Back

Latest Forum Topics / YZJ Fin Hldg    Last:0.24    +0.005

Post Reply

YZJFH - potentially rewarding Post Reply Rate topic
vicloo Supreme	09-Dec-2022 06:37        vicloo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	At the end truth will come... How much $ to be shared as dividend... Before we talk about 40%. If that's mean 4-5% per share div per share... YJZFH redeem itself fully. This happened to China reit like SASSEUR REIT, stock price recovered quite a long after it really div near 10% div of its share price! sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 22:15) Posted: Depend on whether SSB can completed before audited results. If 10% SSB mandate completed, chance of higher dividend .in introduction listing they did mention dividend come from income generating DI so might get a better yield if YZJFH management decide to give. Private equity fund, GE funds etc all are asset enhancement money earned all get plough back. That why DI never scrap but reduced to 30% by 2023. But chill DI income most likely made up more than 50% of profit so don worry abt dividend. I more worry abt dismal stock price which could affect investors confidence in investing in YZJFH product. In August report each stock carried cash value of $0.50 more than current stock price not to mention it get higher and higher once DI get reduced to 30% Greatest mystery in 2022 why YZJFH get smash while YZJSH soar lol.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
YibaoI Senior	08-Dec-2022 22:28        YibaoI About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Likely due to yzjfh have not yet proven itself i guess as investment company standalone away from yzjsh. once dividend is out and full year reports and we know more on their future investment going forward should give the boost and confidence for investors as they will have clearer picture. anyway BB are playing. we just stay sideline watch show.  sbb not starting back very likely means got more news coming out from the company in near future. just wait ba for sbb to start back after that
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	08-Dec-2022 22:15        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Depend on whether SSB can completed before audited results. If 10% SSB mandate completed, chance of higher dividend .in introduction listing they did mention dividend come from income generating DI so might get a better yield if YZJFH management decide to give. Private equity fund, GE funds etc all are asset enhancement money earned all get plough back. That why DI never scrap but reduced to 30% by 2023. But chill DI income most likely made up more than 50% of profit so don worry abt dividend. I more worry abt dismal stock price which could affect investors confidence in investing in YZJFH product. In August report each stock carried cash value of $0.50 more than current stock price not to mention it get higher and higher once DI get reduced to 30% Greatest mystery in 2022 why YZJFH get smash while YZJSH soar lol.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Amateurinvestor Veteran	08-Dec-2022 22:10        Amateurinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just mind boggling with such a big carrot dangling in front in plain sight but price keeps creeping down vicloo      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 21:57) Posted: Let's see how much % div based on current pathetic share price of 33c....hope it is at least 6-8% i.e. 2-3c div per share at least. TBILL return based on latest bidding is 4.4% https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapores-latest-six-month-treasury-bill-offers-decades-high-yield-44 sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 17:53) Posted: Dividend min 40% not at 40%, depending on Ren YL mood he might decide to give higher dividend to compensate investors for the decline in price
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
vicloo Supreme	08-Dec-2022 21:57        vicloo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let's see how much % div based on current pathetic share price of 33c....hope it is at least 6-8% i.e. 2-3c div per share at least. TBILL return based on latest bidding is 4.4% https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapores-latest-six-month-treasury-bill-offers-decades-high-yield-44 sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 17:53) Posted: Dividend min 40% not at 40%, depending on Ren YL mood he might decide to give higher dividend to compensate investors for the decline in price. volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 16:15) Posted:   I would like to reiterate here that, if the latest Nav 1.0923 stated by YFH is referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022 ( ie, not the old 3937m as at 30Jun2022, or 3951m that CIMB was still strangely using, or the latest 3691m that was last registered as on 31Oct2022 ), which I think it should unless the CFO LiuHua or CEO Toe were dumb enough to overlook the mistake, then this Nav could be crudely reverse engineered with the 3Q RMB devaluation against SGD + new NPL provisions to give a 3Q NPAT $61m. @emailpeter had made a crude 4Q NPAT projection of $55m with a haircut assumption using 3Q $61m as reference, noting on the loss of income on the affected NPL 777m portion. FY22 NPAT was projected at $252m, higher than YFH/CIMB prevailing guided NPAT $220m.    I think the projection is reasonable, provided 1) the nav  1.09223@3744m  o/s is indeed valid, 2) no more new and huge provision from the NPL. @emailpeter estimated the dividend payout using a 90% SBB assumption, which was also what I did earlier before the SBB was abruptly stopped on 31oct2022. I tend to have a different view now. Treasury shares are excluded from EPS and DPS so EPS and DPS will increase accordingly. However, I am not sure when is the cut off point now because FY22 result is contingent on 31Dec2022 where EPS will be declared based on the shares o/s as at 31Dec2022. YFH may continue to SBB until 1 month before FY22 release in mid~late Feb or early Mar, and then SBB again until AGM as long as the max is still not reached. Book close for dividend payout is in mid~late Apr. The shares o/s as at 31Dec2022 and Book close in Apr2023 are very different. I tend to think now that the cut off to determine the shares o/s for dividend payouts is likely set at 31Dec2022. Since YFH has not rebooted SBB for unkown reason(s) after releasing the 3Q, I would now conservatively assume no more SBB until probably the commencement of Jan 2023. I would use 3691m o/s or 66% SBB as the cut off for dividend payout. EPS = $252m / 3691 = 0.0683 DPS = 0.6827 * 0.40 = $0.0273, rounded off to $0.027. At current price ~0.34, yield = 7.9% Now, if we assume a very bad scenario such that  there are more nasty huge NPL provisions to add such that YFH just breakeven in 4Q, then FY22 NPAT would be 136m + 61m = $197m EPS = $197 / 3691 = 0.0534 DPS = 0.0534 * 0.4 = 0.0213, rounded off to $0.021 At current price ~0.34, yield = 6.2% And further, if we are even more conserative, we can take a 50% cut on the re-engineered 3Q NPAT 61m. EPS = [ 136 + ( 61 * 0.5 ) ] / 3691 = 0.0451 DPS = 0.0451 * 0.4 = 0.018 At current price ~0.34, yield = 5.3% So you could be looking at a DPS of between 0.18 to 0.27.  Again, I would like to reiterate here one more time that if the stated Nav 1.0923 by YFH is validly referenced to 3744m o/s, then I think DPS 0.27 is a reasonable expectation.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	08-Dec-2022 21:57        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don anyhow quote profit or cash loh, everything need to be audited. 3q update is only business update not financial result. u had to wait next year to know the actual data. For now just know that NPL go up significantly due to interest and principal not paid or return on time. NTA, EPS etc all had to wait till next year then know. For now focus on SSB reactivate and whether Ren YL would go in market and increase his stake. 3q update just a guide on business ended 30sep, not up to date with current market. volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 19:29) Posted: Yes, shares cancellation will boost Nav per share permanently up. The current boosting up of Nav per shares is still not " permanent" as the coy can release the treasury shares for corporate actions such as M& A ... etc, which again will dilute the Nav down to the amount of shares being used. The SG Company Aat has stipulated that Treasury shares must not exceed 10% of the Coy float at all time. Hence, in order to renew the SBB once the current 395m SBB is max out, YFH will need to cancel shares, in part or in full, in order to restore the SBB. So Yes, I am also expecting YFH to cancel shares in due course.  No, the current Nav as of today will be based on the latest known 3691m shares o/s, not 3955m, or 3937m that YFH used to derived the Nav 1.0745 in the 1H2022 report.. For the 3Q reporting, the Nav 1.0923 quoted must be referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022, else all the numbers quoted in the 3Q report will be garbage. The SBB 206m shares as at 30Sep2022 had boosted up but RMB devaluation and the NPL provision had almost wiped off the gain. It was the positive 3Q NPAT that lifted the Nav up to 1.0923. The Nav per shares has improved from 1.0745 to 1.0923 due to a lower 3691m o/s, BUT the absolute dollar value of the Net Asset as reflected in the Balance Sheet has actually reduced from $4230m as at 1H2022 to $4089m as at 30Sep2022. . sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 18:19) Posted: Patience difficult to make fast buck u lose more than u win. let see if Ren YL make his move since he make it clear in Nov edge report he not happy abt the stock price. Big move by him would move the stock as shortlist exit, best if YZJFH cancel treasury stocks which guarantee improvement to NTA etc., effectively diluting small investors and boosting Ren . Currently NTA still calculated on 3955 so in fact YZJFH aum grows in 3q lol 1.07 to 1.09.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	08-Dec-2022 21:40        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don look too much into 3q update, need auditor to audit then can confirm. Just know YZJFH had placed DI in real estate into NPL while making 14.7m provision on principal not returned. All the DI already covered by land collaterals which is worth more than debt. Currently situation caused by earlier market rout in Oct and people holding off paying interest and returning their debt till coast clear. Market in china more or less stabilised after CCP cash injection into real estate and COVID restriction easing. Anyway 3q update lag current market development since report late by 1 MTH should had release in Nov. SSB still not activated, guess they got more news to release.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
volvo125 Master	08-Dec-2022 19:29        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, shares cancellation will boost Nav per share permanently up. The current boosting up of Nav per shares is still not " permanent" as the coy can release the treasury shares for corporate actions such as M& A ... etc, which again will dilute the Nav down to the amount of shares being used. The SG Company Aat has stipulated that Treasury shares must not exceed 10% of the Coy float at all time. Hence, in order to renew the SBB once the current 395m SBB is max out, YFH will need to cancel shares, in part or in full, in order to restore the SBB. So Yes, I am also expecting YFH to cancel shares in due course.  No, the current Nav as of today will be based on the latest known 3691m shares o/s, not 3955m, or 3937m that YFH used to derived the Nav 1.0745 in the 1H2022 report.. For the 3Q reporting, the Nav 1.0923 quoted must be referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022, else all the numbers quoted in the 3Q report will be garbage. The SBB 206m shares as at 30Sep2022 had boosted up but RMB devaluation and the NPL provision had almost wiped off the gain. It was the positive 3Q NPAT that lifted the Nav up to 1.0923. The Nav per shares has improved from 1.0745 to 1.0923 due to a lower 3691m o/s, BUT the absolute dollar value of the Net Asset as reflected in the Balance Sheet has actually reduced from $4230m as at 1H2022 to $4089m as at 30Sep2022. . sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 18:19) Posted: Patience difficult to make fast buck u lose more than u win. let see if Ren YL make his move since he make it clear in Nov edge report he not happy abt the stock price. Big move by him would move the stock as shortlist exit, best if YZJFH cancel treasury stocks which guarantee improvement to NTA etc., effectively diluting small investors and boosting Ren . Currently NTA still calculated on 3955 so in fact YZJFH aum grows in 3q lol 1.07 to 1.09.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	08-Dec-2022 18:19        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Patience difficult to make fast buck u lose more than u win. let see if Ren YL make his move since he make it clear in Nov edge report he not happy abt the stock price. Big move by him would move the stock as shortlist exit, best if YZJFH cancel treasury stocks which guarantee improvement to NTA etc., effectively diluting small investors and boosting Ren . Currently NTA still calculated on 3955 so in fact YZJFH aum grows in 3q lol 1.07 to 1.09.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
ss2017. Supreme	08-Dec-2022 18:00        ss2017. About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	If retail share holders oneday make profit from YZJFH, we must thank firstly the Mgt generosity, secondly our tenancy and thirdly China mkt condition improvement. Now what we can do is nothing, just wait passively. Hope we are in the care of good hands. Luck plays an important part....
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
volvo125 Master	08-Dec-2022 17:55        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No, treasury shares are not entitled to voting rights and dividends regardless if they are cancelled, according to the SG Company Act. sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 17:49) Posted: They still using 3955m to calculate as treasury stocks only lose right to vote and no dividend received. only when they cancel the treasury stocks through SGX announcement and burn 99mil in progress, then 3690mil used. It consider cheap as SSB buyback at heavy discount . It might be in progress to cancel it as there a SGX news in Oct highlight Ren stake go up as a result of SSB. Cancel 250+mil stocks would it drive up stock price compared to 100m stake reduction by t Rowe which caused a 20% slide? volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 16:15) Posted:   I would like to reiterate here that, if the latest Nav 1.0923 stated by YFH is referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022 ( ie, not the old 3937m as at 30Jun2022, or 3951m that CIMB was still strangely using, or the latest 3691m that was last registered as on 31Oct2022 ), which I think it should unless the CFO LiuHua or CEO Toe were dumb enough to overlook the mistake, then this Nav could be crudely reverse engineered with the 3Q RMB devaluation against SGD + new NPL provisions to give a 3Q NPAT $61m. @emailpeter had made a crude 4Q NPAT projection of $55m with a haircut assumption using 3Q $61m as reference, noting on the loss of income on the affected NPL 777m portion. FY22 NPAT was projected at $252m, higher than YFH/CIMB prevailing guided NPAT $220m.    I think the projection is reasonable, provided 1) the nav  1.09223@3744m  o/s is indeed valid, 2) no more new and huge provision from the NPL. @emailpeter estimated the dividend payout using a 90% SBB assumption, which was also what I did earlier before the SBB was abruptly stopped on 31oct2022. I tend to have a different view now. Treasury shares are excluded from EPS and DPS so EPS and DPS will increase accordingly. However, I am not sure when is the cut off point now because FY22 result is contingent on 31Dec2022 where EPS will be declared based on the shares o/s as at 31Dec2022. YFH may continue to SBB until 1 month before FY22 release in mid~late Feb or early Mar, and then SBB again until AGM as long as the max is still not reached. Book close for dividend payout is in mid~late Apr. The shares o/s as at 31Dec2022 and Book close in Apr2023 are very different. I tend to think now that the cut off to determine the shares o/s for dividend payouts is likely set at 31Dec2022. Since YFH has not rebooted SBB for unkown reason(s) after releasing the 3Q, I would now conservatively assume no more SBB until probably the commencement of Jan 2023. I would use 3691m o/s or 66% SBB as the cut off for dividend payout. EPS = $252m / 3691 = 0.0683 DPS = 0.6827 * 0.40 = $0.0273, rounded off to $0.027. At current price ~0.34, yield = 7.9% Now, if we assume a very bad scenario such that  there are more nasty huge NPL provisions to add such that YFH just breakeven in 4Q, then FY22 NPAT would be 136m + 61m = $197m EPS = $197 / 3691 = 0.0534 DPS = 0.0534 * 0.4 = 0.0213, rounded off to $0.021 At current price ~0.34, yield = 6.2% And further, if we are even more conserative, we can take a 50% cut on the re-engineered 3Q NPAT 61m. EPS = [ 136 + ( 61 * 0.5 ) ] / 3691 = 0.0451 DPS = 0.0451 * 0.4 = 0.018 At current price ~0.34, yield = 5.3% So you could be looking at a DPS of between 0.18 to 0.27.  Again, I would like to reiterate here one more time that if the stated Nav 1.0923 by YFH is validly referenced to 3744m o/s, then I think DPS 0.27 is a reasonable expectation.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	08-Dec-2022 17:53        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dividend min 40% not at 40%, depending on Ren YL mood he might decide to give higher dividend to compensate investors for the decline in price. volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 16:15) Posted:   I would like to reiterate here that, if the latest Nav 1.0923 stated by YFH is referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022 ( ie, not the old 3937m as at 30Jun2022, or 3951m that CIMB was still strangely using, or the latest 3691m that was last registered as on 31Oct2022 ), which I think it should unless the CFO LiuHua or CEO Toe were dumb enough to overlook the mistake, then this Nav could be crudely reverse engineered with the 3Q RMB devaluation against SGD + new NPL provisions to give a 3Q NPAT $61m. @emailpeter had made a crude 4Q NPAT projection of $55m with a haircut assumption using 3Q $61m as reference, noting on the loss of income on the affected NPL 777m portion. FY22 NPAT was projected at $252m, higher than YFH/CIMB prevailing guided NPAT $220m.    I think the projection is reasonable, provided 1) the nav  1.09223@3744m  o/s is indeed valid, 2) no more new and huge provision from the NPL. @emailpeter estimated the dividend payout using a 90% SBB assumption, which was also what I did earlier before the SBB was abruptly stopped on 31oct2022. I tend to have a different view now. Treasury shares are excluded from EPS and DPS so EPS and DPS will increase accordingly. However, I am not sure when is the cut off point now because FY22 result is contingent on 31Dec2022 where EPS will be declared based on the shares o/s as at 31Dec2022. YFH may continue to SBB until 1 month before FY22 release in mid~late Feb or early Mar, and then SBB again until AGM as long as the max is still not reached. Book close for dividend payout is in mid~late Apr. The shares o/s as at 31Dec2022 and Book close in Apr2023 are very different. I tend to think now that the cut off to determine the shares o/s for dividend payouts is likely set at 31Dec2022. Since YFH has not rebooted SBB for unkown reason(s) after releasing the 3Q, I would now conservatively assume no more SBB until probably the commencement of Jan 2023. I would use 3691m o/s or 66% SBB as the cut off for dividend payout. EPS = $252m / 3691 = 0.0683 DPS = 0.6827 * 0.40 = $0.0273, rounded off to $0.027. At current price ~0.34, yield = 7.9% Now, if we assume a very bad scenario such that  there are more nasty huge NPL provisions to add such that YFH just breakeven in 4Q, then FY22 NPAT would be 136m + 61m = $197m EPS = $197 / 3691 = 0.0534 DPS = 0.0534 * 0.4 = 0.0213, rounded off to $0.021 At current price ~0.34, yield = 6.2% And further, if we are even more conserative, we can take a 50% cut on the re-engineered 3Q NPAT 61m. EPS = [ 136 + ( 61 * 0.5 ) ] / 3691 = 0.0451 DPS = 0.0451 * 0.4 = 0.018 At current price ~0.34, yield = 5.3% So you could be looking at a DPS of between 0.18 to 0.27.  Again, I would like to reiterate here one more time that if the stated Nav 1.0923 by YFH is validly referenced to 3744m o/s, then I think DPS 0.27 is a reasonable expectation. UMIST13      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 12:11) Posted: Hello Volvo , thanks for the good analysis. So what is the expected dividend ? Thanks
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	08-Dec-2022 17:49        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	They still using 3955m to calculate as treasury stocks only lose right to vote and no dividend received. only when they cancel the treasury stocks through SGX announcement and burn 99mil in progress, then 3690mil used. It consider cheap as SSB buyback at heavy discount . It might be in progress to cancel it as there a SGX news in Oct highlight Ren stake go up as a result of SSB. Cancel 250+mil stocks would it drive up stock price compared to 100m stake reduction by t Rowe which caused a 20% slide? volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 16:15) Posted:   I would like to reiterate here that, if the latest Nav 1.0923 stated by YFH is referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022 ( ie, not the old 3937m as at 30Jun2022, or 3951m that CIMB was still strangely using, or the latest 3691m that was last registered as on 31Oct2022 ), which I think it should unless the CFO LiuHua or CEO Toe were dumb enough to overlook the mistake, then this Nav could be crudely reverse engineered with the 3Q RMB devaluation against SGD + new NPL provisions to give a 3Q NPAT $61m. @emailpeter had made a crude 4Q NPAT projection of $55m with a haircut assumption using 3Q $61m as reference, noting on the loss of income on the affected NPL 777m portion. FY22 NPAT was projected at $252m, higher than YFH/CIMB prevailing guided NPAT $220m.    I think the projection is reasonable, provided 1) the nav  1.09223@3744m  o/s is indeed valid, 2) no more new and huge provision from the NPL. @emailpeter estimated the dividend payout using a 90% SBB assumption, which was also what I did earlier before the SBB was abruptly stopped on 31oct2022. I tend to have a different view now. Treasury shares are excluded from EPS and DPS so EPS and DPS will increase accordingly. However, I am not sure when is the cut off point now because FY22 result is contingent on 31Dec2022 where EPS will be declared based on the shares o/s as at 31Dec2022. YFH may continue to SBB until 1 month before FY22 release in mid~late Feb or early Mar, and then SBB again until AGM as long as the max is still not reached. Book close for dividend payout is in mid~late Apr. The shares o/s as at 31Dec2022 and Book close in Apr2023 are very different. I tend to think now that the cut off to determine the shares o/s for dividend payouts is likely set at 31Dec2022. Since YFH has not rebooted SBB for unkown reason(s) after releasing the 3Q, I would now conservatively assume no more SBB until probably the commencement of Jan 2023. I would use 3691m o/s or 66% SBB as the cut off for dividend payout. EPS = $252m / 3691 = 0.0683 DPS = 0.6827 * 0.40 = $0.0273, rounded off to $0.027. At current price ~0.34, yield = 7.9% Now, if we assume a very bad scenario such that  there are more nasty huge NPL provisions to add such that YFH just breakeven in 4Q, then FY22 NPAT would be 136m + 61m = $197m EPS = $197 / 3691 = 0.0534 DPS = 0.0534 * 0.4 = 0.0213, rounded off to $0.021 At current price ~0.34, yield = 6.2% And further, if we are even more conserative, we can take a 50% cut on the re-engineered 3Q NPAT 61m. EPS = [ 136 + ( 61 * 0.5 ) ] / 3691 = 0.0451 DPS = 0.0451 * 0.4 = 0.018 At current price ~0.34, yield = 5.3% So you could be looking at a DPS of between 0.18 to 0.27.  Again, I would like to reiterate here one more time that if the stated Nav 1.0923 by YFH is validly referenced to 3744m o/s, then I think DPS 0.27 is a reasonable expectation. UMIST13      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 12:11) Posted: Hello Volvo , thanks for the good analysis. So what is the expected dividend ? Thanks
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	08-Dec-2022 17:40        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That why Ren YL might make offer to absorb both hedge funds stake, effectively removing shorting activities on stock. When they don had stake in company, they basically exit hedging since cost of financing would shoot up next year due to higher rate. Investors would demand 2-3x stock borrowed rate as fixed deposit jumped by same amt in 2022. See if YZJFH would cancel 250+mil treasury stock to improve financial ratio. Burning 99mil to push up stock price let see if they got the resolve. Need full year result next year to check if T.rowes exit since they don report any more. volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 03:51) Posted: Correction : I noticed an update from Vanguard on 31oct in simplywall.st at 97m. The previous update was in 31aug at 95m, so Vanguard actually bought 2m more in Oct. Vanguard is still in. TR sold down from 295m to 194m from early Jun to mid Jul, effectively removed themselves as SSH and no longer need to report to sgx on their further transactions. I read this massive parring down wirhin a short time an intention to exit. The 295m down to 194m selling wave had hammered the price ~20% down from 0.50+ to 0.40, and the selldown continued (likely with the balance 194m on a major basis or in full) and ended in mid Aug at 0.35. sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 02:24) Posted: Don think the hedge fund exit yet, if u check daily transaction there always only 1-2 big sellers, real sell or short I guess the latter. Those that want to sell already did so in June when SSB announced. Current down trend was being engineering by hedge funds to force transparency on the debt investment. Once they satisfied , they would cover their long short.  Chinese companies always have owners owning more than 50% if they not in STI component index. The funny thing is everyday where got so many sellers and alway concentrated on a few big trade. The q on both side also fake, any  push either the rest of bid give way . take for example there 8000 bid 8000sell, 1000 buy came in rest of 7k cave in and move to next higher bid. Only need 1000 to move the needle not the fake q u see. It risky if 1 big buyer came and gobble everything on 10000 block, can lose lot of money if shorting. YZJFH classic example of hedging activities, BB forcing down stock price to force management to move in their direction. By the way hedge fund can short for very long period of time on borrowed stock till requested to return it. Very craze on YZJFH as it got more cash than what stock price reflect with zero liabilities. Anyway SSB not on today so maybe another news incoming this week.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
volvo125 Master	08-Dec-2022 16:15        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	I would like to reiterate here that, if the latest Nav 1.0923 stated by YFH is referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022 ( ie, not the old 3937m as at 30Jun2022, or 3951m that CIMB was still strangely using, or the latest 3691m that was last registered as on 31Oct2022 ), which I think it should unless the CFO LiuHua or CEO Toe were dumb enough to overlook the mistake, then this Nav could be crudely reverse engineered with the 3Q RMB devaluation against SGD + new NPL provisions to give a 3Q NPAT $61m. @emailpeter had made a crude 4Q NPAT projection of $55m with a haircut assumption using 3Q $61m as reference, noting on the loss of income on the affected NPL 777m portion. FY22 NPAT was projected at $252m, higher than YFH/CIMB prevailing guided NPAT $220m.    I think the projection is reasonable, provided 1) the nav  1.09223@3744m  o/s is indeed valid, 2) no more new and huge provision from the NPL. @emailpeter estimated the dividend payout using a 90% SBB assumption, which was also what I did earlier before the SBB was abruptly stopped on 31oct2022. I tend to have a different view now. Treasury shares are excluded from EPS and DPS so EPS and DPS will increase accordingly. However, I am not sure when is the cut off point now because FY22 result is contingent on 31Dec2022 where EPS will be declared based on the shares o/s as at 31Dec2022. YFH may continue to SBB until 1 month before FY22 release in mid~late Feb or early Mar, and then SBB again until AGM as long as the max is still not reached. Book close for dividend payout is in mid~late Apr. The shares o/s as at 31Dec2022 and Book close in Apr2023 are very different. I tend to think now that the cut off to determine the shares o/s for dividend payouts is likely set at 31Dec2022. Since YFH has not rebooted SBB for unkown reason(s) after releasing the 3Q, I would now conservatively assume no more SBB until probably the commencement of Jan 2023. I would use 3691m o/s or 66% SBB as the cut off for dividend payout. EPS = $252m / 3691 = 0.0683 DPS = 0.6827 * 0.40 = $0.0273, rounded off to $0.027. At current price ~0.34, yield = 7.9% Now, if we assume a very bad scenario such that  there are more nasty huge NPL provisions to add such that YFH just breakeven in 4Q, then FY22 NPAT would be 136m + 61m = $197m EPS = $197 / 3691 = 0.0534 DPS = 0.0534 * 0.4 = 0.0213, rounded off to $0.021 At current price ~0.34, yield = 6.2% And further, if we are even more conserative, we can take a 50% cut on the re-engineered 3Q NPAT 61m. EPS = [ 136 + ( 61 * 0.5 ) ] / 3691 = 0.0451 DPS = 0.0451 * 0.4 = 0.018 At current price ~0.34, yield = 5.3% So you could be looking at a DPS of between 0.18 to 0.27.  Again, I would like to reiterate here one more time that if the stated Nav 1.0923 by YFH is validly referenced to 3744m o/s, then I think DPS 0.27 is a reasonable expectation. UMIST13      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 12:11) Posted: Hello Volvo , thanks for the good analysis. So what is the expected dividend ? Thanks
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MambaFinancial89 Veteran	08-Dec-2022 14:43        MambaFinancial89 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I am really curious now as to when SBBs will resume given the latest string of announcements. Hope they are holding back as the Company perhaps may have found some higher ROI opportunities and deployed capital accordingly. Alternatively, hoping that they are not conducting additional SBBs as further material announcements or new developments are in the works. They may possibly have stopped just to outright conserve cash amid the market conditions and exposure to China. Could be anyone' s guess.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
UMIST13 Member	08-Dec-2022 12:11        UMIST13 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hello Volvo , thanks for the good analysis. So what is the expected dividend ? Thanks
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
volvo125 Master	08-Dec-2022 03:51        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Correction : I noticed an update from Vanguard on 31oct in simplywall.st at 97m. The previous update was in 31aug at 95m, so Vanguard actually bought 2m more in Oct. Vanguard is still in. TR sold down from 295m to 194m from early Jun to mid Jul, effectively removed themselves as SSH and no longer need to report to sgx on their further transactions. I read this massive parring down wirhin a short time an intention to exit. The 295m down to 194m selling wave had hammered the price ~20% down from 0.50+ to 0.40, and the selldown continued (likely with the balance 194m on a major basis or in full) and ended in mid Aug at 0.35. sgng123      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 02:24) Posted: Don think the hedge fund exit yet, if u check daily transaction there always only 1-2 big sellers, real sell or short I guess the latter. Those that want to sell already did so in June when SSB announced. Current down trend was being engineering by hedge funds to force transparency on the debt investment. Once they satisfied , they would cover their long short.  Chinese companies always have owners owning more than 50% if they not in STI component index. The funny thing is everyday where got so many sellers and alway concentrated on a few big trade. The q on both side also fake, any  push either the rest of bid give way . take for example there 8000 bid 8000sell, 1000 buy came in rest of 7k cave in and move to next higher bid. Only need 1000 to move the needle not the fake q u see. It risky if 1 big buyer came and gobble everything on 10000 block, can lose lot of money if shorting. YZJFH classic example of hedging activities, BB forcing down stock price to force management to move in their direction. By the way hedge fund can short for very long period of time on borrowed stock till requested to return it. Very craze on YZJFH as it got more cash than what stock price reflect with zero liabilities. Anyway SSB not on today so maybe another news incoming this week.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	08-Dec-2022 02:24        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don think the hedge fund exit yet, if u check daily transaction there always only 1-2 big sellers, real sell or short I guess the latter. Those that want to sell already did so in June when SSB announced. Current down trend was being engineering by hedge funds to force transparency on the debt investment. Once they satisfied , they would cover their long short.  Chinese companies always have owners owning more than 50% if they not in STI component index. The funny thing is everyday where got so many sellers and alway concentrated on a few big trade. The q on both side also fake, any  push either the rest of bid give way . take for example there 8000 bid 8000sell, 1000 buy came in rest of 7k cave in and move to next higher bid. Only need 1000 to move the needle not the fake q u see. It risky if 1 big buyer came and gobble everything on 10000 block, can lose lot of money if shorting. YZJFH classic example of hedging activities, BB forcing down stock price to force management to move in their direction. By the way hedge fund can short for very long period of time on borrowed stock till requested to return it. Very craze on YZJFH as it got more cash than what stock price reflect with zero liabilities. Anyway SSB not on today so maybe another news incoming this week.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Maxgrow68 Elite	08-Dec-2022 00:38        Maxgrow68 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Right and Kind. Choose Kind then you are always Right !"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, agreed with your thoughts..Thanks vm indeed...for sharing.... volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 00:22) Posted: If you check the YFH chart closely, you will see 2 very major selldown phase that are both persistent and violent. The first wave was a bigger wave that started in mid Jun and then ended in mid Aug with a euphoric 1st all time low at 0.35. This was the TR 295m dumping wave that shorties were also riding along. The second wave was a smaller wave but much more violent because the earlier TR295m dumping had left a lot of excess supply pressure. This was the Vanguard93m dumping wave and shorties were taking the full advantage of Vanguard dumping momentum plus the still lingering excess supply pressure left over by TR295m. This wave started in end Sep and ended in late Oct with another euphoric 2nd all time low at 0.31.  I believe TR and Vanguard had already fully exited YFH during the past months capital flight wave due to the accelerating appreciation of USD. As for RenYL, I believe his shares purchase would also likely be symbolic and as a gesture to instill confidence and nothing more, just like Toe, Sutat, Chua and ICH. RenYL certainly knows SGX very well in terms of the many listco low valuations (YZJ was certainly one them bullied by shortists prior to the spin off), low liquidity, .... etc. But he still chose to list YFH in SG. And he was careful to stay well below the 30% holding in both YZJ and YFH. I believe his choice to list both YZJ and YFH in SG are strategic in nature as both coy would likely get far much better valuations and liquidity in SH, SZ or HK exchange. He is also unlikely to take YFH private, not just the massive amount of funds he needs to top up his 23% to 30% and then mounting a further massive LBO to takeover, being a newly privatised Chinese asset coy will immediately cut off all his offshore expansion plan. His assets will be locked up in China, which is probably not what he wants. You have a point in speculating that borrowers were holding off paying interests due to the covid uncertainty. So the progressive loosenig of covid restrictions and controls might improve the NPL situation ..... sgng123      ( Date: 07-Dec-2022 22:17) Posted: Not much time for people to buy low, old Ren most likely would act and significant increase his stake. buying over T.Rowe price ass and vanguard group stake combine 4.9% + 2% would remove hedging activities by these 2 hedge fund. Volume would drop while share buyback would had bigger impact on stock price. Just check other china based stock , the trade volume very low and only need 2-3m transaction to move 5%. Anyway the increased NPL not much concern as china borrower hold off paying interest due to zero COVID uncertainty. China earlier put out new measures to minimise lockdown and testing . Reason why YZJFH scoop so low all thks to T Rowe and vanguard hedging activities.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me

                                                         First   < Newer   9821-9840 of 10237   Older>   Last