.35 to 1.05 is 3x. May be the band of these ultra big unknown sellers who are forcefully suppressing the price down now have this long objective to deeply accumulate a super strong low cost base, so that they could profit handsomely from engineering the price gradual up to 1.05 eventually plus the DR listing in ~3 years .....
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