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YZJ Fin Hldg
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YZJFH - potentially rewarding
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pasttime
Supreme |
28-Nov-2022 19:33
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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only listed for a few months how can say long. it take about 2 years to build business in a new country to become profitable. |
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pkli899
Supreme |
28-Nov-2022 19:29
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Many are long but frustrated la. Dejected in fact, until lost cool & started shouting bad stuff. |
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soeteono
Senior |
28-Nov-2022 19:20
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Just saying the fact , with all these " positive " news , price still heading south . Maybe more than positive
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Segarvale
Senior |
28-Nov-2022 19:16
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I dun short stock la..i only long...easier to short indexes...fast money in and out..few hundreds dollar kopi money every few days..hehe..sometime big rout easily few thousands..anyway, not for the weak heart..so you dun recommend short la...then stay positive if you are long in this counter..whats the point of grumbling when good news pop? Simply dun understand..😂
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-Nov-2022 19:02
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Chill currently YZJFH undervalued by a lot and not much retail interest. More news incoming through hopefully they can clarify on future cash allocation. Now only got plan but no concrete action, everyone waiting.... |
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soeteono
Senior |
28-Nov-2022 18:58
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Did I say short ? you shorted ?
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Segarvale
Senior |
28-Nov-2022 18:54
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How you know market is slapping the share price because of these decisions? You mean appointment of big name can short? Short at what price let us know then we can profit together. Timeline as well. Positive news leh...no meh? Scratch my head..
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soeteono
Senior |
28-Nov-2022 18:36
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Big name big gun but share price is slapping these decisions
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
28-Nov-2022 18:13
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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Nov 28: Yangzijiang Financial Appoints Ex-EDBI Managing Partner to Head the Groups Direct Investments, Global market Ex-China Third press release this week. Hard to fault management for not keeping retail investors informed... |
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-Nov-2022 17:53
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Don think any retail load in during this period, all waiting for business update. YZJ shipping had announced last week but no actual financial statistics. The approval for LPS $10b RMB and team up with temasek sub for PE would speed up YZJFH diversion to sg. Most likely the business update would inform us, most probably the cash transfer get speed up, be patient for stock price. Currently market only price in 44% of YZJFH asset, 56% $2.528b left out. Work the math current market accepted NTA only less than half asset. Half NTA. Only $0.5 so current share price within valuation 0.7x. When more money flow into sg, stock price would reflect it. $2.25b DI expected to mature next year if YZJFH decide to 50/50 split the mature DI between sg and china, stock price most likely recover to listing range. YZJFH heavily influenced by how much and how fast money 50% get deployed in sg, Investment in china mostly used to pay dividend so valuation for asset ignor. Stock price could be lower if not for SSB as only 480m in sg and free cash $1.25b in china. End of this year another 500m would be transfer to sg if according to road map, would most likely boost and stabilise stock at $0.4X. Market really hate China DI due to anti china rhetoric in western countries. |
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Segarvale
Senior |
28-Nov-2022 14:55
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Well, if there is a 3Q update, likely will be a summary of how things has progressed such as partnership with heliconia capital, securement of liquidity pool scheme and the list of big names appointed onboard after the half yearly results (actual exceeds analyst's expectation). We got all these through announcements, good enough isn't it😉 . No bad news is considered good news mah..Used to be 2 announcements, half and full financial results then come covid become compulsory business update then now not compulsory..very luan...haha..dun understand why some good announcements people can see it as a red flag..probably they are not accounting trained..company cannot have 100% perfect internal controls, thats where auditors come in. Even auditors may not uncover the flaws, like enron case as there is always an inherent risk involved. Another 29 months to 3 years from listing. Very fast one..multi-bagger for those who got in at 31c. 34c bid now at point of writing..still a handsome reward for LT holders, kopi drinker can only smell...
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HVRRVH
Elite |
28-Nov-2022 13:31
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Totally agree. Actually why trade SGX market if trading is the objective? The liquidity is pathetic. The only hope in SGX market is to invest in reits and some fundamentally good stocks. Of course, I think YZJF is one and have invested a fair bit. In SGX market, some also like to shout ' S chip' and follow by all kind of insinuations whenever a china counter is facing upward price resistance. But I have doubled my investment with China Sunsine and hope to repeat it with YZJF [-5% so far] and YZJS [+52% so far].
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Hawkeye
Master |
28-Nov-2022 13:21
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All those who yell scream cry are those trying to make quick buck. When it come to Yangzijiang SB or FH same, they dont care about share price, they will pick when its low the diminish enough free float share then they will push it up. Yangzijiang always operate cash rich listing in Singapore are only for name and ride on Singapore reputation as a trust worthy Governance to get jobs. Investor had to put money in and wait. Then reward will come. Anyway dividend collect is more than enough to cover cost of holding and even margin interest.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
28-Nov-2022 13:13
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SGX is a drifter lah, like trying to find out what' s best to do. Lunch break, no lunch break, lunch break.... 1000=1lot... 100=1lot, pre market matching... closed market matching and of course, doing away with mandatory quartely report. Dont' want to fault them for trying but they should not list inferior stocks, what' s the point of 600-800 stocks but almost all trading at penny. We should have a reit index and ST index, and both indices should have around 100 stocks max combined lol. Well, pointless ranting aside, let' s just wait and see if all funds that wish to exit have done so already or not. Price action should be weak in the near term regardless, as China facing covid chaos now.
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volvo125
Master |
28-Nov-2022 00:58
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@Segarvale, not sure yet until probably past 1st week of Dec. YZJ had released its 3Q brief update so YFH will highly likely do the same, even though the update could be as washed down as YZJ with no top line and bottom line numbers. If YFH indeed skip the 3Q update, then the management is indeed low EQ and touching on the raw nerves of many Long investors. The SGX non mandatory 1Q and 3Q reporting is a very stupid policy that is doing discredit to the public investors. No investor in the right frame of mind will like to see his investments no sound no picture for 6 long months. @HVRRVH, I believe both TR and Vanguard are only interested to invest in the Ship building business fronted by YZJ, not the DI and Assets Mgt business in YFH that is similar to their line of business and was involuntarily distributed to them due to the spin off. TR (AUM USD1.6T) and Vanguard (AUM USD8.1T) are among the biggest US based funds and assets managers themselves so their disinterests to invest in YFH, a very small asset manager in their perspective with only AUM SGD4.6B is understandable. Capital flights due to the persistent USD appreciation is another strong and timely reason for the US angmoh funds to exit YFH. EDBI investment was highly symbolic and long term in nature due to YZJ pledged Maritime R& D center investment in SG over the course of next few years so I do not think EDBI will sell the YZJ and YFH shares after the mandatory bond conversion. AWI was setup by some unnamed senior mgt of YZJ to invest (long term, and again symbolic in nature) on both YZJ and YFH prior to the spin off, so again, I do not think AWI will dispose any shares too. Regardless, the combined EDBI+AWI volume is only 37M even if fully disposed, unlike the huge TR (294M) and Vanguard (93m) with a combined volume 387M. |
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Segarvale
Senior |
27-Nov-2022 22:10
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So there is no 3Q update as mentioned in L&T?? That B guy who keep shooting down and said mgmt said got 3Q and then no SBB one, no sound no action..you know who you are la😂 ...anyway, he can just continue his big logic talk..and keep waiting for the results release..hahaha..thanks HVRRVH
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volvo125
Master |
27-Nov-2022 19:31
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This is how I interpret the LPS (Liquidity Pool Scheme) news release on 25 Nov 2022. LPS is a BIG leap forward for YFH. There are generally 3 established ways for YFH to transfer funds out of China to overseas via :- 1. Declaring dividends for payout in SG to shareholders, but this will attract a 5~10% withholding tax from China. This was the only way for YFH until getting this LPS, as QDLP is still pending. 2. QDLP, in which YFH can raise RMB from local institutions and UHNW individuals (eg. family offices) for offshore investments. The Jiangsu authority has awarded YFH the allocation quota but the licence to operate is still pending. Note that this scheme is meant to raise additional funds from the China market (specifically from the Jiangsu Province) for offshore investments that will serve to boost YFH AUM further from its prevailing S$4.6B, and not as a legit avenue to transfer the recycled DI funds out from the current YFH balance sheet for overseas investments. 3. LPS, this will be the primary avenue going forward for YFH to deploy its China funds to overseas investments due to the huge ~S$1.9B quota available, negligible cost as interest expense is eliminated at group level, and the opportunity to centrally facilitate and ease cash management and movement because of this &ldquo flexible&rdquo intra coy loan treatment. 4. There is a 4th way in which YFH could only use once, which was at the onset during the spin off listing in an overseas Exchange (SGX) when S$480M was approved by the China government for the overseas target spin off investment. China has very strict capital control so prior to getting LPS, the RMB cash in China and SGD/USD cash in SG could not be synergistically deployed together to fund overseas investment. With LPS approved, YFH could now mobilise up to ~S$1.9B to SG at will with negligible cost. What this mean are :- a. YFH is still subject to China strict capital control but is now up to a huge ~S$1.9B quota (this quota likely excluding the S$480M already in SG, which is certainly not an intra coy loan). With this ~S$1.9B that can be freely deployed at will by YFH for overseas investment in the form of intra coy loans, the RMB cash reserve in China and the overseas investments now has established a " dynamic bridge" or a link, thus allowing this so called centralised management of cash in the form of intra coy loans up to ~S$1.9B. b. As long as YFH SG (or the overseas subsidiaries) continues to pay interests on the intra coy loans to YFH China, the subsidiaries can keep or retire the loans at will at their disposal for their investment purposes. These interest payments are left pocket to right pocket so the cost to YFH is net zero at group level due to eliminations. c. Without LPS and come 2Q2023 when YFH needs to transfer fund from China to pay dividends for FY22 performance, YFH or shareholders will need to bear a 5~10% withholding tax. However, with the funds already in YFH SG in the form of intra coy loans funding projects that are making profits or as working capitals, the payment of dividends could be disbursed in SG which is at Tier 1 taxation, meaning no further taxation on dividends. d. LPS is a big leap forward because YFH no longer need to wait its previously guided 3~5 years to hit the 50% offshore target due likely to the stringent China capital control. The ~S$1.9B quota is more than enough to lift YFH offshore investment to 50% immediately, assuming all these appropriate investments are available, duly appraised, and are ready for funds deployment. YFH revenues and incomes projections going forward in FY23 and beyond can and will now be greatly accelerated as long as Toe and his men in SG could bring in the appropriate duly appraised projects, no longer restricted by the fund limit transfer restrictions from China. e. At the eventual 50% offshore target in which the pace can now be accelerated, the income generated through the YFH SG portion will be taxed at a much lower rate of 17% (instead of 25% in China). And the future cash flows generated by YFH SG in SG could certainly be deployed to pay dividends to avoid the 5~10% withholding tax from China (assuming LPS in the form of intra coy loans is strictly project specific disbursement and could not be disbursed out to subsidiaries generally) Again, this is how I read YFH going forward. I am not a trained accountant so any Bro who is CPA trained ( such as emailpeter &hellip ) may be able to validate some of my observations &hellip such as are these intra coy loans likely disbursed on specific projects only or generally, the theoretical possibility of paying dividend from SG to do away with the China withholding tax &hellip |
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HVRRVH
Elite |
27-Nov-2022 12:08
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Other than the point that institution sold because lack of mandate/free money and not because YZJF lack of fundamental, just to add another minor point. I think it is not by chance that SBB stopped, I think the management know something, perhaps big guns have finished selling. They cannot come out and shout ' big guns finished liao loh' so they said it is strategised move in view of 10% cap (To stress again: They never said it was due to 3Q update, they are not compulsory, don' t know where the idea arises since it was clear from L& T event that they never commit to a 3Q update).
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HVRRVH
Elite |
27-Nov-2022 11:47
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It is slightly more than 6 months now since YZJF spinned out from YZJS. In the stated period, the share price has gone from 69 cents all the way down to lowest 31 cents. In the meanwhile, TROW seemed to have exited from their 7% holding. It seemed that afterall, TROW has no mandate to invest in company such as YZJF, they are still a big shareholder in YZJS as of now. On hindsight, 7% exit is very significant, if I were to know for sure such event was going to happen, I know I have at least 3-6 months to short. We will be kidding ourselves that only people in TROW knew they will be exiting. Indeed, even only people in TROW knew about the intended exit, there was no garantee that news won' t leak. What I am trying to say, in short, is that from the get go, YZJF already facing uphill task in term of price appreciation since a 7% shareholder had to exit. That bring us to next question, is there any likeminded big shareholder(s) that need to exit YZJF owing to lack of investing mandate? I think volvo125 mentioned about Vanguard. I am not too sure about its holding. However, EDBI (An investment unit of EDB) and Alexandrian Worldwide do hold 18 576 360 shares each of YZJF at the point of listing (total 37 174 720). They received the shares as they jointly provided 50m convertible bond to YZJS, and the bond had been converted to shares on 19.4.22 when YZJS issued them 37 174 720 YZJS shares. Because of the spinoff, they also received the same amount of YZJF shares. Both EDBI and Alexandrain had undertook not to sell within 6 months any of the YZJF shares (source: YZJS announcement dated 4.3.22), which of course, had lapsed by now. I am not sure about Alexandrain Worldwide, but will EDBI holding on to YZJF? They have converted their bond to YZJS shares at $1.345 (source: YZJS announcement dated 4.3.22 and 19.4.22) and right now, they already in the money and it can be said that their investment is with YZJS so why would they keep YZJF shares, which they paractically obtained at no cost at all? Therefore, we can see the tremendous downward price pressure YZJF has been facing. Fact: TROW sold out. Likelihood: Vanguard selling/sold out EDBI selling/sold out, maybe Alexandrian also selling. No wonder 69 cents all the way to 31 cents! In this aspect, it seemed YZJF could have done better. How? I don' t know becasue I don' t think they can ask TROW or Vanguard to moratorise their shares for any time period. Only EDBI and Alexandrain they can as part of the bond conditions. In summary, it is likely that all big institutions that have no mandate to hold YZJF has exited from 69 cents to 31 cents. This coincide with price showing strength from base of 31 cents and is consolidating now. We also know for the fact that in every selling, there was buying. So who bought TROW' s sale, who bought from 69 cents to 31 cents? Other than the announced insiders buying and SBB, who else? And were those buying enough to ' cover' the sales by the aforementioned parties? The good news in all these big instiution selling YZJF was the fact that obviously, they sold becasue they were either, 1-no mandate, 2-free money, or both. In conclusion, we should see YZJF continue to consolidate at current level for a while and afterwhich, it shoud start to rise. |
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volvo125
Master |
26-Nov-2022 22:00
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If RenYL does buy, it would likely be a few millions shares at most as a " symbolic gesture" to instill confidence, much like what Toe, Sutat, Chua and ICH did previously .... nothing more. RenYL certainly won' t be spending tens of millions of dollars of his own money buying up 100m or even more shares unless he has clear intention to cross the 30% threshold to trigger the takeover code. So the key issue that all the investors should really be concerned with is still very much what happens when the 10% treasury shares limit is reached, which RenYL had openly declared that he would seek a fresh shareholders mandate to continue the SBB. Now, the 10% treasury shares limit (at all time, not just one year) is stipulated by the Company Act which in turn guides the SGX buyback rules. So in order to renew the SBB, either partially or fully, the 10% treasury shares already in the vault must first be " spent" , either partially or fully, in order to release the quota back to well below the 10% against the float so that SBB can commence again. Treasury shares could generally be spent in various ways such as paying dividends, employee benefits, M& A, shares cancellations ...etc. However, in the case of YFH where its share price is very heavily discounted at just ~30%+ NAV, only shares cancellation makes economic sense and consistent in enhancing shareholders values. Using heavily discounted treasury shares to pursue all other options will only serve to destroy shareholders values while also at the same time put the coy share price at further risk of more erosion due to public shareholders encashing the distributed shares in lieu of dividends in the open market. So based on RenYL openly declared commitment to renew SBB, shares cancellation is implicitly implied and definitely on the table in due course.
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